Victoria Falls: A Post-Collapse American Nation Quest [Down With Victoria!]

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] Blackwell has overplayed his hand; by calling a muster at Rochester, he's given you a concrete target. If you move out to the city with your motorized forces, you should be able cut the forces there off from supply and communications, and force a decisive battle with your superior forces. The risk is that they get enough warning to simply, leaving you very overextended and vulnerable to attacks on your own supply lines.


[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] If you can make it unacceptable for Blackwell to keep waiting you out, he'll be forced to attack you, guaranteeing you a crushing, heavily symbolic victory. Put about on public broadcast announcements that you're planning to recognize Buffalo and surrounds -- including the Niagara Isthmus -- as an independent and free city, and are organizing elections to that effect. Blackwell absolutely could not ignore that, and would be politically required to launch an attack immediately, which would get him slaughtered. The downside is that you'd need to get the population out, because anybody remaining behind would have a death sentence on their heads. Something to demand in the peace treaty after you crush Blackwell's assault, in exchange for returning the physical location to him. Also...well, this looks fairly callous, and being used as bait for a trap won't really make the people of Buffalo grateful, much less being relocated from their homes under threat of death afterwards. And if you don't get peace, somehow, you're in the nasty position of having to evacuate a city under siege using your logistics...or leaving it.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] Blackwell wants to avoid your main strength and strike where you are weak? Two can play at that game. Advance a couple of divisions as tripwires against an assault from Rochester and disperse the rest into upstate New York. Tear up the industrial infrastructure Blackwell needs to fight these wars, and he will be forced to respond, allowing you to draw him out to battle on your own terms. The risk is that, when he responds, he managed to find a favorable engagement and bleed you enough that the victory you're seeking is denied.

[X] This isn't worth it. Call for peace with the Loyalists and accept that they will be able to use this travesty as a victory for leverage in negotiations. Victoria will present a peace plan. It will be significantly better for them than what you offered. You get to choose to accept or reject it. Negotiations will keep you locked up long enough that snow will be on the ground and practical campaigning will be done with.

It's not defeatism to admit we've already accomplished the most important part (not dying to Victoria) and it's not worth it to get deeper in for small improvements. The peace treaty isn't worth much because it won't last, anyway. Let's go back home right now and prepare for round two.

If not for the near-guarantee that "Peace Now" means Blackwell increases the frequency of atrocities, I'd jump it in a heartbeat.

But as-is, none of the existing plans for continuing the fight appeal to me.

I kind of want something that blends the defined timeline of the "out by spring" plan with the civvie evac plan from the "declare Buffalo its own nation" plan.

Nyvis said:

It's not defeatism to admit we've already accomplished the most important part (not dying to Victoria) and it's not worth it to get deeper in for small improvements. The peace treaty isn't worth much because it won't last, anyway. Let's go back home right now and prepare for round two.

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Your strategy of "hide from Russia" is not compatible with the reality of the quest and plot developments. I don't mean to be harsh, but just...consider the plot developments in the story so far?

Also saying the peace treaty isn't worth much because it won't last...I mean, look at the concrete, specific developments that can be obtained from it? If that's your worry, you can vote for useful and specific items to be delivered as part of it rather than promises?

Other than literally everything concrete that can be gained- an entire wishlist- and ways to both expand influence in ways that are otherwise currently impossible, never mind the humanitarian and PR concerns we can address.

It's not based on the facts to say a peace treaty "isn't worth much".

KnightDisciple said:

If not for the near-guarantee that "Peace Now" means Blackwell increases the frequency of atrocities, I'd jump it in a heartbeat.

But as-is, none of the existing plans for continuing the fight appeal to me.

I kind of want something that blends the defined timeline of the "out by spring" plan with the civvie evac plan from the "declare Buffalo its own nation" plan.

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I mean, you could declare for Buffalo, then? The out by spring is kinda implied by the forced deadlines anyway thanks to the, ah, loyal opposition so that seems to be what you're after.

Keep in mind that right now, we're actually better equipped for Victoria's "fourth-generation warfare" than Victoria itself. The entire professional core of the Victorian army was destroyed and all they're left with is undisciplined milita, while we have 4 Toledan divisions trained and equipped in Victorian style warfare. As long as we're not stupid about it, raiding tactics should be effective.

Arcus said:

Keep in mind that right now, we're actually better equipped for Victoria's "fourth-generation warfare" than Victoria itself. The entire professional core of the Victorian army was destroyed and all they're left with is undisciplined milita, while we have 4 Toledan divisions trained and equipped in Victorian style warfare. As long as we're not stupid about it, raiding tactics should be effective.

