My thoughts.

Giving CapGoods to industry: Good. Doing PMM: Eh, but if it means a much smaller chance of seeing something like a blue zone vein mine being erased from the map via liquid tib detonation, I'm ok with it. Just... pick one. I refuse to support a plan that does both in the same turn.

I'm in the camp that believes that many people are a bit hand wringing over the fears of nuclear strikes with Karachi. There's lots of indications that would lean against nukes targeting civilian areas. But at this point, monsoon season is either starting or about to start and SADN will have phase 1 coming fully online by the time monsoon season is over, so there's no reason to not just wait to go until Q4. We have 2-3 Planned Cities we can use as a benchmark for progress points, and the thread bean counters seem to be confident that we can make it fine from that point.

I don't mind overkilling Shala since we need every turn we can get due to the overambitious 20k pop goal we got stuck with. Overkill the thing, get next gen/phase stations/bases available, and let's really get this avalanche of people into space started. Which means I'd prefer spaceport bay to worked on with a good chance of completion. Other than that, not sure I have a clear opinion of bay focus for the rest of the dice.

North Boston. It's a plan goal, and we've been letting it gather dust for way too long. I'm not going to ask for a heavy focus on it this turn, but there better be dice on it. We've let Nuuk linger too, but it's not a Plan Goal, so it can wait.

Military-wise... I'm not really happy with the idea of slamming out more development projects after we completed a number of them. If they're covered by DeptMunitions, I'd be a bit more okay. And at some point, we need to start DeptRefits. Maybe 1-2 dice a turn on GFZA to have that turning over in the background since we need to build 4 more of them? Oh, and finish the Islands deployment.

Tib... I'm good with leaving RZ ops off and working more on the IHG plan needs this turn, whether new refineries for that Plan Goal, or continuing refits for the other Plan Goal. Though, I don't feel like Deep glaciers are really an added strain on ZOCOM since the RZBOs drove right up to the glaciers.

Agriculture. 2 dice Reforestation, 2 dice Lab Meat, don't care about the other two dice. That ought to get us halfway to the Plan Goal for Reforestation Prep, and a 54% chance of the last ConGood we need from Agri.

--

Something to note - while we were net 0 on Labor last turn, we did complete the Uni upgrade program, which has an effect on Labor outputs. So we might end up back Labor+ in a turn or two.
 
Shock labor penalties or just paying a small political penalty for not completing the promise this plan (esp. if we do put more than the expected 16 dice into it) just aren't all that concerning.

Compare that against possibly having Al-Isfahani nuking several of our cities? They're downright insignificant.
Comparing those two risks is non-trivial. One is extremely high impact, but fairly low likelihood. The other is high impact but becomes rather likely if we were to shock it.
We shouldn't overlook the risks of rushing a construction project (inherently dangerous) in a potential warzone (inherently dangerous) in difficult terrain (inherently dangerous) that is also badly contaminated with tiberium (inherently dangerous).
The loss of life and resources should Karachi get nuked into oblivion is still extreme. Rushing the project seems likely to leave it open to that sort of situation.
On the other hand, going too slow could mean that anti-missile defenses are not in place quickly enough either.
I'm not sure how to play this one, but I'd prefer to miss the goal than shock it. :/
I feel like a slowish walk looks less threatening and would be less likely to provoke an act of desperation. If Al-Isfahani uses their nukes, then they must feel like they are defeated, as that is their last weapon.
I am a little bit concerned that the intel we have been given doesn't appear to consider the possibility that Al-Isfahani might have bought armaments from another warlord, or won't get help from another warlord. Expecting this to be a simple matter, except for possible nukes, seems overly optimistic.
 
Al-Isfahnai would have to be extremely foolish to not find our actions an existential threat. He's the Shah of Atom, and nukes are not his weapon of last resort. They're one of his primary tools to accomplish his objectives. He already nuked us before when the stakes were a lot lower, and he will be nuking us again.

At to trying not to spook Al-Isfahani, I don't think there is any world where we can make a naval invasion non-threatening. We're going to effectively conquer all of Pakistan within (at most) two years, and it's going to involve us connecting an entire blue zone to our global logistics network.
-----
From a more conventional perspective, Al-Isfahani definitely bought armaments from other warlords. I'm expecting that he is and will receive covert aid from our treaty signatories , that Krukov will declare war on us once we start the invasion, and that Mehretu will ramp up the intensity of his assassinations. Stahl and Reynaldo may bey openly involved too, but I wouldn't place a bet in either direction.
-----
As to shock labor? We've never seen any real penalties for it. The closest we've come, iirc, was when we were spending 14+ dice on highly interrelated Orbital projects.

