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Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%

  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
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End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
  • Threadmarks
    • The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



    The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



    The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

    And a message is left upon the table to read.

    Reevals needed on Walker's flip
    Everyone needs progressions now IMO
    Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
    Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
    Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
    Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
    Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
    Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
    Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP
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    And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

    End of Day is at
     
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  • Threadmarks
    • Shalmoa said:
    So? Flow is more natural if you let Walker bring it up and then just let Walker handle it. Do you think I don't technically understand this? What I'm annoyed by is how bad of a spot in the flow it came in, and how little it did to do anything but create more snarls.

    You think I'm not aware of that? It's what I mean when I say it doesn't matter if it's actually true or not.
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    The only reason I elaborated is because to me, It's obvious that he wanted to make an entrance after he caught up on the thread, and he made his entrance by talking about something related to the most notable thing his sub did; weird? Maybe. But understandable.

    But again, there's no point in speculating, I just pinged Walker to elaborate if my observations are true or not
     
    Cyricubed said:
    @Logos give me your thoughts on how D2 has progressed so far. Is anything standing out?
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    Holidays are still causing activity disruption, which makes analysis harder.

    The entire argument about rule 1 shouldn't have happened. I'm still not sure how much of that argument I should even be reading, not that I've seen anything indicative out of it.

    I find myself liking the push on Hugh, which is weird because I basically come pre-pocketed in that regard. I'm inclined to put this down to holiday disruption, but I am officially raising an eyebrow in that direction at this point.

    99L, I'm inclined to think should have been pressured into claiming an action, as I'm still not sure I follow the reasoning not to. It would open up space for things like a watcher seeing them visit someone they didn't claim to visit.

    The recent discussion around Walker and potentially proving the power claim... yeah, probably should be happening now. I'm not sure I like how it's running, since the proposal seems to be more inclined towards proving one's own slot rather than proposing a way to use the claimed power to help town, which stands out to me. But the discussion itself is well timed for an otherwise relatively slow period and at a decent distance from EoD. I'll come back to this later and see how it ran, because right now I'm rather low on energy to social properly.

    Overall, I feel like we're having a second day one, with no clear tells from the flips and anyone with night information deciding that operational security is good actually rather than shouting about it.

    For now, @hugh_donnetono, as a number of people have pointed out, we don't actually have much out of you. Lots of posts, but I'm struggling to think of a single firm position. Could I please get a list of your top three town and top three scum reads?
     
    Absum said:
    Anyway @Wiadi I'd like opinions on Shalmoa, -Rosen and Nanimani. Also your best scumread rn to get an idea of where you're at because the YP summary post doesn't seem to really sus them that much in the end?
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    Right, okay, sorry, I'm finally back from both New Year celebrations and the aftermath thereof. Let's roll.

    Nani: good vibes, feel like we've been on the same wavelength on stuff & their thought processes make good sense to me; nothing supremely Townie in its own right but I feel like they're genuine which is a plus.
    -Rosen: feels pretty much like normal -Rosen play so far? Which is therefore NAI. Would have to take a closer look to see if anything stands out, which I may find time to do at some point but "reread one of the game's highest posters" isn't top of my priority list.
    Shalmoa: seems most ultimately culpable for Zaea's wagon D1 despite not having been on it in the end, which isn't a great look to me. Otherwise nothing jumping out at me from their posting and, again, "reread one of the game's highest posters" is something I'd prefer to avoid if possible. Though may be more necessary here given the Zaea thing.

    Strongest Scumread: yeah, you're right that it's not YP, I don't like their play but it doesn't ultimately seem sufficiently outside their Town range to fully Scumread them over it. I do think there's almost certainly at least one Scum lurking among the inactives but due to said inactivity I don't have a good sense of which one - know it's a bit hypocritical but would like to see them posting more. For the rest...maybe Shal TBH? Gonna go back for one more EoD1 reread and see if my bad vibes about how the Zaea wagon shook out hold up. Also probably influenced by having been less around for this Day and therefore not having my reads as updated for it as I'd prefer.

    Related: if anyone wants to point me at any particular recent events/interactions/etc. for an opinion then by all means go ahead. Or at whatever else. Also if I missed an earlier question from you please remind me.
     
