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Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

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[X] Plan Diplomance North Saffron Markets Overtime
-[X] Authority: Sell Bombards, Pamplona: Does Pamplona want bombards? (75%, 1 year, profitable)
-[X] Influence: Assist Bureaucratic Reform, Pamplona: Pamplona is having increasing difficulty maintaining their heavy cavalry without giving the knights their own grazing fields. However, they have seen the direction that led the Doych, and they want to avoid it. So they have come to you seeking assistance in reforming their bureaucracy so that they may better marshal people and resources. (85%, 5 Years, +3 Pamplona Opinion, -5 for all rolls while in effect, +5 Prestige, Narrative Effects)
-[X] Influence: A Census: Knowing how many people obey you and where they actually are is a great help in doing the work of governance. (95%. 1 Year. +1 Influence)
-[X] Influence: Construct Warships, Redshore: With unified control of the Yllython shattered, there are going to be pirates and rebels in the sea closest to the core. The people need to build warships to suppress pirates and fight enemies. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[X] Influence: Construct Warships, New Blackmouth: The shipyards of New Blackmouth are once more ready and operational. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[X] Influence: Diplomatic Overview, North Saffron: You have no knowledge what barbarian powers are important in the realm of the Syffronites. In your current position of weakness that ignorance could be deadly. (85%, 1 year. Overview of North Saffron powers.)
-[X] Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)
-[X] Estimated Next Turn Statistics:
--[X] Stress: 0 --> 2
--[X] Revaunchist Actions: Construct Warships x2 (expires 1603), Pamplona reform (expires 1607)
--[X] Txollan Benefits: Banner Company deployed (indefinite), Black Sheep defense(?)
--[X] Other Notables: -5 to all rolls for 5 years

--[] Authority: 1 (unchanged)
--[] Influence: 4 --> 2-3 (likely 3)
--[] Prestige: 42 (unchanged) [+5 in 1607]
--[] Treasury: 2.6 --> 1.6

(To those who didn't catch my previous rationale, this is Plan Oshha but with a "Diplomatic Overview, North Saffron" overtime.)

Fouredged Sword said:
I am not worried about long term income. We are nearly over the hill with our guilds. At that point we get a free +1 treasury per 2 rounds. That's huge. We just need to get to that point and that mostly involves keeping steady at the tiller and aimed at invading Tinshore in about 3 years.

We only really need about 1-2 more treasury to take on Tinshore. Then an additional 3 or 4 to take on the other Yon splinters.
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I'm still worried. +1 treasury every 2 rounds pays for around one military buildup action, whereas we need two in the same period to appease the Revaunchists (probably, since it's a roll). I have doubts about our ability to survive without other funds (that said, I haven't done calculations/simulations on this, so these are just guesstimated doubts). It'd also be good to have a buffer for unexpected events.

Kiba said:
I find such assumption about North Saffron unwarranted. From looking at diplomatic profiles, it seems that there are only three powers of notes, and one of which is our soon to be friend Pomp.

Ealam is much bigger than the Kus minors, and also a target for the nomads. They also trade further East. I expect profitable off of them.
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The diplomatic profile only contains ??? for North Saffron. However, as I mentioned, I don't really mind who we diplo outreach, so:


[X] Plan Diplomance Ealam Market Overtime
-[X] Authority: Sell Bombards, Pamplona: Does Pamplona want bombards? (75%, 1 year, profitable)
-[X] Influence: Assist Bureaucratic Reform, Pamplona: Pamplona is having increasing difficulty maintaining their heavy cavalry without giving the knights their own grazing fields. However, they have seen the direction that led the Doych, and they want to avoid it. So they have come to you seeking assistance in reforming their bureaucracy so that they may better marshal people and resources. (85%, 5 Years, +3 Pamplona Opinion, -5 for all rolls while in effect, +5 Prestige, Narrative Effects)
-[X] Influence: A Census: Knowing how many people obey you and where they actually are is a great help in doing the work of governance. (95%. 1 Year. +1 Influence)
-[X] Influence: Construct Warships, Redshore: With unified control of the Yllython shattered, there are going to be pirates and rebels in the sea closest to the core. The people need to build warships to suppress pirates and fight enemies. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[X] Influence: Construct Warships, New Blackmouth: The shipyards of New Blackmouth are once more ready and operational. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[X] Influence: Diplomatic Contact, Ealam: Who are the Ealam and what do they want? (???%. 1 Year.)
-[X] Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)
-[X] Estimated Next Turn Statistics:
--[X] Stress: 0 --> 2
--[X] Revaunchist Actions: Construct Warships x2 (expires 1603), Pamplona reform (expires 1607)
--[X] Txollan Benefits: Banner Company deployed (indefinite), Black Sheep defense(?)
--[X] Other Notables: -5 to all rolls for 5 years

