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Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

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Well, the likelihood of rolling a natural 1 on one die is 0.01.

And if you roll 54 dice (I forget our exact number, but 55-1 is a start) then the odds of ANY of them being a 1, at least one, is 1-(0.99^54) = 42%, roughly.

So there is a 0.42% chance, roughly, of both a natural one on some specific die and also a natural one on some other die on an unrelated project. But it seems implausible that a 1 on Enhanced Yield Tiberium Spikes and an unrelated 1 on, say, fusion plants or orbital construction or autodoc deployment would somehow cause a massive ultra-disaster that overloads and destroys the Earth or whatever.
 
Bleh, can't count zeroes. >_<

And the likelihood of the reverse happening, with nat 100s instead is equally likely.

But more importantly, spreading the 'risk' over two turns doesn't diminish it at all.
 
HousePet said:
But more importantly, spreading the 'risk' over two turns doesn't diminish it at all.
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Well... It COULD.

If we posit that rolling two 1's on the same project in the same turn leads to a worse outcome than if we'd rolled two 1's on successive turns.

Or if there's some reasonable chance that the first 1 leads to the whole project being either revamped for safety or just totally abandoned as cursed somehow before the greater disaster represented by the double-1 can occur.
 
Oleg-14191 said:
If we finish SADN 4 fast, could it convince al-Isfahani to negotiate?

His only real chance to do anything against GDI are nukes, with SADN fully deployed he doesn't have any real way of hurting us.

He might drop nukes on Ground Forces, but he can't hurt us strategically.
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He likely has some Mehretu-shaped reasons not to negotiate as well as ambitious subordinates*... and even if SADN is fully operational, that doesn't mean he can't hurt us, it just means it's a lot less likely. And he won't know how well it is going to work.
...and if he manages to drop one of his strategic nukes on a division of ours, that will hurt quite a bit.

*Nod has several structural methods of discouraging being known to negotiate with GDI, most of which involve getting couped.

Now, I'm not saying completing SADN Phase 4 quickly is a bad idea, just that it's not a complete shield, and also negotiation is unlikely.
 
Maybe we could do the actions that change our dice to 2d50? It would eliminate Nat 1s. Even Nat 2s would be highly implausible. The action to remove dice rolls from large projects is also attractive, too. Pretty sure it would also eliminate narrative issues that happen when we try rushing projects too.
 
Shard said:
Maybe we could do the actions that change our dice to 2d50? It would eliminate Nat 1s. Even Nat 2s would be highly implausible. The action to remove dice rolls from large projects is also attractive, too. Pretty sure it would also eliminate narrative issues that happen when we try rushing projects too.
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Looking at it we have the cap good surplus to do that this turn, Reykjavik finishes this turn or next which will cover most of that.

As for SADN I see no reason not to try and get phase 4 done, plan goal plus it helps us and takes time to rollout once the phase finishes. In general unless we have something more pressing clearing plan goals is a good target since that means we don't have to worry about a crunch at the end of the plan.
 
Chronological order of most of the military projects completed (and may not have finished deploying) since the start of the Regency War:

