Do we have to worry about our deployment of inhibitors pushing Tiberium towards the Earth's core?
No, the inhibitors were doing that, but we already fixed it.
One thing that GDI has discovered is that the first generation of the inhibitors was actually marginally counterproductive. A Tiberium Accelerator has a threefold function. First, speeding the growth of Tiberium. Second, drawing subsurface Tiberium towards it. Third, they actually offer some degree of manual control over where the Tiberium spreads. By essentially plugging the thing in backwards, while it does mean that Tiberium growth was slowed, it also pushed it away, primarily down into the ground. While not a difficult thing to fix, and solutions are already in place, it is a noticeable flaw in GDI's attempts to make use of Visitor technology to combat the threat of Tiberium.
emphasis mine.
 
Hmm...

Was there a mistake in the probability array?

Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2) 83/230 (2 dice, 30 R) (74% chance)

With a 74% chance we would have needed to roll a average of above 26 to pass right?

We averaged 31 and

Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2) 83+58+62=203/230

Or am I completely misunderstanding this and getting my math wrong?
 
Looks like we delved too greadily and too deep.

And awoke a creature of shadow and flame
Oh good we only woke a Belrog. I was worried that it would have been something bad, like a hoard of giant vicious Tib Worms that would burrow up to the surface and rampage spreading liquid tib across significant amounts of a heavily populated part of a Blue Zone. :tongue:
 
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And now for the turn to be called "Tiberium Strikes Back" Darkandus just needs to roll a double 100.
The green rock from hell was just luring us into a false sense of safety last turn.
 
Expanded mathpost, with a few numbers fixed:
Also @Simon_Jester - a reminder that copy/pasting from early proto-plans can result in inaccurate numbers. I had to fix a couple things from the progress numbers in your plan. (They didn't change the completion results, but...)

Plan Attempting to Science the Apertures
Infrastructure (5/5 Dice, +27 bonus, 80 R)
Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 4) 1+81+195=277/480
Postwar Housing Refits (Phase 1) 114+27+57=198/165
Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2) 159+27+61=247/220 Phase 2, 27/160 Phase 3
Heavy Industry (5/5 Dice + 2 Free Dice, +34 bonus, 240 R)
Second Generation Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 2) 263+68+117=448/305 Phase 2, 143/290
U Series Alloy Foundries (Phase 5) 136+170+247=553/485 Phase 5, 68/480 Phase 6
Light Industry (4/4 Dice, +29 bonus, 75 R)
Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 883+87+173=1143/1100
Adaptive Clothing Development 0+34+32=66/60
Agriculture (6/6 dice, +29 bonus, 50 R)
Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2) 83+58+62=203/230
Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1) 252+116+89=457/815
Tiberium (7/7 dice + 1 Free die, +39 bonus, 200 R)
Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 9) 22+78+96=196/160 NAT 1
Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (BZ-4 Southeast Arabia) 52+39+43=134/85
Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (BZ-9 East Australia) 59+39+10=108/85
Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 5) 158+39+48=245/210
Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 1) 82+78+118=278/190 Phase 1, 88/190
Tiberium Field Refinery Development 0+44+87=131/80
Orbital (7/7 Dice + 3 Free die + EREWHON!!!, +34 bonus, 230 R)
GDSS Columbia (Phase 5) 643+117+196=956/1030
GDSS Shala (Phase 4) 486+156+245=887/520 Phase 4, 367/1005 NAT 100
Hospital Bay 0+78+106=184/315
Life Support Processor Development 0+39+83=122/80
Services (4/4 Dice + AA Die, +35 bonus, 175 R)
University Program Updates 137+35+62=234/250
Cosmetic Biosculpting 0+40+52=92/350
Library Enhancement Programs 0+35+114=149/180
Primitive Prototype Portal Construction 0+45+28=73/400
Military (7/7 Dice + AA Die, +31 bonus, 140 R)
Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 4) 125+93+202=420/365
Infantry Recon Support Drone Deployment 0+62+183=245/160
Shark Class Frigate Shipyards (Seattle) 0+31+117=148/240
Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development 0+36+61=97/80

Net impacts (before persistent additions):
-5 Housing
+3 High Quality Housing
+5 Logistics
+12 Energy
-1 Labor
-2 STUs
(5% discount on many projects)
+6 Capital Goods
(Reduces cost of mech and zone armor projects)
Strange New Fashions
+50 Resource per Turn
+5 Yellow Zone Abatement
[boom/crunch?]
+17 Political Support
+5 Red Zone Abatement
STUMARV design
+4 Food
+2 Consumer Goods
(+2 available Shala Bays)
Improved Life Support
SADN Towers: (Projected: 2 quarters to begin, 6 quarters to complete)
Infantry Recon Support Drone: (3 quarters to begin, 9 to complete)
Steel Talons drone designs