    A Wise Hermit said:
    Like, my point is that I can see why Walker has a reason to bring it up; it was asked that Bean elaborate at the beginning, and she didn't really because of her self-endorsed headspace (which she left for). Walker feels pressure to bring it up now that he's caught up in the thread, and he did so

    It's really simple, but I suppose I can just ask Walker instead of doing this deduction game @Walker
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    If I hadn't brought it up, someone else would have, possibly at a significantly more inconvenient time for me. I'm unsure whether I agree with Bean's decision to reveal it basically immediately, but it certainly would have had to come out onto the board within a short timeframe to avoid the possibility of scum using it to back some other argument, unless every single vote was tailored to keep it irrelevant - which would be a terrible decision anyways.

    I can either acknowledge this issue now, have that discussion in a context where I can present a defense and let it be argued, or I can ignore it and hope no one ever brings it up again and look incredibly suspicious when everyone remembers it halfway through day five.
     
    Walker said:
    If I hadn't brought it up, someone else would have, possibly at a significantly more inconvenient time for me. I'm unsure whether I agree with Bean's decision to reveal it basically immediately, but it certainly would have had to come out onto the board within a short timeframe to avoid the possibility of scum using it to back some other argument, unless every single vote was tailored to keep it irrelevant - which would be a terrible decision anyways.

    I can either acknowledge this issue now, have that discussion in a context where I can present a defense and let it be argued, or I can ignore it and hope no one ever brings it up again and look incredibly suspicious when everyone remembers it halfway through day five.
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    I disagree with the accuracy of this assessment, but I see where you're coming from. Not fond of townies playing to be overly cautious of appearance though.

    Always more of a fan of letting those arguments come out specifically to see who does try to take advantage of them myself. Especially with the general town-cred Bean's slot was sitting on anyways.
     
    Walker said:
    If I hadn't brought it up, someone else would have, possibly at a significantly more inconvenient time for me. I'm unsure whether I agree with Bean's decision to reveal it basically immediately, but it certainly would have had to come out onto the board within a short timeframe to avoid the possibility of scum using it to back some other argument, unless every single vote was tailored to keep it irrelevant - which would be a terrible decision anyways.

    I can either acknowledge this issue now, have that discussion in a context where I can present a defense and let it be argued, or I can ignore it and hope no one ever brings it up again and look incredibly suspicious when everyone remembers it halfway through day five.
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    I feel like the concern regarding this statement is less "Omg he's claiming double vote" and more "Why did he say he wanted to prove it?"

    If you started with this first while saying "So about Bean's double-vote..." I feel like everyone would've been a little less pointed at you, but I'm picking up what you're putting down and why you wanted to say it
     
    Walker please stop digging yourself into a hole. I was town reading Bean and you're going to make me have to reassess that, bleh.
     
    Also for the record I completely agree that how Walker came into this conversation was suspicious as hell. We do not want the DV throwing around their power while advertising it. It basically screams "hi, let me, scum, be the one to decide which wagon wins! I promise it won't hurt town!"
     
    Cyricubed said:
    @RoachTV @dinomannitro6 can you both give me a reads list and then when you've completed those review your top two scum reads more in depth view.
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    heres the first half, need to go for a bit so will finish rereading the other players when I return.

    Cyricubed, confident town
    -Rosen, town-y
    Absum, prob town
    Logos, posts are... fine. nothing too standout
    hugh_donnetono, not entirely memes as some have said, but still not that much. probably will think sus via PoE
    Nanimani, fine posting. town lean
    Nopeguy, ok posts. Seems like he doesnt have a team chat to help coach his posts, so prob not maf.
    A Bunch Of Atoms, fellow low poster, not much to go off of
    Shalmoa, dont think mafia, no post felt very sus. but tbh I skimmed most of them so lower confidence on that

    Byzantine
    NinetyNineLies
    Young Pyromancer
    Ori
    A Wise Hermit
    Wiadi
    Variable
    @Clown Bean @Walker
     
    Okay, so, reviewing and going over what I meant re: bad vibes from the Shal/Zaea stuff.
    Shalmoa said:
    This is a take, and for as much as it feels like that whole bulletin-board-covered-in-evidence-and-strings meme to me, it's not really a bad take. I just don't see it. But noted.
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    Shalmoa said:
    Hrm. Actually, you know what?

    [x] Vote Zaealix
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    Shal vote Zaea in response to an articulated stance but without immediate justification...
    Zaealix said:
    Well then, that's not suspiciously without reasoning at all.
    [X] Vote Shalmoa
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    ...predictably provoking a backlash because (1) that's kinda weird and (2) Zaea...
    Shalmoa said:
    I mean, it is suspiciously without reasoning, isn't it?