Havoc Scout Mech Deployment Phase 2: 2060 Q1. ???
Shark Class Frigate Shipyards Phase 1: Completed 2060 Q2. ???
Apollo Wingmen: Completed 2060 Q2. ???
TAL: Completed 2060 Q2. ???
Plasma Warhead Factory Phase 1: Completed 2060 Q3. ???
Plasma Warhead Factory Phase 2: Completed 2060 Q3. ???
Merchantman Carrier Conversions: Completed 2060 Q3. ???
Shark Class Frigate Shipyards Phase 2: Completed 2060 Q4. ???
Firehawk Wingmen: Completed 2060 Q4. ???
Escort Carrier Shipyards Phase 1: Completed 2061 Q1. ???
Escort Carrier Shipyards Phase 2: Completed 2061 Q1. ???
Escort Carrier Shipyards Phase 3: Completed 2061 Q2. ??
Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker: Completed 2061 Q3. ???
Escort Carrier Shipyards Phase 4: Completed 2061 Q3. ???
GFZA Set 1 Phase 1: Completed 2061 Q3. Begins: 2062 Q1. Ends: 2064 Q1.(2-10)
ASAT Phase 4: Completed 2061 Q4. ???
OSRCT Phase 4: Completed 2061 Q4. ???
GFZA Set 1 Phase 2: Completed 2061 Q4. Begins: 2062 Q2. Ends: 2064 Q2.(2-10)
GFZA Set 1 Phase 3: Completed 2062 Q2. Begins: 2062 Q4. Ends: 2064 Q4.(2-10)
Railgun Munitions Factories Phase 1: Completed 2062 Q2. Begins: 2062 Q3. Ends 2063 Q4. (1-6)
Orca Wingmen Drone Phase 1: Completed 2062 Q3. Begins: 2063 Q3. Ends: 2066 Q3.(4-16)
GFZA Set 1 Phase 4: Completed 2062 Q3. Begins: 2063 Q1. Ends: 2065 Q3.(2-10)
GFZA Set 1 Phase 5: Completed 2062 Q3. Begins: 2063 Q1. Ends: 2065 Q3.(2-10)
Railgun Munitions Factories Phase 2: Completed 2063 Q1. Begins: 2063 Q2. Ends 2064 Q3. (1-6)
SADN Phase 1: Completed 2063 Q1. Begins: 2063 Q3. Ends: 2064 Q3. (2-6)
SADN Phase 2: Completed 2063 Q2. Begins: 2063 Q4. Ends: 2064 Q4. (2-6)
SADN Phase 3: Completed 2063 Q2. Begins: 2063 Q4. Ends: 2064 Q4. (2-6)
GFZA Set 1 Phase 6: Completed 2063 Q2. Begins: 2063 Q4. Ends: 2065 Q4. (2-10)

I'm assuming Ablat, Shells, URLS, Railgun harvesters, Skywatch, Tactical Plasma, Sonic Weapons, and Neural Interface System Refits have completed already.
 
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Void Stalker said:
Looking at it we have the cap good surplus to do that this turn, Reykjavik finishes this turn or next which will cover most of that.
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Doable, but it might not be that comfortable if we'll be forced to restart Vein Mines before we complete Boston.

Anyway, Military - 4 Dice to complete SADN, 2 on Orca Wingmen and 1 on Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle?

Or should we consider Transorbital and Next-Generation Armored Support Vehicles instead of Wingmen?
 
My current thoughts for Mil:
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 4) 125/365 3 dice 60R 65%
-[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 2) 56/230 2 dice 40R 54%
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyards (Seattle) 0/240 3 dice 60R 65%
-[] Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development 0/80 1 die 20R 72%

SADN Phase 4 we want to finish but if we need to spend a die Q4 it won't be too bad, flip side is we have a good chance at only needing to spend 3 dice so that helps us progress elsewhere. Orca Wingmen Drone is both a plan requirement and something that helps support our ground forces, navy and Karachi prep. Shark Class is finishing up the last shipyard which is more naval aid and Karachi prep and Unmmaned is a plan goal and the steel talon die for the turn. This is 2 free dice on the category but it feels like we have a lot of stuff to churn through both for prep work and for plan goals. Though we probably want to start working on the dev side for the combat vehicles Q4 or early next year so we can see how many dice we need to deploy them as those are plan goals as well.

