Victoria Falls Worldbuilding Thread

The loss of Egypt's export partners was a crippling blow to an economy that was already defined by corruption and inequality. Riots in Cairo were followed by insurrection in the countryside, and the military government struggled to maintain control of a few key cities as the nation collapsed into anarchy. The desperate, rapid transition to subsistence farming barely prevented famine, but tens of thousands died of malnutrition, and the survival rations of the poor were barely sufficient to keep them alive.
That's a pretty big departure from currently developmentalist continental imperial power*, occasional soft power partner to either EU or China, built on the back from the shift from neoliberal, post-Morsi admin to the Pink consensus** of social democrats & their communist junior partners in parliament.

All while remaining a military with a state.

*expressed thru their state industries' domination of some neighbouring states, military supports to other AU members, etc
**e.g. some measure of worker representation in company boards
 
That's a pretty big departure from currently developmentalist continental imperial power*, occasional soft power partner to either EU or China, built on the back from the shift from neoliberal, post-Morsi admin to the Pink consensus** of social democrats & their communist junior partners in parliament.

All while remaining a military with a state.

*expressed thru their state industries' domination of some neighbouring states, military supports to other AU members, etc
**e.g. some measure of worker representation in company boards

I'm sorry, I don't understand. Is my proposal contradicting the QM's earlier background for Egypt? If so, it's been a while, and I've simply forgotten. If you have it, could you link it?

My proposed series of events goes like this:
-Egypt's military is in charge
-The global economy collapses, and Egypt suddenly goes from having an unemployment problem to an unemployment crisis
-Egypt could theoretically make the transition to feeding itself, but there are riots and government purges and a breakdown in transportation networks. The military government could solve at least some of their problems, but they have a hammer and everything looks like a nail. Also, plague.
-Farmers start hoarding food because they are very very scared about the future
-As unemployment reaches new heights, the remnants of the Muslim Brotherhood rise against the military government. So do radical antidemocratic Islamists. The urban poor rise up for bread. The government responds with tanks in the streets of Cairo.
-Bad Things Happen. When the dust settles, Egypt is wrecked. Like most of the world.
-Russia comes back, and Alexander recognizes that control of the Suez is important. But he doesn't have the free military resources to simply take it, so...
-Diplomacy. Alexander has food and medicine and guns, and the Egyptian military needs all three. They get to reestablish control over a somewhat functional country, and he gets to decide who goes through the Suez Canal.
-The government runs into increasing problems because they are corrupt, they are brutal, and they are openly puppets for a foreign power. Eventually, they get couped by junior officers who don't want Egypt to be an eager servant of the Tsar.
-The new government eventually transitions into democracy, though the military has an unsettling amount of influence. Egypt is now a mostly decent liberal democracy with strong pan-Arab sentiments and growing ambitions not simply in North Africa, but within the Middle East. Alexander is Not Happy, but neither side is willing to unsettle the status quo. Yet.

The end state is compatible with social democracy and even a Communist minority party.
 
-Egypt's military is in charge

It's not. The president is ex-military but the military isn't in fact running the government. They really can't be arsed to. That's in fact why Morsi happened. They still have a lot of economic power due to owning part of the economy and could casually throw their weight around, but they generally don't. Sisi isn't the military.
 
It's not. The president is ex-military but the military isn't in fact running the government. They really can't be arsed to. That's in fact why Morsi happened. They still have a lot of economic power due to owning part of the economy and could casually throw their weight around, but they generally don't. Sisi isn't the military.

The military isn't directly running the government, but they overthrew the last government they didn't like and made sure that a general won the next "election".

I guess you could say that the civilian government operates as a kind of franchise for the military that does the work the military doesn't care about. But I'd still describe that as "Egypt's military is in charge". A lord can allow a steward to run his lands, but as soon as the steward does anything he doesn't like he can sack the man and replace him with someone more agreeable.
 
Those are strong words. You're going to need to back them up.

Egypt is under a military government right now. Arguing for a widespread collapse of civil order in the wake of an economic collapse is hardly controversial; liberal democratic France lost continuity of government during the Collapse. My proposal was to have Russia come in with an offer of aid, which they desperately needed, and to puppet Egypt through the use of soft power. This is not a new thing for empires to do.

Saying that my proposal was a "racist caricature" is a serious accusation, and it requires serious evidence. Evidence you did not provide. Instead, you gave me four sentences of vague condemnation and a comparison to Ireland that frankly makes no sense.

Egypt ended up as a Russian vassal. Very large parts of the world ended up as Russian vassals. This is not some special condemnation of Egypt, just a recognition that Egypt is strategically important, that Russia would want to control the Suez Canal, and that the Egyptian military was willing to make a deal with foreigners to secure their own power.

Pan-Arabism was an important ideology in Egypt under General Nasser. The QM specifically mentioned that pan-Arabism is on the rise again. It seems reasonable that Egyptian dissidents would rebel against being a Russian vassal and seek to secure a strong, independent Egypt that would take a leading role in a strong, independent Arab world.

Your criticism is unwelcome not because it is criticism, but because it is frankly low-effort. I can be wrong about things, and I can be persuaded that I am wrong. That happens. However, I find it somewhat frustrating to hear that my worldbuilding is a "racist caricature" from someone who neglects to provide any details as to why.

Edit: The information I've seen is that Egypt is a major food importer.

Egypt - The Food Gap

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Food Processing Ingredients_Cairo_Egypt_03-30-2020

How to Feed Egypt

In my proposal, Egypt suffered from an economic collapse as part of the larger Collapse. This had larger social and political consequences, including widespread insurrection, rioting, and the collapse of governmental control over large portions of the country.

If the Egyptian government and people made only good choices, Egypt probably could feed itself. But the Egyptian government and people did not make only good choices.

I struggle to understand how you can question Egypt suffering from famine and malnutrition when America canonically suffers from famine and malnutrition. If we're considering the matter exclusively in terms of arable land and crop yields, then Americans would have eaten well during the Collapse.

