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Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

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noncannon said:
Sorry, I'll keep that in mind.



It looks like this will remain unknown, so just in case, do an unfavorable trade deal with a naval power. Vynta would bring their opinion up to 7/10, which would make them angry at Khem upon a war declaration: that would probably be my first choice. (They also seem loosely governed, so some of them might take action on their own.)

Could also give Ruma a 6/10 buffer, in case we want more loans.

Berba is "neutral toward us at best", so maybe them as well.

@Aranfan: I think the Berba opinion gauge is missing (in trying to check that)
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Keep in mind we can't just make an unfavorable trade deal. It has to be with a higher prestiege power or it's unfavorable in our favor.

Oshha said:
I'm going to assume that there is something more to this as right now, this looks like a desirable outcome to avoid both a war and the potential return of OVERWHELMING ARROGANCE.
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I worry it will come with demands like unfavorable trade deals with Khem and perhaps even major consessions like breaking our trade deal with the Hung.

Longterm income penalties.

Still likely worth it.

It's gonna be hard enough to dig ourselves out of the rebuilding hole we are in without the Khem traders trying to drain us dry.

Still, the status quo of them being a threat won't be forever. We can build ships and DO have a land connection to their capital.
 
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[] Plan Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick
-[] Authority: Shift Deployment: The Mass Levy is large and unwieldy. Changing circumstances require a shift in deployment patterns. (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
--[] 120,000 troops from Thunder Plateau campaign
---[] 30,000 to Western Wall
---[] 30,000 to face Hellas
---[] 30,000 to face Highlanders
---[] 30,000 into reserve
-[] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
--[] Abyss
-[] Influence: Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)
-[] Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
---[] Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)

The redeployment is complicated and needs to work so it gets the Authority. Reduces the logistical burden of having quite so many men in one place and reinforces the other fronts.
With personal attention and 30,000 extra troops behind him Balthazar should be able to get a result from Hellas. It's fine if they don't have to fight but if talks break down...
Loan from Abyss is cash management, prestige management and gives one of Khem's neighbours skin in the game if hostilities develop as predicted.
 
Aranfan said:
Basically, once you pass them in prestige there will be an ultimatum, where you can either give up a bunch of prestige by acknowledging KMT's greatness as surpassing your own, or you can flip them off and start a a war with a Great Power when your attention is already split a bunch of different ways. And make no mistake, despite the prestige score, on the fundamentals the Khem are definitely a Great Power.
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A few questions: Are the Black Sheep a Great power? What about the Western Wall?

Furthermore, I really want to know how badly our internal factions would react if we do acknowledge their superiority?

In my view if we do not manage to reduce war fronts by 2+ before they pile in then we are 80% chance or more going to have a Collapse.

I really want to know if there is any way we can actually take the prestige and probable influence hit from bowing to them. If we can, then that might very well be the best option.
I'd actually probably be willing to lose several influence and some income in order to keep them and others off our backs in this dogpile of a war.
 
Well, we'll reduce the war by at least one front because it's winning in WW or TP that takes us over the prestige line.
 
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noliar said:
[] Plan Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick
-[] Authority: Shift Deployment: The Mass Levy is large and unwieldy. Changing circumstances require a shift in deployment patterns. (80%, 1 year, Deployment shifted, malus to war rolls if failed)
--[] 120,000 troops from Thunder Plateau campaign
---[] 30,000 to Western Wall
---[] 30,000 to face Hellas
---[] 30,000 to face Highlanders
---[] 30,000 into reserve
-[] Influence: Seek Loan: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
--[] Abyss
-[] Influence: Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)
-[] Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
---[] Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)

The redeployment is complicated and needs to work so it gets the Authority. Reduces the logistical burden of having quite so many men in one place and reinforces the other fronts.
With personal attention and 30,000 extra troops behind him Balthazar should be able to get a result from Hellas. It's fine if they don't have to fight but if talks break down...
Loan from Abyss is cash management, prestige management and gives one of Khem's neighbours skin in the game if hostilities develop as predicted.
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I wonder if things would go better throwing all the redeployed troops and Hellas under the theory that this maximizes the hope of Hellas peace allowing us to throw them at the Highlanders and push for peace there.
 
