So to be clear, on each roll we get d8-1, then d8-2, then d8-3, and so on, techs, and if we ever roll a zero or negative number the succession stops and we get nothing more?
Hm. In that case, the expectation result on further Scrin techs is... um. Lots of contingent probability...
[Does arithmetic to the sound of
No Mercy, my brain needs something like this anyway]
.125(0) + .875[4 + .25(0) + .75[3.5 + .375(0) + .625[3 + .5(0) + .5[2.5 + .625(0) + .375[2 + .75(0) + .25[1.5 + .875(0) + .125(1)]]]]]]
0 + .875[4 + 0 + .75[3.5 + 0 + .625[3 + 0 + .5[2.5 + 0 + .375[2 + 0 + .25[1.5 + 0 + .125]]]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + .5[2.5 + .375[2 + .25[1.5 + .125]]]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + .5[2.5 + .375[2 + .25[1.625]]]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + .5[2.5 + .375[2 + .40625]]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + .5[2.5 + .375[2.40625]]]]]
(rounding to fewer decimal places to keep numbers manageable)
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + .5[2.5 + .9023]]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + .5[3.4023]]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[3 + 1.7012]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + .625[4.7012]]]]
.875[4 + .75[3.5 + 2.938]]]]
.875[4 + .75[6.438]]]]
.875[4 + 4.8275]
.875[8.8275]
7.724
So... yeah. Reality check, everyone, if
@Ithillid goes through with this mechanic, our average expected number of Scrin techs is gonna be about "seven or eight more." We might luck out and get twenty or so, we might roll a 1 next time and get nothing, but the most likely results cluster around something in the high single digits.
The odds of us getting the five techs we need for a full TCN, out of
ninety-four remaining Scrin technologies, are therefore... uh, not good.
...
One thing,
@Ithillid , is that I agree with the basic logic of this kind of mechanic (though I don't know if the dice are balanced for the way you expect things to be and intended them to be) when it comes to Scrin tech. Because we have a fixed pool of Scrin salvage, and are unlikely to have any more in the foreseeable future, and there's only so much we can learn from it.
However,
Nod salvage, intel, and captured hardware is going to be constantly coming in to our forces because we never stop fighting Nod and they never stop doing stuff. I'm not so sure this is a good model for the way Nod research is handled, assuming you're handling it that way.