It's called "the Collapse". Not "the sort of bad time when most people ate just fine, really". The Collapse period also featured a major plague that hit America hard and may have had equally serious consequences for Egypt. Countries that are technically capable of feeding themselves may be less capable of making a transition to self-sufficiency when dealing with an economic collapse and violent uprisings and a plague and a government that was less than concerned with the well-being of the common people.

"Food production" was more of an issue in older famines, when a drought or a flood ruined the harvest and there wasn't enough for everyone. Modern famines are more likely to involve a failure of distribution, as the mechanisms for moving food break down, often as a result of war or societal collapse.

And again, "racist caricature" is not a minor accusation. If you're going to say it, you need to back it up.

They're not a military dictatorship. Since I'm on my phone, I'm going to link to the last time we had this talk on SV

I can also tag in @StarMaker764 if he feels like doing this again.

Edit: I've always been fond of the following snark on this topic

"When 11 million people protest and the military takes power, that's a popular revolution."
"But when 36 million protest and the supreme court takes power that's a military coup"

Edit2: Like liberals prasing a president came into power on a sketchier election than the one they hate, who accidentally banned women from public all life, and was killing people trying to implement a fundamentalist theocracy and being mad he was overthrown will never stop being at least mildly amusing to me.

Like, the military yeeted Morsi because *more people than had voted for him* were in the streets demanding his removal. Then power was handed over to the supreme court who wrote a new constitution (with voices from basically all sections of society) that kneecapped executive power.
 
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They're not a military dictatorship. Since I'm on my phone, I'm going to link to the last time we had this talk on SV

I can also tag in @StarMaker764 if he feels like doing this again.

Edit: I've always been fond of the following snark on this topic

"When 11 million people protest and the military takes power, that's a popular revolution."
"But when 36 million protest and the supreme court takes power that's a military coup"

The link is certainly fascinating. I suppose that arresting the opposition candidate is perfectly democratic behavior, and the Rabaa Square Massacre was absolutely normal.

97%. According to official sources, al-Sisi won 97% of the vote. That's North Korea levels of election rigging. It's not even trying to pretend that the election was anything except a fraud.

The military coup occurred when the military decided to overturn the results of a free and fair election. Then they decided to arrest the leaders of the political opposition. Then they decided to end a sit-in with gunfire. Then their preferred candidate won ninety-seven percent of the vote. This...isn't subtle.

www.amnesty.org

Human rights in Egypt

Stay up to date on the state of human rights in Egypt with the latest research, campaigns and education material from Amnesty International.

Egypt | Country Page | World | Human Rights Watch

Under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s government, Egypt has been experiencing its worst human rights crisis in many decades. Tens of thousands of government critics, including journalists and human rights defenders, remain imprisoned on politically motivated charges, many in lengthy pretrial...

I trust Amnesty International. I trust Human Rights Watch. I don't trust the military government of Egypt.

You've been having a lot of odd takes recently. First you claimed that liberal democracies hate to be allies with other liberal democracies, so Europe will want to replace us with a dictatorship or a brutal oligarchy. Just like America did in West Germany and Denmark and France and Norway and Sweden and...oh, wait, no, that never happened.

Now you're claiming that Egypt totally isn't a military dictatorship, forget what human rights organizations have to say, everyone knows that Westerners can't be trusted. The people we should trust are the people who massacre protestors in squares and win elections with ninety-seven percent of the vote! And you go on to mention that Canada doesn't elect the Queen, so that makes Canada worse than Egypt, because everyone knows that constitutional monarchy is the epitome of evil. Yes, the people of Canada surely do suffer with their free and fair elections and universal healthcare and high standard of living, while the free people of Egypt enjoy the benevolent rule of a President who was elected after arresting the opposition candidate. So much more democratic!

Your arguments make no sense. You also provide no sources to support your arguments. I am happy to write Egypt as a military dictatorship because that's what Egypt is now. Please read Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch or any number of sources that monitor crimes against humanity. Please.
 
"Javier Solana, for example, was NATO secretary general during the 1999 assault on Yugoslavia, an event HRW itself described as entailing "violations of international humanitarian law." Solana is now on the group's Board of Directors.

Tom Malinowski, whose partial CV appears in description B, was HRW's Washington Director from 2001 to 2013 and has now returned to full-fledged government activity as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor. Myles Frechette, a former US Ambassador to Colombia, is a member of HRW Americas' advisory committee, an entity that for many years also counted on the expertise of former CIA analyst Miguel Díaz, currently an Intelligence Community Associate at the State Department."
-Link
 
"Javier Solana, for example, was NATO secretary general during the 1999 assault on Yugoslavia, an event HRW itself described as entailing "violations of international humanitarian law." Solana is now on the group's Board of Directors.

Tom Malinowski, whose partial CV appears in description B, was HRW's Washington Director from 2001 to 2013 and has now returned to full-fledged government activity as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor. Myles Frechette, a former US Ambassador to Colombia, is a member of HRW Americas' advisory committee, an entity that for many years also counted on the expertise of former CIA analyst Miguel Díaz, currently an Intelligence Community Associate at the State Department."
-Link

What about Amnesty International? Are they part of The Conspiracy? How about Freedom House?

freedomhouse.org

Egypt: Country Profile

Access Freedom House reports on Egypt, see recent news and perspectives, and learn about our work in the country.

I have actual sources. You have no sources. Unless we assume that multiple major human rights organizations are part of The Conspiracy, then we have to conclude that Egypt is in fact a military dictatorship.

Or we could trust the state-controlled media. I'm sure that they're absolutely fair and unbiased. It's a little bit difficult to find independent journalists in Egypt, since they tend to be in jail.
 
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I gotta admit, @AKuz , that a 97% vote share for the winning candidate in an election is not what one would normally call a good sign. Even if the opposition to the winner consists of a bunch of rotten snakes, those snakes would presumably make up enough of the population to scrape together more than 3% of the vote.