Even in my doomerish analysis posted above we'd only be looking at 8 dice a turn. We regularly put 8 dice in ground-scale projects with nary a peep about them being rushed. It just honestly isn't a reasonable concern to be used in the evaluation of whether we should invade Q4 or earlier.
 
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He has options that don't involve evaporating into nuclear fire. If he tries to nuke civilians then he forfeits all of them. That is the last resort option, and it doesn't actually gain him anything, unless he has delusions of martyrdom.

We have thrown 8+ dice at ZOCOM to charge into Red Zones before. That had some large narrative impacts, and large mechanical ones.
Also included a nat 1, so unclear how much of the problem that was caused is from the rush or not. We don't see much about what is impacting our military indicators.
This isn't just a ground-scale project, it is also a military project. Going too hard on military projects almost triggered nuclear war.
The nuances are complicated. :S

Other 'ground-scale projects' that we 'regularly' put 8 dice in? We've only done that once. (Unless I missed one.)
That would be the Harvesting Tendrils that got stolen.
Runners up for expensive funding:
SADN with 7 dice. Planet wide deployment.
Alloy Foundries with 7. Surprisingly no major incidents.
Chicago with 7. Not in a war zone.
Nuuk with 7. 1 crit success.
 
He has options that don't involve evaporating into nuclear fire. If he tries to nuke civilians then he forfeits all of them. That is the last resort option, and it doesn't actually gain him anything, unless he has delusions of martyrdom.

We have thrown 8+ dice at ZOCOM to charge into Red Zones before. That had some large narrative impacts, and large mechanical ones.
Also included a nat 1, so unclear how much of the problem that was caused is from the rush or not. We don't see much about what is impacting our military indicators.
That happened in the context of ZOCOM being painfully strained all the time, with the struggle to keep ZOCOM strong enough to handle our ambitious Red Zone projects being a recurring theme throughout the quest well before that point.

ZOCOM is a particularly tight bottleneck for GDI, and Ithillid has explained how and why this is so in no uncertain terms many times. This reflects problems that are specific to ZOCOM, not to GDI's military as a whole.

This isn't just a ground-scale project, it is also a military project. Going too hard on military projects almost triggered nuclear war.
The nuances are complicated. :S
That wasn't "too many dice was bad." That was "starting the project at all was a mistake because it entailed pushing too close to Nod's nuclear redlines."

If Karachi is a bad idea for similar reasons, we have no realistic choice except "don't undertake the project."

I don't think that conquering much or all of Pakistan more slowly will somehow ensure that al-Isfahani doesn't go nuclear. Either he'll go nuclear earlier in the conflict in an attempt to retaliate and/or drive us back, in which case we can deal with the ensuing war against Nod as best we can and hopefully we'll be forgiven for failure to complete Karachi on account of the giant glowing bomb craters in the megaproject... Or he'll decide that his best bet is accommodation and a peaceful old age, even if it means giving up a sizeable slice of his remaining power base which is already none too large.

He won't just hold off going "wait for it, waiiit for it" indefinitely because we were so genteel as to spend no more than 3-4 dice per turn on the project.
 
I figure there's a good chance he opens this fight with both counter force and counter value strikes as soon as it becomes clear that India isn't going to fight us and we're going through his territory. I figure that might mean a Q1/Q2 strike after a Q4 Karachi start.

If this is the case then having at least phase 1 of SADN finished will be really really important.

Fortunately Karachi is likely to be built with SADN as part of the construction due to us having funded it but even if that doesn't come online fast enough the milimilitary concentration in the area likely incluincludes a lot of defences, our generals aren't daft after all
 
Honestly, I'm with the military on this one. SADN makes our citizens feel better and the thread feel better, but aren't going to stop al-Isfahani if he genuinely fears for his position and safety. If it comes down to it, he has lots of nukes and either has subs, or can trade for some. He can absolutely try to make a nuclear tsunami, and there's not much of anything we can really do about it.
 
I'm still wondering what kind of person is willing to sell nuclear weapons to various organizations with the full knowledge that those organizations plan to use them. Like, that just seems insane to me.