Proto Plan Revision
1135/1225 (90 rollover, bureau dice could provide 1 or 2 AA dice to drop this)

[] Proto Plan
Infra 5/5 105R +27
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 7) 93/260 1 die 20R 0%
-[] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2+3) 159/380 3 dice 75R 70%
-[] Postwar Housing Refits (Phase 1) 114/160 1 die 10R 97%
HI 5/5+3 free 260R +34
-[] U Series Alloy Foundries (Phase 5) 136/485 5 dice 200R 91%
-[] Second Generation Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 2) 263/305 3 dice 60R 100%, 11% for Phase 3
LCI 4/4 90R +29
-[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 883/1100 3 dice 60R 76%
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 4) 235/640 1 die 30R
Agri 6/6 30R +29
-[] Reforestation Campaign Preparations (Phase 1) 252/815 6 dice 30R 16%
Tiberium 7/7 200R +39
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 5) 158/210 1 die 25R 100%
-[] Improved Hewlett Gardener Refits (Phase 2) 65/220 2 dice 70R 82%
-[] Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes 0/180 1 die 20R 0%
-[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (Blue Zone 4 Southeast Arabia) 52/85 1 die 30R 100%
-[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (Blue Zone 9 East Australia) 59/85 1 die 30R 100%
-[] Coordinated Abatement Programs (Phase 1) 82/190 1 die 25R 47%
Orbital 7/7+1 free 180R +34
-[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 5) 643/1030 4 dice 80R 41%
-[] GDSS Shala (Phase 4) 486/520 4 dice+ Erewhon 100R 100%
Services 4/4 90R +35
-[] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 2) 85/275 3 dice 75R 95%
-[] University Program Updates 137/250 1 die 15R 38%
Military 7/7+2 free 180R +31
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 4) 125/365 3 dice 60R 65%
-[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 2) 56/230 2 dice 40R 54%
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyards (Seattle) 0/240 3 dice 60R 65%
-[] Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development 0/80 1 die 20R 72%
Bureau 4/4 +29 0R
-[] ????

Free 6/6
3HI, 1 Orbital, 2 Mil

Right so some revised thoughts- 1 dice on postwar housing as we dont want to rush that, instead doing one phase over 2 turns allows us to move all the pop into HQ (+2 from arcology department and +3 from the refits), we also have the ability and funds to finish suborbital so knock that out, and for the last dice start working on YZ fortress towns to solidfy our borders and open up GZ harvesting if we want to pursue that as a low income and YZ mit source in the future.

For HI- finish phase 5 of the alloy and knock out a phase of new fusion plants which covers energy expenditure this turn and means we keep a reserve of energy in case we shift dice or have demand spikes in the future and also means we are not going to run into issues with taking 1st gen plants offline.

For LCI finish Reykjavik and start on Bergen since we have the funding for it, Reykjavik is a plan goal and a nice boost of cap goods and energy.

Agri- working on getting at least 1 phase of reforest prep done before elections, we have a small chance to finish it this turn, either way this sets us up well to try and finish the goal to have 2 phases done by the end of next year which means we are not leaving a plan goal to the last minute like the last 4 year plan.

Tib- 1 dice on border offensive to avoid stressing zocom while also progressing a plan goal, 2 dice to work on the refit plan goal (which we have 10 turns to get 6 phases down so lets roll that out over time), plus each phase improves our STU production. Finish the 2 Tib inhibitor deployment, keep coordinated abatement rolling and look into Enhanced Harvest Tib Spikes in case we can get any potential mitigation out of them perhaps for underground tib given the text of the inhibitors in the most recent results.

Orbital- We need both stations done to unlock followup stations and so full speed ahead to make sure we do not miss the plan goal, which we are getting close to halfway through the plan and are less than 25% done with the goal.

Services- Finish a plan goal and work on a labor improvement.

Mil- Try and knock out phase 4 of SADN, make a push on the Orca (plan goal) and Shark yard (last one and useful for freeing up Naval assets for Karachi) while knocking out another plan goal with a steel talon dev project.

Bureau- Need to see what new options show up as there is a lot of potential routes, we also have the free R to grab one or two AA dice.