"Javier Solana, for example, was NATO secretary general during the 1999 assault on Yugoslavia, an event HRW itself described as entailing "violations of international humanitarian law." Solana is now on the group's Board of Directors.

Tom Malinowski, whose partial CV appears in description B, was HRW's Washington Director from 2001 to 2013 and has now returned to full-fledged government activity as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor.

Myles Frechette, a former US Ambassador to Colombia, is a member of HRW Americas' advisory committee, an entity that for many years also counted on the expertise of former CIA analyst Miguel Díaz, currently an Intelligence Community Associate at the State Department."
-Link
The first of those presents a troubling aspect.

The second and third less so. You would hope, idealistically, that people who give a damn about human rights and have criticized the US's human rights record in the past could get positions responsible for the State Department's human rights branch. The third cannot be commented on without (as in the first case) pointing out some specific abuse committed by this individual that justifies the problem.

Otherwise you end up just tainting groups by association with other groups, who are in turn recursively tainted by association with the first group, or with a position whose villainy is presumed rather than proven by their actions.
 
I have actual sources. You have no sources. Unless we assume that numerous major human rights organizations are part of the Conspiracy, then we have to conclude that Egypt is in fact a military dictatorship.
No need for a conspiracy here, just a lack of care to actually investigate and mostly using salty islamist expats as sources (the same people who were talking about converting copts not long ago), not to mention many actors benefit immensely from maintaining the "oriental dictatorships" facade. And you would think people would be more suspect of trusting any NGOs on factual info about foreign nations, esp after Jordan. Or even by the fact that they shy away from human rights violations commited by countries that are in the "West"


Or we could trust the state-controlled media. I'm sure that they're absolutely fair and unbiased. It's a little bit difficult to find independent journalists in Egypt, since they tend to be in jail.
And this is why I no longer bother giving out sources, because no matter what they get dismissed as state propganda no matter if the source in question is even based in egypt. And no there are plenty of independent journalists here (i am related to five of them) and if badmouthing or criticising the gov't publicly was a crime, they, me and a big chunk of the country's media would be in jail rn.



That ignores:

a) guy was insanely popular at the time given he was the public face of the army, who were immensely popular for refusing orders to fire on protestors and got rid of the maliciously incompetent Morsi

b) he was guaranteed to win regardless by virtue of being the most famous and recognisable candidate and the MB having killed or exiled any possible rival by that point

c) democracies in their infancies tend to have such land slide wins simply because most people at that point are still learning the ropes of how to use their votes, what parties to back, etc and thus the first elections devolve into popularity contests won by who is most well known, like how Washington won by a 85% margin in the first US election and a 100% one in 1792 (unless you mean to say the US is not a real democracy).



Now regardless i am willing to provide actual infromation on egypt's political landscape, economy, society, etc for this thread but lets first agree that most of what is known about egypt is either inaccurate, exaggerated or just plain wrong
 
isn't HRW the group that posed with Ánez? the fascistic coup president of bolivia?
 
I gotta admit, @AKuz , that a 97% vote share for the winning candidate in an election is not what one would normally call a good sign. Even if the opposition to the winner consists of a bunch of rotten snakes, those snakes would presumably make up enough of the population to scrape together more than 3% of the vote.

The first of those presents a troubling aspect.

The second and third less so. You would hope, idealistically, that people who give a damn about human rights and have criticized the US's human rights record in the past could get positions responsible for the State Department's human rights branch. The third cannot be commented on without (as in the first case) pointing out some specific abuse committed by this individual that justifies the problem.

Otherwise you end up just tainting groups by association with other groups, who are in turn recursively tainted by association with the first group, or with a position whose villainy is presumed rather than proven by their actions.

Keep in mind that the "assault on Yugoslavia" was the war where NATO stopped the Serbians from ethnically cleansing the Bosnians. So it's entirely possible for someone to support the 1999 war out of a dedication to the concept of human rights.

No need for a conspiracy here, just a lack of care to actually investigate and mostly using salty islamist expats as sources (the same people who were talking about converting copts not long ago), not to mention many actors benefit immensely from maintaining the "oriental dictatorships" facade. And you would think people would be more suspect of trusting any NGOs on factual info about foreign nations, esp after Jordan. Or even by the fact that they shy away from human rights violations commited by countries that are in the "West"

Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Freedom House are all incompetent? Would you like me to find more international human rights organizations that describe Egypt as a military dictatorship? Because I can.

Are you claiming that there are no dictatorships in Africa or the Middle East?

Your argument boils down to "All NGOs are liars" and "Westerners do bad things so what we do doesn't count". That's certainly an interesting perspective.

Human Rights Watch. Amnesty International. Freedom House. Three sources. Three organizations dedicated to condemning human rights abuses around the globe. All of them saying the same thing about Egypt.

And this is why I no longer bother giving out sources, because no matter what they get dismissed as state propganda no matter if the source in question is even based in egypt. And no there are plenty of independent journalists here (i am related to five of them) and if badmouthing or criticising the gov't publicly was a crime, they, me and a big chunk of the country's media would be in jail rn.

"I no longer bother giving out sources".

That says a lot about your argument.

www.amnesty.org

Egypt: End relentless attacks on journalists and other media workers

The Egyptian authorities must put an end to its relentless crackdown on media and ensure the free flow of information particularly critical now during the COVID-19 public health emergency


Sources are nice. I have them. You don't. There is in fact a substantial list of independent Egyptian journalists who are in jail under al-Sisi's regime, a fact that you would be more aware of if you actually read the reports issued by those foreign NGOs.

That ignores:

a) guy was insanely popular at the time given he was the public face of the army, who were immensely popular for refusing orders to fire on protestors and got rid of the maliciously incompetent Morsi

b) he was guaranteed to win regardless by virtue of being the most famous and recognisable candidate and the MB having killed or exiled any possible rival by that point

c) democracies in their infancies tend to have such land slide wins simply because most people at that point are still learning the ropes of how to use their votes, what parties to back, etc and thus the first elections devolve into popularity contests won by who is most well known, like how Washington won by a 85% margin in the first US election and a 100% one in 1792 (unless you mean to say the US is not a real democracy).



