ok,
@Simon_Jester and
@uju32 , you have NEARLY convinced me. Your arguments do make sense after all.
I'll wait for poptart's infopost, just in case. if Russian intervention is showed as likely I'll probably change to one of the limited assault plans.
Wait, did
@PoptartProdigy promise us an infopost on the likelihood of Russian support for the Viks?
[oh cool]
Still, couldn't we do something like "siege, if Russia starts sending resources go full assault"? We wouldn't need much time to attack if we were prepared, and if we attacked quickly enough they might not have the time to sort and distribute whatever supplies they get.
Firstly, we'd need to keep our troops at constant high readiness to launch a huge attack at any moment on very short notice. That's actually kind of difficult. Normally you make a plan to launch an offensive on "Day D, Hour H" and everyone spends a while getting ready, then goes all "GO GO GO!"
But to do what you're proposing, we'd need to get everyone ready then go "wait for it, waaait for it..." and be constantly ready to attack on short notice at any time. For weeks. Or months. This presents some problems. We'd be keeping large stockpiles of supplies in forward positions ready to go, potentially where the Victorians can hit them with mortars. Our field commanders will be sending messages like "uh hey, I know we're supposed to be constantly ready to go, but some of my technicals are starting to make funny noises from the engine block, can I send them back to the maintenance depot for a few days?" Our troops would become psychologically stressed, knowing that they may be expected at any moment to fight a huge battle, but not knowing when that battle will come.
...
Secondly, it is alarmingly possible that the Russians will hand out
the good stuff. Modern antitank rockets capable of blowing up our tanks (and what they'll do to our technicals doesn't bear thinking on). Infantry body armor. Deadlier antipersonnel munitions for the Victorian mortars. We'd have a
very narrow window between the moment we realize that the Victorians are getting supplies (deniable or otherwise) direct from Russia, and the moment at which we realize that the Victorians have suddenly become much harder targets, more revitalized and combat-ready.
...
Thirdly, once the Russians are supplying the pocketed Victorian troops, there are likely to be Russian nationals present on the ground in the territory the Victorians occupy. This may greatly complicate our efforts to cut their supplies during an assault, and presents the risk that we'll end up killing Russian nationals (excuse me, "aid workers" and "observers") in the process of beating the Victorians- which in turn makes the Russians more likely to come back for revenge in the short to medium term.
Of course this gives them time to entrench their position, but at the same time it comes with the mental pressure of a prolonged siege without no certainty of reinforcements, and a possibility of mutinies, diseases, possibly starting stages of starvation depending on how much food they currently have..
I mean,
yes. But at the same time, if the Russians (or even the Victorians just hiring cargo jets on their own) somehow turn that around and re-open a supply line, a lot of that pressure is relieved.
Plus,
RIGHT NOW they are under an entirely different kind of pressure. The army that went northeast to attack through Essex County just disappeared in a burst of screaming and "WHY GOD WHY!?" Then their attack slogged through constant harassment and shelling, and when they made contact suddenly took the worst casualties a Victorian force has suffered since the 2040s (well, aside from the Essex County campaign), shattering multiple infantry divisions. The CMC, which is supposed to be the mighty, nigh-irrresistible spearhead, was broken. Killed.
Entirely. They're dead. They're all dead.
The rest of the tanks are driving north now. They will never come back.
Right on the heels of that, the Victorians are going to be under a kind of pressure that has a certain... momentum... all its own. Terror. The knowledge that every force that's ever made contact with the Commonwealth was shattered and
gone within no more than two weeks of the first full-scale exchanges of fire.
If we settle in for a siege, we give the surviving Victorians some time to adjust to that. Time to establish a new routine, a 'new normal.' Miserable as those conditions may be, they represent stability and sameness rather than chaos and terror. A chance for men who are on the edge of total panic to get a grip on themselves, for officers to provide reassurance to their troops, and for the remaining CMC commissars to make sure all the officers are still reliable.
I expect Victorian morale to follow a zig-zag shape if we go with this plan. It's been going down and will continue to do so for a while, but then will partially improve after weeks and weeks pass with no aggressive pressure from the Commonwealth troops. Viks will start to whisper "maybe whatever they did is something they can't do twice." If
and only if we can keep their supply line cut, their morale eventually start to fall again, as the food and supplies wear out and the psychological pressure increases.
