So now, 7 months ago I wrote a post, on Karen's motivations on both the Vow, and how she acted right before Gaia gave the offer to switch.
However, I wrote it before the Crossroads update actually came out in thread (read it in the beta workshop
), and so didn't post it as soon as I finished it as per usual.
Then somehow forgot to post it at all
.
Anyway since we are talking about Karen right now, and an offer of alliance, I feel it prudent to talk about her so:
On the Vow
The first thing to look at is what the situation is.
Cerys had been gone for six days, kidnapped by Gaia, when the last MG kidnapped that way never returned. Because the Perluda attacked she had to try to replace Cerys (with Daiyu), because she couldn't afford to wait longer on the off chance Cerys would return.
However, giving up on someone after being MIA for six days, and trying to replace them
hurts and so damages Cerys trust in her.
This moment was the moment that Cerys either stays with her or leaves.
She wants an unbreakable guarantee that her sister will be cared for to the best of her ability, or her most trusted person's ability, if Karen dies.
Logically, refusing to do so, or refusing to go to the closest thing, will make Cerys feel even more betrayed, like Karen's original promise to take care of Una when they first met was
false.
This would
probably end up with Cerys leaving the clocktower, with a grudge against
Karen specifically.
The second thing to note is how
utterly absurd what Cerys requested actually is, from Karen's Point of View.
That is even ignoring the fact that she wanted Karen to make the guarantee for her most trusted person, and making a guarantee for another is impossible in this case.
This is of course assuming, Karen cannot simply loophole that with the logic that the person Karen trusts the most is
herself, which would result in it just being a guarantee about her.
Which technically is a valid loophole
.
Now also consider that Karen is the head of an organization that spans and controls several countries.
That Karen, who has made herself immortal, is one who is very much not someone who wants to die at any time,
ever, if she can help it.
If she has to do something to meet the condition of caring for Una to the best of her ability (rescuing her, accompanying her somewhere), etc at a time when the clocktower is in a state of emergency, or she has to deal with something important regarding it, would she sacrifice the organization she has spent decades building up, that allows her to be one of the most powerful people in the world not even including her magical abilities?
Would she be willing to sacrifice her life, walking into a trap in an attempt to save Una to the best of her ability?
The answer is
no.
She wouldn't and so would suffer the negative effects of the geas, making her weaker, taking away her edge that allows her to be on top of the world, so that something can knock her down.
Furthermore, since Karen is obviously a person who sees immortality as better than mortality, wouldn't caring for Una to the best of her abilities involve making her immortal if possible?
Then it is a matter of Karen having to care for Una
to the best of her ability for the
rest of their immortal lives or else suffer greater and greater maluses each time she fails to do so.
On the other hand, not coming up with an unbreakable guarantee or a Geas would end up with Cerys leaving.
Which would end up with Daiyu leaving, and Sabina leaving.
She'd lose three of her greatest pieces in the upcoming conflicts ahead of her.
That is unacceptable.
So instead she must lie, convincingly.
We knew, from the very first time we met her that she could do so. After all:
. "Despite what it might look like, I don't have any sort of multiple personality disorder or mental health issues. My ability to radically change my personality and outlook on something is a by-product of my long life, I've seen pretty much every different type of person and who they can communicate best with socially."
She has already shown she can effortlessly change her personality or outlook to suit the situation at hand.
She could sell the lie easily.
From there, as a master of manipulation who can control the governments of several countries from the shadows, all that is left would be time.
With time she could make Cerys invested in her and the clocktower both emotionally and financially (well financially she has been in control since the beginning). To invested to simply leave.
Furthermore while she was lying about an unbreakable guarantee, she wasn't lying about her intent to protect Una. After all:
Karen had lived a long time, seen many plans fall apart and tried her best to learn from her mistakes. The two sisters sitting across the garden from her were her latest effort, her attempts to right some of the many wrongs she had committed in the past, such was the origin of her promise.
I vowed to keep her safe.
She just became a magical girl.
