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Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%

  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
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End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
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    • The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



    The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



    The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

    And a message is left upon the table to read.

    Reevals needed on Walker's flip
    Everyone needs progressions now IMO
    Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
    Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
    Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
    Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
    Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
    Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
    Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP
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    And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

    End of Day is at
     
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  • Threadmarks
    • Variable said:
    I mean, I would think it would've been more advantageous for Hugh not to say that and I'm curious about what his role is exactly?
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    Claiming to have been RB'd is nothing interesting about your role. Just as an example, if I were vanilla, roleblocked, and there was a mafia death that night, I'd probably claim it first thing in the day.

    It's situational, but it's probably more inviting of suspicion not to claim it than to claim it.
     
    Hello! I have woken up and caught up with the thread.

    RIP Roach and Nictis.

    Tbh, I'm kinda lost on where to start analyzing the thread, but I'll go and look at Zaealix wagon and try to see what I can glean (nothing, probably).

    Variable said:
    It begs the question what your role is.
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    Assume everyone who claims is a veteran until proven otherwise.
     
    Variable said:
    But since so many people have gone public, it might help if 99L, YP, and Hugh did clarify.
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    Absolutely the fuck not. I'm on the fence about whether or not I trust 99L to have a good reason for keeping quiet on targeting but we don't have any reason to want YP or hugh to claim.
    Ori said:
    Like we can actually read posts of people who pushed Zaea originally and divine potential meaning out of them compared to Dino which was 'vote inactives' so by that standard I chose to flip Zaea.
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    Right, sorry, my initial wording was probably a bit confrontational but I am legitimately curious as to what meaning you can divine from said posts. Because like I said earlier, I tried going back and couldn't really find anything in terms of "arguments by people who were voting Zaea at EoD for why Zaea specifically should die." It feels like it was just all momentum and least-bad-option and so on. So if you're seeing something that makes more sense of it I'd love to know.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    Claiming to have been RB'd is nothing interesting about your role. Just as an example, if I were vanilla, roleblocked, and there was a mafia death that night, I'd probably claim it first thing in the day.

    It's situational, but it's probably more inviting of suspicion not to claim it than to claim it.
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    I thought mechanically players with special roles were the only ones who could roleblocked, so I think I was missing that context.

    A Bunch Of Atoms said:
    Assume everyone who claims is a veteran until proven otherwise.
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    What does the Veteran role do, since I'm assuming that is a role.
     
    Variable said:
    What does the Veteran role do, since I'm assuming that is a role.
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    Either automatically or by manual activation, depending on implementation, it kills anyone who visits at night. See e.g. your role last game, though Rhodes wasn't a 100% generic version.
     
    Variable said:
    I thought mechanically players with special roles were the only ones who could roleblocked, so I think I was missing that context.
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    Generally, anyone can be targeted by a roleblocker, usually they will be informed that they were roleblocked, but people for people without (usually active) night actions it does nothing more than that.
     
    Variable said:
    What does the Veteran role do, since I'm assuming that is a role.
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    Kills whoever is visiting. Veteran can still die from nightkill, but they'll also take down their killer with them.

    Anyway, revealing that you even have a powered role is bad for roughly the same reason me asking if anyone's a vanilla is bad.
     
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    I'm likely going to be spending New Year's Eve reviewing the last forty pages of discussion, but I can try to answer questions if people have any while I'm catching up.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    I would not interpret that as "I want vets to be dead". That's just the wrong sentiment for it.

    It's that in my current read of the PoE, the only person I'm specifically leaning sus on that isn't a vet is Nopeguy. My reads on the vets are much more "Everyone's playing in their normal ranges and they all feel town". But gamestate wise, I don't believe that can actually be true, but I don't at the moment (because it's late at night for me and I should honestly be going to sleep instead of thinking about this at this exact moment, but I'm "awake" so whatever) have a case as to where I want to point this.