Actually, I want to try and peace out with the Black Sheep and Hellas at the same time if we can. The former would free up most of our army and give us back another Influence from the Sleeper Cells while the latter would keep the Khem bringing us back up to fighting four polities at the same time.

I'm not sure that it is a good idea to take it, but I at least want to have going to war with the Khem as a viable option on the table.

[] Plan Oshha
-[] Authority: Seek Black Sheep's Surrender: You have been winning the war, see if the Black Sheep are willing to give more acceptable terms for their surrender. (Narrative%, 1 year)
-[] Influence: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
--[] Pamplona
-[] Influence: Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)
-[] Personal: Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
--[] Seek Black Sheep's Surrender: You have been winning the war, see if the Black Sheep are willing to give more acceptable terms for their surrender. (Narrative%, 1 year)
 
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[] Plan Increase Vynta Opinion Against Khemetri
-[] Authority: Press for Peace, Hellas (Narrative%, 1 year)
-[] Influence: Seek loan: Pamplona (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
-[] Influence: Negotiate Trade Deal: Vynta (85%. 1 Year. -.1 Income, +1 Opinion, -1 Prestige)
-[] Personal: Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
--[]Press for Peace, Hellas: Press for Peace, Hellas (Narrative%, 1 year)

I'm not really big on any plan at the moment.

Fouredged Sword said:
Keep in mind we can't just make an unfavorable trade deal. It has to be with a higher prestiege power or it's unfavorable in our favor.
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There's a new feature to the unfavorable trade deal, that we may "may pay 1 prestige to give a favorable deal to a less prestigious stat" (which, incidentally, is advantageous in this case).

Oshha said:
peace out with the Black Sheep
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If successful, will almost certainly bring us over Khemetri's prestige, leading to a two-front war with them and Western Wall.

Since it's unknown what effects the resulting blockade might have, I think it's better to keep on going until we've taken what loans we can, and raised opinion of the Naval powers.
 
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noncannon said:
If successful, will almost certainly bring us over Khemetri's prestige, leading to a two-front war with them and Western Wall.

Since it's unknown what effects the resulting blockade might have, I think it's better to keep on going until we've taken what loans we can, and raised opinion of the Naval powers.
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I'm not sure we can keep from surpassing Khem's prestige next turn. All it would take is getting prestige from successful peaceing out Hellas and from good war rolls and we will be over the edge. If we do go over the edge, I would rather it be when we have ended the war against the Black Sheep.
 
Overstressed bureaucracy, otherwise no change, I think.

...

1616 Start Snapshot of frequently-changed stats (1615 Initial Results)

Aranfan said:
Base Influence: 5 Influence, 2 Authority

Naval Status (Yllython Mor): 8 (Poor)
Naval Status (Saffron Sea): 2 (Anemic)
Naval Status (Salt Sea): 4 (Weak)
Naval Status (Monsoon Sea): 5 (Weak)
(Combined Yllython+Saffron Naval: 10 [Average])
Total Naval Score: 19

Professional Army Formations:
Iron Flower Banner Company (Pike & Shot [crossbow]) - Deployed to Western Wall Front
Heaven's Hawk Banner Company (Heavy Cavalry) - Deployed to Western Wall Front

Thunder Plateau Front: 670,000 men & Dragon General Dafydd.
Western Wall Front: 270,000 men & Both Banner Companies
Highlander Front: 30,000 Men
Hellas: 30,000 Men
Reserve: Empty


Treasury Status: 3.5/10
Income: +1.2

Expensive Actions subtract 1 from treasury status, Profitable actions add 1 to it. Very is x2, Extremely is x3, Ruinously/Insanely is x4.
Income adds itself to the Treasury Status every 5 years.


Provinces and Loyalty

Core: Rock Solid
Memory of Spirits: Rock Solid
Txolla: Unshakable
Hathytta: Decently Loyal
Western Wall: In Rebellion
Greenshore: Solid
Tinshore: Rock Solid
Thunder Plateau: Under Foreign Occupation

Client States:

Tin Tribes
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Aranfan said:

-



Opinions of you:


