You know guys I can see our gods having more influence here as time goes by when our people become more populated and the more runes we finish
The Dawi in Arda (Hiatus)
- Thread starter Warkeymon
- Start date
- Crossover
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Why?
We don't know anything about the greater metaphysics going on right now. Why exactly the form takes is up in the air/dependent on the GMs vision.
Meh it's more like they show more things on future things like the fate one or nat 100s on their influence
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I have seriously had thoughts of relying on the Rune of Fate, the rangers, and to an unknown the extent the Eagles for forewarning and letting them come to us. We can't build up our numbers as fast as we can build better defenses, Runecraft is slower. Let them break themselves against us, then cull the remainder
How would we lure them into such an engagement? Orcs can be quite cowardly if they don't feel they have the advantage.
If we can double our population every 20 years and we start with 3500 dawi we could hit 100k in a century. 4 children per household over 20 years doesn't seem completely bonkers. It might be worth being super defensive and only being support for surrounding groups for a century to be able to field a much stronger force. If we had 50k dwarves that'd definitely be enough to establish another stronghold.
Edit: A lot of armies in the setting hang out at around 10,000 so being able to throw 3000 well equipped dawi at various conflicts would have a huge impact on battles.
Edit: A lot of armies in the setting hang out at around 10,000 so being able to throw 3000 well equipped dawi at various conflicts would have a huge impact on battles.
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't really know. But unlike the goblins of the Misty Mountains they haven't experienced us as personally, haven't tested our defenses, and if they are working with the trolls they might feel they have the muscle.
Either way, if we get forewarning my response will be to fort up, not ride out (metaphorically speaking).
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Unfortunately, it will be a lot slower. From the information we received previously we started with about 3700 Dawi, and we get 100 new Dawi per clan and generation (20 years) and we started with 6 clans. So we will double our current population in 100 (80 since we are almost 20 years in) years if I am not mistaken. Kind of a bummer to have such a slow rate of population growth but it makes sense considering we are Dawi.
Edit: In a 1000 years we should have almost 400 000 Dawi though xD if no one dies that is
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- Location
- USA
It's why 2/3rds of my omakes are pop growth related. Hoping to encourage growth.
But the number of clans we have in our hold will also grow.
Our rate of growth should increase as the number clans we have increases.
Its likely we will have 3 or 4 more clans than what we started with soon. Once they come of age they will also add to the population.
But if your calculations are correct, that does seem a tad slow even for Dawi.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Yeah, I calculated it exponentially so the more Dawi we have the more babies we will make each year. Doubling in 100 years is with exponential growth.
600 Dawi in the first generation after 20 years with a starting population of 3700 works out to a growth rate of about 0,7% per year, which would give us roughly 7400 Dawi after 100 years.
The calculations are not perfect since we are not considering death rates or that our population grows in batches of 20 years so to say. We don't get new Dawi each year which makes it harder to calculate.
Edit: It's the same as a compound interest calculation. Obviously, population growth IRL is much more complex than that but I don't really know how to do that.
Here is a table of how our population numbers could look, it works out to a rough doubling of our population every 100 years:
Years | Dawi Population |
|---|---|
100 | 7 433 |
200 | 14 931 |
300 | 29 995 |
400 | 60 255 |
500 | 121 042 |
600 | 243 155 |
700 | 488 462 |
800 | 981 247 |
900 | 1 971 175 |
1 000 | 3 959 791 |
1 100 | 7 954 618 |
1 200 | 15 979 618 |
1 300 | 32 100 622 |
1 400 | 64 485 267 |
1 500 | 129 541 092 |
1 600 | 260 228 351 |
1 700 | 522 759 177 |
1 800 | 1 050 143 674 |
1 900 | 2 109 578 914 |
2 000 | 4 237 823 172 |
So these are the same calculations as compound interest. We have an initial population but once we start haveing babies we have more Dawi making more babies, this means that our population doesn't increase linearly like for example 600 Dawi per 20 years, instead it increases exponentially,
To calculate our increase in % I used this formula:
The only thing we are doing here is calculating the percentage increase over time. This gives us a growth rate of 0,7%. Looking at real world examples today population growth seems to be between 1% - 2% per year so considering Dawi are supposed to have slow population growth it's actually a pretty reasonable growth rate.
To then calculate the pop growth after x years I used this:
After that I use excel to calculate the total population for a number of years.
To calculate our increase in % I used this formula:
LaTeX:
\[G={{(FV-IV)}/IV*100\over t}\]
- Where G is the percent growth
- FV is the final value
- IV is the initial value
- t is the years of growth
- FV = 4 300
- IV = 3 700
- t = 20
LaTeX:
\[G={{(4 300-3 700)}/3 700*100\over 20}=0,7%\]
To then calculate the pop growth after x years I used this:
LaTeX:
\[x(t) = {x0 × (1 + r)^t}\]
- Where x(t) is the final population after time t
- x0 is the initial population
- r is the rate of growth
- and t is the total time (number of years)
LaTeX:
\[x(t) = {3 700 × (1 + 0,007)^t}\]
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Then its likely slower, but dam that is slow.
You wonder how in the Dawi managed to expand from a single hold in Karak Zorn into a intercontinental empire with millions upon millions of inhabitants in just 3500 years.
Because the Dawi started expansion in the year -5000
And the War of Vengeance and the fall of the Golden age occurred in the year -1500.
That is a mere 3500 years to expand into an Empire with countless cities and holds, the construction of the Underway, cities with populations in the hundreds of thousands even the millions.
And that is with wars such as the war against Chaos and the War of Vengeance which inflicted huge casualties.
Actually on second thought, that is quite astounding growth.
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
I added a table to show how our growth would look in my previous post. 3 500 years is a long time so the population would reach other limits than birthrate pretty quickly. If they had no deaths and would continue to grow for 3 500 years total Dawi population would be 148 billion.
Looking at it it's honestly a pretty reasonable growth rate, we just start from such a low level that it takes a long time until the growth rate really starts to pop off.
Agreed, the dwarves would have to be fine with starting to have children from age 20 and the lack of time to fully train replacements would be very disruptive. BUT we've shown it is possible to birth 3 dawi from 2 in a 20 year period so if their society shifted and it became as foundational as keeping grudges or something then it doesn't seem completely nuts to have like 10% growth. (3 women having 11 total children from an intial pop of 10 dawi).
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Agreed, I also think it makes sense from a Quest perspective to allow us to increase it so that we don't have to wait for 3000 years xD
Ok that graph makes things look alot less grim, great visualization!
Are y'all keeping in mind the lopsided gender ratio amongst warhammer dwarves (only about two-to-three women among every ten dwarves born) or are we discarding that piece of canon?
I wouldn't honestly miss it if we did discard it, but it is important for the maths of population growth and demographics.
I wouldn't honestly miss it if we did discard it, but it is important for the maths of population growth and demographics.
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't think it matters, if we gained 600 dawi from our starting population of 3700 that increase should already take the lopsided ratio into account. Since we calculate our growth rate from the increase of actual dawi rather than from info like "every dawi kvinn has 1 child every 20 years" we should be ok.
Honestly that's very fair. I just get stuck on details sometimes ^..^
I do still want to write an omake about a woman dorf doing some brewing or sommat.
- Location
- USA
Do it. Straight up. Make the new bugmans xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ale for sale.
Did we complete a Brewery? I cannot remember at all.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Hmmm. I'm again working over the deets of the omake, and I think I'm sticking too much. Maybe just go with a longplait woman monitoring the vats, her eldest kid in tow as an apprentice.
Thank you, by the by!