Current Economic Issues:
Housing: +73 (13 population in low quality housing) (+1 high-quality housing per turn) (-2 housing, +3 HQ housing, +1 HQ per turn goes to 72, 9 pop in lq housing)
Energy: +20 (+5 in reserve) (-4 U Series Alloy, +19 2nd Gen Fusion, +4 Reykjavik, +2 RZ Border Offensive, -6 2 Tib Inhibitors, -1 Regional Hospital, chance for -3 from Orca, Chance for -6 from Shark yard, -2 SADN -22 from projects, +25 from projects
Logistics: +21 (-2 from military activity) (+13 suborbital shuttles)
Food: +24 (+24 backed reserve, +5 unbacked reserve) (Perennials: +1 on Q4 2063)
Health: +23 (-8 from refugees)
Capital Goods: +17 (+2 per turn from Distributed Industrial Authority) (+279 in reserve) (+8 Reykjavik, -1 Regional Hospital, chance of -1 University Program Update , chance for -1 from Orca, chance for -2 from shark yard
STUs: +6 (-1 U Series Alloy, +? from income and 1 stage of refits, -1 SADN)
Consumer Goods: +226 (+5 per turn from Private Industry) (+3 per turn from sub-departments) (+2 per turn from perennials. -1 per turn Q1 2064) (Net +9 per turn)
Labor: +29 (+3 per turn from medical care) (+2 per turn from Immigrant qualifications) (-3 per turn from private industry) (-1 per turn from other government) (Net +1) (-1 2nd Gen Fusion, -1 from Regional Hospital, chance for -1 from Orca
Tiberium‌ ‌Processing‌ ‌Capacity‌ ‌(2710/3800)‌ ‌(900 IHG)
Tiberium Reserve (0/500)
Taxation Per Turn: +120 (+15 per turn from Private Industry)
Space Mining Per Turn: +100
Maintenance Reductions: +50
Green Zone Water: +5

Plan Goals
Provide 33 Consumer Goods points from the Treasury (+2 from Shala)
Provide 3 Consumer Goods from Agriculture (+2 from Shala)
Increase Income by 550 (+15 to 35 RZ border offensive)
Increase Tiberium Processing limit by 470
Increase population in space by 17.15k (41% for 2k from Columbia, .3k from Shala)
Provide 25 Points of Red Zone Abatement (3 RZ border offensive, 47% for 2 from Coordinated Abatement)
Spend at least one die on Steel Talons projects every turn Fulfilled this turn

Projects

Complete Karachi Planned City by end of 2065
Deploy Orca Wingman Drones by end of 2065 (54% to finish this turn)
Complete North Boston Phase 5
Develop and deploy Governor-A refit
Complete at least 2 Blue Zone Inhibitors by end of 2065 (both should finish this turn)
Complete 1 of Nuuk, Reykjavik, Bergen (Reykjavik should finish this turn)
Complete all phases of Red Zone Border Offensives before 2064 (1 phase finishes this turn, ? to go)
Complete SADN Phase 4 (65% to finish)
Complete at least 4 Ground Forces Zone Armor factories
Complete all of the following projects:
Transorbital Fighter Development or follow on heavy ship development and Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development (USGV Dev should finish this turn)
Complete 2 phases of Reforestation Campaign Preparation (small chance of Phase 1 finishing )
Develop both Next Generation Armored and Support Vehicles by end of 2065
Complete Regional Hospital Expansions by end of 2065 (Finishes this turn)
Complete Coordinated Abatement by end of 2065 (chance of phase 1 finishing)
Complete Post War Housing Refits (Phase 1 finishes this turn, 2 more to go)

Promises to Litvinov:
Do not activate Free Dice (except for Tiberium) unless all Department Dice are active. Fulfilled
Spend no more than two free dice per turn on Military. Fulfilled
Activate Refit Department
Hand off at least 10 more points of Capital Goods to market over the course of the plan.
Complete Improved Hewlett Gardener Refits before end of plan (2nd of 7 to finish)
 
Now that we've gotten so much of SADN done, I'm not convinced that we need free dice in the military.


