Things that I would like to respond to, but won't, because the QM said "take a breath".
"Take a breath" doesn't mean "resume the argument as soon as possible".
I will admit that to me personally, an ex-general coming to power after the military deposed the prior government and organized elections which he won with 97% of the vote does not sound good. Like, at the very least I do think it fairly obvious when the military has so recently proven willing to get rid of a government, we may presume that the new one has their active approval — and that they did something to secure it. Beyond that, it would seem that things are difficult to nail down.
That said, the question of Egypt's survival during the Collapse, to me, seems less relevant to the bigness of IRL's Chungus, but rather to their ability to withstand a complete collapse of international trade and finance. This process, in-universe, began with Donald Trump enacting a default on American sovereign debt.
I am confident both that Egypt has sufficient national identity to reform in the aftermath of a collapse, and that nobody nearby has the military capacity/motive to force that not to happen. The real question is if their economy can actually hold together enough that there was no dissolute period.
On that note: what is this I hear about Egypt having to import food?
Most of that is wheat, mainly cause local demand for its products is high and subsidisedOn that note: what is this I hear about Egypt having to import food?
Most of that is wheat, mainly cause local demand for its products is high and subsidised
Yes, i saw your worldbuilding suggestion and I mostly agree with Akuz's assesment of it. You neglect several key factors in egypt's food security apparatus like the effects of climate change on it (if you wanna a surefire way of making egypt depndent on russian imports for starts), Sudan being there as a puppet to loot and force to prop up the egyptian markets and the many projects currently aimed at expanding wheat production (so far in infancy but still). But sure if you wanna go the "corrupt oriental military goverment can't do food security" route no problem.Right. But if they suddenly lose access to those imports in the middle of an economic collapse with possible plague added in...
The argument wasn't "Egypt is completely incapable of food independence". The argument was "Egypt failed to make a successful transition to food independence at the worst possible time to make such a transition".
Been looking for this map, thank you kindlyFunny you should mention Abdul Fattah el-Sisi. His predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, was one of the most inept politicians I've ever had the misfortune of researching. His attempt to basically ignore the hardcore Islamist constitution of 2013, one he pushed so hard to pass in parliament, secured his downfall. Among other injustices was his corruption in the 2011 elections (his cousin ram the election commission that oversaw the general elections, which surprise surprise isn't a recipe for transparent elections), the collapse of the rail network, and his ineptitude as a statesman. There's a reason as to why the petition demanding his removal had more signatures than people who protested in 2011. Protests rocked the country before the military ousted him. Ever wonder why there was no counter revolution to oust Sisi? It's because Morsi was that hated.
In addition, Egypt has a real democracy that has attenuated to the demands of its people. It has real elections, and a genuine government. I even consulted with an actual Egyptian to make an election map of their real-life elections, not alternate elections.
If you don't believe me, here's the National Election Authority's website
Take a look at the earliest threadmarks. The Middle East section eventually settled on the notion of pan-Islamism being discredited, in large part due to Iran's eager -- and Turkey's eventual -- cooperation with Alexander in razing the region to the ground. The notion of a pan-Islamic identity is discredited because clearly, ITTL, it has no motive force on national actors, and everybody can see that. Pan-Arabism is something we established as making a comeback because the common theme of the places in the ME Alexander dicked over is that they are Arabic regions, and his most active assistants in that were not. It is not a dominant movement at this time; I'm quite aware it's thoroughly discredited in our modern day, and has a lot of ground to make up.Yes, i saw your worldbuilding suggestion and I mostly agree with Akuz's assesment of it. You neglect several key factors in egypt's food security apparatus like the effects of climate change on it (if you wanna a surefire way of making egypt depndent on russian imports for starts), Sudan being there as a puppet to loot and force to prop up the egyptian markets and the many projects currently aimed at expanding wheat production (so far in infancy but still). But sure if you wanna go the "corrupt oriental military goverment can't do food security" route no problem.
Also I lost all respect for your knowledge on the subject when you brought in pan-arabism into the mix instead of the currently far more widespread pan-islamic current
...I'm not here to give you any sort of fight, you realize. I am not opining that Morsi was an angel, and nor did my post opine anything on el-Sisi besides, "97% approval is kinda sketch, especially under the circumstances, and however it happened, clearly at some point the military decided they didn't really mind having him around." I did not accuse him of anything. I did not start ranting from a pulpit about corruption. I am not some arrogant westerner condemning an entire nation as a failed state based on secondhand reports I know to be suspect. The entire purpose of this exercise is me freely admitting my lack of grounding in the regions we are here to cover, and soliciting insight from those more learned. I do not particularly welcome the aggression of your entrance to the argument.Funny you should mention Abdul Fattah el-Sisi. His predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, was one of the most inept politicians I've ever had the misfortune of researching. His attempt to basically ignore the hardcore Islamist constitution of 2013, one he pushed so hard to pass in parliament, secured his downfall. Among other injustices was his corruption in the 2011 elections (his cousin ram the election commission that oversaw the general elections, which surprise surprise isn't a recipe for transparent elections), the collapse of the rail network, and his ineptitude as a statesman. There's a reason as to why the petition demanding his removal had more signatures than people who protested in 2011. Protests rocked the country before the military ousted him. Ever wonder why there was no counter revolution to oust Sisi? It's because Morsi was that hated.
In addition, Egypt has a real democracy that has attenuated to the demands of its people. It has real elections, and a genuine government. I even consulted with an Egyptian to make an election map of their real-life elections, not alternate elections.
