Victoria Falls: A Post-Collapse American Nation Quest [Down With Victoria!]

Simon_Jester said:

Yeah. We can blockade a boat full of Victorian military supplies headed for Toledo harbor.

We can't blockade Russian transport planes. We'd be hard pressed to even stop a nominally 'Russian' freighter full of 'humanitarian relief supplies' that are 'for the people of Toledo.'

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I am still far from convinced Russians can send enough supplies to matter within 3-5 months.
And one-two planes will not change anything strategically.

So I consider those fears overblown.

ctulhuslp said:

I am still far from convinced Russians can send enough supplies to matter within 3-5 months.
And one-two planes will not change anything strategically.

So I consider those fears overblown.

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This.

Also, IF russians interfere then I don't think it will matter much what option is combined with siege.

IF we take siege, we should try to make it the most effective AND unnerving for the Victorians, hoping they'll lose their cool and decide to go "last heroic charge" instead of "not so heroic last stand". That requires making certain they can't be resupplied, at least by Victoria itself.

IF we decide Russia's relatively quick intervention is likely, then siege is the wrong option and we should probably go with the limited assault+owe.

I think the risk of Russia's quick intervention is relatively low, so I'm fine with trying the siege.

[X] Plan: Maneuver Out of This!
[X] Plan: Maneuver Out of This! (BUT WITH BLOCKADE)

I get that it'd be better to not have to loose a military AP, but I'd be more worried that taking a riskier option than Siege could have us loose thousands more troops. We might not be likely to loose strategically here, but it's not worth the cost in lives lost to maybe save one military AP.

If we look at last turn's military options, we get:

Military Training Reform: Brings our training level from 1/5 to 2/5, but costs 4 successes with DC 50. We might get bonuses to this from the campaign, but it's hardly something urgent.

Address The Air: Build more Anti-Air. With both our air force and Victoria's mostly destroyed, this is a lot less urgent than it used to be. More important would be rebuilding our air force, but that might be gated behind Economy options or something we'd have to trade for using Diplomacy.

Annex Mackinac Island: Probably no longer an option since we succeeded with Basing Rights last turn.

Mobilize Troops: I doubt we're going to pick a fight with out neighbors right now. Or, rather, I doubt that any lf our neighbors will want to pick a fight with us.

Joint Command Structure: This is how we gained direct command of the Detroit militia. No longer relevant, though there might perhaps be a new option to make this more permanent.

Of course we'll get new options next turn. But unless we get an urgent action that we need to accomplish right away, we'll probably be fine. I think we're likely to get new medium and long-term options than something that can't wait for us to regain our lost AP.

ctulhuslp said:

I am still far from convinced Russians can send enough supplies to matter within 3-5 months.

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The requirement for supplying 6th Army at Stalingrad, an army of 265,000 men with tanks and artillery, was a minimum of 750 tons per day.
The Luftwaffe could not do it with several hundred planes.
The Russian Air Force can do it with 12 transport planes today.

ctulhuslp said:

And one-two planes will not change anything strategically.
So I consider those fears overblown.

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*Sigh*
I quote:

Performance

• Maximum speed: 900 km/h (559 mph; 486 kn)
• Maximum speed: Mach 0.82
• Range: 5,000 km (3,107 mi; 2,700 nmi) Il-76MD-90A / TD-90VD with 52,000 kg (114,640 lb) payload.

4,000 km (2,485 mi) Il-76M/T with 52,000 kg (114,640 lb) payload.
4,400 km (2,734 mi) Il-76MD/TD with 52,000 kg (114,640 lb) payload.
4,200 km (2,610 mi) Il-76MF/TF with 52,000 kg (114,640 lb) payload.

• Service ceiling: 13,000 m (43,000 ft)

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This is the Russian Airforce transport plane today, not 50 years in the future. Used by transport, paratroopers and some airlines.
52 tons of supplies delivered at a cruising speed of around 800km/hr, with a range of 5,000 km.