Now regardless i am willing to provide actual infromation on egypt's political landscape, economy, society, etc for this thread but lets first agree that most of what is known about egypt is either inaccurate, exaggerated or just plain wrong

That ignores:

a) The main opposition candidate was arrested in 2018. Also, the army did fire on protestors in Rabaa Square.

b) He was guaranteed to win regardless by virtue of the fact that the army wanted him to win. Ninety-seven percent. Of course, in 2018 there was only one candidate running in the election against him, and he was a Sisi supporter. All of the other candidates decided to drop out, sometimes after being arrested. Yes, this is truly a free and fair election.

c) How fortunate that I have actual evidence that Sisi's election was neither free nor fair.

https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/8000/mde120282014en.pdf

You have provided no information. You have also provided no sources. We aren't going to agree that most of what is known about Egypt is inaccurate, exaggerated, or just plain wrong, because that's the kind of defense that a dictatorship invents when they don't want to admit the truth.

Human Rights Watch. Amnesty International. Freedom House. All of them tell the same story about Egypt. I'm sorry, Person On the Internet, but I don't see you as a reliable source compared to multiple human rights organizations all providing the same testimony.

Edit: It occurs to me that this is kind of a derail. But it also kind of isn't, since we're arguing about whether Egypt could become a military dictatorship. Or at least some of us are arguing that, while others have accepted the obvious fact that Egypt is a military dictatorship.
 
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And you would think people would be more suspect of trusting any NGOs on factual info about foreign nations, esp after Jordan.
What about Jordan? Could you expand on that?

That ignores:

a) guy was insanely popular at the time given he was the public face of the army, who were immensely popular for refusing orders to fire on protestors and got rid of the maliciously incompetent Morsi

b) he was guaranteed to win regardless by virtue of being the most famous and recognisable candidate and the MB having killed or exiled any possible rival by that point

c) democracies in their infancies tend to have such land slide wins simply because most people at that point are still learning the ropes of how to use their votes, what parties to back, etc and thus the first elections devolve into popularity contests won by who is most well known, like how Washington won by a 85% margin in the first US election and a 100% one in 1792 (unless you mean to say the US is not a real democracy).
You could certainly make that argument for the United States, given how oligarchic the voting requirements were, but...

On a more salient level, were those electoral vote margins or popular vote margins? I don't for a moment believe that George Washington won 100% of the popular vote in 1792...

isn't HRW the group that posed with Ánez? the fascistic coup president of bolivia?
Now that is a fair point.

Keep in mind that the "assault on Yugoslavia" was the war where NATO stopped the Serbians from ethnically cleansing the Bosnians. So it's entirely possible for someone to support the 1999 war out of a dedication to the concept of human rights.
Well yes, but if HRW called the war itself a violation of human rights then, but has one of the masterminds of the war on their board of directors now, then there is, to put it mildly, something of an inconsistency.

Either HRW was right then, in which case they now have some very fox-like people guarding their henhouse...

Or HRW was wrong then, in which case that's not a good sign for their ability to pick the right side in a human-rights-related conflict (likewise with Ánez), and argues that they may be making similar mistakes today with Egypt.

All in all, we should maybe remove them as a source because their reliability is in question, just as you might do for, say, an Egyptian newspaper taking major subsidies from the government. I'm not saying to drop the others, mind you.

"I no longer bother giving out sources".

That says a lot about your argument.
To be fair, someone who was right about foreign press chronically misrepresenting their home country, and who suffered from a constant tendency of foreigners to dismiss the native-language media coverage of that country from within as "biased," would at some point have excellent reason to give up in disgust. Even if they were right.
 
I too trust an organization that overpays it's management staff and bullies its employees to death.

Then after an outside audit reveals systematic workplace bullying, sexism, racism, they refused to hold anyone accountable.

They certainly must know a thing or two about being callaus and cruel.

And also accepts government funding despite claiming to reject state funding.
 
All in all, we should maybe remove them as a source because their reliability is in question, just as you might do for, say, an Egyptian newspaper taking major subsidies from the government. I'm not saying to drop the others, mind you.

To be fair, someone who was right about foreign press chronically misrepresenting their home country, and who suffered from a constant tendency of foreigners to dismiss the native-language media coverage of that country from within as "biased," would at some point have excellent reason to give up in disgust. Even if they were right.

I mean, I provided three sources for a reason.

Notably, my opponents have provided zero sources, and continue to provide zero sources. Unless they wish to argue that every human rights NGO everywhere is either corrupt or incompetent, they should have more than what they've provided. Which, again, is nothing.

I too trust an organization that overpays it's management staff and bullies its employees to death.

Then after an outside audit reveals systematic workplace bullying, sexism, racism, they refused to hold anyone accountable.

They certainly must know a thing or two about being callaus and cruel.

And also accepts government funding despite claiming to reject state funding.

AKuz: Provides zero sources to support her argument.
AKuz: Provides zero sources or details for her accusation against "an organization" that she doesn't even name.
AKuz: Uses ad homenin attacks while refusing to address or acknowledge any of my sources. I provided three, by the way, so even if you think one of them is totally unreliable you still have to consider the other two.
AKuz: Isn't arguing in good faith.

I understand that Internet arguments aren't held to the same standards as college research papers, but if I presented this kind of work to my professors they would invent a "G" because an "F" would be too good for it. You keep offering four-sentence posts with no substance, no details, and no meaning.

Find a human rights NGO that gives Egypt an "A". Or a "B". Find a human rights NGO that supports your story rather than my own. There are a great many human rights organizations based outside of Egypt; surely they can't all be corrupt or incompetent?

Do your homework. Or don't do your homework, but don't expect people to take your arguments seriously when you fail to provide sources or evidence or anything except the unsupported assertion that Egypt totally isn't a military dictatorship, forget what Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International and Freedom House have to say.
 