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
This is from her perspective, a clear sign that she took the promise seriously, that she has seen it as a way to try to right wrongs.
It is ideally something she would follow through on, unless it hits a breaking point where she runs into something that is more important to
her than keeping Una safe.
So ideally, with time, Cerys would also see that while the promise wasn't unbreakable, the fact that Karen had not broken it after a long stretch is a sign she still took it seriously. In that case, having already proven her sincerity, Cerys would still be mad, but also could be easy for Karen to talk down.
Since, you know, Karen has already proved at that point that she cares about protecting Una.
And well, if she did have to break it, or Cerys found out about it before enough time has passed to get Cerys to see what Karen sees as sense, Cerys would come to her directly, based on her personality.
So either Karen then defuses the situation, or it comes to a fight, and Cerys, having not having enough time to grow, is outclassed against Karen and so loses.
And honestly based on Cerys actions since joining the Clocktower, she had little reason to suspect Cerys would find out quickly.
She asked questions before coming and on the initial meeting, but besides that has been rather content with her lot at the clocktower.
She asked for world news to be collected weekly, yet never actually looks at it, and so shows being uninterested in it despite that access.
She lives in the clocktower, but doesn't actually interact with many of the people. Usually only enforcers, Morgan, and Karen. She hasn't even once tried to see what the other divisions of the clocktower does, she doesn't even
try to understand anything about the clocktower that isn't related to the top (Karen), or her job (enforcers).
Once she feels safe, she no longer sees the need to asks questions.
So once Karen makes her feel safe again, she doesn't need to fear Cerys asking, and finding out about the fact that such vows can be rescinded is extremely unlikely, since Cerys isn't really around people who make them.
It was a gamble, but again, the alternative, telling her the truth, would have resulted in a Geas, that Karen found unacceptable, or would have resulted in Cerys leaving, with a grudge against Karen, and having had no reason to hate any of Karen's enemies yet.
Cerys could have been easily in the position for her enemies to pick her up, and turn her into an actually effective weapon against her.
So it was Lie, tell the truth and let her go whilst
hating Karen, or tell the truth and potentially kill her so that she can't be used by her enemies.
Of course it
might have been possible to get Cerys on her side whilst telling the truth and not undergoing a Geas, but remember what Karen thinks of Cerys:
Seeing Cerys rather drastic shift in attitude now that her sister is safe just confirms every thought you'd had previously. Absolutely reliant, protective past the point of sanity. Gil sends you a disproving glance out of the corner of his eye, but doesn't say anything more. You ignore him, even if you feel the slightly childish urge to let some of your smugness show. Try to tell me that I'm wrong about people.
She thinks that Cerys is
not sane in how protective she is of Una.
And frankly, being betrayed by Karen by her trying to replace her, and Karen showing she is unwilling to go the extra mile in proving she would protect Una?
The chances of Cerys
staying at that point is astronomically low.
Much lower than the chances of her succeeding on her gamble.
(the section above was written before the current chapter, hence there is probably redundant explanations in it.)
Crossroads:
First she stays with the lie to confirm the truth has been revealed. If it was something easily mendable she would be able to steer Cerys around the issue or into believing it again.
Or perhaps, she acts like she doesn't know what Cerys is talking about because she doesn't know
which lie Cerys found out.
Once, without a doubt it is confirmed that that Cerys knew about the
false vow, and that it is clear that not enough time has built up to ease Cerys into it, not enough time has passed to make Cerys think that Karen would take care of Una anyway, she is forced to drop pretenses. Cerys not being calm, not being accepting here, means that Karen can't try to dance around the issue, she can't sweep it under the rug. Cerys won't be able to be as easily manipulated in the moment, except by rage and anger.
She takes the position of lounging in the chair, because she can't afford to act like she is not in complete control, can't afford to seem intimidated. Perhaps she could have sat normally, but she refuses to set this up as a conversation between equals.
