Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

[065tdsa]

America is actually smaller! 9.834 million km² Which is cool until you realize the West and East coasts are where they get the most of their economic value and the state of california by itself is the 5th world largest economy.

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America is also ridiculously defensible. The complete opposite of any version of us that tries to hold Ukraine, because that place can be trivially attacked from every direction but the south. Investing on indefensible lands doesn't actually pay off, it just burns money.

 

[Kiba]

America is also ridiculously defensible. The complete opposite of any version of us that tries to hold Ukraine, because that place can be trivially attacked from every direction.

And then you have the other issue - investing on indefensible lands doesn't actually pay off.

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By what accounting? If we acquired WW, we don't need ANY investment, because the land is extremely rich. That will be enough to swell Txolla and Yllython population as well as the cities of the Monsoon Sea.

Similarly, the cities of the Yllython Sea had already paid itself many times over despite the fact that it was easy terrain for any invaders for THOUSAND OF YEARS.

The fact that Ukraine is open to invasion is an issue, but it is not an existential threat to the New Ymaryn Empire.

 

[mesonoxian]

So this vote got away from me, as you can no doubt tell. The 1x votes were not, at the time I posted the vote, intended to be trap options. I'm not sure if the "they are a trap" was me having a genuine sudden insight, or just me being absolutely furious at the vote going exactly how I expected it to go. Because I expected some assholes to pick a 1x option and it to win because of it, that is what I entered the vote expecting. Hell, in the original formulation the "give the land back" was crossed out and not an available option. For some reason, at the last second, my brain decided it was a good idea to turn this into a weighted vote like in the lightning rounds.

My brain is a well known liar so I'm not sure why I trusted them.

I'm not sure where to go for here. I see three broad options:

1. I drop the quest. I have had a person come into my quest and advocate for genocide. I feel dirty and icky and like I am somehow responsible for this. It is not a good feeling. A large part of me wants to drop the quest and curl up in bed for a month.
2. I go with the vote that won. Which would have been "put them in charge of their old lands under your system".
3. I redo the vote with the mechanical incentives I have already established instead of the weighted vote bullshit that just blew up in my face.

I would like the thread's input on this, even if this is not a formal vote and I will not be bound by the thread's desires here. This is just an informal survey to help me figure out what I want to do.

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I am against 1, okay with 2, prefer 3, but you do whatever works best for you.

 

[fasquardon]

Also, it feels like there really ought to be a way to sell independence to the revaunchist faction - something to do with stability and how the Tribes having been traditionally independent and gee, shouldn't we be getting our own house in order first?

Maybe translate it into elitist-speak? Something about how we should focus first on getting ourselves up to the standards we claim to hold, because how can we expect anyone else to do so if we don't lead by example?

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That Ymaryn culture is a gift that is too good to be passed on by kidnapping whole tribes as if they were slaves taken by nomad raiders and beaten into copying the empty forms.

The proper way is to pass on the best lessons is as an ideal noble would, motivating the common tribes by force of example. To deprive the Tin Tribes of their independence is to deny them the opportunity to truly learn. And for us to learn from them, because even the best teacher always has a little more to learn, and the act of true teaching is a two-way process.

By not preempting Gylruv, we will have a very different weight on our neck: the fact that they're eternally gazing at said neck, waiting for the slightest moment of weakness so as to take a bite of its Western Wall.

If we do become Gylruv, and Kyberia, we both prevent this invasion, prevent their shutting down land routes, and get their superpower-level resources, which, I'm sure you'd agree, we can use more efficiently.

Just as relying on them not-becoming a superpower is a bad idea, so is relying on us becoming one so as to dictate terms.

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This is assuming that Gylruv is inevitable. In OTL, the Russian Empire uniting all of the East Slavs, conquering the steppes and colonizing Siberia was very much not inevitable.

Can we stop treating the Ymaryn as a random country from our OTL past?

The Ymaryn Kingdom doesn't care about our 'modern sensibilities' or our 'indignation' nor the Ymaryn Kingdom acts like every other empires on not!Earth, and Earth. It is an ahistorical civilization that has their own values, beliefs, customs, and way of doing things. It is an alien culture, while informed by basic human biology would absolutely shock us and dismay us with some of their behaviors.

In short, the Ymaryn civilization stands on its two feet, and we should act accordingly to do things that makes sense from their perspective.