Comparisons
Country Comparison pages are presorted lists of data from selected Factbook data fields. Country Comparison pages are generally given in descending order - highest to lowest - such as Population and Area. The two exceptions are Unemployment Rate and Inflation Rate, which are in ascending - lowest to highest - order. Country Comparison pages are available for the following fields in eight of the twelve Factbook categories.
https://imgur.com/a/RAHSE2i
Yes, i saw your worldbuilding suggestion and I mostly agree with Akuz's assesment of it. You neglect several key factors in egypt's food security apparatus like the effects of climate change on it (if you wanna a surefire way of making egypt depndent on russian imports for starts), Sudan being there as a puppet to loot and force to prop up the egyptian markets and the many projects currently aimed at expanding wheat production (so far in infancy but still). But sure if you wanna go the "corrupt oriental military goverment can't do food security" route no problem.
Also I lost all respect for your knowledge on the subject when you brought in pan-arabism into the mix instead of the currently far more widespread pan-islamic current
I concur. To be more specific, it's the Qatari, and to a greater extent, the Gulf regimes doing their damndest to make the Ikhwan (the Arabic name for the Brotherhood) look like vanguards of democracy. Al-Jazeera has been known to fabricate protests and charges against the Egyptian government, which is extremely funny considering Qatar's kafala system of inheritable and nonnegotiable slavery. Remember Tunisia? They're now under a neoliberal front of the Ikhwan that's under strain by protests. Remember the GNA in Libya? They had anarcho-capitalist elements of the Ikhwan that basically went ham on women's rights. Wikipedia is basically known to take Al-Jazeera and other Gulf outlets as gospel, when they're the Arab equivalent of Fox News.
I do not particularly mind a debate about MENA discussion, since I believe in rigorous debate/discussion in order to produce quality content. Ignoring the current social and political dynamics of one of the African juggernauts and instead basing it off of opinions that are based on pre-2013 Egyptian politics is disappointing, to say the least.
In order:That is a big issue, as well as the problem of record unemployment among young Nigerians. These Nigerians who, might I add, make up the vast majority of the population, and have resorted to crime to make ends meet.
Add an increasingly violent insurgency in the Delta states, a pandemic pulling an India on the healthcare system, a rampaging Boko Haram insurgency, and an out-of-touch elite pulling an America and ignoring the crisis at hand, you got yourself a power keg waiting to ignite.
It'll be bloody, and the diaspora will cause tension among West African states, who have certain attitudes towards the Britain of ECOWAS. So the Collapse would make things already worse in a tense situation.
For another, the agricultural sector retains a shitton of slack, with Nigerian rice productivity at roughly 2 tons a hectare; according to Reuters, thats half the global average and less than a quarter of Egypt's 9.4 tons a hectare.
Believe me when I say internal distribution in Nigeria seems to manage just fine IRL.And there's no particular reason why Nigeria couldn't get significantly higher yields. The technology exists, the know-how exists, the main obstacle in the way is that it is just not profitable to invest in agriculture when it is easier and cheaper to import subsidized milk from the EU and subsidized grain from North America.
The main issue is whether Nigeria can invest enough into agriculture to avoid serious starvation before the collapse hits them hard. Personally, I am optimistic on that front. I am less optimistic about food distribution being handled well during the collapse, but I think the state could survive those issues.
fasquardon
Not heroin, codeine.I'm seeing the tension from the elites and the unemployed Nigerian population, who have been turning to heroin and other hardcore narcotics. In addition, there are real problems with the economy, as it's nearly entirely dominated by petroleum.
Also, I'm referring to a potential refugee crisis in the vicinity of Nigeria. If there is one, expect xenophobia among other West Africans as you see with Guatemalans in Mexico.
Going back to the time of the pharohes would make as much sense as Rome returning to the Principate Empire or the UK returning to tribal warlordism. Frankly its pretty orientalist to suggest it, even in jest.And as far as pan-Arabism-versus-Islamism, what if instead Egypt goes back to Pharonism?
That would require a return to the cultural tenets of Ancient Egypt which... let's be honest, was deader than dead since the death of Cleopatra. The only ones who speak the language today are the Copts, and they're a minority in the country. Plus, even they don't really follow ancient Egyptian culture anymore. The vast majority of the populace, meanwhile, is more decidedly Arab, so Pharaonism will make as much sense to them as the Mandate of Heaven.And as far as pan-Arabism-versus-Islamism, what if instead Egypt goes back to Pharonism?
fasquardon
The Ptolemy dynasty pretty much did as any Pharaoh dynasty would; hell, they followed the Egyptian laws to better fit in with the populace and be accepted as rulers. Sort of how the Qing upheld the Mandate of Heaven when they became rulers of China. Admittedly, the Egyptians were more accepting of the Ptolemys than the Chinese were of the Manchu.Pretty much also Cleopatra the last pharaoh was Greek as were most of them after Alexander the Greats death.
With out saying to much she was one of the better Pharaohs of her Dynasty since the whole Ptolemy was nuts and their inbreeding makes the Hapaburgs and Targs look like the pinnacle of genetic diversity.
Fair point I just remember my brain breaking a bit when I looked at their family tree when I first for a look at it.The Ptolemy dynasty pretty much did as any Pharaoh dynasty would; hell, they followed the Egyptian laws to better fit in with the populace and be accepted as rulers. Sort of how the Qing upheld the Mandate of Heaven when they became rulers of China. Admittedly, the Egyptians were more accepting of the Ptolemys than the Chinese were of the Manchu.
That's certainly true. That kind of families made you wonder how they didn't all become eight-toed drooling morons.Fair point I just remember my brain breaking a bit when I looked at their family tree when I first for a look at it.
True it is rather baffling thatThat's certainly true. That kind of families made you wonder how they didn't all become eight-toed drooling morons.