CthuluWasRight
Fresh Meat for the SV Grinder
- Location
- Canada
Russian mercs are in Central African Republic, not DRC, last I checked. Can I get a citation for Russian mercs in the DRC?
The Russians sell arms to everyone, and have since the Cold War.
They only just signed the agreement for basing in Sudan IIRC in the last year or two.
-Not likely.
Alexander is pushing a pivot to renewables. And unlike crude, natural gas cant be turned into industrial substrates for petrochemicals instead of being burned for fuel. He didnt nuke Middle Eastern production and Venezuelan production of fossil fuels so someone else could start up in a third world country. They touch those gas fields and he'll blow up the rig using proxies out of the Middle East. Or a sub.
-Like I pointed out upthread, Africa's consumption of fossil fuels of all types is tiny.
He's more likely to watch it be outcompeted by market forces (and the lack of spare parts for such machinery) than to expend the effort to actively shut it down. Or Katrina might have done it.
The GM did say that Africa was going to be left mostly on its own.
Russia is also dealing with the Middle East, the countries its invaded, and its efforts in South America to stabilize Brazil.
I mean, Alexander has Japan running amok in the Pacific because he cant spare the effort and resources to intervene there.
And India starts out with IRL 1.8x Russia's nominal GDP , which becomes 2.5x their GDP after adjusting for PPP.
Citation:
Russia and the EU are playing games up in MENA.
But subsaharan Africa is supposed to be relatively free of all that shit. Because most countries have limited resources, even superpowers.
Source for Russian mercs in the DRC: The 'Hybrid' Role of Russian Mercenaries, PMCs and Irregulars in Moscow's Scramble for Africa
"Russia sells arms to everyone" is not, to my mind, a counter to my point. Russian arms exports are a valuable lever for the country to exert influence, and are likely to remain so, if not become even more important, in a period where the Long Peace has collapsed and massive uncertainty is the norm. Russia sells arms to "everyone", "everyone" includes African states, last I checked, including states with the potential to become significant regional hegemons. Like Ethiopia. Or Sudan, for instance, where Russian basing still matters even if it's only a couple of years old. It points to the fact that Russia has retained relationships with several African states well beyond Angola, going back to the Cold War and earlier. And it is a springboard from which Russia can exert further influence in Sub-Saharan Africa which, as I pointed out earlier, any competent aspiring global hegemon would want to do, especially with Africa taking on dramatically increased prominence in world affairs and the global economy.
Alexander pivoting to renewables almost certainly means greater involvement in natural gas as an intervening stage, especially for countries which cannot initially afford massive expenditures on clean energy. There is existing infrastructure for fossil fuels in many, many countries who will still have to keep the lights on during the Great Transition: natural gas is the cleanest of the fossil fuels and also remains valuable for, say, fueling cargo ships and the like, as a cleaner alternative to straight bunker fuel or diesel or what have you, while the considerable technical challenges inherent with getting an electric-powered vessel to be reliable and economical. Natural gas is also still useful as a chemical feedstock in various ways. Simply "blowing up the rig with a submarine" is assinine in its potential to create vastly more environmental problems than it would solve. Africa's consumption of fossil fuels is tiny in comparison to the global market, but this is also because Tanzania and many other African states still struggle with providing steady access to electricity. An Africa which has urbanized and had massive increases in living standards is certain to have vastly higher demand for power. And the European states still need fuel to power their own cities and industries and don't exactly have the time or money for wind parks or solar farms. LNG remains useful in the Quest's present day even if Alexander has finished his big renewables pivot, which he has not. Over the fifty or so years between the fall of the US and the beginning of the Quest? NatGas would almost certainly remain a relevant strategic resource.
Russia's prior presence in Africa, and the immense value of Africa's resources and consumer base, to me speak to Russia holding on in Africa far longer than it could hope to hold on in, say, the Pacific. Again, Russia would not be the sole player here, and I have never argued that it would be. India would also be involved, as would China, but Russia is a definite player here. There would at least be a period while Africa is finding its feet where the various African states cannot afford to turn away investment from anyone, let it be India, China or Russia. Russia can be an active and involved player without committing to full-on military adventurism: it has other levers to influence the various states, not least of which is the fact that it is now the new arbiter of the global economy which Africa is selling its resources and products into. Again, this does not mean that Russia will still be dominant in the 2070s, but it will undeniably have influenced the trajectory of the various African states, especially the areas where it is directly involved like Libya, the DRC, Ethiopia (one of the strongest contenders for a major African power, by the way) and Sudan.
The whole point of this worldbuilding exercise to help Poptart flesh out and expand on what was by their own admission a very brief and barebones summary of global affairs. I think I have enough evidence behind my arguments to justify updating two sentences. And if we want to get technical, Russian is Eurasian, not strictly European.