10 dice/turn was conquer the world levels (i.e. successfully engage in offensive operations with the entire brotherhood at once) prior to the Regency War. Afterwards, with the damage we did to Nod, it was 8-9. Factoring in tensions decreasing with the Caravanserai, Yao, the Bannerjees, and Bintang, activating our munitions department (which is at least as effective on a per die basis as manual investment), and our 20% discount (the equivalent of a 25% progress boost), I think 7 dice/turn is more than enough.

The free dice can be better used in Orbital (bootstrapping our space industry), Heavy Industry (AI, repulsors, cap goods, and energy), or Tiberium (abatement/income).

The military will always want something, and that's fine. But we're no longer putting out trash fires, so much as picking nice-to-haves.
 
Oleg-14191 said:
2-3 Dice on Lab meat Deployment, if it becomes available?

AAs on Shala?
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I left bureau out because there are a lot of options and would need to see anything new that pops up before deciding on how to move there. Lab meat deployment is a possibility, I have the spare R to move some dice of reforestation onto it.

Rakuhn said:
Now that we've gotten so much of SADN done, I'm not convinced that we need free dice in the military.


10 dice/turn was conquer the world levels (i.e. successfully engage in offensive operations with the entire brotherhood at once) prior to the Regency War. Afterwards, with the damage we did to Nod, it was 8-9. Factoring in tensions decreasing with the Caravanserai, Yao, the Bannerjees, and Bintang, activating our munitions department (which is at least as effective on a per die basis as manual investment), and our 20% discount (the equivalent of a 25% progress boost), I think 7 dice/turn is more than enough.

The free dice can be better used in Orbital (bootstrapping our space industry), Heavy Industry (AI, repulsors, cap goods, and energy), or Tiberium (abatement/income).

The military will always want something, and that's fine. But we're no longer putting out trash fires, so much as picking nice-to-haves.
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We still have some plan goals to chew through, as well as some additional projects to support other efforts like Karachi and Red Zone operations plus getting a space force ready to fight the Scrin remnants. We might be able to scale back but I would like to chew through the plan requirements with some free dice since we are capped and if we need more mil investment later we cannot surge like we can in other categories. So maybe a back half of year 3 depending on how things go?

Though I would like to get the MARV project under steel talons done and then start in on some more RZ marvs, that helps our abatement overall plus the income goal and fighting tib is always useful. Which is mil dice that are not super mil focused.
 
I really love @doruma1920 's analysis posts.
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Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

2063 Q2 Four Year Plan Required Dice Infrastructure Projects Infrastructure has the Planned City Project of Karachi. Required Projects: -Karachi Planned City Phase 1-5: 0/1705 Progress ~9 dice median --Requires 12 Labor --Provides 20 Logistics --Note: Dice split between Infrastructure and...
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So, this is at the start of the last turn.
We had 13 dice available in HI. Gave +3 Free dice. So, ~16 dice available next turn.
-This doesn't count learning about Fusion failing in the next couple of years, which needs about 2 dice per turn to stay ahead. So 2x10 - 7 = 13. For a net 3 dice available.

We had -5 dice available in Orbital. Gave 2 "free" dice, net -3.

We had 17 dice available in Tiberium. Spent 0 free dice, net 17.

We had 19 dice available in Military. Gave 2 free dice, net 21. And that assumes we use solely military dice to build MARVs, and we do the refits department immediately. Although it does undercount GFZA by about 5 dice. 21-5+5+1 = 22.

So, net
HI - 3 dice available
Orbital - -3 dice available
Tiberium - 12 dice available
Military - 22 dice available

Before accounting for alloy discounts. Of the big 4, the military needs free dice the least. (And it, as well as Tiberium, benefit the most heavily from alloys thanks to having the highest base number of dice).
 