But we have confirmation that the Shah of Atom did exactly that (one of the benefits of the Caravanserai going to war with Mehretu was cutting off the supply of nuclear weapons). And I have to wonder whether Al-Isfahani set up reciprocal agreements with said organization, where they'd be obligate to come to his aid if he was targeted.
 
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I keep forgetting exactly where the warlords are generally based.
If Mehretu wanted to jump in, wouldn't they have to go through the Caravansai?

TBH: I expect India to get nuked, or Al-Isfahani to declare neutrality from Nod. The 'Brotherhood' basically shafted them.
Sure, GDI wants to build a highway through Pakistan, but they will also do a lot of tib abatement, and they aren't stabbing you in the back.
 
I keep forgetting exactly where the warlords are generally based.
If Mehretu wanted to jump in, wouldn't they have to go through the Caravansai?

TBH: I expect India to get nuked, or Al-Isfahani to declare neutrality from Nod. The 'Brotherhood' basically shafted them.
Sure, GDI wants to build a highway through Pakistan, but they will also do a lot of tib abatement, and they aren't stabbing you in the back.
I'm pretty sure Al-Ishfahani is one of those 'true believer, will never stop fighting GDI no matter what' warlords like Gideon was
 
I keep forgetting exactly where the warlords are generally based.
If Mehretu wanted to jump in, wouldn't they have to go through the Caravansai?

TBH: I expect India to get nuked, or Al-Isfahani to declare neutrality from Nod. The 'Brotherhood' basically shafted them.
Sure, GDI wants to build a highway through Pakistan, but they will also do a lot of tib abatement, and they aren't stabbing you in the back.
If you'll forgive a bit of self-promotion, here's a list of the warlords, where they operate from, their first introduction, and a small summary for each:
forums.sufficientvelocity.com

Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

So I thought I'd collate the various profiles we have gotten on NOD commanders. Noted strengths: Stealth, Tactical brilliance, Current operations are unknown Noted weaknesses: NOD leadership, May actually be dead Specialty: ??? Strategy if picked as Kane's right hand: weapons of terror and...
 
If you'll forgive a bit of self-promotion, here's a list of the warlords, where they operate from, their first introduction, and a small summary for each:
forums.sufficientvelocity.com

Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

So I thought I'd collate the various profiles we have gotten on NOD commanders. Noted strengths: Stealth, Tactical brilliance, Current operations are unknown Noted weaknesses: NOD leadership, May actually be dead Specialty: ??? Strategy if picked as Kane's right hand: weapons of terror and...
Thank you. I had forgotten that that existed.
 
[] Draft Plan Q1 2064 Karachi Groundwork
-[] Infrastructure 5/5 Dice +27 bonus 65 R
--[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 6) 108/245: 3 Dice 45 R (99% Chance, 3/5 Median Phase 7)
--[] Emergency Caloric Reclamation Processor Installations (Phase 2) 31/70: 1 Die 10 R (100% Chance)
--[] Post War Housing Refits (Phase 2) 33/150: 1 Die 10 R (26% Chance)
Notes: Rail for reinforcing our infrastructure and getting things ready for Karachi. ECRP to provide a bit of Food security in the event of an emergency and to burn of PS. Continuing the slow and steady Housing Refits for the purpose of expanding our High Quality Housing reserve in the event of refugees, either NOD from Karachi, or internal from nuclear displacement.

-[] Heavy Industry 5/5 + 2 Free Dice +34 bonus 135 R
--[] Second Generation Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 4) 117/270: 2 Dice 40 R (77% Chance)
--[] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) 406/1805: 3 Dice 45 R (3/16 Median)
--[] Second Generation Repulsorplate Factories 365/525: 2 Dice 50 R (72% Chance)
Notes: Continuing to roll out 2CCF to get ahead of the Plant Offlining. 2Gen Repulsors for the tech benefits, and North Boston for Plan Goals.

-[] Light and Chemical Industry 4/4 Dice +29 bonus 120 R
--[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 4) 523/610: 4 Dice 120 R (99% Chance, 4/16 Median Phase 5)
Notes: Bergen to get a bit of extra Energy and Capital Goods, and to work towards getting its Capstone.

-[] Agriculture 6/6 Dice +29 bonus 70 R
--[] Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1) 737/805: 2 Dice 10 R (100% Chance, 2/11 Median Phase 2)
--[] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 2) 60/160: 1 Die 20 R (50% Chance)
--[] Tarberry Plantations (Phase 3) 3/65: 1 Die 10 R (88% Chance, 23% Chance Phase 4)
--[] Laboratory Meat Deployment (Phase 1) 0/170: 2 Dice 30 R (54% Chance)
Notes: Completing Reforestation Prep Phase 1. Rolling out some less directly Food related projects now that Agri Mech is completed, IE Spider Cotton, Tarberries and Lab Meat.