--[] Authority: 1 (unchanged)
--[] Influence: 4 --> 2-3 (likely 3)
--[] Prestige: 42 (unchanged) [+5 in 1607]
--[] Treasury: 2.6 --> 1.6

Edit: might change the partitioning of stats later.
 
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I forgot to adjust the DCs of the megaprojects for not having an admin hero as king.

I'll need to fix that in the manuscript going forward.
 
[] Plan Diplomance Ealam Market Overtime
[X] Plan Oshha

noncannon said:
The diplomatic profile only contains ??? for North Saffron. However, as I mentioned, I don't really mind who we diplo outreach, so:
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Another problem with Northern Saffron is that Berba controls the strait out of Saffron Sea, and they are rival to the Khem and to the Pomp. Future hostility likely impedes trade access to Northern Saffron powers.

@Aranfan what is stress and health status of our current King?

The first turn and we're already voting to stressing our king?
 
Aranfan said:
Not telling.
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I would think we get a better overview of his status given that we control his actions.

noncannon said:
-[X] Estimated Statistics:
--[X] Authority: 1 (unchanged)
--[X] Influence: 4 --> 2-3 (likely 3)
--[X] Prestige: 42 (unchanged)
--[X] Treasury: 2.6 --> 1.6
--[X] Stress: 0 --> 2
--[X] Revaunchist Actions: Construct Warships x2 (expires 1603), Pamplona reform (expires 1607)
--[X] Txollan Benefits: Banner Company deployed (indefinite), Black Sheep defense(?)
--[X] Other Notables: -5 to all rolls for 5 years
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Prestige shouldn't stay unchanged, since we get 5 points out of this.
 
noncannon said:
Several people (or at least one; I don't remember specifics) were complaining about stat changes being difficult to track over time. This seemed like a sensible way to do so, to summarize for the casual voter, and to open up to auditing for mistaken assumptions.
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Then put it in the description of your plan rather than adding fake voting and adding unnecessary bloat to the vote. The vote should only include things we are actually voting on and not a bunch of stuff that doesn't belong there. You want to put estimate changes from the plan, do what you should be doing and putting in your reasoning for your plan. If people can't be bothered to do read that, then that is on them and you shouldn't be putting fake voting into your plan.
 
noncannon said:
I'm still worried. +1 treasury every 2 rounds pays for around one military buildup action, whereas we need two in the same period to appease the Revaunchists (probably, since it's a roll). I have doubts about our ability to survive without other funds (that said, I haven't done calculations/simulations on this, so these are just guesstimated doubts). It'd also be good to have a buffer for unexpected events.
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We don't need to worry about appeasing the revanchists while we do military prep now as the warships are the last of it. Once that is done, we can focus on retaking Tinshore and Styrmyr to keep the revanchists happy and while we are doing those, we can get ready to retake Western Wall and while we are retaking Ythllyon, we can prepare for retaking Thunder Plateau. We needed to get the money to pay for the war preparations and now we got the money, we need to do the war prep.

Long term income is probably still a concern depending on how things turn out, but not until about 1610 and right now, we need to focus on war prep so we can get on with restoring the Ymaryn Empire to keep the revanchists happy and not sending us down a death spiral.

Edit: I'm not actually arguing against your plan, just trying to clarify what I think our current and future concerns are.