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Oh dear god, the Victorian analysts would probably go nuts over that development after the fact.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] Blackwell has overplayed his hand; by calling a muster at Rochester, he's given you a concrete target. If you move out to the city with your motorized forces, you should be able cut the forces there off from supply and communications, and force a decisive battle with your superior forces. The risk is that they get enough warning to simply, leaving you very overextended and vulnerable to attacks on your own supply lines.

We should try to attack immediately. We have a brief window of time to make this work, and it's important to demonstrate to Victoria that this kind of behavior is not going to deter us. Once that's done, then we call for peace, whatever the results are.

I do not want to protract this. It's politically problematic and basically a waste of AP.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] If you can make it unacceptable for Blackwell to keep waiting you out, he'll be forced to attack you, guaranteeing you a crushing, heavily symbolic victory. Put about on public broadcast announcements that you're planning to recognize Buffalo and surrounds -- including the Niagara Isthmus -- as an independent and free city, and are organizing elections to that effect. Blackwell absolutely could not ignore that, and would be politically required to launch an attack immediately, which would get him slaughtered. The downside is that you'd need to get the population out, because anybody remaining behind would have a death sentence on their heads. Something to demand in the peace treaty after you crush Blackwell's assault, in exchange for returning the physical location to him. Also...well, this looks fairly callous, and being used as bait for a trap won't really make the people of Buffalo grateful, much less being relocated from their homes under threat of death afterwards. And if you don't get peace, somehow, you're in the nasty position of having to evacuate a city under siege using your logistics...or leaving it.

Seems like the most likely option to finally end this miserable campaign. Bad for Buffalo, but given that we will have to return them to Victoria anyways, it ain't like the other options are any better for them. Also bad for PR, but i am willing to take a hit there just to make sure we get this over with.

Ugolino said:

I mean, you could declare for Buffalo, then? The out by spring is kinda implied by the forced deadlines anyway thanks to the, ah, loyal opposition so that seems to be what you're after.

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That option does not declare any sort of timeline, so I will not assume or imply anything about it.

Nyvis said:

[X] This isn't worth it. Call for peace with the Loyalists and accept that they will be able to use this travesty as a victory for leverage in negotiations. Victoria will present a peace plan. It will be significantly better for them than what you offered. You get to choose to accept or reject it. Negotiations will keep you locked up long enough that snow will be on the ground and practical campaigning will be done with.

It's not defeatism to admit we've already accomplished the most important part (not dying to Victoria) and it's not worth it to get deeper in for small improvements. The peace treaty isn't worth much because it won't last, anyway. Let's go back home right now and prepare for round two.

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Right now we're riding the wave of "they absolutely destroyed Victoria, holy shit". This campaign may have been ill advised, but bowing out right now, on Victorian terms no less, is going to look pretty fucking dumb to outside observers, right as we're trying to court international opinion and break the myth of Victorian invincibility.

Ugolino said:

I'm just going to note that if Victorian cities undergoing regime change is a problem then we may as well throw in the towel now for the quest. If you're worried about optics, making the case for "Victoria is bad" is its own thing, no?

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The locals were already seriously spooked before we went and invaded Victoria and forced them to sign the treaty we wanted. Also, we didn't invade Victoria because they were Victoria - we invaded them specifically because the Victorians did something we didn't want them to. I'm sure they'll be perfectly fine with the thought that we don't actually care what they think their government should be - their rulers haven't done things we didn't want them to like embargoing us, selling us food at astronomical margins when we were starving, or selling Victorians critical supplies so they'd be perfectly safe. Nothing to worry about whatsoever.

[X] This isn't worth it. Call for peace with the Loyalists and accept that they will be able to use this travesty as a victory for leverage in negotiations. Victoria will present a peace plan. It will be significantly better for them than what you offered. You get to choose to accept or reject it. Negotiations will keep you locked up long enough that snow will be on the ground and practical campaigning will be done with.

KnightDisciple said:

That option does not declare any sort of timeline, so I will not assume or imply anything about it.

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@PoptartProdigy

Is a timeline implicit in that vote option due to the Farmers making threats about what happens if this drags on?