Now that is a fair point.
i recall HRW both writing about bolivia's anez government as trespassing law, then morales' successor as trespassing law and etc, etc, and then at some point having a photo-op with anez for some reason.

I can't refind it anymore, but if you read HRW's writing on their own site, it's basically law-fellatio, and i'm not even sure if it's the kind that leads to the correct enforcement of human rights.

The problem is that unless you know or speak egyptian, sources are going to be very hard to find in the mess the israel conflict created. Google "amnesty" and "criticism" or "bias" and you get steinberg. Not that it is impossible for amnesty to be wrong, a healthy amount of arbitrary skepticism, especially for actors that are stationed well outside the countries, is arguably good.


Edit: Hoh... Source is a bit biased (look at his twitter and you'll note he wouldn't exactly be out of place in our leftist thread), but still.

There are a great many human rights organizations based outside of Egypt
This is kind of a catch 22 in some respect. One i have run into many times in the israel debates on SV. "Outside" does not automatically mean "unbiased", neither does "inside" mean "biased" by default.
 
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i recall HRW both writing about bolivia's anez government as trespassing law, then morales' successor as trespassing law and etc, etc, and then at some point having a photo-op with anez for some reason.

I can't refind it anymore, but if you read HRW's writing on their own site, it's basically law-fellatio, and i'm not even sure if it's the kind that leads to the correct enforcement of human rights.

The problem is that unless you know or speak egyptian, sources are going to be very hard to find in the mess the israel conflict created. Google "amnesty" and "criticism" or "bias" and you get steinberg. Not that it is impossible for amnesty to be wrong, a healthy amount of arbitrary skepticism, especially for actors that are stationed well outside the countries, is arguably good.

Again, this is why I provided three sources.

Here's another from Reporters Without Borders.

rsf.org

2020 World Press Freedom Index | RSF

Access all the data about the 2020 Press Freedom Index.

Sources. They're good to have.

This is kind of a catch 22 in some respect. One i have run into many times in the israel debates on SV. "Outside" does not automatically mean "unbiased", neither does "inside" mean "biased" by default.

"Outside" does not mean "unbiased", which is why it helps to have multiple sources. However, while "inside" does not mean "biased" by default, in this context there are problems. I'm specifically accusing Egypt of suppressing independent journalism; if this accusation is true, then Egyptian sources will be rather more biased.

Of course, if Egypt is innocent of these charges, then surely Reporters Without Borders will speak the truth. Or Human Rights Watch, or Amnesty International, or Freedom House...

Instead, all four organizations have reached the same conclusions about Egypt. When one side of an argument cites multiple independent NGOs, and the other side cites nothing, it's pretty clear who has the stronger case.

Imagine relying upon North Korean sources to report on human rights violations in North Korea.
 
Again, this is why I provided three sources.

Here's another from Reporters Without Borders.

rsf.org

2020 World Press Freedom Index | RSF

Access all the data about the 2020 Press Freedom Index.

Sources. They're good to have.



"Outside" does not mean "unbiased", which is why it helps to have multiple sources. However, while "inside" does not mean "biased" by default, in this context there are problems. I'm specifically accusing Egypt of suppressing independent journalism; if this accusation is true, then Egyptian sources will be rather more biased.

Of course, if Egypt is innocent of these charges, then surely Reporters Without Borders will speak the truth. Or Human Rights Watch, or Amnesty International, or Freedom House...

Instead, all four organizations have reached the same conclusions about Egypt. When one side of an argument cites multiple independent NGOs, and the other side cites nothing, it's pretty clear who has the stronger case.

Imagine relying upon North Korean sources to report on human rights violations in North Korea.

Your sources have a bit of a problem in that they're kind of monotonously the same type of organizations?

like, again, this fall straight into the problem i had with the Israel thread, where the only way i was able to navigate somewhat within my own conscience was by comparing a pro-Israel paper with a lefty Israel paper with a middle eastern source, a European source and reading some of the text that was available from the Israeli government. And then filtering out a few weirdos. Similarly while egypt might be surpressing journalism, i'm not about to take the NGO's at their word for how and what without some salt. The north korean metaphor is doubly dumb as i'd state most of my knowledge out of what NK defectors or escapees would say, but i'd still take western NGO's reporting on that with some salt. Not because kim's such a nice fellow, but because the NGO's have a motive for sensationalizing certain aspects which can be to the detriment of the people suffering.

More to the point, It's not like people have a spreadsheet of reputable sources at their hand and you could chill a little and wait for akuz and starmaker to actually present their sides without hammering them 5 times a post for not having things in easy access. Like, this is not a debate of some kind that has to be won within the hour, unless you've somehow convinced yourself there's a panel you need to convince in this page, on this hour, this day only.

Also as a minor note, i did in fact include sources in my post? not on egypt, unlike the others I'm as white as they can be and if i wanted to talk about egypt politically i'd have asked the one person i know who has lived there first. On top of the fact i can't find shit from google and am not in the mood for 5 hours of searching, really.
 
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Your sources have a bit of a problem in that they're kind of monotonously the same type of organizations?

like, again, this fall straight into the problem i had with the Israel thread, where the only way i was able to navigate somewhat within my own conscience was by comparing a pro-Israel paper with a lefty Israel paper with a middle eastern source, a European source and reading some of the text that was available from the Israeli government. And then filtering out a few weirdos. Similarly while egypt might be surpressing journalism, i'm not about to take the NGO's at their word for how and what without some salt. The north korean metaphor is doubly dumb as i'd state most of my knowledge out of what NK defectors or escapees would say, but i'd still take western NGO's reporting on that with some salt. Not because kim's such a nice fellow, but because the NGO's have a motive for sensationalizing certain aspects which can be to the detriment of the people suffering.

More to the point, It's not like people have a spreadsheet of reputable sources at their hand and you could chill a little and wait for akuz and starmaker to actually present their sides without hammering them 5 times a post for not having things in easy access. Like, this is not a debate of some kind that has to be won within the hour, unless you've somehow convinced yourself there's a panel you need to convince in this page, on this hour, this day only.