Edit 2: Right now, our concerns is getting our Authority/Influence higher. We only got 2 Authority/5 Influence out of a possible 10 combined. Census can give us more Influence as can doing well in the war, but doing badly in the war can cost our Influence as can some very bad luck with the revanchist rolls. So long as things don't go really badly, we can get by with Probably Profitable actions and trying to expand into new markets isn't actually helpful due to the toll it takes on our action economy due to taking 3-4 actions over that many years until we get the money. We have semi-sorted our military, economy and action concerns, but we still have to balance handling all three and while accessing new markets is good for our money concerns, it is too costly on our action economy to be worth it.
 
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@Cyanblackstone That's bloody sweet! It might be PoI-canonizable as well.

I'm not sure if Highlander Cypress makes sense... can't remember if there was anything in canon about it.

Oshha said:
We don't need to worry about appeasing the revanchists while we do military prep now as the warships are the last of it. Once that is done, we can focus on retaking Tinshore and Styrmyr to keep the revanchists happy and while we are doing those, we can get ready to retake Western Wall and while we are retaking Ythllyon, we can prepare for retaking Thunder Plateau. We needed to get the money to pay for the war preparations and now we got the money, we need to do the war prep.

Long term income is probably still a concern depending on how things turn out, but not until about 1610 and right now, we need to focus on war prep so we can get on with restoring the Ymaryn Empire to keep the revanchists happy and not sending us down a death spiral.

Edit: I'm not actually arguing against your plan, just trying to clarify what I think our current and future concerns are.

Edit 2: Right now, our concerns is getting our Authority/Influence higher. We only got 2 Authority/5 Influence out of a possible 10 combined. Census can give us more Influence as can doing well in the war, but doing badly in the war can cost our Influence as can some very bad luck with the revanchist rolls. So long as things don't go really badly, we can get by with Probably Profitable actions and trying to expand into new markets isn't actually helpful due to the toll it takes on our action economy due to taking 3-4 actions over that many years until we get the money. We have semi-sorted our military, economy and action concerns, but we still have to balance handling all three and while accessing new markets is good for our money concerns, it is too costly on our action economy to be worth it.
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So, I'm also considering (though maybe spitballing is a better characterization) some concerns:

How confident are we in the 0 cost War Missions? From what I can see, any form of levy costs at least 1 Treasury / year, and we're invading former provinces who have their own levies (meaning I don't necessarily expect to win within a single year). We have 4 maybe-profitables to sell to; assuming the same expected value of 0.625, that's an expected 2.5 Treasury. Some others might start wanting bombards again so call it 3-4 Treasury. We currently have 1.6 treasury, so we can sustain about 4-5 levies.

If we steamroll, we can get Influence, yes, but if it drains our Treasury too hard, then we can't afford more levies without selling bombards, which would've required us to have made overtures in the past, around now-ish. (If we can't afford a levy, we also can't afford military build-up to appease the Revanchivists, which means we start losing influence regardless.)

An alternative, then, is to further delay this turn, explore North Saffron (hopefully they have several major powers wanting guns), and using the additional funds, either build up more Banner Companies for quality, or just save up. Banner Companies would also address Txolla concerns (Aranfan never replied to my question asking whether the invasion does).

Oshha said:
You want to put estimate changes from the plan, do what you should be doing and putting in your reasoning for your plan. If people can't be bothered to do read that, then that is on them and you shouldn't be putting fake voting into your plan.
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I might take your advice, as Kiba's snapshot practice seems a more efficient track-keeper for the most part. It doesn't, however, keep track of all relevant stats.
 
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noncannon said:
How confident are we in the 0 cost War Missions? From what I can see, any form of levy costs at least 1 Treasury / year, and we're invading former provinces who have their own levies (meaning I don't necessarily expect to win within a single year). We have 4 maybe-profitables to sell to; assuming the same expected value of 0.625, that's an expected 2.5 Treasury. Some others might start wanting bombards again so call it 3-4 Treasury. We currently have 1.6 treasury, so we can sustain about 4-5 levies.
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A levy doesn't cost us 1 treasury / year. Mass levy does. Notice that we didn't lose further treasury after we sent a levy to Txolla. Also, it's quite pointless for us to send standard army against rebel provinces who is sending out many out more men than us who will fight for their home.

noncannon said:
An alternative, then, is to further delay this turn, explore North Saffron (hopefully they have several major powers with guns), and using the additional funds, either build up more Banner Companies for quality, or just save up. Banner Companies would also address Txolla concerns (Aranfan never replied to my question asking whether the invasion does).
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I think it's generally a waste of time to explore Northern Saffron if we don't have secure access. Berbar rivals Khemetri and Pomp, while WW is blocking all the river access and generally hostile to us.
 
