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Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

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Yes more hot Red guy action tyvm. Maybe we can trade pointers later on.

As for vote, not quite sure. Maybe Meng or Diao, will decide later after seeing arguments.
 
Audacious said:
Statistically better for what outcome? Also not necessarily true given we don't know what value was placed on the synergy bonuses.
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If you multiply the odds of success for all three of them it's higher if all three are buffed instead of 1 very buffed 1 buffed 1 non buffed. For example if you presume the starting odds to be 60% and the doubling up on previous vote adding +20%. If Meng wins it'd be 80%*80%*70%=44,8%. However if Diao or Wang win it's 90%*80%*60%=43,2%.
Independent of the starting value and the doubling up value, buffing Meng odds is better. Try it for yourself with other values and you'll see that it's always statistically better voting for Meng.
 
Like, what does understanding the Diao give us? Approaching them and trying to placate them is one thing but when the Meng are just one step above them in their opinion of us, why is knowing them so important? We've already voted to stabilize our relationship with them, and boosted that effort, what more do we need to do here? This won't help our mission, the Diao won't lift a finger to help us but neither would they ever have gone against the Duchess' order and hinder us, so they're literally a non-entity in what we're doing right now and per our efforts won't get worse if we ignore them. We have a chance to redefine the Emerald Seas' relationship with the a province tier power and for that we need support from clans like the Wang and Meng and we're worried about a guaranteed to be stable -1 rep with one baroness?
 
HeWhoLurks said:
If you multiply the odds of success for all three of them it's higher if all three are buffed instead of 1 very buffed 1 buffed 1 non buffed. For example if you presume the starting odds to be 60% and the doubling up on previous vote adding +20%. If Meng wins it'd be 80%*80%*70%=44,8%. However if Diao or Wang win it's 90%*80%*60%=43,2%.
Independent of the starting value and the doubling up value, buffing Meng odds is better. Try it for yourself with other values and you'll see that it's always statistically better voting for Meng.
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That's only true if you care about whatever a success with the Meng means in the first place which is why I asked the first part, what outcome is trying to be achieved here? I can see some potential super long term benefits to it, but it feels like we need immediate results that would be better addressed by a Wang vote if that's what you're after.

dycouza said:
Like, what does understanding the Diao give us? Approaching them and trying to placate them is one thing but when the Meng are just one step above them in their opinion of us, why is knowing them so important? We've already voted to stabilize our relationship with them, and boosted that effort, what more do we need to do here? This won't help our mission, the Diao won't lift a finger to help us but neither would they ever have gone against the Duchess' order and hinder us, so they're literally a non-entity in what we're doing right now and per our efforts won't get worse if we ignore them. We have a chance to redefine the Emerald Seas' relationship with the a province tier power and for that we need support from clans like the Wang and Meng and we're worried about a guaranteed to be stable -1 rep with one baroness?
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I'm viewing it less as doing more than stabilizing and more as getting as close to guaranteeing stabilization as possible.
 
Blurgh, this is hard.

My head is saying Wang > Meng > Diao in terms of focusing on our immediate goals and needs.

But my gut instinct when given the question of "who do we need intel on?" was Diao > Meng > Wang.
 
Audacious said:
I'm viewing it less as doing more than stabilizing and more as getting as close to guaranteeing stabilization as possible.
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yrsillar said:
Chance of Raising Wang Clan reputation.
Chance of Raising reputation with ??? Meng faction.
Stabilizes reputation at current level
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There's not dice to use a +10 roll for in the Diao Social Action. It's explicitly guaranteed. This is like when years ago the thread decided to placate Gu Xiulan out of fear she would act against us and we completely discarded Han Jian in favor of her. Only this time we have an explicit mission to approach the Weilu conservatives/moderates by our liege and have the world building bending backwards to give us commonalities with them, but instead we are putting all our cards on the people that don't like us.
 
dycouza said:
There's not dice to use a +10 roll for in the Diao Social Action. It's explicitly guaranteed. This is like when years ago the thread decided to placate Gu Xiulan out of fear she would act against us and we completely discarded Han Jian in favor of her. Only this time we have an explicit mission to approach the Weilu conservatives/moderates by our liege and have the world building bending backwards to give us commonalities with them, but instead we are putting all our cards on the people that don't like us.
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Ah I completely forgot that's how it was phrased, I'm surprised there's not an alternate reward the Diao on this vote then since it seems like a straight up worse option without the dice addition.
 