Khemetri: 4/10 [C] R
Magyar: 7/10
Kurna: 8/10
Ealam: 7/10
Vynta: 6/10
Ruma: 5/10
Pamplona: 8/10
Abyss: 5/10
Hung: 8/10 [C]
Rexum Germanum: 5/10
-Hasum 4/10
-Behryvar 4/10
-Ochrur ?/10
Tarta: 5/10
Styrmyr: 4/10
Amber Road: 8/10 [C], 2/5 [A]
Norsca: 4/10
Berba: 5/10
Hellas: 3/10 [C] R
Pulska: 3/5


Prestige Rankings:
<30 = Minor Power
30-59 = Major Power
60-99 = Great Power
100+ = Super Power


Melkut Ymaryn: 66
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Additional Stats (1616 Start)
Prestige:: 66
Authority: 1
Influence: 2
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 9.2
Other Notables: -5 to all actions while fighting four polities at the same time
Revaunchists Appeasement: Mass Levy
Txollan Concerns Met: War with Black Sheep

Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion)
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [1.875]
(These estimates are probably out of date. see 1613 Start for latest updates)

Next Guild Income Within: 1616
Treasury: 3.5 (+1.2 within 1620,1625... ; +1 within 1616, 1618,...; -1 per year from Mass Levy)
Unoccupied Banner Companies: Both on Western Wall front

Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Incite Unrest, Black Sheep [1 Authority]: ??? (1617?)
Spreading the Warding, Amber Road [1 Influence]: 1619 (1620)
Construct Warships, Harmurri Gulf [1 Influence]: 1617
Create Sleeper Cells, Black Sheep [2 Influence]: our choice
Counter Espionage [2 Influence]: ???
Train Thunder Plateau Administrators, Elective [1 Influence]: (1.4 * [Length of Black Sheep War + 2 years])

Revaunchists Weakenings: 4 (-1) = 3?
  1. Tin Tribes Independence
  2. White Peace with Hellas
  3. Amber Road Independence
  4. Refrain from conquering Stymyr to mountains
  5. Strengthening: Blame Western Wall
3 weakenings likely reduces "antsy": no more half-measures -> reduced half-measure roll weights

Sacred Warding Notes: Can provide to three nations after Hung delegation returns (1616-1618). (Source)

All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. I believe that income is added during the Initial Results part of a year, though the exact ordering within that stage is unclear.
 
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Oshha said:
I'm not sure we can keep from surpassing Khem's prestige next turn. All it would take is getting prestige from successful peaceing out Hellas and from good war rolls and we will be over the edge. If we do go over the edge, I would rather it be when we have ended the war against the Black Sheep.
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Two prestige-reducing actions bring us down to 65; is Hellas really worth +4 prestige (+5 if we have to go over 69; it's unclear)? I rather expect an unfavorable compromise with them would reduce our prestige further, while increasing theirs.

The last good war roll gave us +2. So we still have 2 turns buffer.

(I also don't think we'll get good war rolls each turn, so it's probably even more turns of buffer.)

Let's say somehow we do average one war victory per turn (dubious). Two prestige-reducing actions (probably loans) would cancel that out. We'd stay stationary at 65, with a buffer of 4.

We can't keep this going on forever, but as long as we can still take out two loans (which we'll probably need anyway), we can continue (and then probably two turns or so after that). We'll end up in a few turns with a much healthier Treasury stockpile for surviving Khemetri's blockade, and loaners more inclined to intervene lest Khem forces us to default.

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Edit: miscalculation, in that we need to account for the +1 Prestige / Turn from Mass Levy. So either an extra loan / turn, or a more accurate rate than one war victory / turn.
 
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Oshha said:
[] Plan Oshha
-[] Authority: Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)
-[] Influence: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
--[] Pamplona
-[] Influence: You are strapped for cash. Other states have money that you could use. Ask them if they would be willing to float a loan. (85%, +1 Treasury Status, -.1 Income, -1 Prestige and probable -influence)
--[] Abyss
-[] Personal: Attend to a particular action personally. (Provides bonus to action)
--[]Press for Peace, Hellas: You need to do something to get the Hellas off your back. Find out what you would need to do to get them to back off. (Narrative%, 1 year)
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Why do you have Press for Peace as a personal action? You've already put Authority on it, so it's already auto-success. Also, to reduce Prestige, shouldn't we do trade deals instead? At least then there isn't a probable chance we lose influence.
 
noncannon said:
Two prestige-reducing actions bring us down to 65; is Hellas really worth +4 prestige (+5 if we have to go over 69; it's unclear)? I rather expect an unfavorable compromise with them would reduce our prestige further, while increasing theirs.