Also as a minor note, i did in fact include sources in my post? not on egypt, unlike the others I'm as white as they can be and if i wanted to talk about egypt politically i'd have asked the one person i know who has lived there first. On top of the fact i can't find shit from google and am not in the mood for 5 hours of searching, really.

QM says take a breath, so we should take a breath.
 
Eh, this easily feels like the discussion could be moved to N&P if the thread owner wants it to be moved. just ask akuzz or starmaker to reply there instead of here.
 
The underlying problem is that we do need to sort out what's happened to Egypt in Victoria Falls.

Now, we have something of a "Schroedinger's Cat" situation with Egypt right now, in that we have two very different pictures of the country's present-day internal politics.

1) Either it's a nascent hopefully-democracy whose admittedly kind-of-strongmanny leadership figure, Sisi, just happens to be wildly popular, only occasionally having to crack down on anti-democratic elements after the military kindly helped set aside his autocratic predecessor, and all evidence to the contrary comes from biased foreigners and expats with a grudge...

2) Or it's a military dictatorship with the barely-nominally-civilian leadership figure Sisi running the place for the Army's benefit and crushing political opposition to his rule and all evidence to the contrary comes from media he holds at gunpoint.

...

Deducing which of these two takes on the country's underlying national character is fundamentally true is probably beyond the scope of this discussion thread. Personally I find myself a bit conflicted. Because on the one hand, I don't want to disrespect the actual Egyptian(s) who come to this thread to comment on conditions in the country. But on the other hand, I am hesitant to completely ignore reports of abuses just because they are coming from foreigners.

So what can we agree upon that will hopefully reduce contention? Perhaps something that represents a plausible outcome regardless of how we describe Egypt's present state?

Victoria Falls is not a timeline that's kind to many nations, and I doubt Egypt will be an exception to the rule... but there are a lot of ways for a country to fare poorly.
 
Africa has a relatively low profile internationally.
So I'm putting down a couple posts, so that posters have a reference point for at least some of the continent's demographic markers.
As a basis of argument.

Data Dump 1
First source is Wikipedia:

Major economic unions are shown in the chart below.

African Economic Community
Pillar
regional
blocs (REC)
Area
(km²)
PopulationGDP (PPP) ($US)Member
states
(millions)(per capita)
Other
regional
blocs
Area
(km²)
PopulationGDP (PPP) ($US)Member
states
(millions)(per capita)
EAC2,440,409169,519,847411,8132,4296
ECOWAS/CEDEAO5,112,903349,154,0001,322,4523,78815
IGAD5,233,604187,969,775225,0491,1977
AMU/UMA a​6,046,441102,877,5471,299,17312,6285
ECCAS/CEEAC6,667,421121,245,958175,9281,45111
SADC9,882,959233,944,179737,3923,15215
COMESA12,873,957406,102,471735,5991,81120
CEN-SAD a​14,680,11129
Total AEC29,910,442853,520,0102,053,7062,40654
WAMZ 1​1,602,991264,456,9101,551,5165,8676
SACU 1​2,693,41851,055,878541,43310,6055
CEMAC 2​3,020,14234,970,52985,1362,4356
UEMOA 1​3,505,37580,865,222101,6401,2578
UMA 2​ a​5,782,14084,185,073491,2765,8365
GAFTA 3​ a​5,876,9601,662,5966,3553,8225
During 2004. Sources: CIA World Factbook 2005, IMF WEO Database.
Smallest value among the blocs compared.
Largest value among the blocs compared.
1​: Economic bloc inside a pillar REC.
2​: Proposed for pillar REC, but objecting participation.
3​: Non-African members of GAFTA are excluded from figures.
a​: The area 446,550 km² used for Morocco excludes all disputed territories, while 710,850 km² would include the Moroccan-claimed and partially-controlled parts of Western Sahara (claimed as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic by the Polisario Front). Morocco also claims Ceuta and Melilla, making up about 22.8 km² (8.8 sq mi) more claimed territory.
This box:

Further information: Economy of the African Union

Oil Production in Africa 2012 CIA Factbook as quoted in Wikipedia said:
Oil production by country [1]

RankAreabb/dayYearLike
W: World855400002007 est.
01E: Russia99800002007 est.
02Ar: Saudi Arb92000002008 est.
04As: Libya47250002008 est.Iran
10Af: Nigeria23520002011 est.Norway
15Af: Algeria21730002007 est.
16Af: Angola19100002008 est.
17Af: Egypt18450002007 est.
27Af: Tunisia6640002007 est.Australia
31Af: Sudan4661002007 est.Ecuador
33Af: Eq. Guinea3685002007 est.Vietnam
38Af: DR Congo2610002008 est.
39Af: Gabon2439002007 est.
40Af: Sth Africa1991002007 est.
45Af: Chad1560002008 est.Germany
53Af: Cameroon874002008 est.France
56E: France714002007
60Af: Ivory Coast544002008 est.
Af: Africa107804002011Russia
There are currently eight regional organizations that assist with economic development in Africa:[150]


Name of organizationDate createdMember countriesCumulative GDP (in millions of US dollars)
Economic Community of West African States28 May 1975Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo657
East African Community30 November 1999Burundi, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania232
Economic Community of Central African States18 October 1983Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Guinea, São Tomé and Príncipe, Chad289
Southern African Development Community17 August 1992Angola, Botswana, Eswatini (Swaziland), Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe909
Intergovernmental Authority on Development25 November 1996Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan326
Community of Sahel-Saharan States4 February 1998Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Chad, Togo, Tunisia1, 692
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa5 November 1993Burundi, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Eritrea, Eswatini (Swaziland), Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Seychelles, Sudan, Zambia, Zimbabwe1,011
Arab Maghreb Union17 February 1989Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Tunisia579
See also


World Fertility Rate said:
Population Estimates by Region said:
Population estimates by region (in billions):

