Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%
  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

And a message is left upon the table to read.

Reevals needed on Walker's flip
Everyone needs progressions now IMO
Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP

And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

End of Day is at
 
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@Zaealix: Like to be clear the only reason I even pushed on you in the first place is because you said something that sounded actually really reasonable about why you would sus -Rosen, but now you're actively refusing to actually push -Rosen.

Yes, pushing -Rosen is probably hopeless at this point in time.

That doesn't make it a worthless endeavor.

But that active refusal to do that and instead to play entirely "safe" votes (countervoting me wasn't really safe btw, but the 99L vote is like super explicitly boringly safe)...

Not town-positive.

Could still be townie, misguided townie, but not playing for town to win.

Last time I saw this sort of thing that made me feel like you have a conviction that the thread is going to fall apart around you was last game, where you pretty much imploded as Firnbot.
 
Sorry, I may be less coherent than I think I am; long day. You explicitly say 99L is the best vote here, then pressure to move away from that vote under the reasoning of it not being particularly useful for solving. But that argument would also be a way for scum to diffuse an argument against a scum buddy without being overly suspicious themselves.
I'm still pretty committed to 99L at this point -- as I already stated, if nothing else, removing 99L now at least gives Town a track away from the railed discussion that was occurring around the infoleak stuff, given the massive extension he provided to it. I just don't think the act of killing 99L is particularly useful in the short term, but I also don't think that about anybody else.

So at this stage, with so many votes already on 99L, I'm comfortable with moving my vote around to search for counter options that aren't names Young Pyromancer. There are still a couple hours until EoD, and since I can't guarantee that there will or won't be any kind of chaos to make the votes close, I'd rather work to put things in a position where YP doesn't potentially get dunked for things I don't think he should get dunked for.
 
Okaay I'm back though idk if I will be around for EoD (that being 4 am and all).

I'm switching my Hermit read back from neutral to town lean. Makes me a bit more positive on Nictis and 99Lies also (also helps that Nictis is posting now).

*frowns*
I hate this.
Very helpful because I completely missed this and it's quite important. However, I actually think this is a town anti-town post. It doesn't exactly outweigh everything else, but the better 99Lies looks the worse Zaealix looks imo so my vote on them might become serious by the end of this post? We will see.

Okay, still having trouble squaring "least bad option available" with "bait." It's feeling like your motives for this hypothetical push are in a weird superposition where it's simultaneously a gambit and kinda sincere.
I think that's fair? And if you find that sus that's also fair. I'd ascribe it to me not feeling capable of doing like an actual gambit/fake push but also wanting to um do one anyway? It's been a long time since I played but I remembered a lack of actual making things happen being something I wanted to get better at (I can like poke and give reads but I have issues doing things with them).

Yes, this is what I am commenting on. I am very devoted to not doing the brain thing anymore.
What does this mean?

I'm probably coming off as 'weird' because nothing strong to form a case on is jumping out at me and Absun's earlier bop is telling me to double-down on making sure I know what I'm talking about.
That and I think I tend to add more odd florishes when I'm unsure, versus when I'm focused on someone.
Absun's earlier reluctance to go into detail about that twigs things a bit-
Like the bad post+vote DOES feel like a good cuff to get someone who's being weird to stop but uhh.
Just saying bad post feels unhelpful to town.
I can sort out and slap a narrative of my own but that's not the same as Absun explaining WHY my post is bad, yanno?
…Doesn't help he's sat his vote on my head instead of using the pressure to try and get people to make claims.
Eeeeh. Like, fair enough on both counts, but also this applies to so many people (including you). Plus I did (briefly) explain when someone (not you, why?) asked. Passable post I guess?

Eh, why not. 5 theories for 99Lies. First three are for the role he was hinting at. Next two are for the problems.
1: Mayor. This has been shot in the water due to him talking about charges. Also means no get out of jail free card.
2: Vigilante. This is less likely given that he is suggesting he is a Cop/Vig like Landmine was. Also, if he was cop/vig then pulling as much attention to his role as he did was a very bad play.
3: Veteran. Obviously not what he is hinting at now, but was one possibility for why he was doing it. With how he's been acting it was more likely to pull protectives and investigatives than scum.