It can carry three light tanks at a time, as seen here

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• The Russian Air Force inherited large numbers of the aircraft from the Soviet Air Force in 1991, and 119 currently remain in service. The Russian Ministry of Defense signed a new contract for 39 Il-476 aircraft in October 2012 in a deal worth USD 4 billion.[14]

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The Russian Air Force currently operates 119 of them, and has a contract for around 39 more. There are multiple contractors and client states with more.

These planes can do multiple trips from Boston every day, the same way airlines have their planes do multiple trips.
300 tons of supplies daily just needs six daily airdrops; that's three planes doing two flights. Less than some US airlines run their domestic flights per plane. Supplying 50,000 light infantry is a cinch if they are willing to commit three aircraft.

And that assumes they're still using a hundred year old plane invented in 1974, instead of a bigger, faster version.

Again we know dickall about the international situation.
We don't know if there's a Russian corvette currently paying a visit to a Victorian port and free to enter the Great Lakes. Or if there's a free RuAF strike squadron.

Siege is not the sort of option you take without drastically better intelligence about the enemies options.

ctulhuslp said:

I am still far from convinced Russians can send enough supplies to matter within 3-5 months.
And one-two planes will not change anything strategically.

So I consider those fears overblown.

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Keeping soldiers fed and supplied with rifle ammunition is a matter of bringing in a few kilograms of supplies per man per day. The overall requirements it would take to greatly prolong Victorian resistance are measured in tens of tons per day. A squadron of transport aircraft operating from any given airport in Victorian territory and landing in Toledo will DEFINITELY be able to a lot to stretch out Victorian resistance, and would also be a low-impact way for Russia to become involved. We do NOT want Russia to become involved at all, frankly.

The Russians wouldn't even have to provide the supplies, just move what the Victorians already most likely have stockpiled, at least at first.

One or two planes landing once won't change things. One or two planes landing every day could make a very big difference indeed.

Pittauro said:

This.

Also, IF russians interfere then I don't think it will matter much what option is combined with siege.

IF we take siege, we should try to make it the most effective AND unnerving for the Victorians, hoping they'll lose their cool and decide to go "last heroic charge" instead of "not so heroic last stand". That requires making certain they can't be resupplied, at least by Victoria itself.

IF we decide Russia's relatively quick intervention is likely, then siege is the wrong option and we should probably go with the limited assault+owe.

I think the risk of Russia's quick intervention is relatively low, so I'm fine with trying the siege.

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Russia's QUICK intervention, as in "within a week or two," is relatively unlikely.

If we take two or three months to literally starve an entire army to death, there is a much higher risk that the Russians will wake up from their nap, scratch themselves, and decide to do something to stop their proxy's army from being completely destroyed.

Think about the time scale on which, in the present day, outside countries get involved in things like the various civil wars in the Middle East. Or the response to the 1991 invasion of Kuwait.

The turnaround time from "shit is going down" to "we have a policy and a plan" is usually measured in weeks. Unless of course, the matter is such a national emergency that the entire government drops everything and figures out an intervention policy in a matter of days. Our defeating a Victorian army isn't that kind of a problem for Russia, but it is the kind of problem they're likely to want some kind of a response to, if only so Alexander doesn't decide after the fact to ask awkward questions like "so you just... stood there and watched this happen? Siiigh."

If we can defeat the Victorian army within a few weeks, we have a good chance of getting inside Russia's decision loop here. We have no chance of doing that with a months-long siege; they will have all the time in the world to react, reorganize, and reposition assets capable of significantly prolonging the siege.

Found a Youtube video.
Sourced from RT, but it should give some idea what a modern Russian military transport plane is li,e


Remember, the Ilyushin 76 is a medium transport plane, designed to be flexible,and used in some sketchy airports in Africa for relief supplies. It's the relatively cheap, plentiful option for air resupply.

Heavy military transport planes are things like the
C-5M Super Galaxy, which carries 130 ton payload,
The Antonov 124 Ruslan, which carries 120 to 150 tons
The Antonov 225, which carries 250 tons


All of these planes have ranges in excess of 4000km at maximum payload on one tank of gas, and will shit out around 150 tons of supplies per trip

Aircraft supply is expensive, and can't move heavy armor or artillery in quantity.
But the Victorians do not operate heavy armor or artillery. If Russia happens to choose to go full Korean War levels of support for Victoria, we can't do shit besides ensure that the war ends before they can intervene materially.