Chronic said:

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] If you can make it unacceptable for Blackwell to keep waiting you out, he'll be forced to attack you, guaranteeing you a crushing, heavily symbolic victory. Put about on public broadcast announcements that you're planning to recognize Buffalo and surrounds -- including the Niagara Isthmus -- as an independent and free city, and are organizing elections to that effect. Blackwell absolutely could not ignore that, and would be politically required to launch an attack immediately, which would get him slaughtered. The downside is that you'd need to get the population out, because anybody remaining behind would have a death sentence on their heads. Something to demand in the peace treaty after you crush Blackwell's assault, in exchange for returning the physical location to him. Also...well, this looks fairly callous, and being used as bait for a trap won't really make the people of Buffalo grateful, much less being relocated from their homes under threat of death afterwards. And if you don't get peace, somehow, you're in the nasty position of having to evacuate a city under siege using your logistics...or leaving it.

Seems like the most likely option to finally end this miserable campaign. Bad for Buffalo, but given that we will have to return them to Victoria anyways, it ain't like the other options are any better for them. Also bad for PR, but i am willing to take a hit there just to make sure we get this over with.

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It's a pity we can't see if they'd vote for being a free city themselves, since that's a bit less problematic. Ah well.

me.me.here said:

The locals were already seriously spooked before we went and invaded Victoria and forced them to sign the treaty we wanted. Also, we didn't invade Victoria because they were Victoria - we invaded them specifically because the Victorians did something we didn't want them to. I'm sure they'll be perfectly fine with the thought that we don't actually care what they think their government should be - their rulers haven't done things we didn't want them to like embargoing us, selling us food at astronomical margins when we were starving, or selling Victorians critical supplies so they'd be perfectly safe. Nothing to worry about whatsoever.

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I mean, "Victorian collaboration" needs to be ended one way or the other, anyway, so...I'm not really seeing the drawback here other than making sure our reasoning is very clear.

Ugolino said:

I mean, "Victorian collaboration" needs to be ended one way or the other, anyway, so...I'm not really seeing the drawback here other than making sure our reasoning is very clear.

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Okay then - you're free to advocate for invading and conquering our neighbors at the drop of a hat or for retroactive stuff. Just don't expect that to be a very popular opinion when we try and convince people on the Mississippi to let our trade ships through.

Ugolino said:

Your strategy of "hide from Russia" is not compatible with the reality of the quest and plot developments. I don't mean to be harsh, but just...consider the plot developments in the story so far?

Also saying the peace treaty isn't worth much because it won't last...I mean, look at the concrete, specific developments that can be obtained from it? If that's your worry, you can vote for useful and specific items to be delivered as part of it rather than promises?

Other than literally everything concrete that can be gained- an entire wishlist- and ways to both expand influence in ways that are otherwise currently impossible, never mind the humanitarian and PR concerns we can address.

It's not based on the facts to say a peace treaty "isn't worth much".

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The most valuable part of peace, by far, is not being at war

me.me.here said:

Okay then - you're free to advocate for invading and conquering our neighbors at the drop of a hat or for retroactive stuff. Just don't expect that to be a very popular opinion when we try and convince people on the Mississippi to let our trade ships through.

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Are you reading?

...I'm advocating for treating Victoria as a valid military target and a glorified bunch of bandits extorting the rest of the continent, explaining as such, and nudging people towards not being Victorian vassals through diplomacy, incentives and killing every Victorian saboteur (you know, the ones that have the deaths of countless would-be successor states on their hands?) we can wherever we can get away with it- or by getting to the point and wiping Victoria itself off the map.

Nyvis said:

The most valuable part of peace, by far, is not being at war

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Not really. You're still going to be at war with Victoria as long as it exists, no matter what. It knows you exist, and so does Russia. You are never going to have a genuine peace with Victoria worth the name.

I'm am somewhat concerned by the prospect fo dividing our army to destroy Victorian infrastructure. Sure, we have a good chance of detecting Blackwell's troop movements before he can mop each of our groups up one by one, but we have no idea where the Cursaders even are.

Ugolino said:

Not really. You're still going to be at war with Victoria as long as it exists, it knows you exist, and so does Russia. You are never going to have a genuine peace with Victoria worth the name.

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A truce is still very valuable because we have a lot of work to do back home to be ready for the next open conflict.

Nyvis said:

A truce is still very valuable because we have a lot of work to do back home to be ready for the next open conflict.

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Work that will be made harder by not waiting for one turn. Nothing you want to do matters that much, right this second. Definitely not enough to give the Victorians endorsement for the Buffalo Massacre.

Ugolino said:

Work that will be made harder by not waiting for one turn. Nothing you want to do matters that much, right this second. Definitely not enough to give the Victorians endorsement for the Buffalo Massacre.

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I'm not convinced we won't be in the same situation next turn. This is entirely reliant on them taking bait they shouldn't take.