New Economic Issues:
Housing: +72 (9 population in low quality housing) (+1 high-quality housing per turn)
Energy: +33 (+5 in reserve)(+4 per turn from sub-departments)
Logistics: +26 (-2 from military activity)
Food: +29 (+24 backed reserve, +5 unbacked reserve) (Perennials: +1 on Q1 2063, +1 on Q4 2063)
Health: +23 (-8 from refugees)
Capital Goods: +25 (+2 per turn from Distributed Industrial Authority) (+304 in reserve)
STUs: +6
Consumer Goods: +237 (+5 per turn from Private Industry) (+3 per turn from sub-departments) (+1 per turn from perennials. -1 per turn Q1 2064) (Net +9 per turn)
Labor: +29 (+3 per turn from medical care) (+2 per turn from Immigrant qualifications) (-3 per turn from private industry) (-1 per turn from other government) (Net +1)
Tiberium‌ ‌Processing‌ ‌Capacity‌ ‌(2760/3800)‌ ‌(900 IHG)
Tiberium Reserve (0/500)
Taxation Per Turn: +120 (+15 per turn from Private Industry)
Space Mining Per Turn: +100
Maintenance Reductions: +50
Green Zone Water: +5

STU Production and Consumption
Net: +6 per turn
Production: +30 per turn
Consumption: -24 per turn
18 Economy
-6 Tiberium (2 Harvesting Tendrils, 2 Sonic Weapons, 2 T-Glass)
-12 Other (8 Structural Alloys, 2 Hovercraft, 2 Gravitic Shipyard)
6 Military
-4 Aircraft (2 Tactical Lasers, 2 Plasma Munitions)
-1 Ground Vehicles (1 Mastodons [Shimmer Shields, Point Defense Lasers], 0 Havocs [Shimmer Shields])
-1 Strategic Air Defense Networks
 
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Oh good we only woke a Belrog. I was worried that it would have been something bad, like a hoard of giant vicious Tib Worms that would burrow up to the surface and rampage spreading liquid tib across significant amounts of a heavily populated part of a Blue Zone. :tongue:
Tib mutated grabboids. That is all.

--

Maybe we hit a liquid tib pocket and a chunk of mine got flooded?

I feel like the only way the vein mine roll could've been more extreme is if the second roll had been a 100 instead of just 95.
 
Fortunately we only rolled one nat 1. Which is bad but not as nearly altering as when you get 2 on the same or related projects, same way a nat 100 gives us an extra boost but you need 2 for a major impact.
 
Maybe we hit a liquid tib pocket and a chunk of mine got flooded?
Can't wait for that Liquid Tib Fabrication to become available so we can start safely turning liquid tib into other useful stuff.
I feel like the only way the vein mine roll could've been more extreme is if the second roll had been a 100 instead of just 95.
Oh god imagine if it had, I would not envy Ithillid having to write the contradiction but it certainly would be interesting to read.
 
Math Post Q2 2063, with Economy and Plan Updates
Results:

Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 4): 1 + 3 * 27 + 195 = 277/480
Postwar Housing Refits (Phase 1): 114 + 1 * 27 + 57 = 198/165, 33/165 Phase 2
Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2): 159 + 1 * 27 + 61 = 247/220, 27/160 Phase 3
Second Generation Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 2): 263 + 2 * 34 + 117 = 448/305, 143/305? Phase 3
U Series Alloy Foundries (Phase 5): 136 + 5 * 34 + 247 = 553/485, 68/480? Phase 6
Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5): 883 + 3 * 29 + 173 = 1143/1100
Adaptive Clothing Development: 0 + 1 * (29 + 5) + 32 = 66/60

Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2): 83 + 2 * 29 + 62 = 203/230
Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1): 252 + 4 * 29 + 89 = 457/815

Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 9): 22 + 2 * 39 + 96 = 196/160 NAT 1 Complete, 36/155 Stage 10
Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (BZ-4 Southeast Arabia): 52 + 1 * 39 + 43 = 134/85
Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (BZ-9 East Australia): 59 + 1 * 39 + 10 = 108/85
Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 5): 158 + 1 * 39 + 48 = 245/210
Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 1): 82 + 2 * 39 + 118 = 278/190
, 88/190 Phase 2
Tiberium Field Refinery Development: 0 + 1 * (39 + 5) + 87 = 131/80
GDSS Columbia (Phase 5): 643 + 3 * (34 + 5) + 196 = 956/1030
GDSS Shala (Phase 4): 486 + 4 * (34 + 5) + 245 = 887/520 NAT 100, 367/1005 Phase 5
Hospital Bay: 0 + 2 * (34 + 5) + 106 = 184/315

Life Support Processor Development: 0 + 1 * (34 + 5) + 83 = 122/80
University Program Updates: 137 + 1 * 35 + 62 = 234/250
Cosmetic Biosculpting: 0 + 1 * 35 + 52 = 87/350
Library Enhancement Programs: 0 + 1 * 35 + 114 = 149/180
Primitive Prototype Portal Construction: 0 + 1 * 35 + 28 = 63/400

