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Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%

  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
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End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
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    • The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



    The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



    The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

    And a message is left upon the table to read.

    Reevals needed on Walker's flip
    Everyone needs progressions now IMO
    Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
    Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
    Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
    Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
    Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
    Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
    Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP
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    And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

    End of Day is at
     
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  • Threadmarks
    • and since i flubbed that question for outsourcing ideas i guess i'll just have to go review Nani myself. alas!
     
    Shalmoa said:
    Also going to idly wonder why you're expecting 99L to play to the orthodoxy as a BG here. Like, why do you expect the list "people who watchers should watch" and "people who town-BG!99L will BG" to have very much in common? I wouldn't really expect 99L's picks to be super on point with the statistically average best watcher targets, personally, and I don't think that's a bad thing even for town-BG!99L.
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    I mean, both protective and watchers are trying to target people who might get killed by mafia, no? That's the same pool.
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    I mean, both protective and watchers are trying to target people who might get killed by mafia, no? That's the same pool.
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    You missed my point though. Why do you think BG!99L is aiming in exactly that pool? On what basis do you think 99L is playing this game with the mind of playing it perfectly, mechanically, strategically correct?

    I know I don't expect mechanically perfect play from 99L. Among other things, we almost certainly wouldn't have known he was BG if I did.
     
    Like bringing up watcher/BG overlap is like asking 99L, even if we did get his target, and then when it comes up outside of the orthodoxy going and saying "Well that doesn't make any sense! You must be scum!"

    Yet perhaps town-BG!99L isn't going to play to the orthodoxy. Doesn't make him not town in that case.

    It's almost a setup for an avoidable miselim.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    You missed my point though. Why do you think BG!99L is aiming in exactly that pool? On what basis do you think 99L is playing this game with the mind of playing it perfectly, mechanically, strategically correct?

    I know I don't expect mechanically perfect play from 99L. Among other things, we almost certainly wouldn't have known he was BG if I did.
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    Ah, that's fair.

    I tend to respect people as rational actors. It's a weakness of mine that's partially deliberate (to avoid me going the whole 'I am so smart you all are idiots muhahaha route), but it's definitely the biggest hole in my mech solves.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    Like bringing up watcher/BG overlap is like asking 99L, even if we did get his target, and then when it comes up outside of the orthodoxy going and saying "Well that doesn't make any sense! You must be scum!"

    Yet perhaps town-BG!99L isn't going to play to the orthodoxy. Doesn't make him not town in that case.

    It's almost a setup for an avoidable miselim.
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    I mean maybe. But like, then you'd know I'm scum for setting up an avoidable Muslim, right?
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    I tend to respect people as rational actors. It's a weakness of mine that's partially deliberate (to avoid me going the whole 'I am so smart you all are idiots muhahaha route), but it's definitely the biggest hole in my mech solves.
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    I wouldn't say that it's that 99L isn't a rational actor. But we've somehow gotten here with a BG claim, so whatever strategy he has in mind doesn't follow the traditional orthodoxy of "this is mechanically on point mafia play".
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    This is an awful reason.

    Yes, don't share information about who you targeted because it might reveal your 'targeting mindset'? What the hell? Prediction night actions is either easy or ridiculously hard. Easy if there's an obvious choice, ridiculously hard otherwise. Besides, protective and kill targets get super WiFoM.

    What are they going to do, learn that lies wants to bg people they think are kill targets? Oh, what a surprise, big shock.

    Knowing who they targeted isn't going to magically let mafia predict who lies will target next time. It's like lies is playing rock paper scissors, I ask what they used last time they played rock paper scissors, and then Rosen runs up and says that that'll let the opponent predict what they'll do now.

    It's ridiculous. I mean, if scum think they've predicted Lies, isn't that just two townies that are protected now? Lies just protects #2 on their list, and now mafia can't shoot either player #1 OR player #2 that night, which is pretty much Lies making their role twice as good.
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    The idea boils down to "give scum as little information as possible, they're already in an advantageous position on that front." Sure, 99L's Night 1 action is not going to inform what his Night 2 action might be -- there simply isn't enough game to make that conclusion yet. From my perspective, however, 99L stating their Night 1 action provides insight on his willingness (or unwillingness) to play the wine you're talking about here, which in itself is valuable information that I frankly don't think Scum should be allowed to have.

    It goes down into a whole rabbit hole of "well even if he is willing to wine, he could just not the next Night" and vice versa, but I think keeping that guessing game at square one is most valuable for the role 99L would want to fill in this game.

    Young Pyromancer said:
    This is one of the most flabbergasting arguments I think I've ever seen in a mafia game, and it isn't one town!Rosen would make in a million years.
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    This is frankly quite insulting, regardless of what alignment of Rosen you think this comes from. Tone it back.
     