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I just looked back and the next gen fighting vehicles I was reading as develop and deploy, but no we just need to develop them which relives the stress quite a bit since that was an unknown number of dice if we had to deploy as well. Though the ground zone armor numbers are off, the followup phases are more expensive than anticipated on there. Still given the way projects need to finish and have time to roll out, keeping 2 free dice on as we do Karachi prep projects seems ideal to me.
 
My ballpark analysis already included extra dice for GFZA.

We've been spending well above conquering the world levels of dice since before the regency war started. How in the world is throwing on an extra ~12 dice supposed to be noticeable (esp. once you account for delayed deployment times) in a fight against a second string warlord after the hundreds we've already spent, unless it's dealing with a critical vulnerability like SADN?

Those dice can be far better used on Boston (Erewhon, AI, Drones), Hoverplates, or Orbital (space industry).
 
Rakuhn said:
Military - 22 dice available

Before accounting for alloy discounts. Of the big 4, the military needs free dice the least. (And it, as well as Tiberium, benefit the most heavily from alloys thanks to having the highest base number of dice).
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It has turned out that Doruma was almost certainly greatly underestimating the amount of Progress required to reach the Zone Armor production target. Instead of building four 160-ish point factories from Set 2, we'll be building four much more expensive factories. That's going to drastically change our estimates of how many Military dice we have to play with, and forces us to accept a tighter focus on Plan requirements than I'd hoped.
 
Simon_Jester said:
It has turned out that Doruma was almost certainly greatly underestimating the amount of Progress required to reach the Zone Armor production target. Instead of building four 160-ish point factories from Set 2, we'll be building four much more expensive factories. That's going to drastically change our estimates of how many Military dice we have to play with, and forces us to accept a tighter focus on Plan requirements than I'd hoped.
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My analysis includes the adjustment for the larger facilities. -5 (transfer MARVs to Tiberium), +5 (GFZA size). Keep in mind that the version posted in thread does not include any discounts, whether myomer, alloys, or defender revisions.

Sorry, I must have deleted that line in one of my revisions.
 
I want to start rolling Karachi phases from Q3 64 till every quarter to Q3 '65 since that might cover it and keep it buttoned up

With all 25% Discount added, this is how it looks, and how I might do the dice layout unless there aren't further discounts or cuts etc.

[ ] Karachi Planned City
(Phase 1+2, Q3 2064) (Progress 0/150: 20 resources per die) (+2 Logistics, +2 Housing, -6 Labor) 3 Infra Dice + 1 Tib Dice
(Phase 3+4, Q1 2065) (Progress 0/585: 20 resources per die) (+10 Logistics, +6 Housing, -4 Labor) 5 Infra Dice + 1 Tib Dice
(Phase 5, Q3 2065) (Progress 0/780: 20 resources per die) (+8 Logistics, +4 Housing, -2 Labor) (+India and Iran Stuff) 5 Infra Dice + 1 Tib Dice
 
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F0lkL0re said:
So which two are more important to folk SADN, recon drones or stealth disrupters?
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SADN 4 needs about 3 dice
Recon Drones and Stealth Disruptors need 2 each for a total of 7 dice.

Plus 1 Free die for the Steel Talons and there is a plan allocation right there.

Personally I'd prefer to swap out Recon drones and another free die for Sharks, be the above would be a perfectly fine military section of a plan. I also know that ZOCOM needs boosting and if GFZA won't get them it any more now that the last Set 1 factory is built and we can't really afford Zrbite 2 yet, I understand where people are coming from for the Drones.
 
HousePet said:
I'm reserving judgement until I can see the blurb for SADN 4, and whether any divisions have reallocated their priorities.

I'm also really unclear on when people are thinking we are doing Karachi.
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Agreed. If nothing changes, I think Stealth disruptors. We know Nod loves their stealth tech, being able to peel back their curtains can only help us.
 
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