Just a thought: I don't think that arguments like "We can't let Victoria think that sacrificing civilians is an OK tactic." are valid.
This is Victoria. They are goddamned monsters, down to their very core.
Shit like this is something they'd absolutely pull off again, even if it doesn't work here. Atrocities are an integral part of their toolkit.

Besides, current criticism came from getting into a bloody fight without any explicit need. Trying to bluff a nation for more goodies, at the cost of civilian casualties. Pointless waste, as they'd put it.
Next war? Most likely the final confrontation with Victoria. If they learn to use civilian tripmines? It won't matter- we'll be there to solve the problem at it's root, and those atrocities will be a grim side-effect of that.

Now, stuff like international opinion of us and the general symbolism of giving up because of that sort of tactic? That is very valid here, and is my main reason I support not pulling out yet.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] Blackwell has overplayed his hand; by calling a muster at Rochester, he's given you a concrete target. If you move out to the city with your motorized forces, you should be able cut the forces there off from supply and communications, and force a decisive battle with your superior forces. The risk is that they get enough warning to simply, leaving you very overextended and vulnerable to attacks on your own supply lines.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] If you can make it unacceptable for Blackwell to keep waiting you out, he'll be forced to attack you, guaranteeing you a crushing, heavily symbolic victory. Put about on public broadcast announcements that you're planning to recognize Buffalo and surrounds -- including the Niagara Isthmus -- as an independent and free city, and are organizing elections to that effect. Blackwell absolutely could not ignore that, and would be politically required to launch an attack immediately, which would get him slaughtered. The downside is that you'd need to get the population out, because anybody remaining behind would have a death sentence on their heads. Something to demand in the peace treaty after you crush Blackwell's assault, in exchange for returning the physical location to him. Also...well, this looks fairly callous, and being used as bait for a trap won't really make the people of Buffalo grateful, much less being relocated from their homes under threat of death afterwards. And if you don't get peace, somehow, you're in the nasty position of having to evacuate a city under siege using your logistics...or leaving it.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] Blackwell wants to avoid your main strength and strike where you are weak? Two can play at that game. Advance a couple of divisions as tripwires against an assault from Rochester and disperse the rest into upstate New York. Tear up the industrial infrastructure Blackwell needs to fight these wars, and he will be forced to respond, allowing you to draw him out to battle on your own terms. The risk is that, when he responds, he managed to find a favorable engagement and bleed you enough that the victory you're seeking is denied.

Nyvis said:

I'm not convinced we won't be in the same situation next turn. This is entirely reliant on them taking bait they shouldn't take.

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The Farmers are acting as a timer for the Victorians in this so there honestly is no reason to expect this to drag on. Poptart's spelled out that how this ends depends on the military.

If you're worried they might not take the bait, you can vote for Free City of Buffalo. It's not my preferred approach since it does abuse the people somewhat, but it does guarantee a confrontation on our terms per GM confirmation at the cost of needing to do what we were going to have to do anyway on humanitarian grounds.

[X] This was not a decisive blow, merely a painful setback. It wasn't even a defeat! You achieved your operational objectives and pushed out the forces responsible for this. Operations will continue. Continue the war, now racing internal dissent as well as Loyalist pressure.
-[X] Blackwell wants to avoid your main strength and strike where you are weak? Two can play at that game. Advance a couple of divisions as tripwires against an assault from Rochester and disperse the rest into upstate New York. Tear up the industrial infrastructure Blackwell needs to fight these wars, and he will be forced to respond, allowing you to draw him out to battle on your own terms. The risk is that, when he responds, he managed to find a favorable engagement and bleed you enough that the victory you're seeking is denied.

PurposefulZephyr said:

Just a thought: I don't think that arguments like "We can't let Victoria think that sacrificing civilians is an OK tactic." are valid.
This is Victoria. They are goddamned monsters, down to their very core.
Shit like this is something they'd absolutely pull off again, even if it doesn't work here. Atrocities are an integral part of their toolkit.

Besides, current criticism came from getting into a bloody fight without any explicit need. Trying to bluff a nation for more goodies, at the cost of civilian casualties. Pointless waste, as they'd put it.
Next war? Most likely the final confrontation with Victoria. If they learn to use civilian tripmines? It won't matter- we'll be there to solve the problem at it's root, and those atrocities will be a grim side-effect of that.

Now, stuff like international opinion of us and the general symbolism of giving up because of that sort of tactic? That is very valid here, and is my main reason I support not pulling out yet.

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I mean, yes, Victoria would always commit war crimes. But they will also do what they know/believe works, above and beyond that baseline behavior.

You don't want to let them know they can do this and get rewarded for it because they don't need that encouragement to do it even more than they otherwise would.