It is for all rolls during the interaction with the selected clan at the tournament
even if the main actions minimum success is guranteed there will still be rolls
gotta hoover up some of the giant pile of omake points in circulation somehow stuck_out_tongue
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From Yrs on Discord so the Diao option is still viable.
 
Erebeal said:
Blurgh, this is hard.

My head is saying Wang > Meng > Diao in terms of focusing on our immediate goals and needs.

But my gut instinct when given the question of "who do we need intel on?" was Diao > Meng > Wang.
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Will LQ need intel on the Diao over the long term? Yes, absolutely.

Does LQ need intel on the Diao right now to accomplish her short term and medium term goals? Not really. The Diao, as the Cai Clan's strongest supporters, are probably not going to go out of their way to mess with LQ, a Cai retainer, too much in the short term. If LQ gains enough political power to make the Diao feel uncomfortable about her non-peakabooness, they probably will. But that's a long term concern, so see above.

I think that building strong alliances alliances is probably the best way to deal with threats long term. And I also think that people are getting so hung up on the fact that the Diao don't like LQ that they're overlooking that, aside from the Cai (not to be underestimated, but there's still only three of them), LQ doesn't have any powerful ES allies. She just has a couple count clans who are kind of interested in her. I'd rather use the bonus here to work on making them more than just kind of interested.
 
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Juli Freixi said:
By the way, is there a chapter where all the castes of Bai are listed? I would like to reread them and I can't find it ... 😅
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In discord they were mentioned

White serpents
Black viper (butler assasins )
Red python (muscle sneks)
Green asp( rangers, also low caste)
Grey rattlers (mortals)
Violet corals (seasneks)
Yellow boa (unknown )
Blue cobra (unknown )
 
so from discord

Yrs on discord said:
It is for all rolls during the interaction with the selected clan at the tournament
even if the main actions minimum success is guranteed there will still be rolls
gotta hoover up some of the giant pile of omake points in circulation somehow
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so, either we spend omakes points on Diao or use this plus from here:V

Edit: Audacious ninjaed me :V
 
Zithinoth said:
Will LQ need intel on the Diao over the long term? Yes, absolutely.

Does LQ need intel on the Diao right now to accomplish her short term and medium term goals? Not really. The Diao, as the Cai Clan's strongest supporters, are probably not going to go out of their way to mess with LQ, a Cai retainer, too much in the short term. If LQ gains enough political power to make the Diao feel uncomfortable about her non-peakabooness, they probably will. But that's a long term concern, so see above.

I think that building strong alliances alliances is probably the best way to deal with threats long term. And I also think that people are getting so hung up on the fact that the Diao don't like LQ that they're overlooking that, aside from the Cai (not to be underestimated, but there's still only three of them), LQ doesn't have any powerful ES allies. She just has a couple count clans who are kind of interested in her. I'd rather use the bonus here to work on making them more than just kind of interested.
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Yeah, I think this is a good point.

I think something to think about in terms of immediate emotional response is that the Diao are currently someone we just don't have a good handle on, and not knowing that is annoying.

While because we've had more engagement with the Wang and Meng, it feels like we have a better handle on them, and we already have good points of interest to build relations off. So it doesn't feel as much like we really need to know more.

However, in terms of our actual goals, yeah, they're where we'd really benefit from having more intel since they're who we're going to be trying to work with here. We want a better picture of their politics to inform the decisions and likely votes we're going to be making in the coming months.
 
Valmond said:
I'm liking Hou Zhuang, not a great parent sure, but that's not necessarily a sign of a bad person, and he is actively supportive of those who would make for better parental figures for his daughter.
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I think it's a *bit* tricky to judge his quality as a parent given waves hand at the Bai Clan's... everything and he may very well be hamstrung, and that he would have minimal ability to assist his daughter.
 
 
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