[X] Plan Diplomance North Saffron Markets Overtime

I personally hope we stick with the real-world map, seeing as the 'warped' ones make very little sense geographically, and geography is so critical to the functioning and understanding of civilizations.
 
noncannon said:
How confident are we in the 0 cost War Missions? From what I can see, any form of levy costs at least 1 Treasury / year, and we're invading former provinces who have their own levies (meaning I don't necessarily expect to win within a single year). We have 4 maybe-profitables to sell to; assuming the same expected value of 0.625, that's an expected 2.5 Treasury. Some others might start wanting bombards again so call it 3-4 Treasury. We currently have 1.6 treasury, so we can sustain about 4-5 levies.

If we steamroll, we can get Influence, yes, but if it drains our Treasury too hard, then we can't afford more levies without selling bombards, which would've required us to have made overtures in the past, around now. (If we can't afford a levy, we also can't afford military build-up to appease the Revanchivists, which means we start losing influence regardless.)

An alternative, then, is to further delay this turn, explore North Saffron (hopefully they have several major powers with guns), and using the additional funds, either build up more Banner Companies for quality, or just save up. Banner Companies would also address Txolla concerns (Aranfan never replied to my question asking whether the invasion does).
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First of all, only a Mass Levy costs 1 Treasury a year while a City Levy just costs 1 Treasury upfront and so far, a single City Levy has proven sufficient alongside a War Mission. As for expected expenses, going to Probably Profitable markets should prove sufficient for giving us enough Treasury to keep above the loss we get from our Income and is either as action efficient as seeking out markets or more so. Now, we will eventually need to seek out new markets, but right now, going to existing ones satisfies us financially and benefits our currently limited action economy better. It isn't the most efficient profit wise to go for existing Probably Profitable markets, but it is the best for how we spend our Influence.

In terms of pure money, you are probably right about going to new markets (wrong if we get good rolls on Probable Profits or right if we get bad rolls) and it does benefit in the long run, but right now existing markets is best for our short term needs and those short term needs to need addressing to ensure long term survival. If it didn't take 3 to 4 years & Influence, I would support going to new markets, but we are better off spending their Influence on existing markets and hoping to get good rolls.
 
Kiba said:
A levy doesn't cost us 1 treasury / year. Mass levy does. Notice that we didn't lose further treasury after we sent a levy to Txolla. Also, it's quite pointless for us to send standard army against rebel provinces who is sending out many out more men than us who will fight for their home.
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Alright, I'll assume this is the case.

It still costs 1 Treasury to send a levy against each polity (Western Wall, Stymyr, Tinshore), so that's 3 of the estimated 4-5 available used for sure. I can't remember if Western Wall requires a mass levy or not, which would drain the rest.

Failure would also reduce our buffer to 0-1.

On the bright side, the guilds give us +1 Treasury every 2 years (assuming we time our first invasion so as to start around the 3-5 year mark), so that probably increases our buffer by 1-2 (maybe 3, if we time it for exactly the 5 year mark). [Or should this be counted as a buffer for at-home concerns?]

I'll have to think more on this. I'm sort of seeing why Oshha wants to invade Tinshore (and maybe Greenshore), easy targets, for action economy. As long as we can able to pause to recover our Treasury, without setting off the Revanchists (so we'll need a buffer for rebuilding), it's a good idea.

Kiba said:
I think it's generally a waste of time to explore Northern Saffron if we don't have secure access. Berbar rivals Khemetri and Pomp, while WW is blocking all the river access and generally hostile to us.
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Is there any reason Berbar wouldn't want us to pass through (aside from our not knowing them/selling to them, which we should remedy)? If we sell to the North Saffrons, presumably it might put pressure on their rivals the Pamplona.
 
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[X] Plan Diplomance North Saffron Markets Overtime

New king needs to put the hours in. This one isn't a hero so if he dies a little early he dies a little early.
 
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