200020502100
Eastern Africa0.260.85 (+227%, +1.8% p.a.)1.45 (+458%, +0.6% p.a.)
Middle Africa0.0960.38 (+296%, +2.1% p.a.)0.75 (+681%, +0.8% p.a.)
North Africa0.170.37 (+118%, +1.1% p.a.)0.50 (+194%, +0.3% p.a.)
Southern Africa0.0510.087 (+70%, +0.6% p.a.)0.094 (+82%, -0.1% p.a.)
West Africa0.230.80 (+248%, +2.0% p.a.)1.48 (+543%, +0.7% p.a.)
Africa0.812.49 (+207%, +1.7% p.a.)4.28 (+428%, +0.6% p.a.)
World6.149.73 (+58%, +0.5% p.a.)10.88 (+77%, +0.0% p.a.)
Life Expectancy over time said:
PeriodLife expectancy in
Years
1950–195537.46
1955–196039.95
1960–196542.32
1965–197044.42
1970–197546.51
1975–198048.66
1980–198550.45
1985–199051.72
1990–199551.71
1995–200052.33
2000–200553.67
2005–201056.97
2010–201560.23

Source: World Population Prospects[26]


Proportion of total African population by country
Nigeria (16.38%)
Ethiopia (8.37%)
Egypt (7.65%)
Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.57%)
Tanzania (4.55%)
South Africa (4.47%)
Kenya (3.88%)
Uganda (3.3%)
Other (44.83%)
RanksCountries
(or dependent territory)
Official
figure
(where
available)
Date of
last figure
Source
1Nigeria206,139,5892020Worldometers[3]
2Ethiopia109,224,4142018UN population projections[4][5]
3Democratic Republic of the Congo102,561,403July 1, 2020
4Egypt101,334,404December 8, 2020National population clock
5South Africa59,956,820December 1, 2020
6Tanzania59,734,2182020
7Kenya53,771,2962019
8Uganda45,741,007July,13, 2020
9Algeria43,000,420January 1, 2019Official estimate
10Sudan42,268,269January 25, 2020
11Morocco37,034,729October 10, 2020
12Mozambique28,013,0002015
13Ghana31,072,9402020
14Angola24,383,301May 16, 2014
15Somalia15,893,222January 1, 2019
16Ivory Coast22,671,331May 15, 2014
17Madagascar22,434,3632014
18Cameroon28,524,175April 15, 2021
19Burkina Faso18,450,4942015
20Niger17,138,707December 10, 2012
21Malawi16,832,900July 1, 2016
22Zambia15,473,9052015
23Mali14,528,662April 1, 2009
24Senegal14,354,6902015
25Zimbabwe13,061,239August 17, 2012
26Chad11,039,873May 20, 2009
27Tunisia10,982,754April 23, 2014
28Guinea10,628,972April 2, 2014
29Rwanda10,515,973August 15, 2012
30Benin10,008,749May 11, 2013
31Burundi9,823,8282015
32South Sudan8,260,490April 22, 2008
33Eritrea6,536,000July 1, 2014
34Sierra Leone6,348,3502014
35Togo6,191,155November 6, 2010
36Libya5,298,152April 15, 2006
37Central African Republic3,859,1392017
[6]
38Mauritania3,718,6782016
39Republic of the Congo3,697,490April 28, 2007
40Liberia3,476,608March 21, 2008
41Namibia2,280,700July 1, 2015
42Botswana2,024,904August 22, 2011
43Lesotho1,894,1942011
44Gambia1,882,450April 15, 2013
45Gabon1,802,278October 5, 2013
46Guinea-Bissau1,530,6732015
47Mauritius1,261,208July 1, 2014
48Equatorial Guinea1,222,442July 4, 2015
49Eswatini1,119,3752015
50Djibouti864,618July 1, 2011
Réunion (France)840,974January 1, 2013
51Comoros806,200July 1, 2016
Western Sahara[7]510,713September 2, 2014
52Cape Verde491,875June 16, 2010
Mayotte (France)212,600August 21, 2012
53São Tomé and Príncipe201,7842018
54Seychelles90,945August 26, 2010
Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha (UK)5,633June 2016

Some countries may have citizens that are on average wealthy. These countries/regions could appear in this list as having a small GDP. This would be because the country/region listed has a small population, and therefore small total economy; the GDP is calculated as the population times market value of the goods and services produced per person in the country.[3][4]

These figures should therefore be used with caution.

Comparisons of national wealth are also frequently made on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP), to adjust for differences in the cost of living in different countries. PPP largely removes the exchange rate problem, but has its own drawbacks; it does not reflect the value of economic output in international trade, and it also requires more estimation than nominal GDP.[5] On the whole, PPP per capita figures are more narrowly spread than nominal GDP per capita figures.[6]

The 2020 estimates are as follows:[7][8][9][10]






















GDP (Nominal) of Africa 2019
Nigeria (18.13%)
South Africa (15.13%)
Egypt (12.21%)
Algeria (7.49%)
Morocco (4.94%)
Kenya (4.04%)
Angola (3.76%)
Ethiopia (3.71%)
Ghana (2.78%)
Tanzania (2.78%)
Other Countries (27.81%)