    So I'm gonna say my sentiment, and I would caution people to take it more as "Look at the LHF if you want, but I think we'll have much better luck if we do something wilder today." That's the sentiment I want to convey here.
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    Poking at this a little, because that's a name I've remember seeing a few times, for posts #366 and #732, which you've just recontextualized for me. If this is a new player, I'm thinking those posts suddenly look a lot less bad, with the first being mildly town leaning and the second... still a bit of a bad look, actually.

    That puts them still in the neutral column for me, if on the lower side. Was there anything else I may be missing?

    Byzantine said:
    Absum feels really odd this game, but I'm not sure if that's in a scum way or if they are just having trouble communicating.

    Ori has a quite good track record with catching Zaealix as scum, though that may just be a general belief zaealix is scum tbh
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    Following up on this as well. I feel like I have a generally good impression regarding Absum so far, though I can't think of anything specific which is probably a sign to go do a re-read. With some time having passed, and more posts to work with, what is your impression now?
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    @hugh_donnetono @-Rosen @Clown Bean If one of you agree with the reveal, I'll trust you and do it. Also, can I ask for your read on Cyricubed, Absum, and Ori?
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    I think you shouldn't claim this information right now, despite what others are telling you. Since your role essentially looks to sacrifice itself to save someone else, providing any information into your targeting mindset is going to give an unnecessary information to any scum who want to work around that as much as possible.

    Because at this point, Scum!Me would literally never consider you a target for NK after that Day 1, unless you super turned around and got a super accurate solve beyond that point. That meaning, any information that can be used to work around you, should not be shared.
     
    As for reads, I'm still kinda pending on Cyri but I wasn't a fan of his Day 1, Absum is pretty Towny by volume at the moment, and I think Ori is my strongest Town read outside of Hermit now.
     
    In terms of the claim issue, it looks like YP and Hermit are the primary voices saying 99L should claim who he visited. I'm pretty ambivalent about Hermit's stance but kinda give the benefit of the doubt due to the difference in experience, but YP doesn't have that gap in experience, and this stance is honestly something I would honestly heavily consider D1'ing him for, had this conversation been possible and happened at that point (even considering how much I didn't want him dead during Day 1 :V)
     
    Wiadi said:
    ...okay yeah I went back to EoD and I genuinely cannot figure out why Zaea was the one to die there. The only serious case I spotted on a skim was from Shal and Shal wasn't even on that wagon by the end. Can someone walk me through what the hell happened?
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    I don't think anyone actually answered this, so here's my view on it. Couple of competing factors here:

    1. 99L's claim pushed votes off of him. Rough consensus that 99L was probably town.
    2. YP's wagon being composed largely of unavailable players made it a dead-wagon that the active EoD contingent didn't want to go through because there was an active consensus that YP was probably town.
    3. hugh wasn't around, so hugh's wagon wasn't interesting enough to be worth pushing.
    4. dino's wagon was largely an activity push, when he showed up people went to the other wagons still available (Zaea/Atoms).
    5. Not entirely sure about the Atoms wagon, it doesn't seem to have re-surged yet? Might just not have had enough staying power to beat out Zaea's wagon from that.
    6. Zaealix didn't try to fight as a townie. I kinda gutread it by the end as Zaea probably having just given up on arguing in a townie-fashion, but all the stuff available made seeing it any other way perfectly fair too.
    7. Ori had ulterior motives, it looks like, to kill Zaea over a BG claim. I personally agree, strategically.

    But considering all that, do you have any insights on EoD from your read over?
     
    Absum said:
    [X] Vote hugh_donnetono I demand a full reads-list and a vote. You are still posting a lot without giving much/any info and you have still placed literally zero votes this game.
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    Huh, that is a good catch. Hugh knows better than this.

    Hmm, checking every vote ever placed he's put down two votes, both of which were memes.

    @hugh_donnetono explain yourself.