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Very much agree.

The Ymaryns don't live in the "past", they live where they've always lived - their present.

1. I drop the quest. I have had a person come into my quest and advocate for genocide. I feel dirty and icky and like I am somehow responsible for this. It is not a good feeling. A large part of me wants to drop the quest and curl up in bed for a month.

Click to shrink...

I think that quests like this can play a valuable role in teaching people why things like cultural genocide are abhorrent. So... I hope you will continue, and I hope you will continue to enjoy yourself. That said, if it does continue, I suspect this won't be the first time that someone knowingly or unknowingly advocates for something that is simply awful in this quest.

2. I go with the vote that won. Which would have been "put them in charge of their old lands under your system".

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I personally favour this.

3. I redo the vote with the mechanical incentives I have already established instead of the weighted vote bullshit that just blew up in my face.

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3 is also fine.

fasquardon

 

[Kiba]

if Amber Road is still alive and retaining its health, we should definitely send an expedition up north and preempt any Not!Russian from forming.

 

[noncannon]

The Gylruvian/Kyberian investment cost is also less, due both to reduced population density and "defensibility by inhospitability". (Also the ocean borders.)

This is assuming that Gylruv is inevitable. In OTL, the Russian Empire uniting all of the East Slavs, conquering the steppes and colonizing Siberia was very much not inevitable.

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Only the first part is a prerequisite to a not!Gylruv that threatens Western Wall, going by this map.

There don't seem to be significant natural barriers either, so I tend to expect a unification (if only in the form of a conquest) to happen eventually.

I'm not that familiar with Russian history, though, so please feel free to point out anything that sounds off-base.

Meanwhile, the Russians are going to have to start from essentially nothing, given that only a few decades ago, Amber Road were dealing with stone age tribes. Who exactly are going to settle that area and then multiply in population? In hindsight, that is probably the most unrealistic part of PoI.

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I think it took, like, 300 years? The problem of Gylruv is a centuries-long term problem before it finally steamrolls us.

It should be noted that Gylruv does not actually have to be more powerful than us (it wasn't when canon!Ymaryn was vassalized). It only matters that the cumulative problem, across all borders (of which there are many others that are also indefensible) becomes too much for the Ymaryn to handle.

if Amber Road is still alive and retaining its health, we should definitely send an expedition up north and preempt any Not!Russian from forming.

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This is one possibility, though I'll have to give more thought as to its practicality.

If we prevent not!Gylruv until nationalism sets in, I think we stand a good chance of avoiding the Western Wall invasion issue. Furthermore, by then we should be familiar enough with the various polities, and they with us, to start sphering them and fixing borders, maybe into a Gylruvian Union. speculative

One aspect that may be beneficial is the lack of natural barriers, which should mean they can't just fort up? Again, more thought is required (as well as whether it's more worth it to just go in and start administering the area to begin with).

 

[Kiba]

I think it took, like, 300 years? The problem of Gylruv is a centuries-long term problem before it finally steamrolls us.

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Exactly why it would steamroll us? Ukraine is open doesn't mean we'll be easy to defeat.

It should be noted that Gylruv does not actually have to be more powerful than us (it wasn't when canon!Ymaryn was vassalized). It only matters that the cumulative problem, across all borders (of which there are many others that are also indefensible) becomes too much for the Ymaryn to handle.

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The problem is not Gylruv. It was a combination of Black Sheep and Gylruv double teaming us.

 

[noncannon]

Exactly why it would steamroll us?

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For many centuries, the polities that would become Gylruv are insignificant. They don't have the population, or technology, to even begin to contest us. They fight mostly among themselves, and the warm water ports of the Yllython Sea aren't even a consideration. We even have free passage on their land routes to Syffryn, because who would dare to contest us?

Until they start building up their military tech, become better able to contest the nomads... and unify, whether through diplomacy or conquest.

Then, the situation turns to the one 065tdsa and I have been describing since the last page, and it's too late to avoid the failure mode.

The problem is not Gylruv. It was a combination of Black Sheep and Gylruv double teaming us.

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We've described the problem in significant detail. We know. (And the problem isn't the Black Sheep in specific.)

 

[Fouredged Sword]

We are ALWAYS going to have potentially hostile neibours. We just gotta live with that fact.

 

[noncannon]

ooor... we can preemptively move in to the more defensible neighbor's house

This isn't just a vague worry. The geopolitical considerations make this specific situation awfully likely, unless we act to prevent them.