4: Non-Town 3P. Likely Jester in this case, don't care for the consequences if he is, kick him out.
5: Scum. If he is scum then he is just repeating previous scummy behavior so that it's excused as just being something he does, despite that really not being the case. It was out of character last game, and him repeating it is not his style as Town.

It is pretty obvious that the repeat was intentional.

Now as for why I hate it. I hate the slow leaking of role info to pull attention. It's not a claim, despite him being voted out, and the hints are too big for people not to figure a good idea of what he is.
Honestly extremely confused. I disagree very much a lot on what role 99Lies is hinting at to the point that if you weren't, you know, trying to vote them out, I'd think you were intentionally trying to obfuscate.

Not helped that Absun's case is thin
Err, my case on you or your case on me? It's not clear to me.

Don't Want D1'd Ever
Clown Bean
Absum
Nictis
Young Pyromancer
Nanimani

Middling (Prefer not D1'ing but not quite as much certainty as the category above)
Cyricubed
Logos
Ori
Wiadi
Why is Nani in the no D1 ever category compared to Cyri/Ori/Wiadi?


Finally, my vote on Zaealix should now be considered a serious vote. I should have one of those at EoD and atm I prefer Zaealix to 99Lies. I will be attempting some re-recalibrating though. Because (without checking anything) I actually think I feel worst about Bean right now. But then Bean scum doing this makes no sense in a 99Lies Town world imo, so I would need 99Lies scum. But then while that's not impossible I'm increasingly doubting it and would think Zaealix scum more likely then 99Lies. But if Zaealix is scum and 99Lies isn't then Bean scum makes no sense. I guess all 3 of them could be but that feels cospiracy theory tier bad. So uh yeah, vote on Zaealix for now. Also crying because of the seeming 99Lies/YP/Zaealix endgame, actually awful but I'm partially to blame for it so fuck me I guess.

I'll read hugh first because apparently there's a push on them now?
 
You can literally always just [] Null.

But yeah, you shouldn't be voting someone you don't at least think will be good info, and much preferably think has a reasonable chance of being scum. Especially not at this point in Day 1 of all times. It's just not a town mindset.
No bad
No Null
Everyone vote
I mean my opinion on it is that if being sus gets me and the rest of town better info than whatever trainwreck I'm currently seeing would IMO, then being sus is a small price to pay.
I think I said that wrong if that's what you're taking from it.
 
I just don't think the act of killing 99L is particularly useful in the short term, but I also don't think that about anybody else.
To expand on this, as things stand currently I don't believe wagonomics are going to be parcitularly useful for this EoD, barring absolute mayhem in the last ten minutes or something. I do, however, think that without 99L, discussions will move in a far more productive direction over time, whereas killing anyone else is more likely to keep things on the 99L track, given how things have gone around him so far.
 
Aaand do you have anything that's legit on Rosen? I don't think Rosen has necessarily AGREED with the majority opinion all of the time but the problem is it's a flat gut read that can't really be proven without flipping Rosen.
Not actionable at this time, and yes I can chase that read but frankly I'd rather sit on my vote instead of trying to chase a literal lucky coin-flip, when there are arguably more concrete things going on.
At the end of this day, it's still the first day.
I don't think I'm going to be able to be all that comfortable committing and commiting too hard to a nice-sounding theory is how I get Toro'd.
Now is the time to stay loose and ready to pivot.
 
Oh lord I just on, and dnd is starting so I really don't have time to look over...someone give me a super fast recap
 
Because (without checking anything) I actually think I feel worst about Bean right now. But then Bean scum doing this makes no sense in a 99Lies Town world imo, so I would need 99Lies scum.
Could you recap for me why town!99L/scum!Bean doesn't make sense to you? I don't really have those two connected like that at all in my head.
 
Oh lord I just on, and dnd is starting so I really don't have time to look over...someone give me a super fast recap
Zaea is being sus and noncommital, 99L is being sus, YP is sorta sus, and me and -Rosen are kinda tossing up the idea of "just lol a hugh-wagon into existence and see what happens" to see if anything happens, because a Zaea/99L EoD sounds awful to me and me and -Rosen have exactly opposing opinions on who of Zaea/99L is more sus.
 