-[] Tiberium 7/7 + 2 Free Dice +39 bonus 250 R
--[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 11) 4/165: 2 Dice 40 R (78% Chance)
--[] Improved Hewlett Gardener Refits (Phase 3) 12/200: 3 Dice 105 R (97% Chance, 2% Chance Phase 4)
--[] Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes 145/180: 1 Die 20 R (100% Chance)
--[] Forgotten Experimentation 0/260: 2 Dice 60 R (10% Chance)
--[] Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 3) 93/175: 1 Die 25 R (73% Chance)
Notes: Vein Mines for additional Income and fighting against the underground Tib. Refits for the Plan Goal. Spikes for PS and for learning about how to build an Improved Inhibitor. Forgotten Experimentation to burn off PS and to work on the Plan D for dealing with Tib long term. And finishing Coordinated Abatement for the RZ mitigation and Plan Goal.

-[] Orbital 7/7 + 2 Free + Erewhon Dice +34 bonus 200 R
--[] High Density Housing 0/295: 3 Dice 60 R (42% Chance)
--[] Spaceport Bay 0/295: 3 Dice 60 R (42% Chance)
--[] GDSS Shala (Phase 5) 868/975: 2 Dice 40 R (99% Chance)
--[] Habitation Bay 0/295: 1 Die + Erewhon 40 R (1.66/3 Median)
Notes: Working on the High Density Bay and the Shala Habitation Bay for the Plan Goal, and the Spaceport bay for the future Lunar project. Shala to finish Shala. I put 2 actual dice on Shala for the purpose of ensuring its completion could have put 1 die or 1 die with Erewhon, but 1 die only gave a sub 50% chance of finishing and if I was going to put a second die on it I want to be sure it will finish.

-[] Service 4/4 Dice +35 bonus 190 R
--[] Autodoc Systems Deployment 0/280: 3 Dice 90 R (44% Chance)
--[] Primitive Prototype Portal Construction 279/400: 1 Die 100 R (40% Chance)
Notes: Portals for Portals and Autodoc for PS burn off and to allow additional Emergency health for Karachi.

-[] Military 7/7 Dice + AA +31 185 R
--[] Department of Refits: -1 Mil Die -30 RpT Auto
--[] Initiative Laser Systems Deployment 0/555: 2 Dice 60 R (2/7 Median)
--[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 2) 196/215: 1 AA Die 20 R (97% Chance)
--[] Stealth Disruptor Deployment 0/160: 2 Dice 30 R (67% Chance)
--[] Island Class Assault Ship Deployment 70/135: 1 Die 25 R (82% Chance)
--[] Modular Rapid Assembly Prototype Factory 102/265: 1 Die 20 R (1/2 Median)
Notes: Refits as with the Governor A that seems enough for me for rolling the refit department out to be worth it. I will rerun the math in the new turn to be sure, if it is not I'd either move the die to the Laser System Deployment or move it along with the Lasers to the Governor A refit directly. Orcas and Islands to finish those projects. Stealth Disruptors to add to our combat ability prior to Karachi. MRASP for the MARV rollout.

-[] Bureaucracy 4/4 +29 60 R
--[] Administrative Assistance (Orca Wingmen): 2 Dice Auto
--[] Transfer Funding to InOps: 1 Die Auto -60 RpT
--[] Predictive Modeling Management: 1 Die Auto
Notes: InOps funding to further build up our security. PMM to dramatically reduce the chance of Nat 1s, which given we had 2 in the past few turns is something I think we can take steps towards to prevent in the future.

1275/1380 R
 
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While I'm not against doing the Shala habitation bay eventually, I don't think we've confirmed that it's necessary for the plan goal? And even if it was, why would it be a higher priority than the High Density Bay which, imo, is much more likely to affect our future station/colony building?
 
While I'm not against doing the Shala habitation bay eventually, I don't think we've confirmed that it's necessary for the plan goal? And even if it was, why would it be a higher priority than the High Density Bay which, imo, is much more likely to affect our future station/colony building?