    -Rosen said:
    To expand on this, as things stand currently I don't believe wagonomics are going to be parcitularly useful for this EoD, barring absolute mayhem in the last ten minutes or something. I do, however, think that without 99L, discussions will move in a far more productive direction over time, whereas killing anyone else is more likely to keep things on the 99L track, given how things have gone around him so far.
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    Coming back to this thread, EoD felt pretty chaotic to me. I've already poked at what I saw as a result of it, which unfortunately isn't much. In retrospect, I wouldn't be surprised if it was all town on town with the scum team sitting back and letting it happen, but there's enough noise between videogames, family, holidays, etc., that that doesn't feel like a productive approach.

    Did you get anything more out of it?


    Nanimani said:
    Hey can you please not ping me sus-dar quite so much? It's malfunctioning, so pinging it doesn't really help anyone at all.
    But I see people trying to move votes away from either YP or 99, depending on where you think the wagon's gonna move closer to EoD, and I get the feeling I got for Nictis/Byz.

    Now considering how that worked out, I'm not gonna actually react to it, but I hate having that voice burrowed in my head.
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    Did this ever go anywhere? Quite a bit of thread has passed, which may have given more evidence for or against this impression.
    ... and could you please elaborate what you meant by Nictis/Byz?
     
    Shalmoa said:
    I wouldn't say that it's that 99L isn't a rational actor. But we've somehow gotten here with a BG claim, so whatever strategy he has in mind doesn't follow the traditional orthodoxy of "this is mechanically on point mafia play".
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    True, but we have no reason to believe that extends to bg targets.

    And yeah, if lies names a weird target, I'm going to be suspicious that they're lying about their role and just afraid to be caught out by investigatives. But that's because it's suspicious.

    Saying someone should reveal something that might be sus because it might lead to people voting on them incorrectly is like saying a cop shouldn't reveal a red check because it might be a miller. Yes, I'm exaggerating the probabilities, but the principle is the same.


    -Rosen said:
    This is frankly quite insulting, regardless of what alignment of Rosen you think this comes from. Tone it back.
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    Sorry.
    Shalmoa said:
    Hah...

    Actually this post is kinda bad, isn't it?

    I mean, check your role card? Is that deduction actually correct?
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    …no?
    I'm just saying if I push Lies for sus actions and they flip town, you're welcome to think I'm scum for it.
     
    I genuinely dislike that YP vote on Rosen and think it sucks but I still think it's firmly within town YP range.
     
    I think this is the thing again where I'm considering myself from an outside perspective that doesn't know whether I'm scum or town in order to make logical arguments to other people who legitimately don't know if I'm scum or town, but then people interpret that as me not being town.
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    I think this is the thing again where I'm considering myself from an outside perspective that doesn't know whether I'm scum or town in order to make logical arguments to other people who legitimately don't know if I'm scum or town, but then people interpret that as me not being town.
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    I don't think that's useful like ever just like be town.
     
    I mean TBQH I'm not really interested in the thought process of outside-context!YP, it's just another layer of obfuscation before I can construct a mental model of actual-in-the-game-player!YP.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    @NinetyNineLies @Cyricubed @Absum: Among Logos, Wiadi, and Cyricubed, who do you feel is most town-leaning and who do you feel is least town-leaning?
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    Most: Logos. I can generally follow the logic of their posts and most of it feels like helping town.
    Mid: Wiadi. Slightly less than Logos, but that might be because I'm feeling the exact same vibes from Wiadi as the last game where she turned out to be scum. Town feel (apprehensive).
    Least: Cyricubed. I am still baffled by the Zaealix vote.
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    Give me a minute to get over myself and I'll probably move it back.

    This just really reads to me like Rosen protecting Lies.
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    Yeah he kinda is and he's probably correct to do so. Like I genuinely think 99 is self resolving at this point and just treating the BG claim as real is perfectly acceptable for the moment. I don't see the problem.

    Idk I'd rather like deep dive Logos who i think just has weird vibes or do literally anything else that isn't just doing d1 relitigation.
     
    Like if 99L is scum then he just lies about the prot anyways if he's town then keeping his targeting to himself is better for info control it literally does not matter.
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    And yeah, if lies names a weird target, I'm going to be suspicious that they're lying about their role and just afraid to be caught out by investigatives. But that's because it's suspicious.
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    Oh, here's a fun one. Who would count as a weird target?

    Feel free to account for that line between weird target and a target that a scum would plausibly think they could get away with claiming.
     
    Shalmoa said:
    I mean TBQH I'm not really interested in the thought process of outside-context!YP, it's just another layer of obfuscation before I can construct a mental model of actual-in-the-game-player!YP.
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    I think that's the disconnect. I'm trying to empathize with you (collective) to see things from your perspective so that my logical arguments aren't just trash that is easily circumvented by 'what if you're scum tho'?
     
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