    Yet, yet, yet, your first response is to OMGUS it?

    Interesting.
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    Shalmoa said:
    "oh my god you suck"

    Voting someone specifically because they're sussing you.

    And I don't care if your reads are right or not on D1, TBQH. Statistically, most of us are wrong. Need to get to D2 to even try to uncover the truth.

    My issue is this: You believe you have some kind of case between -Rosen/Absum, and you even have a pretty good sounding reasoning, from your point of view, to sus -Rosen in general.

    Yet, I do something that is so suspiciously suspicious that I think one has to wonder about exactly why I might do it intentionally, and then you turn around and completely forget your existing suspicions to tunnel me instead?

    I mean, I think I'll just leave that, and my vote, there for a little bit.
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    ...and then uses this as evidence to sus Zaea in what frankly feels like a straight-up trap. And like, not the good kind where it only catches actual Scum.
    Shalmoa said:
    [x] Vote hugh_donnetono

    @Zaealix: You're not off the hook for D2, push your own scum reads already.
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    Shal then pivots to voting hugh while continuing to provoke...
    Shalmoa said:
    Emphasis and emphasis mine.

    ...Nictis has exe'd you over this exact kind of argument before, y'know!
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    Shalmoa said:
    @Zaealix: Like to be clear the only reason I even pushed on you in the first place is because you said something that sounded actually really reasonable about why you would sus -Rosen, but now you're actively refusing to actually push -Rosen.

    Yes, pushing -Rosen is probably hopeless at this point in time.

    That doesn't make it a worthless endeavor.

    But that active refusal to do that and instead to play entirely "safe" votes (countervoting me wasn't really safe btw, but the 99L vote is like super explicitly boringly safe)...

    Not town-positive.

    Could still be townie, misguided townie, but not playing for town to win.

    Last time I saw this sort of thing that made me feel like you have a conviction that the thread is going to fall apart around you was last game, where you pretty much imploded as Firnbot.
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    Shalmoa said:
    Zaea is being sus and noncommital, 99L is being sus, YP is sorta sus, and me and -Rosen are kinda tossing up the idea of "just lol a hugh-wagon into existence and see what happens" to see if anything happens, because a Zaea/99L EoD sounds awful to me and me and -Rosen have exactly opposing opinions on who of Zaea/99L is more sus.
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    Shalmoa said:
    FWIW I don't really believe in voting out YP today? I mean, I haven't really reviewed but most of YP's stuff is IMO nowhere near as damning as Zaea's stuff?
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    ...and shade Zaea throughout. This feels like it sets up Zaea to remain in conversation as a potential D1 target despite for a while lacking any serious wagon...
    Nictis said:
    Adhoc vote count started by Nictis on Dec 28, 2023 at 9:40 PM, finished with 619 posts and 21 votes.
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    With Dino likely not catching up before Day End hits, I'm switching here to help keep other options viable.

    [x] Vote Zaealix

    @Ori Give me a quick rundown on why not Zaealix? My general read on them is null.
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    ...which is then paid off by Nictis eventually picking up Zaea as a default-acceptable wagon despite having an overall null read. This AFAICT was the proximate cause of the eventual Zaea swing at EoD.

    I may be constructing an overly neat narrative here in my continuing efforts to make sense of why the fuck that all happened, but it really does seem like deniably dunking Zaea into the "okay to vote" zone and then leaving him there for someone else to formally take responsibility for the elimination.

    The main fly in the ointment is, of course, why it'd be worth the effort to deliberately set up Zaea to take the fall instead of the other LHF in contention - especially through such an uncontrolled method that it wouldn't really serve to reliably save a specific other person. So maybe I am just tinfoiling? IDK. Sorry to be noncommittal here, it just feels like the pieces are almost fitting together but not quite and that might mean I'm just missing one or it might mean they're not even all from the same puzzle. Bleh.

    Anyway, in more recent news:
    A Wise Hermit said:
    (eventually leading to her leaving the game)
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    A Wise Hermit said:
    (which she left for)
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    Generally speaking discussing reasons for a player leaving the game is a bit angle-shooty IMO; relatively innocuous the way you're doing it here, but still feels like bad form.
    Walker said:
    unless every single vote was tailored to keep it irrelevant - which would be a terrible decision anyways.
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    Why?
     