She doesn't straight up lie by saying a better alternative didn't exist, because now Cerys ability to trust her been tanked too hard. To risky to say it because Cerys doesn't feel safe anymore, she'll ask questions to others.
She'll get answers. She'll know about Geas, eventually. Though Karen isn't going to spell it out to her, when she is so emotionally charged.
Knowing that Cerys will not ever be comforted by the false vow, she releases it. Better now, than in the future, especially if she has a need to break the vow in the future, which would tip Cerys off.
She explains herself, the reason why she lied, but does so without stating in what situations that she would have broken the vow. First because it is obviously not going to help the current situation, and second, because she wouldn't want Cerys on alert when it does come time to break the vow and she sees the signs.
She wants to continue working with Cerys, but knows the relationship between them is irreversibly damaged.
On the other side, unlike the situation with the vow, Cerys now has reason to hate the Counter Force. To not trust them.
If she cannot trust Karen without an unbreakable guarantee, then she definitely can't trust the Counter Force's offer of neutrality after they attempted to bomb Una.
Though, and I actually doubt it's an act here, she does somewhat bizarrely compliment Cerys on the strength of her bond to her sister. I say bizarrely only because Karen has been taking a clearly superior position, with the point of view that Cerys was the irrational one here.
This I believe was actually genuine. Perhaps something she can emphasize with, in regards to her mentor who passed away?
Perhaps the only part of this conversation that isn't carefully constructed by her.
She segues from Cerys comment about her being able to choose who is on top, to her prejudice against normals, to, as Cerys has surmised, deflect the issue.
As Cerys is in the state she is in, a
happier interjection would have fallen flat.
Instead she introduces something that she'll know Cerys will take issue with, but ultimately take less issue with than the Una situation. An issue that would eventually have to be brought up to her anyway.
It would keep her angry yes, but the intensity of the anger would not be at the same level as the anger anything that is a danger to Una.
Cerys knowing about it now is better than it being the last straw later down the line when she is actually powerful enough to pose a threat to Karen.
Cerys eventually realizes that Karen intentionally changed the topic, but Karen's intention worked, she can't build up to the same level of anger, and realized that the situation she is in is hopeless currently.
Of course Karen
does know that choosing to bind Cerys by force is not possible in the long term. Not conducive to living.
She also knows that
she'll never be seen in a good light by Cerys again. She'll always be a villain in Cerys' eyes.
So she thinks of a way to bind Cerys to her
organization without relying on force. Apparently a very good one.
Because Gaia reads her thoughts, and decides that she has let Karen play long enough, she'll not let Karen outright make Cerys hers.
Now lets talk about things a bit more recent then events of 7 months ago irl
Such as how much happier Karen was, the last time we saw her, during Dinner for Kneight because
Karen leans back in her seat, patting her stomach, a tiny burp escaping her mouth before she covers it with a giggle. "Why am I in a good mood?" She sits up straight. "For the first time in over a decade, your Mother has finally stopped poking at my thoughts, I've just had a delicious meal and this seat is very comfortable." She wiggles in it a little, propping one of her arms on the rest. "What reason don't I have to be happy?"
Gaia had let up on prodding Karen's mind.
and how she is back to normal now, which isn't really surprising because:
"You probably know why I'm here." She nods, picking up the rest of the cake with her fingers and eating it whole.
"I have a good idea, it helps that Gaia is rather strongly urging me to as well."
Gaia is back with prodding her once more.
I can't help but wonder if the reason that the reason why Cerys isn't as angry with Karen as she normally is despite not being tampered with by Gaia:
Gaia, are you dampening my emotions again? I feel like I should be much angrier with her than I am. [Nope, I learned that lesson.] Mmm. She probably isn't lying to you. Probably.
Is because for her, Dinner for Kneight was a bit more recent than for us, and because she is now more subconsciously sympathetic to Karen after Gaia's emotion removal stunt.
At the very least, Dinner for Kneight makes me wonder how different it would have been to work under a Karen that Gaia wasn't constantly poking the mind of.