RankCountryNominal GDP
($ billions)
Nominal GDP
per capita
(US$)
--​
Total
2,333.978​
1​
466.882,210.00
2​
374.893,610.00
3​
317.195,240.00
EAC
220.6401,184.87
4​
147.3233,331.08
5​
112.2203,121.38
6​
101.0482,075.22
7​
95.588974.09
8​
73.5942,374.00
9​
64.1231,105.55
10​
62.7242,021.31
11​
61.5022,281.42
12​
46.062456.89
13​
39.2263,295.45
14​
39.0361,493.12
15​
37.733915.35
16​
32.576734.60
17​
24.4091,455.47
18​
21.8053,282.04
19​
18.9091,001.44
20​
Mali
17.685899.22
21​
16.082768.83
22​
15.8726,557.51
23​
15.2921,258.92
24​
15.1457,185.42
25​
14.557455.01
26​
14.199514.85
27​
14.002921.85
28​
12.971535.83
29​
12.500910
30​
11.3418,950.70
31​
Chad
10.510639.85
32​
10.428823.40
33​
10.2524,051.93
34​
10.0287,131.16
35​
9.9642,128.23
36​
8.330399.10
37​
7.4281,790.95
38​
Togo
5.719690.28
39​
4.918
40​
4.177303.15
41​
4.140518.47
42​
3.8483,414.81
43​
3.4083,074.33
44​
3.131263.67
45​
3.068653.60
46​
2.321480.49
47​
2.075585.16
48​
1.906924.21
49​
1.8703,358.33
50​
1.806746.33
51​
1.392766.75
52​
1.2001,336.95
53​
1.19812,322.59
54​
0.4171,911.89
S

List

Region
Rank
CountryPeak value of GDP (PPP) as of 2020
Billions of International dollars
Peak Year
Africa
6,906.222
2018
1Egypt
1,346.225​
2021
2
1,116.255​
2021
3
761.824​
2019
4
516.522​
2019
5
291.495​
2021
6
289.954​
2019
7
262.669​
2021
8
228.173​
2007
9
221.326​
2019
10
220.516​
2016
11
186.682​
2021
12
171.006​
2021
13Côte d'Ivoire
156.038​
2021
14
130.498​
2019
15Uganda
114.896​
2021
16Democratic Republic of the Congo
106.138​
2021
17Cameroon
101.950​
2021
18Zambia
64.638​
2021
19Senegal
62.412​
2021
20Burkina Faso
50.225​
2021
21Mali
49.987​
2021
22Madagascar
46.350​
2021
23Mozambique
45.990​
2020
24Botswana
43.907​
2019
25Gabon
38.582​
2018
26Equatorial Guinea
37.689​
2012
27Zimbabwe
35.565​
2018
28South Sudan
35.254​
2011
29Chad
30.563​
2015
30Republic of the Congo
29.749​
2018
31Mauritius
29.187​
2018
32Guinea
28.637​
2018
33Benin
27.471​
2018
34Namibia
27.444​
2018
35Rwanda
26.997​
2018
36Malawi
23.682​
2018
37Niger
23.475​
2018
38Somalia
19.568​
2018
39Mauritania
18.119​
2018
40Togo
13.886​
2018
41Sierra Leone
12.619​
2014
42Eswatini (Swaziland)
11.496​
2018
43Eritrea
9.997​
2018
44Burundi
8.184​
2018
45Lesotho
7.231​
2018
46Liberia
6.440​
2018
47Central African Republic
4.293​
2012
48Cape Verde
3.983​
2018
49Djibouti
3.964​
2018
50Gambia
3.884​
2018
51Guinea-Bissau
3.385​
2018
52Seychelles
2.873​
2018
53Comoros
1.384​
2018
54São Tomé and Príncipe
0.726​
2018
S
 
Victoria Falls is not a timeline that's kind to many nations, and I doubt Egypt will be an exception to the rule... but there are a lot of ways for a country to fare poorly.
Egypt controls the Suez Canal.
Suez access is more or less a prerequisite for Russian ability to exit the Mediterranean and get into the Gulf without having to ship heavy equipment all the way through Gibraltar and around the Cape. Or having to rely on Iranian overland access through occupied Azerbaijan/Armenia/Turkmenistan.

Or invent teleportation.

Therefore Egyptian survival and frankly success is a prerequisite for the setting to work. So it seems to me anyway.
And that colors much of the rest of North and East Africa.
 
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Human Rights Watch. Amnesty International. Freedom House. Three sources. Three organizations dedicated to condemning human rights abuses around the globe. All of them saying the same thing about Egypt.
Because all of them push the same agenda maybe? Maybe because I have a hard time trusting the same NGO that was condoning the Bolivia coup headed by people who explicitly compare indigenous people to satanists?

Maybe because I don't really trust sources that tend to gloss over Sweden's shitty treatment of Minorities like gypsies or Canada being downright genoicidal towards its indugenous population and other such shit beyond maybe a token mention on a good day.

Given that, i have zero inclination to trust them on whose elections are fair or not.

Sources are nice. I have them. You don't. There is in fact a substantial list of independent Egyptian journalists who are in jail under al-Sisi's regime, a fact that you would be more aware of if you actually read the reports issued by those foreign NGOs.
And if you cared enough to follow on those arrests you would find that the reporters in question are often released, acquited, etc.

Now granted i will be the first to admit that egypt's freedom of press is still in beta testing rn and needs lots of work but to say that "there is no indepndent journalism in egypt" is a gross claim that i doubt you can verify without sourcing some NGO that uses the Al monitor or Middle east eye as their source.
Like seriosuly what is exactly the methodology that HRW and such orgs follow in determining who is free or not?

Moving on though, I would very much like to have a nuanced discussion on egypt and many of the real problems it faces, like easily abused defamation laws, the entrnched mubarak era oligarchy, Sisi subtly trying to live up to Western media's expectations, etc but if i get bombarded by people who can't even name the ruling coalition in the parliament claiming to know more about where I live than me (an actual egyptian who has an actual education in the politics and history of the country and hands on experience) and spamming biased western NGO shit at me then I know where this discussion is going and I have no interest in seeing an oriental caricature of egypt being paraded around as true.

Like really what do you actually know of egypt random person online? Do you even know what SCA means?

Your argument boils down to "All NGOs are liars" and "Westerners do bad things so what we do doesn't count". That's certainly an interesting perspective.
More like "NGOs are biased, esp when they are based in neo-colonial cores" and "I would appericate less double standards when it comes to the West's still shitty human rights record and corrupt governance"


What about Jordan? Could you expand on that?
The Day-Waged Labor Movement protests, not really well known and won't find much about them online in english as jordan is one of the more overlooked countries in the MENA even if you are an arabic speaker. You can learn the story here
 
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