 

[065tdsa]

We are ALWAYS going to have potentially hostile neibours. We just gotta live with that fact.

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Which is why we should advance to defensible borders where possible.

 

[Kiba]

For many centuries, the polities that would become Gylruv are insignificant. They don't have the population, or technology, to even begin to contest us. They fight mostly among themselves, and the warm water ports of the Yllython Sea aren't even a consideration. We even have free passage on their land routes to Syffryn, because who would dare to contest us?

Until they start building up their military tech, become better able to contest the nomads... and unify, whether through diplomacy or conquest.

Then, the situation turns to the one 065tdsa and I have been describing since the last page, and it's too late to avoid the failure mode.

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OK, why do you think they can gather enough POPULATION to counter our demographic advantage. We have not one but potentially two breadbaskets.

 

[065tdsa]

OK, why do you think they can gather enough POPULATION to counter our demographic advantage. We have not one but potentially two breadbaskets.

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Because our second breadbasket isn't a safe breadbasket, it's a battleground that will stop sending out food the second war is declared because we cannot stop them burning it to the ground, and is extremely vulnerable to raids of any kind in peacetime too.

And because they'll wait until someone else also attacks.

 

[noncannon]

I never even thought about that, but if a breadbasket was, in fact, supporting a larger population, and it was shut down, our larger population actually becomes a liability (i.e. clock ticks down until revolution from lack of food, depending on the available stores).

Anyway, it's unclear whether we'll actually get Ukraine, and Txolla is also vulnerable if the second attacker comes from Arabia.

 

[Parzival95]

How did we integrate with notRussia in PoI? We could try for a similar dual-crown compromise here and once more become a global superpower.

 

[Oshha]

How die we integrate with notRussia in PoI? we could try for a similar dual-crown compromise here and once more become a global superpower.

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We had the choice of submitting either Not!Russia or Not!Persia and we chose the former.

Honestly, these fears about Not!Russia are overrated. While I would prefer to get Ukraine for its fertile breadbasket fields, we don't need Ukraine to avoid getting conquered by Not!Russia and the idea that Not!Russia is someone become powerful enough to steamroll us is baseless doommongering. Nations don't just become as powerful as they due to their locations. There are plenty of other factors involved such as culture, tech and how history plays out.

 

[noncannon]

Lightning Round X: Gylruv and Black Sheep unified at the same time. Gylruv wanted Yllython Sea, Black Sheep wanted Newport on the Monsoon Sea. Ymaryn was surrounded on two indefensible fronts, knew it was only a matter of time before one invaded (in which case, the other would follow), so they preempted Gylruv with a vassalization request. Gylruv faced their last Seldyn Crisis, and were forced to accept the vassalization.

 

[notbirdofprey]

Ukraine is actually defensible, if we get to the Dneiper.

 

[Redium]

Long term, price is determined by cost of production and supply is determined by demand. Demand for tin is essentially bottomless, limited only by ability to process the stuff into bronze. Meanwhile the Tin Tribes have lower cost of production than the Ymaryn because of not worrying about ecological concerns and being more cavalier about miner health.

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So the 'best option' is Neocolonialism, then?

Literally no matter what we do here, there's not a good option at all. If we give the Tin Tribes back their land, its going to return to status quo: a bunch of nobles brutally oppressing their commoners. An oppression that we directly benefit from. The only reason the Tin Tribes are able to mine more cheaply is because they don't care about the environment and don't care about their commoners. Using slavery or serfdom in order to feed our endless appetite for tin is the most natural solution. It's insanely profitable and I'm sure that profit is reinvested in making sure the Tin Tribes elites can keep the general populace in line.

This system is basically the new face of Colonialism as it exists across the globe. It doesn't involve direct settlement like it did in the past, but instead binding countries into implicitly unfair economic systems. They oppress their own populace for economic reasons that ultimately serve our interests. The problem doesn't go away just because we can handwave it as not our fault. All they have to do is supply the tin and the Ymaryn can supply finished goods, luxuries, and staple grains in abundant amounts. The tribes would basically turn into a distorted vestige of society over time. They're automatically economically and socially hollowed out by being a resource base in trade with a much more industrialized power.

To be honest, I don't see how this is any less destructive than incorporating them into the empire under their own leaders. You don't need a boot directly stamping on someone's face for their situation to be unsustainable.