The last good war roll gave us +2. So we still have 2 turns buffer.

(I also don't think we'll get good war rolls each turn, so it's probably even more turns of buffer.)

Let's say somehow we do average one war victory per turn (dubious). Two prestige-reducing actions (probably loans) would cancel that out. We'd stay stationary at 65, with a buffer of 4.

We can't keep this going on forever, but as long as we can still take out two loans (which we'll probably need anyway), we can continue (and then probably two turns or so after that). We'll end up in a few turns with a much healthier Treasury stockpile for surviving Khemetri's blockade, and loaners more inclined to intervene lest Khem forces us to default.

...

Edit: miscalculation. Editing.
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Yeah, but I suspect that the BS peace deal won't take. If it doesn't take then we can accept a - prestige deal. If it does take then Hellas has REALLY good reason to want peace NOW and we can take a better deal.

Andres110 said:
Why do you have Press for Peace as a personal action? You've already put Authority on it, so it's already auto-success. Also, to reduce Prestige, shouldn't we do trade deals instead? At least then there isn't a probable chance we lose influence.
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I think we have gotten minor bonuses to the d10 peace roll in the past from personal attention. Not 100% sure though.
 
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Fouredged Sword said:
Yeah, but I suspect that the BS peace deal won't take. If it doesn't take then we can accept a - prestige deal. If it does take then Hellas has REALLY good reason to want peace NOW and we can take a better deal.
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If it does take then Khemetri enters (along with a blockade of unknown effect). We're not ready, with zero loans so far, only 3.5 Treasury left, and Western Wall undefeated.
 
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Andres110 said:
Why do you have Press for Peace as a personal action? You've already put Authority on it, so it's already auto-success. Also, to reduce Prestige, shouldn't we do trade deals instead? At least then there isn't a probable chance we lose influence.
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Narrative bonus as can be seen in previous peace talks. Putting a personal action on an Authority peace talks has gotten as an +1 on d10 rolls for the other side accepting.
 
noncannon said:
If it does take then Khemetri enters. We're not ready, with zero loans so far, only 3.5 Treasury left, and Western Wall undefeated.
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I think the plan is to placate the Khem regardless of the cost and afford to do so because peace with the BS frees up 2 influence and an authority plus whatever normally would free up that turn. We eat a dead turn with next to no actions free, but maybe avoid a Khem war and turn our armies on the remaining enemies.

And I wonder if we can salvage some of our internal stability if our current king throws himself on his sword and retires after the war.

"I did what I had to do to reunite our people, but it cost my pride and the pride of Ymaryn. I can no longer carry that pride, my job is done. I go to do as our people do and farm for the rest of my days. A new King for a new era of Ymaryn."
 
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Fouredged Sword said:
I think the plan is to placate the Khem regardless of the cost and afford to do so because peace with the BS frees up 2 influence and an authority plus whatever normally would free up that turn. We eat a dead turn with next to no actions free, but maybe avoid a Khem war and turn our armies on the remaining enemies.
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With no actions free, we technically can't even redirect our troops to Western Wall. Our Training of Administrators would be frozen. Our obligations to provide the Sacred Warding, unmet. How long does Black Sheep stay under our control when the glorious Ymaryn bureaucracy, this golden idol that their fathers praised endlessly for so many years, reveals itself and not only doesn't live up to its name, but is also hopelessly inept?

Edit: Anyway, it could be worth it if we end up with a tiny number of actions, enough to conclude the war and all, and enough Treasury to survive. That's a big if, and up to the mercy of the Khem.
 
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noncannon said:
With no actions free, we technically can't even redirect our troops to Western Wall. Our Training of Administrators would be frozen. Our obligations to provide the Sacred Warding, unmet. How long does Black Sheep stay under our control when the glorious Ymaryn bureaucracy, this golden idol that their fathers praised endlessly for so many years, reveals itself and not only doesn't live up to its name, but is also hopelessly inept?
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We will at least have something, and not ALL our actions will be consumed. We can work our king hard. We get some influence back not doing spycraft in the BS, and will rapidly war the WW so don't need spies there.

It will be a blow, but a survivable one.

And restoring Ymar to wholeness should return authority and influence.
 
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