Anti-radiation Munitions Deployment 100 + 50 = 150/300 Munitions Department
Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 4): 125 + 3 * 31 + 202 = 420/365
Infantry Recon Support Drone Deployment: 0 + 2 * 31 + 183 = 245/170

Ultralight Glide Munitions Deployment (Phase 1) 100 + 50 = 150/175 Munitions Department
Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 3) 50 + 50 = 100/170 Munitions Department

Shark Class Frigate Shipyards (Seattle): 0 + 1 * 31 + 117 = 148/240
Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development: 0 + 1 * (31 +5) + 61 = 97/80
Administrative Assistance: Shark Frigate Yards: Auto
Administrative Assistance: Library Enhancement Programs: Auto


Economic Indicators:
Housing: 73 + 1 (BoA) - 2 (Housing Refits) = 72
Low Quality Housing: 13 - 1 (BoA) - 3 (Housing Refits) = 9
Energy: 20 + 4 (DEA) - 3 (Fusion Decommissioning) + 19 (2CCF) - 4 (Alloys) + 4 (Reykjavik) - 6 (BZ Inhibitor) + 2 (Border Offensives) - 2 (SADN) - 1 (Infantry Drones) = 33
Energy Reserve: 5
Logistics: 21 + 5 (Shuttles) = 26
Food: 24 + 4 (Shala) = 28
Backed Food Reserve: 24
Unbacked Food Reserve: 5
Health: 23
Capital Goods: 17 + 2 (DIA) + 8 (Reykjavik) - 2 (Vein Mines) = 25
Capital Goods Reserve: 279 + 25 = 304
STUs: 7 - 1 (Alloys) - 1 (SADN) = 5
Consumer Goods: 226 + 9 (Growth) + 2 (Shala) = 237
Labor: 29 + 1 (Growth) - 1 (2CCF) = 29
Tiberium‌ ‌Processing‌ ‌Capacity‌: ‌3800 (900 IHG, 2900 HG)
Active Tiberium Processing Capacity: 2710 + 30 (Vein Mines) + 20 (Border Offensives) = 2760/3800, ‌900/900 IHG, 1860/2900 HG
Tiberium Reserve: 0/500
Taxation Per Turn: 120 + 15 (Private Industry) = 135
Space Mining Per Turn: 100
Maintenance Reductions: 50
Green Zone Water: 5
Income: 1165 + 15 (Private Industry) + 30 (Vein Mines) + 20 (Border Offensives) = 1230 RpT
Budget Reserve: 1165 (Current Income) + 60 (Reserve) - 1190 (Turn Expenditure) = 25 R
Budget: 1230 (New Income) + 25 (Budget Reserve) = 1255 R
YZ Mitigation: 100 + 1 (Vein Mines) + 4 (BZ Inhibitor) = 105
RZ Mitigation: 81 + 3 (Border Offensives) + 2 (Coordinated Abatement) = 86
Political Support: 77 + 2 (BZ Inhibitor) + 15 (Shala) = 94
Space Population: 2.85k + .3k (Shala) = 3.15k


Plan Goals:
Provide 33 26 Consumer Goods points from the Treasury In Progress
Provide 3 1 Consumer Goods from Agriculture In Progress
Increase Income by 550 485 In Progress
Increase Tiberium Processing limit by 470
Increase population in space by 17.15k 16.85k In Progress
Provide 25 20 Points of Red Zone Abatement In Progress
Spend at least one die on Steel Talons projects every turn Complied With This Turn

Projects:
Complete Karachi Planned City by end of 2065
Deploy Orca Wingman Drones by end of 2065
Complete North Boston Phase 5
Develop and deploy Governor-A refit
Complete at least 2 Blue Zone Inhibitors by end of 2065 Complete
Complete 1 of Nuuk, Reykjavik, Bergen Complete (Reykjavik)
Complete all phases of Red Zone Border Offensives before 2064 Complete
Complete SADN Phase 4 Complete
Complete at least 4 Ground Forces Zone Armor factories
Complete all of the following projects: Transorbital Fighter Development or follow on heavy ship development and Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development In Progress (Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development Complete)
Complete 2 phases of Reforestation Campaign Preparation In Progress
Develop both Next Generation Armored and Support Vehicles by end of 2065
Complete Regional Hospital Expansions by end of 2065
Complete Coordinated Abatement by end of 2065 In Progress (Phase 1 Complete)
Complete Post War Housing Refits In Progress (Phase 1 Complete)

Promises to Litvinov:
Do not activate Free Dice (except for Tiberium) unless all Department Dice are active. Complied With This Turn
Spend no more than two free dice per turn on Military. Complied With This Turn
Activate Refit Department
Hand off at least 10 more points of Capital Goods to market over the course of the plan.
Complete Improved Hewlett Gardener Refits before end of plan
 
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Yes, though as @MrRageQuit points out we 'only' have 94 PS. However, we are only a die on average away from Columbia finishing, plus the libraries being only a die away as well. So burning some off next turn wouldn't go amiss. On the other hand, that is election time, and last minute unpopular moves may cause unintended consequences.
 
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