Which is why Siege is a bad idea.

Derpmind said:

[X] Plan: Maneuver Out of This!
[X] Plan: Maneuver Out of This! (BUT WITH BLOCKADE)

I get that it'd be better to not have to loose a military AP, but I'd be more worried that taking a riskier option than Siege could have us loose thousands more troops. We might not be likely to loose strategically here, but it's not worth the cost in lives lost to maybe save one military AP.

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If it was just the military AP, I would be in agreement. However

Picture you are great lakes community. The lines of communication are shattered. So much so that, when Victoria comes with cat's paws and proxies whispering about Chicago's danger, you find it reasonable. You don't really know that the massacres didn't happen. Enough so that you embargo them, sure, part of it might be fear of Victoria, but part of it is other things. Now Chicago is fighting Victoria at Detroit and the embargo comes up.

Now let us imagine two scenarios. It is spring, oneish year after the fighting, the Victorian's are insisting the fight is ongoing, Chicago is insisting that the fighting is almost over, they have the last of the Victorian's surrounded, and will finish them off soon. The only problem is VIctoria is doing the same, saying they are pressing into the city. Who is right? You don't know. Lot of unofficial people saying both ways (not all VIctorian proxies are known).Knowing that, when Chicago says lets trade again cause the war is basically over, are you going to be well inclined to do so?

Now picture a second scenario. Chicago says the wars over, Victoria says they will keep fighting but well... People on the lakes saw the Chicago navy stream back home, fully intact. The same thing for their troops, sure the didn't stop in your community, but tends of thousands of troops taking occasional shore leave in friendly communities and celebrating isn't a small thing. Chicago is stepping down from war footing, and is showing off all kinds of captured Victoria equipment. And you still get radio broadcasts from Detroit, not like you can fake a city exists. Victoria might be insisting they are still in this but really who are you going to believe.

I'm not worried about one military AP. I'm worried about 3 free ap. Ending the embargo is going to be very different in a scenario where we have a decisive victory vs one where Victoria is still fighting and use their own network to insist it is still a full fight. I wouldn't trade thousands of lives for 1 single military AP, but for 4 (1 military, 3 free)? When 4 averted a famine, and even with 2 failures 3 ap finished the housing? Yeah, yeah I'd risk that.

Vote for ending the war.
Vote for sending our boys home.
Vote for free trade.

Vote Limited Assault 2075.

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)

[X] Plan Uranus

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Personally, I would also prefer not to use OWE, since using it to make a victory we've secured more overwhelming is not in our interested. I suspect there will be uses worth far more than thousands of lives in the future. I'd also like to avoid Rockeye because I don't really see what other forces they could send in. They arn't made of transports and our ships are intercepting them anyways. But in the event that, after we start forming a consensus, one of those becomes the only opposition to Siege, I will add my vote to it.

While I think it's worth spending a third charge of OWE to get the assault on the Victorian positions south of the Raisin over with with minimal casualties, I'm beginning to come around to the idea of compromising on this with approval votes... let me look things over.

uju32 said:

Aircraft supply is expensive, and can't move heavy armor or artillery in quantity.
But the Victorians do not operate heavy armor or artillery. If Russia happens to choose to go full Korean War levels of support for Victoria, we can't do shit besides ensure that the war ends before they can intervene materially.

Which is why Siege is a bad idea.

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I'm not even remotely worried about them going full Korean War (which would involve them deploying troops). It's important to note that the reason you and I are expressing concern over this is precisely because it is a SMALL thing for the Russians to do. A future-Russia that has global strategic reach and military power almost certainly has enough transport planes to do this readily. I suspect they have already done so in the past; it may be one of the things that even makes it possible for Victoria to launch punitive expeditions to distant parts of the country, if their soldiers begin to starve or run out of ammunition, the Russians can bail them out readily enough once the runway of the nearest large airport is cleared.
Vote Limited Assault 2075.