    [x] vote hugh_donnetono

    Logos said:
    Following up on this as well. I feel like I have a generally good impression regarding Absum so far, though I can't think of anything specific which is probably a sign to go do a re-read. With some time having passed, and more posts to work with, what is your impression now?
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    They seem to be catching their stride a bit more, and are not as hard to understand at this point in the game. I'm going to conclude the original post I made the answer was they were having trouble communicating and are starting to see how to interact here in a productive manner. I'm going to give them a town lean, for now.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    2. YP's wagon being composed largely of unavailable players made it a dead-wagon that the active EoD contingent didn't want to go through because there was an active consensus that YP was probably town.
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    At least from my perspective, this notion isn't totally correct. You're right in the sense that I didn't want the YP wagon to happen, but that was more because the wagon on him was far more contingent on 99L's actions, rather than anything YP had actually done himself IMO. With that in mind, I'm keeping a closer eye on the slot in light of early Day 2 conversations now absolutely being of his own volition.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    Not entirely sure about the Atoms wagon, it doesn't seem to have re-surged yet? Might just not have had enough staying power to beat out Zaea's wagon from that.
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    Atoms was also an activity push.

    Byzantine said:
    Hmm, checking every vote ever placed he's put down two votes, both of which were memes.
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    Oh huh I actually somehow missed those when I double-checked. They're indeed both D2 meme-votes though so thankfully it doesn't impact the actual point.
     
    Logos said:
    Poking at this a little, because that's a name I've remember seeing a few times, for posts #366 and #732, which you've just recontextualized for me. If this is a new player, I'm thinking those posts suddenly look a lot less bad, with the first being mildly town leaning and the second... still a bit of a bad look, actually.

    That puts them still in the neutral column for me, if on the lower side. Was there anything else I may be missing?
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    Just to explicitly follow up on this, nothing that immediately comes to mind.
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    Meanwhile, if there are trackers in this game, there is a pretty good chance that they followed you to see if your targets backed up the BG claim. The pool of BG targets and watcher targets is pretty much the same, so that also opens up another avenue. So there's a possibility to out you as scum.
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    Also going to idly wonder why you're expecting 99L to play to the orthodoxy as a BG here. Like, why do you expect the list "people who watchers should watch" and "people who town-BG!99L will BG" to have very much in common? I wouldn't really expect 99L's picks to be super on point with the statistically average best watcher targets, personally, and I don't think that's a bad thing even for town-BG!99L.
     
    -Rosen said:
    I think you shouldn't claim this information right now, despite what others are telling you. Since your role essentially looks to sacrifice itself to save someone else, providing any information into your targeting mindset is going to give an unnecessary information to any scum who want to work around that as much as possible.

    Because at this point, Scum!Me would literally never consider you a target for NK after that Day 1, unless you super turned around and got a super accurate solve beyond that point. That meaning, any information that can be used to work around you, should not be shared.
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    This is an awful reason.

    Yes, don't share information about who you targeted because it might reveal your 'targeting mindset'? What the hell? Prediction night actions is either easy or ridiculously hard. Easy if there's an obvious choice, ridiculously hard otherwise. Besides, protective and kill targets get super WiFoM.

    What are they going to do, learn that lies wants to bg people they think are kill targets? Oh, what a surprise, big shock.

    Knowing who they targeted isn't going to magically let mafia predict who lies will target next time. It's like lies is playing rock paper scissors, I ask what they used last time they played rock paper scissors, and then Rosen runs up and says that that'll let the opponent predict what they'll do now.

    It's ridiculous. I mean, if scum think they've predicted Lies, isn't that just two townies that are protected now? Lies just protects #2 on their list, and now mafia can't shoot either player #1 OR player #2 that night, which is pretty much Lies making their role twice as good.

    This is one of the most flabbergasting arguments I think I've ever seen in a mafia game, and it isn't one town!Rosen would make in a million years.

    [X] Vote -Rosen
     
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