Also, how hard would it be to hit the cargo once it's parachuted with our current artillery?
Doesn't that depend on where they airdrop it? Consider that they DO control quite a bit of land that's completely out of artillery range from both our gunboats on the lake and our artillery positions that we'll be setting up north of the Raisin River for this offensive.
I'm pretty sure we aren't going to be able to shell Toledo Express Airport, in other words.
So, Russian intervention.
They have never committed actual military forces as a cobelligerent. Naval support, sometimes, air power, occasionally, but never in direct hostilities. Russia has never fired shots in anger at an American successor. They blockaded the Pacific Republic, but that stayed cold.
Sara Goldblum:
"Shots
in cold blood, now..."
[clenches angry fist]
[but anyway]
Your Department of State believes that, with the situation as it stands, had you not given foreign reporters and observers the go-ahead on watching the action, Russia would already be flying over massive cargo planes with Russian flags on the wings to ensure that the last-standers have an untouchable supply pipeline.
DING DING DING.
But you did allow the foreigners to observe, and they have communicated home firsthand reports of you wiping out a CMC division and killing thousands of soldiers before withdrawing in good order. They have communicated the Victorians committing to suicide charges and last stands. They have communicated you eradicating a field army of fifty thousand. They have communicated to the outside world not only that you are going down swinging, but that you are winning.
With that kind of information, it is likely that Alex is going to be far more hesitant about openly supporting Victorian operations. Because now the international community has news that you are actually a viable challenger worth supporting.
You can't confirm any of this, but the DoS's opinion is that Alexander will likely still try homeland support or deniable material support. You can't do much about homeland support, but it would mean that anything that frees Victoria up to send still has the critical failing of arriving by Victorian naval logistics. Deniable material support...well, the example getting batted around in the thread is Russian cargo planes. If they are openly Russian, you can't touch them without giving Alexander an excuse to actually declare a right and proper war on you. If they are not, then they are Victorian transport planes having to make supply drops to troop concentrations within range of your forward SAM launchers. And if you destroy them, Russia has no formal reason to declare war.
Well yes, but they could also be Victorian transport planes landing at Toledo's airport, which is quite a ways from the Raisin River, far enough that I'm not confident our SAMs can reach that far.
None of this is to say that Russian aid is not a problem. It is, and countering it would be a feature of the siege, if you conduct a siege. But given the press you've secured for yourselves, you believe that Russia will not decide to back you into a corner by sending over their own flagged equipment to resupply the Vicks and daring you to fuck yourself by shooting them down.
That is a relief. But even their deniable aid would be a big problem for us, potentially. Big enough that I'd rather avoid the possibility.
I never said "before resupply can happen". I said it would render it moot.
If I wanted to starve the Victorians out, I would have chosen blockade.
The point is to crack them under the pressure.
The Victorians are not falling back to Toledo.
They are digging into the south bank.
We will be arriving ahead of schedule and begin building seigeworks.
The entire time shells are going to be falling on the Vics and sharpshooters are going after anyone who appears in the open.
And we will be blasting demands for surrender and other psychological warfare at them.
And, on top of it all, they are not trained for this type of warfare. They are literally trained to despise people who cower in defense.
The Vics will break. I don't know how many at a time, or in what way, but they will.
One lesson I think we should have learned from the Victorians is to never make a battle plan that depends on being able to maneuver the enemy's forces along with your own.
We
think we know how the Victorians will react. We don't
actually know how they'll react. As such, making a plan that plays entirely off their psychological state while ignoring or sidelining material factors strikes me as... unwise.
What if the Victorians
don't break? What if they dig in faster than we expect, or if our fairly limited artillery capability isn't enough to dig them out of their holes? What if they just grimly hang on, singing "A Mighty Fortress Is Our God" and blessing the "Victorian" pilots who bring them fresh food and ammunition over the rubble-strewn and cratered roads between them and the airfield at Toledo?
We don't actually control what the Victorians do in response to our actions here.
Which means that if we want to dislodge them from the south bank of the Raisin, we need to be prepared to do that by force.