While not explicitly required it is a way to get more people in Space. The exact scale of the Lunar Project/follow on Stations is unknown at this time. The exact amount of population off Earth it will provide unknown. Shala and the High Density Bay will provide another 1.6k, which leaves us at 5.15k + 1.6k = 6.75k. 13.25k more from the Lunar Project, any bit of that we can shave off will make things a bit less crazy. Though you are correct that the High Density Bay is a higher priority. I'll swap their die allocations that way we still make decent progress on it and get the more Space Pop/Die efficient High Density Bay sooner:
--[] High Density Housing 0/295: 3 Dice 60 R (42% Chance)
--[] Habitation Bay 0/295: 1 Die + Erewhon 40 R (1.66/3 Median)
 
Honestly, I'm with the military on this one. SADN makes our citizens feel better and the thread feel better, but aren't going to stop al-Isfahani if he genuinely fears for his position and safety. If it comes down to it, he has lots of nukes and either has subs, or can trade for some. He can absolutely try to make a nuclear tsunami, and there's not much of anything we can really do about it.
To add some distinction to the discussion here:
Al-Isfahani will absolutely use tactical and possibly even strategic-size nukes on military targets involved in the invasion of his heartlands. GDI considers this part of the cost of doing business, more or less - ion strikes and counterforce tactical/operational nuclear blasts are usually something below the scope of this quest. His use of nukes or other WMDs in a countervalue aspect is not certain, but still has a decent chance... but also is less likely to be as hurtful if we allow more time for SADN to come into operation. (If only because it would force him to attack less juicy targets or risk failure.)

Will nukes be used? Yes, but that's nothing new.
Will they be used in larger quantities and on more varied targets than usual? Yes.
Is it going to be painful? Yes.
Is he going to try something that would cause major indiscriminate damage? Probably not - there are a lot of Noddies who have coastal territory, who are much more likely to express their displeasure in very nasty ways. (To take the given example of a nuclear tsunami.)

And, to address the point that started the discussion: Is starting Karachi early likely to have any significant benefit? I really really doubt it.
 
Finishing Coordinated Abatement should help somewhat. Make the nod factions around Al-Isfahani more inclined to interfere on our behalf or something.

the coordinated abatement projects have been of significant value to the warlords that are participating; they are more willing to both put their own resources in, and do more to dissuade the radical side of the Brotherhood from interfering.


Not really much we can do besides that.
 
Why a AA die on Reforestation? We hardly need free dice in Agriculture. If anything, I'd think that Orca Wingmen Drones are a perfect spot for an AA die, since it'd only need to roll a 4 or higher to complete.

I put the AA die there as it was cheap to activate and we'll need a lot of dice there eventually. I don't have a particular attachment to it though as Agriculture doesn't have any particular need for additional dice unless we wanted to roll out an enormous amount of Food Reserves. Moving it to the Orcas is a sound idea, as even without it we'll still finish Phase 1 of the Reforestation Prep. I'll move the mil die freed up to the Laser System.

I'll note that my plan as it stands is working on two projects that consume STUs, 2Gen Repulsor plates which has descent odds of finishing this turn, and the Laser System Deployment, which isn't going to finish next turn but will likely finish either in Q2 2064 or Q3. We currently have 30 bordering on 31 STU production and 24 STU consumption. The Vein Mines this turn or the next phase of IHG Refits should put us solidly in the 31 STU production bracket which will provide enough STUs to finish both. While not this turn, as I want to finish some of the military deployments we've let hanging for a bit, I do think that next turn we should grab a bunch of the RZ MARVs in the Med (RZ1S, RZ3N, and RZ3S) as that will give us a nice boost in STU output.
 
If there's a desire to wait for SADN, why not take these?

[ ] Make Political Promises
-[ ] Militarist (Wardens): Begin Karachi after SADN Phase 1 is fully deployed (Q3 2064).
-[ ] Socialist Party: Complete income goals by Q4 2064.

The income goal is scraping the ground a bit, but if you're not spending tib dice elsewhere it's free real estate.
 
If there's a desire to wait for SADN, why not take these?

[ ] Make Political Promises
-[ ] Militarist (Wardens): Begin Karachi after SADN Phase 1 is fully deployed (Q3 2064).
-[ ] Socialist Party: Complete income goals by Q4 2064.

The income goal is scraping the ground a bit, but if you're not spending tib dice elsewhere it's free real estate.
We should definitely take the first. It's free PS
 
If there's a desire to wait for SADN, why not take these?