So its time to give a finishing blow befire the russiand help the victorians get up

[x] Plan Rockeye is uncreative about names

@uju32

Your "Plan Uranus" is effectively identical to "Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)," except for not having the "and feel free to sink the ships if you don't think it's safe to capture them" write-in clause that really isn't likely to do any harm. Have you considered approval-voting for that plan?

@QTesseract

While I honestly think that using a charge of Old World Equipment to avoid casualties during a counterattack on Victorian forces south of the Raisin is worth it, I'd much rather have a timely offensive of any kind than a protracted siege that increases the risk of the war dragging out into Turn Four (as @clockworkchaos just discussed), and that gives the Russians time to consider their options and interfere to save a large chunk of the Victorian army.

@Rockeye
@kilopi505
@Pyro Hawk
@Blackstar

Are you open to a plan that uses bombardment and "deploy all forces" but has limited assault, instead of "scouting" and "deploy available forces?" I think there's a good case to be made for 'limited assault,' but right now the vote for that is significantly fragmented.

My own reason for hesitating about "Plan Rockeye" is simply that I think having more numbers on the Huron Line to finally stop that Victorian death charge is worth it. We buy an extra day or so, casualties may well be lower, and there's no risk of using an Old World Equipment charge to buy something we could just as well have bought by calling up the Detroit Militia.

It's one thing to use Old World Equipment to buy something you can't otherwise get like "the destruction of an enemy field army that would otherwise be sitting around causing problems." It's another to use it to buy something that we could have gotten some other way.

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[X] Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)

(to paraphrase, "Needle and Hammer (No OWE)" is "Defend with all forces, limited assault with no Old World Equipment, capture the freighters, then use the fleet to bombard the Victorian positions in support of the assault.")

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer
-[X] Defend with all committable forces.
-[X] Ongoing harassment and probing attacks to force the Victorians to exhaust their supplies, followed by a decisive attack supported by Old World Equipment after they are deemed to be sufficiently weakened.
-[X] Capture the freighters if it appears possible to disable them without a threat to the overall safety of the fleet. Sink them if they put up too much of a fight to allow that, or if there is reason to think they are rigged as suicide bombs.
-[X] Full bombardment. The Navy will commit to intense shore bombardment of Victorian positions, trying to destroy as many troops and materiel as they possibly can to burn through the Victorians supplies and manpower.

So, enough people have expressed concern about Russia's response to the situation that I felt like writing up your Department of State's opinion on the topic. Incoming. Won't be formal, but it will be the canon opinion of your government.

Mazeka said:

@PoptartProdigy Please clarify if "Limited assault" uses up OWE charge entirely.

Hey @bdun140! How bad's the negaverse reacting?

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If you all pick the option to do limited assault and then use OWE to press home the final attack, it will use only one charge of OWE.

EDIT: Also, the negaverse has, alas, yet to reconvene. Soon, I'm sure.

uju32 said:

Nah, it's fine.
I figured out how to fix it.

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You have? You have! How? I'd just resigned myself to XF2 having broken it!

Simon_Jester said:

I'm not even remotely worried about them going full Korean War (which would involve them deploying troops). It's important to note that the reason you and I are expressing concern over this is precisely because it is a SMALL thing for the Russians to do. A future-Russia that has global strategic reach and military power almost certainly has enough transport planes to do this readily. I suspect they have already done so in the past; it may be one of the things that even makes it possible for Victoria to launch punitive expeditions to distant parts of the country, if their soldiers begin to starve or run out of ammunition, the Russians can bail them out readily enough once the runway of the nearest large airport is cleared.
Vote Limited Assault 2075.

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I'm less sanguine than you are about the likelihood of their deploying troops.
Even garrison troops, from them or from a client like one of the Eastern European states would allow the Vics to redeploy their remaining CMC divisions, for example, without risking one Russian soldier on the front lines.

But yes, the biggest threat is logistics. The biggest surviving superpower in the world and one that controls a third of the earth's surface will have had to build up a MASSIVE sea and air transportation capacity in order to hold and exploit all that land. Their logistic support is probably the only reason the Victorian part of the Pacific War got as far as it did.