Can you explain for me then because I'm still confused as to whether you meant the same thing as Byzantine or not :V
I want to stop, but okay.
1000% vibes based. Felt like a slidey "No, I don't want things to go the way I think they're gonna go so I'm gonna start something else to draw votes away from danger" kinda post.
 
FWIW I don't really believe in voting out YP today? I mean, I haven't really reviewed but most of YP's stuff is IMO nowhere near as damning as Zaea's stuff?
 
Alright, have made it back before EoD at least. I'm seeing one call for a response; please let me know if I've missed yours.
tbh I barely remember interacting with YP, and I think my main interaction with CB is after this post, so I will also appreciate the refresher.
I don't see a response from Absum yet, and they may have something else. What I saw for Young Pyromancer was #398 which at the time read weirdly. In retrospect, I'm not sure that weirdness holds up. It's probably just a meme, or maybe two people actually having the same weirdly specific dream.

For Clown Bean, the weirdness was in #165. At the time, it read to me like pushing the argument about someone being a prime nightkill target and thus scum if they live too long into town consciousness without getting particularly attached to it. If I recall correctly, that kind of argument is pretty bad for town as a solve tactic, especially if set up, because scum can keep holding off on that shot, and town tends to never quite find it persuasive. Thus, what the argument tends to accomplish is protecting a player. That points to either Town-Town with either a mason or a soul read, or a scum pair, and both of those options felt weird. T/T because I just don't see that hard a soul read happening off so little interaction and don't think a mason would do that. S/S because that's a lot of wine to wade through for a gambit, and I think any sane scum chat would counsel for Clown Bean to not reveal that early. Between the two, S/S world felt a bit less weird.

In retrospect, I was probably overthinking things, but I still think it'd be worth it for Absum to share if they saw anything else.

Now, for food and to catch up on things properly. From what I caught of the new messages while writing, we're thinking about switching off of 99L? Or are we still doing that?
 
anyways, raid night starts in 17 minutes and I haven't eaten dinner. Will try to look at the thread between pulls, but probably gonna be very not here?
 
Now, for food and to catch up on things properly. From what I caught of the new messages while writing, we're thinking about switching off of 99L? Or are we still doing that?
At least on my end, would very much still prefer 99L over anyone else for EoD, but currently exploring counter-options that would put YP in a safer position than he is currently in as the highest wagon outside of 99L.
 
Ahh, thoughts re:Zaea.

No real read 6et. Most of his posts have just kinda felt like they were missing a piece that makes them a bit more sensible. I'm biased, but that piece feels like Sleep. They haven't generally felt malicious in their actions so much as trying to be a bigger part of things. If Scum 0r9nably solo scum again? No real read either way until I have more definite actions to read.
 
For the process of elimination I bear no ill will if I flip now.
Not great but like the 99L flip it clears someone sus out of the line of picks.
 
Could you recap for me why town!99L/scum!Bean doesn't make sense to you? I don't really have those two connected like that at all in my head.
Scum Bean in a Town 99Lies world would presumably be pushing someone else to look good after the flip. YP is imo a terrible wagon for that. Going "99Lies is doing their normal weird town, Zaealix is doing their normal weird town, YP sus for that one bad infoleak post though I kinda liked them otherwise" is not going to earn you any town credit going into D2. If 99Lies is scum there'd at least be a point.
 
Well is a vote thrown to the void any better? I'd love that option right now!
Vote your suspicions, we're not at End Game where Town has to vote together to not lose. If you vote your town reads then it's not a real town read or you're not really Town. Scream into the void, maybe your danmaku will hit someone that wasn't expecting a bullet from behind.
 
In retrospect, I was probably overthinking things, but I still think it'd be worth it for Absum to share if they saw anything else.
I wouldn't have anything else for the question you're answering here, no (and yes I do think you're overthinking things). I'll try to get to the question you asked me that caused you to get asked this question (lol) but it's not my first priority ye, other stuff first.
 
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