[ ] Make Political Promises
-[ ] Militarist (Wardens): Begin Karachi after SADN Phase 1 is fully deployed (Q3 2064).
-[ ] Socialist Party: Complete income goals by Q4 2064.

The income goal is scraping the ground a bit, but if you're not spending tib dice elsewhere it's free real estate.
Make Political Promises (the promises to political parties bureau action) is not typically a high priority. They're nice as boosts to the given party's election chances, and can somewhat influence the number of supporters we have in parliament. Both though are very opaque, both in scale and in effect. And unlike departmental favors, it does not give PS.

I think we tend to use it more as a way to either force ourselves in a given direction, or to spend a bureau die.

As to why not the Karachi promise? As above, it was a low priority. And there's something to be said for operational ambiguity. By not making that promise, Nod isn't sure if we'll invade in Q1, Q2, Q3, or later. And so has to prepare for each eventuality. Whereas if we make it, Nod (who are very good at spycraft) will know with a very high probability that we'll be invading in Q4 or later, which lets them focus their resources and plans better.
 
So, if we acknowledge that Nod is very good at spycraft and thus the Shah would be aware political promises... then wouldn't that mean he'd been planning and preparing for the invasion for literal years? Like, the only reason we didn't kick off our original timing was the Regency War caused us to change priorities, and then we basically ran out of time due to the Navy's force levels. We're coming up on the fourth anniversary of the start of the Regency War. He's had the better part of a decade to get ready for our Karachi push and rail connection to BZ18.

Also, I'm pretty sure he can pay attention to the weather just as well as we can, so us promising to go after the monsoon season is basically saying, "yes, we're going to do the thing where we don't start a major project during monsoon season and before the megaproject we focused on completing actually starts working." So I'm not sure that promising that would actually reveal anything he didn't already suspect would happen, particularly given our sudden push to get SADN going.

More importantly, if he's known this has been coming for 5+ years, it's entirely possible that he's determined what territory he's willing to give up (or perhaps has taken the time to move important industry/infrastructure further from potential combat areas). That's not taking into account that the Bannerjees might've sent a diplomat to speak with the Shah about the negotiations and what he might be willing to concede/trade on the route since Karachi would almost certainly come up during the talks.

--

As an aside, I don't expect nuclear strikes to be against civilian areas, and against military targets might be unlikely.

Why? No Nod warlord has used nukes against a civilian target in the Quest. Every time civilian targets have been hit, it's been conventional weaponry - whether Stahl or Bintang - (I'm not counting the Indianapolis junction as civilian), they have very much kept the CBRNT away from civilians. The two times nukes have been used was in combat. First, we have a Red Zone Harvesting Operation that encircled a bunch of Nod in the Middle East. The Shah used enough nukes to blow a hole in GDI lines, allowing the Nod forces to escape. Despite GDI forces hunkering down and ops in the area paused in case of further strikes, no more nukes were used. Second, Bintang used a number of nukes against the GDI fleet engaging her. In the second case, we know Kane wasn't entirely happy with her use of nukes.

What could reduce the chances of military targets getting hit? Well, for one, people tend to not want to nuke their own soil or people, so there'd be some reluctance for the Shah to nuke his own territory to hit GDI units. Two, depending on where the wind blows, the nuclear fallout could drift into more of his territory, or perhaps into Bannerjee territory. Third, nukes are not precision weapons, so hitting GDI might also end up nuking Bannerjee territory. Do any of these reasons preclude use of nukes? No, but it does mean there's concerns that would need to be addressed (particularly regarding Bannerjee territory) or at least considered.
 
The two times nukes have been used was in combat. First, we have a Red Zone Harvesting Operation that encircled a bunch of Nod in the Middle East. The Shah used enough nukes to blow a hole in GDI lines, allowing the Nod forces to escape. Despite GDI forces hunkering down and ops in the area paused in case of further strikes, no more nukes were used. Second, Bintang used a number of nukes against the GDI fleet engaging her. In the second case, we know Kane wasn't entirely happy with her use of nukes.
Those are the two times nukes have used that we have heard about. I can't find anything in-thread about it, but there have been several Discord discussions which have included that Nod use of tacnukes is not significantly rarer than GDI use of Ion Cannon strikes. They aren't considered noteworthy enough for Treasury Secretary to pay attention to.

The first instance you referenced was probably a Doylist choice to show "here's this guy's iconic trait", the second was because Bintang was sending a message about escalation/de-escalation.
 
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