Think how often Israel has been backstopped by the logistics capacity of the US military, most recently during the 2014 Gaza conflict when Israel tapped US stockpiles

Its such a little thing for them to do to that their doing so is basically a forgone conclusion.
Or even to compel another client state, like say Thailand, or Romania or Bulgaria, to "lend" the Vics transport planes.

armentho said:

So its time to give a finishing blow befire the russiand help the victorians get up

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This.
You either move now, or you pay later, with interest.
We remain well under the expected level of casualties we worried about in this campaign.

Simon_Jester said:

Your "Plan Uranus" is effectively identical to "Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)," except for not having the "and feel free to sink the ships if you don't think it's safe to capture them" write-in clause that really isn't likely to do any harm. Have you considered approval-voting for that plan?

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Will do.

PoptartProdigy said:

You have? You have! How? I'd just resigned myself to XF2 having broken it!

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The Voters Tally button is at the right tophand corner of the page. Right next to the Watch/Unwatch button.
Whe you open it, halfway down there is a function that says [Divide Votes]
That is separated by Block, Line et cetera.

Choose how you want to do it, then hit Tally.
It will tally up the votes, then give you the option to post it as a new post.

EDIT
If you want to include the tally into am old post, hit edit then look near the bottom of the post box. There is a box to tick.

Inserted tally

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer

[X] Plan Uranus

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer
[X] Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)

[X] Plan Uranus

uju32 said:

The Voters Tally button is at the right tophand corner of the page. Right next to the Watch/Unwatch button.
Whe you open it, halfway down there is a function that says [Divide Votes]
That is separated by Block, Line et cetera.

Choose how you want to do it, then hit Tally.
It will tally up the votes, then give you the option to post it as a new post.

EDIT
If you want to include the tally into am old post, hit edit then look near the bottom of the post box. There is a box to tick.

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No, that I knew, it just hasn't been working for me since the jump. Ah, well.

PoptartProdigy said:

No, that I knew, it just hasn't been working for me since the jump. Ah, well.

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Really?
If you can find the buttons but it's not working for you, might want to drop a note in the Technical forum.

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)

[X] Plan Uranus

ok, @Simon_Jester and @uju32 , you have NEARLY convinced me. Your arguments do make sense after all.

I'll wait for poptart's infopost, just in case. if Russian intervention is showed as likely I'll probably change to one of the limited assault plans.


Still, couldn't we do something like "siege, if Russia starts sending resources go full assault"? We wouldn't need much time to attack if we were prepared, and if we attacked quickly enough they might not have the time to sort and distribute whatever supplies they get.

Of course this gives them time to entrench their position, but at the same time it comes with the mental pressure of a prolonged siege without no certainty of reinforcements, and a possibility of mutinies, diseases, possibly starting stages of starvation depending on how much food they currently have..

And of course this is STILL the type of battle they're probably worst prepared for.

Also, how hard would it be to hit the cargo once it's parachuted with our current artillery?

Pittauro said:

Still, couldn't we do something like "siege, if Russia starts sending resources go full assault"? We wouldn't need much time to attack if we were prepared, and if we attacked quickly enough they might not have the time to sort and distribute whatever supplies they get.

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I don't believe so.

We don't have a foreign intelligence service.
We don't have a foreign diplomatic service with embassies abroad. We have no advance warning of anything besides what we're told by friendly powers.

I would not predicate a serious military operation on that sort of information.
Not when I have a choice.

Pittauro said:

Also, how hard would it be to hit the cargo once it's parachuted with our current artillery?

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We have no aerial recon.
How would we know where it lands? Or where it's moved to?

[X] Plan Needle and Hammer (No OWE)

[X] Plan Uranus

[x] Plan Rockeye is uncreative about names

So, Russian intervention.

As others have noted, it's all but a foregone conclusion that Russia will have a response to the Erie Campaign. This is their most compliant and useful puppet having its army systematically disassembled. They will respond.

The question is, how and how much?

The limit on Russian attention is not so much practicalities as it is whether they're willing to court the international response to their activities. If Alexander wanted to, fifty thousand elite soldiers would land in Augusta in a week and sail for your positions. If you assume that this situation merits an inevitable military intervention, the situation is already lost.