Our insistence in holding both the Middle East and the entire Black Sea coast is an utter disaster, we're surrounded and can be attacked in a vital spot from every single angle, all our natural barriers can be circumvented. The northern Black Sea coast in particular is a boondoggle that literally cannot be held without pushing all the way north and then east to the Urals, an expansion which is itself a logistical nightmare for a polity centered in the Middle East.

In short, we need to be part of Russia and Russia needs us to be part of it, if it doesn't conquer us we'll conquer it. This concern is completely separate from the current Tin Tribes issue but that doesn't make it less correct.

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We're located in Georgia along the Black Sea. It would've been easier for us historically to expand into Russia than the Middle East.

Moment of weakness doesn't come that often, and even if it did, who's going to be more likely to win? Us.

Meanwhile, the Russians are going to have to start from essentially nothing, given that only a few decades ago, Amber Road were dealing with stone age tribes. Who exactly are going to settle that area and then multiply in population? In hindsight, that is probably the most unrealistic part of PoI.

Click to shrink...

Remember: Amber Road was up there for a thousand years during the timeskip. I'm sure that the situation has changed since PoC.

The main problem we have is that we've set ourselves up to have major rivals on every side. There's Khemri down in Egypt, the Magyars or whatever Kussite power takes over there, Stymyr or whoever unifies the Carpathian Basin, and Gulryv: not!Russia. Each of those is a major breadbasket region so they're playing in the same league as us.

If we have a moment of weakness everyone will jump on us at once. It's fine to say we can beat any single power, that's probably true! What about two or three? The reason that the Ymaryn became subjugated into the Dual Crown in PoI was because we couldn't fight off both the Black Sheep and Gulryv. We could take one, but then the second would destroy us. We are still fundamentally in that position. The Ymaryn made due in the Lightning Rounds by aggressively screwing over every external power until we suddenly couldn't: Ymaryn defense was very much about destroying any possible contender. It only takes one roll of the dice for it to come up snake eyes.

We need to be extremely careful because we know our advantages will decrease with time. Right now, we're partially industrialized and can operate a basic mass levy. With time, other societies are going to be able to manage that as well as technology and social organization advances. It would only take a little bit for us to lose some food production and land to end up in a spiraling death match.

 

[Aranfan]

So the 'best option' is Neocolonialism, then?

Literally no matter what we do here, there's not a good option at all. If we give the Tin Tribes back their land, its going to return to status quo: a bunch of nobles brutally oppressing their commoners. An oppression that we directly benefit from. The only reason the Tin Tribes are able to mine more cheaply is because they don't care about the environment and don't care about their commoners. Using slavery or serfdom in order to feed our endless appetite for tin is the most natural solution. It's insanely profitable and I'm sure that profit is reinvested in making sure the Tin Tribes elites can keep the general populace in line.

This system is basically the new face of Colonialism as it exists across the globe. It doesn't involve direct settlement like it did in the past, but instead binding countries into implicitly unfair economic systems. They oppress their own populace for economic reasons that ultimately serve our interests. The problem doesn't go away just because we can handwave it as not our fault. All they have to do is supply the tin and the Ymaryn can supply finished goods, luxuries, and staple grains in abundant amounts. The tribes would basically turn into a distorted vestige of society over time. They're automatically economically and socially hollowed out by being a resource base in trade with a much more industrialized power.

To be honest, I don't see how this is any less destructive than incorporating them into the empire under their own leaders. You don't need a boot directly stamping on someone's face for their situation to be unsustainable.

Click to shrink...

There is nothing "neo" about this form of colonialism for the Ymaryn. This has literally been the modus operandi of the Melkut Ymaryn since they decided to sell iron goods and buy iron ore from their neighbors who can get it cheaper.

This has factually been the status quo for the Ymaryn and the Tin Tribes for literal millennia.

It leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but it's better than doing a conquest on a people who want to be independent.

 

[Kiba]

I never even thought about that, but if a breadbasket was, in fact, supporting a larger population, and it was shut down, our larger population actually becomes a liability (i.e. clock ticks down until revolution from lack of food, depending on the available stores).

Anyway, it's unclear whether we'll actually get Ukraine, and Txolla is also vulnerable if the second attacker comes from Arabia.

Click to shrink...