    Wiadi said:
    The main fly in the ointment is, of course, why it'd be worth the effort to deliberately set up Zaea to take the fall instead of the other LHF in contention - especially through such an uncontrolled method that it wouldn't really serve to reliably save a specific other person. So maybe I am just tinfoiling? IDK. Sorry to be noncommittal here, it just feels like the pieces are almost fitting together but not quite and that might mean I'm just missing one or it might mean they're not even all from the same puzzle. Bleh.
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    As a townie, I can promise that it is actually made of tinfoil. 💙

    Too many moving pieces for a plan where the alternative at the time was, pretty sure, let 99L take the heat until it swings somewhere that, in scum!Shal world, would probably be equally irrelevant?
     
    Wiadi said:
    Okay, so, reviewing and going over what I meant re: bad vibes from the Shal/Zaea stuff.


    Shal vote Zaea in response to an articulated stance but without immediate justification...

    ...predictably provoking a backlash because (1) that's kinda weird and (2) Zaea...


    ...and then uses this as evidence to sus Zaea in what frankly feels like a straight-up trap. And like, not the good kind where it only catches actual Scum.

    Shal then pivots to voting hugh while continuing to provoke...




    ...and shade Zaea throughout. This feels like it sets up Zaea to remain in conversation as a potential D1 target despite for a while lacking any serious wagon...

    ...which is then paid off by Nictis eventually picking up Zaea as a default-acceptable wagon despite having an overall null read. This AFAICT was the proximate cause of the eventual Zaea swing at EoD.

    I may be constructing an overly neat narrative here in my continuing efforts to make sense of why the fuck that all happened, but it really does seem like deniably dunking Zaea into the "okay to vote" zone and then leaving him there for someone else to formally take responsibility for the elimination.

    The main fly in the ointment is, of course, why it'd be worth the effort to deliberately set up Zaea to take the fall instead of the other LHF in contention - especially through such an uncontrolled method that it wouldn't really serve to reliably save a specific other person. So maybe I am just tinfoiling? IDK. Sorry to be noncommittal here, it just feels like the pieces are almost fitting together but not quite and that might mean I'm just missing one or it might mean they're not even all from the same puzzle. Bleh.
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    I mean, the overall swinging around the nontalky people does feel like someone among them is someone that people wanna protect. Dino had a 6 to like...3 lead at one point before Nictis started the Zaea vote? If I were to be a good pocketed Nani, I could say that setting up pushes to hugh or Zaea just spreads the net wide so people have a lot of non-dino options to choose from for maximum reduction of that wagon.
     
    Byzantine, theyre alright, no strong feelings
    NinetyNineLies, I believe their claim, so town
    Young Pyromancer, honestly I have a hard time getting a read on him. I think town?
    Ori, good posts. on d2 especially. town
    A Wise Hermit, has had decently townie posts
    Wiadi, good posts good analasis. townie
    Variable, not a lot to go off of, still ???
    Clown Bean Walker, probably town, we'll see how the vibes develop after the sub

    inconclusive results; scum probably in the space of Hugh, Atoms, Byz, Variable. possibly Shalmoa or YP
     
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    Question of Day 2 Extension
  • Informational
    • Okay, everyone. Apologies for once again another in-thread announcement during the course of the day, but considering how New Years has been over for the current day, I put a poll up top that'll run through to 12PM noon tomorrow if people would like to extend the day by another twenty-four hours to end on . This would be the only time that an extension will happen as I don't imagine any other holidays to interfere with the game.
     
  • Informational
    • Nanimani said:
    It hits all the conspiracy spots in my brain and also comes from Wiadi, so after last game, I am contractually obligated to avoid actually giving it a large position of importance/likelihood in my head.
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    This is a shady post. Piggybacks off the conspiratorial part already brought up by Shalmoa (and Wiadi herself, even), and tacks on a "Wiadi was scum last game soooo" on top of it?

    I'm not a fan of the idea based on what Wiadi pulled myself (mostly because I know how I have reacted to responses to pushes like that in the past, though I won't speak for Shal outright on that front), but what you're saying here feels much more akin to "Wiadi is not to be trusted" than "I think Wiadi's ideas are incorrect" the way I'm reading it.

    [x] Vote Nanimani

    With that in mind, I do want to reread Wiadi because of this, now that there is a point of distinction between her and other players here. Checking for progressions mostly but overall I think garnering a read on her is a lot more possible now. Noting to myself as a "when I'm out of bed" thing to do.
     
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