Happily, you are fairly certain that at this point, Alex will not be committing actual combat forces. Victoria has been hurt before. Most prominently, in the Pacific War. Russia has supported it many times, but not with outright cobelligerence. Most often, they simply abet Victorian operations.

They have never committed actual military forces as a cobelligerent. Naval support, sometimes, air power, occasionally, but never in direct hostilities. Russia has never fired shots in anger at an American successor. They blockaded the Pacific Republic, but that stayed cold.

So think about the sheer scale and immediacy of the international community's response if Russia, for the first time, commits to an actual military intervention on their puppet's behalf, something they did not even do for the Pacific War.

Russia will not commit combat forces to your theater just to save Victoria's army, not even if you give them all the time in the world.

So that leaves a few levels of response: homeland support, deniable material support, and open material support. This boils down to, respectively, propping up Victoria the nation so it can sustain greater efforts, sending Victoria equipment and telling them to pretend that they own it, and openly operating support assets on Victoria's behalf, trusting your unwillingness to escalate against Russia to keep their assets safe.

Your Department of State believes that, with the situation as it stands, had you not given foreign reporters and observers the go-ahead on watching the action, Russia would already be flying over massive cargo planes with Russian flags on the wings to ensure that the last-standers have an untouchable supply pipeline. It's cheap, it's almost risk-free from Russia's perspective, and it's a colossal pain in your ass. Low-investment, high-reward. This would be pretty risk-free, because without the foreigners, all the outside world has to go on is satellite footage and Barack Williams's broadcasts. The footage shows that you've been wreaking havoc, but nobody is going to stand up to Alexander on the basis of that little context. As for Williams, he's been persistently suspicious of the Commonwealth, and while his more defeatist statements have been censored out, he hasn't given a terribly shiny view of the conflict. Few would challenge Russia with context like that for your sake.

But you did allow the foreigners to observe, and they have communicated home firsthand reports of you wiping out a CMC division and killing thousands of soldiers before withdrawing in good order. They have communicated the Victorians committing to suicide charges and last stands. They have communicated you eradicating a field army of fifty thousand. They have communicated to the outside world not only that you are going down swinging, but that you are winning.

With that kind of information, it is likely that Alex is going to be far more hesitant about openly supporting Victorian operations. Because now the international community has news that you are actually a viable challenger worth supporting.

You can't confirm any of this, but the DoS's opinion is that Alexander will likely still try homeland support or deniable material support. You can't do much about homeland support, but it would mean that anything that frees Victoria up to send still has the critical failing of arriving by Victorian naval logistics. Deniable material support...well, the example getting batted around in the thread is Russian cargo planes. If they are openly Russian, you can't touch them without giving Alexander an excuse to actually declare a right and proper war on you. If they are not, then they are Victorian transport planes having to make supply drops to troop concentrations within range of your forward SAM launchers. And if you destroy them, Russia has no formal reason to declare war.

None of this is to say that Russian aid is not a problem. It is, and countering it would be a feature of the siege, if you conduct a siege. But given the press you've secured for yourselves, you believe that Russia will not decide to back you into a corner by sending over their own flagged equipment to resupply the Vicks and daring you to fuck yourselves by shooting them down.

Simon_Jester said:

@buli-buli believes that bombardment will help by ending the siege faster, before resupply can happen. My point is that that's not feasible. If resupply can happen at all, it'll happen if we give them months to do it in without a focused, systematic blockade of Toledo and the coastline in general. And if resupply can't happen, then it matters quite a bit less how long this siege lasts, plus the risk of it lasting more than a month or two is greatly diminished in any case.

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I never said "before resupply can happen". I said it would render it moot.

If I wanted to starve the Victorians out, I would have chosen blockade.
The point is to crack them under the pressure.

The Victorians are not falling back to Toledo.

They are digging into the south bank.

We will be arriving ahead of schedule and begin building seigeworks.

The entire time shells are going to be falling on the Vics and sharpshooters are going after anyone who appears in the open.

And we will be blasting demands for surrender and other psychological warfare at them.

And, on top of it all, they are not trained for this type of warfare. They are literally trained to despise people who cower in defense.

The Vics will break. I don't know how many at a time, or in what way, but they will.