First of all, just because there's a reduction in shipment of food, we won't immediately starve. We don't live on Grow Food Just In Time, since grains keep good for a while. IIRC, subsistence grow enough food so they can last until the next harvest. It also assume we won't immediately respond and there is no military forces in the area, and that all area fall under their control.

Demography, the weight of numbers is a powerful military advantage. Do not underestimate invading a country with a breadbasket, because they'll have lot of peeps to get through. Because not only do we have the breadbasket, we also have sea access, and willingness to invest ludicrous amount of resources. We'll canal over it as much as we can, and then wagonsway it even more. We'll fortify the hell out of it.

Given our mistakes with the Great Khan, we'll also make sure to internally fortify our internal heartlands for defense as much as we can as well.

 

[Parzival95]

They had the most votes so I'd say going with options 3 or 4, and damn the weighing. The best weighing I ever saw was when AN had the results come from consensus. 100% consensus had it be really effective, perhaps too effective, and splitting the vote distributed lesser results. But I don't know that would work here.

Or you could have a runoff between giving the land back and putting the natives in charge.

 

[notbirdofprey]

It's also definitely possible to fortify Ukraine, and we almost certainly will. Go up to the rivers and marshes, make canals everywhere there isn't a river, build forts...

 

[Oshha]

Some analysis on the defensive situation from @KlinkerKing on the Discord:

KlinkerKingToday at 19:25
Lemme read
Okay lemme look at the in-game map.
Ukraine, if we're holding the Dniepr river, is actually a fuck-off difficult country to take
AranfanToday at 19:29
The dniepr is a good natural border then?
like the oder or isono?
KlinkerKingToday at 19:30
Kind of.
kibaToday at 19:30
apparently, Russia have rich farmland too?
KlinkerKingToday at 19:30
It's mostly Ukrainian farmland
AranfanToday at 19:30
the step is actually extremely fertile, just dry
KlinkerKingToday at 19:31
Dniepr river extends nicely to pripyat in the north IIRC
and good luck getting through those marshes - they swallow armies whole
kibaToday at 19:31
also
KlinkerKingToday at 19:31
(literally, as the Teutonic Order found out)
kibaToday at 19:31
Russia would be trying to invade Ukraine without the foodstuff
they would be weak without control of Ukrainian farmland
which is how the Gylriv conquered us in canon
KlinkerKingToday at 19:32
it looks like we're also bordering the Carpathians in the west of westwall, which is functionally impossible to cross unless we fuck up massively
kibaToday at 19:33
like, let forget indefensible/defensible for a minute
KlinkerKingToday at 19:33
The weakest bit looks like the Volga border north of the Caucasus, but even then, that's a river border which tends to be pretty good.
kibaToday at 19:33
and note the fact that if you want to have enough population to invade us, you need to have good farmlands to feed your population
KlinkerKingToday at 19:34
and yes, invading Ukraine without a breadbasket of your own when your opponent controls a breadbasket and the sea is not an easy thing to do
It's why it took the Russians forever

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/776264987906801685/787764519476133918/Expansion-Ottoman-Empire.png

to dislodge the Ottoman Empire from Circassia and Crimea
it wasn't until Catherine the Great, in the 1780s that Crimea returned properly to Russian control
Meaning it took the Russians 300 years to dislodge the Ottomans from Crimea
Here's also a good map

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/776264987906801685/787765784867766320/Dnipro_Basin_River_Town_International.png

You can see Pripyat in the north west of Ukraine, which is full of essentially impassable marshland, you can see the rivers branching out from Kiev creating nice natural borders
AranfanToday at 19:41
so the borders I picked are actually pretty defensible then
huh
KlinkerKingToday at 19:41
and here, there's a very narrow gap between the Don and Volga rivers

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/776264987906801685/787766246426935296/Donrivermap-Volga_Don_Canal.png

assuming the Ymaryn held this region, they'd fortress the crap out of it, possibly build a canal between them (actually - this is pretty similar to that triangle canal) and even the Mongols would have a hard time crossing.
Basically, unless your empire is in full decline and corruption mode, you can hold on to Ukraine in the face of a lot of determined invaders.

Click to shrink...

 

[065tdsa]

Completely fails to consider the fact that it can be attacked from every direction as opposed to just one direction. Also, the fact that they'll have someone else attacking us from the opposite corner of the empire because we're by definition always surrounded.