We can have WW3 not escalate to a nuclear war, it would mean we enter a conflict, but the frontlines stagnate before we pull out the sunshine. Needless to say, I don't think its very likely but its still possible.
Anyway, we have some interesting options here:
[]Avoid Escalation: The direct use of warships to protect merchant shipping formally and forcing through any blockade could be taken as close enough to an act of war to trigger an actual war. It would not be the best geopolitical decision and would force the alternative routing of arms to Algerian partisans, but it likely would not compromise the entire effort. Further Seymonov and the various doves have advocated for the path as they believe there is no reason to risk ending the world over a secondary colonial conflict that France is effectivly losing.
This would be a unforced L, if we let the French and US bully us around as they please, not only this would lead to huge political losses as seen by Podgorny's performance last turn, but it would likely further empower the hawks. Humphrey is gone, we are going to be pushed around more, and we need to get used to it and push back a little too.
[]Send a Force: Pushing through the illegitimate French blockade with a significant number of fleet assets is going to be the best compromise to keep supply lines functional. The French are deeply unlikely to start shooting at a full Soviet-flagged force unless their operational posture has been significantly misjudged. The Union is conducting free international trade and any action by French forces would be in flagrant violation of the very international law that they claim to uphold. If a naval engagement does start, significant casualties are expected from the range of contact but as long as the Americans are not involved that is not expected to pose a significant problem. (Chance of Nuclear War)
Just basic bitch freedom of navigation exercises, the US does it all the time around China and there's been no nuclear war yet. So am not too worried, I think that the chances of this actually escalating too much are relatively low. This is a nice middle ground between do nothing and give Gadaffi free reign over Mediterranean shipping. Speaking of which:
[]Allow Libyian Self-Defense: Gadafi is not reliable but he can be squarely pointed at the French more than anyone else in the region. Transferring several batteries of anti-shipping missiles for the protection of coastal waters along with more formal ties and basing of Soviet warships will show a strong commitment towards security in the region. Daring France to respond will put the initiative in their corner but that in itself is likely safe given the significant stress placed on the French government. Current domestic policies will force the French regime to do something to hold its dominance all while pressure across West Africa increases for the total expulsion of French regime elements. (Chance of WW3) (Chance of Nuclear War)
This is not a great ideia imo, Gadaffi famously declared a "line of death" across its territorial waters and was involved in several skirmishes with the Americans in the Gulf of Sidra in
1981,
1986 and in Tobruk in
89. Giving him the tools so he can actually strike against a US carrier seems a bit too much, and he is famously light handed with weapons systems, so he might even transfer them if we are unlucky.
Overall
[]Send a Force seems like the best option for us.
Also, lmao at us flubbing
Minimal Ecological Standards, surely this won't bite us in the ass in the future! Anyway, let us take a look at each of the options we have to deal with this issue...
[]Popularize the Report: Industry advocates have given every excuse necessary for further accelerating development in an easy-to-defend framework. Continuing with the excuse provides something of cover for the ministry when inevitable ecological consequences crop up and would allow a further expansion of industry. If in the next plan, radical ecological measures are taken this will unquestionably make them cheaper both politically and economically.
This is playing along with the SoEs for now, and waiting for some major incident like the Volga catching on fire to take decisive action and implement stronger standards than we could now while blaming them.
[]Reform another Commission: If a commission has produced erroneous results one can be formed from a series of academics that are at least neutral towards industrial concerns. These would effectively be raised from university students to take a second more impartial look. As this would be less known scientists taking a view, and worse student scientists their line is unlikely to be listened to until something inevitably goes wrong but a more accurate policy picture can be made.
This is us just forming a rival comission with our own personnel that can take a more honest look, it keeps the ball in our hand but I think its unlikely to result in much for now when more growth minded politicians can just point at the other reports. A relatively safe option, though it would make the SoEs a bit pissy.
[]Throw the Matter to the Supreme Soviet: Several representatives are willing to agitate strongly for their districts having major ecological issues. Consistent discoloration and downstream combustion near Saratov along with water problems near sites of intense petrochemical development are just a small factor. Significant farming runoff areas have caused significant issues for urban water supplies with low pressure and filtration interruptions consistently resulting. It's unlikely to produce massive results but getting the Supreme Soviet arguing about it will at least force a compromise.
Now this is the option more likely to yield results now, but it would give the initiative to the SupSov on this issue, meaning our political rivals can use environmental issues as a tool of criticism towards the Ministry. Politically, this is the most risky option I wager.
Keeping in mind, that well, regulations are going to make our projects more expensive. Delaying is viable if we want to squeeze off some more growth this plan, obviously this comes at a cost to the environment, but well, that's just how it is. I don't think there is a obvious choice here.