- Location
- Europe
See the situation in this way: if Lin is going to manage to do it, we may be able to solve our problems without needing the Emperor "help".
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The Long Night Part One: Embers in the Dusk: A Planetary Governor Quest (43k) Complete Sequel Up
- Thread starter Durin
- Start date
See the situation in this way: if Lin is going to manage to do it, we may be able to solve our problems without needing the Emperor "help".
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
That is not how maths works. To put it in another way:
Russian Roulette, 1/6 chance you blow out your brains.
You are given a reward of 100 dollars if you point the gun at your head and press the button.
There is a 5/6 chance of getting the payout 100 and 1/6 of blowing you brains out.
Playing this game gets you net 1/6 Dead yous and 5/6 100 dollar bills. In other words are you worth less than 500? If you are worth more you would not play.
And I'll note that "at best" matching means it's possible that they don't match up to the risks. It just means we won't get better than what we're risking.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
This is disingenuous.
He did not say that Risks at best match Rewards, he said Rewards at best match Risks.
- Location
- Europe
The problem is that our situation may be more of a "play the russian roulette now for these money, but if you don't you will never, no matter what you do, ever get a cent again".
- Location
- Berkeley
While that is true from the perspective of if we were to take the option now, that does not mean we should not consider actions to improve the risk-reward ratio in our planmaking perspective. Because in order for the rewards to even be comparable to the current risk said reward must be extremely high, to the point where the marginal benefits from increasing our odds of getting it far outweigh the expected gain from our other actions.
Nothing particularly extreme—just doing things like asking the Eldar for info on their gods (in part to increase the odds of Lin succeeding in critting on investigating them) and prioritizing Lin's investigative actions to focus on things likely to increase his ability to handle the Sea over their immediate benefit (such as doing a more complete investigation on the Eldar Gods rather than looking into curses or the Sanguinar).
Doomed Wombat
Let's go Darling!
- Location
- Dancing on wires!
Aye and its the others I wanna know.
More deets on the other ones.
Ah well.
I don't like emps, but don't try appealing to that dislike to influence my moves.
Even then its not really without emp help since Lin is Emp's saint
Look I know I excused myself from the convo, but...at the end of the day we're not going to decide on it now.
Diplo put towards gathering assets to help Lin, and trying to buff his traits, then when we're further along vault done and dusted etc. then we can make a decision.
As it stands it feels like Lin's over taking the thread when there are other things to plan out.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
The situation is not like that at all. Unless you mean to say that we will Bad End without taking the option? For most people in real life being cut off from society like that is basically a death sentence.
- Location
- Spain
The thing is that the reward here is not 100 dollars, it is something so valuable that could potentially change the galaxy.
Imagine that instead of the 100 dollars you could get the cure for cancer, or the secret of Cold Fusion reactors.
In that case, there are quite a few people who will take the chances of blowing their brains up, even against worse odds than 1/6.
And Is what you say was true, the Market of Futures and many other economic resources with high risk and potential immense rewards would not exist IRL.
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- Location
- Africa
guys more than half of our best troops are off on campaign for an undefined period of time ,if an incursion as bad as Durin said happens we get the BAD END and it would be really idiotic to risk a crit fail like that since we know for a fact we can not deal with the consequences .
but if we still had our all our elite troops on plant then we might be able to deal with the consequences if we crit fail , but we dont so we shouldnt do Primordial Sea
but if we still had our all our elite troops on plant then we might be able to deal with the consequences if we crit fail , but we dont so we shouldnt do Primordial Sea
Doomed Wombat
Let's go Darling!
- Location
- Dancing on wires!
Well there's the fundamental issue.
Do we consider the risks of investigating something described as an "end boss" gaining info on it and apparently gaining substantial bonuses in the here and now in the first third of the game...but also have the chance of killing ourselves.
While the reward may at best match the risk, problem is the reward is still super shiny despite this.
Then again as Durin also said he didn't expect Lin to know about it at this stage, so there's a good argument for cutting our luck here.
I can't decide and I hate this.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
When Durin made his warning, he would definitely have expected us to take those Diplo actions and so on, so those bonuses would be already considered in his assessment of risk and reward. Perhaps the potential Paragon Learning wouldn't be considered, but that's about that.
That is because there are humans who underestimate risks and overestimate rewards.
The Russian Roulette holds true if you replace you with 'Bad End' and the reward as 'Explicitly not greater than Bad End'/Odds of Winning
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- Location
- Spain
Yes, and this is a game I play for fun and would rather risk everything on a single roll dice than be stuck with the safe and boring option.
- Location
- Europe
Not taking options to improve our chances of surviving in the galaxy it is certainly going to bring us to a Bad End. And yes, not going to know anything about the final boss before it appears is going to bring us to a Bad End. And even if we are going to find other ways to know him in the future, this doesn't mean that these chances will be less dangerous that those we have right now. Especially because they are so high right now.
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- Location
- Spain
Then, why the fuck take any risks? If the Reward-Risk is going to be equal or less than zero, Why help the Eldar by risking Ridcully? Or making the Tech trade despite the risk of being discovered? Hell why chose Avernus as our planet instead of Alfheim?
Do you imagine how boring the quest would be if we always went for the safe path?
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
Because in those cases the rewards are greater than the risks?
Risks of losing Ridcully vs Getting Critical Isha details (or from a different PoV getting Eldar favors)
Risks of being Discovered vs Tech uplift
Risks of losing a billion humans in the Imperium vs Avernus
Doomed Wombat
Let's go Darling!
- Location
- Dancing on wires!
Given what we knew coming in I'd say this one is one where we did just took a risk.
Rids did succeed beyond anyone's wildest dreams and all, we expected a major favour, maybe an exalted tops.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
It is not about always taking the Safe Path or always YOLOing. It is about taking options which balance out benefits and costs.
- Location
- Europe
Sorry for before.
However, I want to add that it is surprisingly common in fiction to discover who is the final boss at 1/3rd of the story.
Doomed Wombat
Let's go Darling!
- Location
- Dancing on wires!
Given the scale of embers in this case it seems it was not intended.
However, there is an argument that since we know of the final boss the 1/3rd rule has been satiated and pushing for more would just be greedy.
After all tis not impossible someone after Lin will come along early and we can do the action again with a greater surety.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
And in that case losing Ridcully would have sucked but was ultimately manageable. The Minor Favor would still be enough to take care of Turoq.
- Location
- Spain
I can see your point, but tell me is there any action like 1/10 as important than Lin´s ones?
Because I don´t see any.
In games, I ALWAYS pick the High Risk High Reward options, and I am doing that right now.
Ans I would suggest you to stop fear Mongering at least until the QM confirm that the chances of succes are 30% or 50%
Tell me how? Lin is the LAST Saint of the Emperor, the Emps is not going to be able to bless someone like him in 10 millennia.
- Location
- madison
ok, so we have somewhere between a 59% and 30% chance of success, with maybe another 10% or so from the eldar and Avernus. if the odds are 59 and we get a +10 or more, then i'd be willing to risk it. we know that trying and failing would at best cost us lin, and quite possible be on the order of multiple cities going boom or multiple heroes falling.
i'm not willing to risk the world on something with worse odds than a coin flip.
i'm not willing to risk the world on something with worse odds than a coin flip.
Shard
One and Many
- Location
- Malaysia
Holy shit the DM has said it is Bad End territory and you are saying I am fear mongering? And he has said that Rewards are less than or equal to Risks??
- Location
- Europe
You need to take in consideration the difference in probability between the two action before doing the balance of costs and benefits.
And, unfortunally, it is less than us rolling a 100 on this roll just to reach this point.