Remove ads

[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

Reader mode
QTesseract said:
Honestly, the jackdaw plan just plain doesn't work either. Let's say you do, somehow, get everyone to agree to do this, even with the two jackdaws and probably the Magpie (since the jackdaws remaining in the game helps the magpie win) arguing against it, plus everyone who doesn't like the plan from an aesthetics perspective, or from a feasibility perspective.

Let's also say that we have no lurkers who refrain from voting, no crows who defect from the plan to lynch someone they think is a magpie, and the ravens go along with it; ie, everything goes perfectly. It goes something like this:

Day one random lynch, probably a crow. We identify a jackdaw, but we identify whichever of them judges themselves to be the less valuable player, since even if they're lower on the pecking order they can ensure they're the one outed and not their partner by jumping on a lynch with someone on it. Day 2 we lynch a jackdaw, day 3 a crow, day 4 a jackdaw... and then we go into day 5 down 2 crows and with 4 days wasted, and with the ravens intact. Since there's no day tell in this plan as to whether or not someone is a Raven. That's not a position anyone but the ravens want to be in.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
That's why it's probably a first-turn only deal. The main reason why it's viable first turn is because on night 1 we have basically no info to work off of anyway, so we might as well make sure we get at least something from it. We also have a slightly better chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie first night if Jackdaws control things than if we just random it. Now from night 2 onwards we have more information to work with (voting patterns, shiny transfers, etc), so it's probably not worth it then, but for night 1? It's honestly better than random voting.

Also, according to the OP internal pecking orders are unknown so Jackdaws can't try to arrange things so their less valuable player is revealed.
 
I don't have a damn clue what's going on but I know the game mechanics so that's a plus I guess?

Won't really be around until tomorrow though, since I'm spending today unpacking from move-out.
 
NSMS said:
That's why it's probably a first-turn only deal. The main reason why it's viable first turn is because on night 1 we have basically no info to work off of anyway, so we might as well make sure we get at least something from it. We also have a slightly better chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie first night if Jackdaws control things than if we just random it. Now from night 2 onwards we have more information to work with (voting patterns, shiny transfers, etc), so it's probably not worth it then, but for night 1? It's honestly better than random voting.

Also, according to the OP internal pecking orders are unknown so Jackdaws can't try to arrange things so their less valuable player is revealed.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Their less valuable player can just jump on another lynch, as 4 votes beats 3. If they were higher on the pecking order, it's wasted effort but doesn't hurt them. If they were lower on the pecking order, it preserves anonymity.
 
NSMS said:
That's why it's probably a first-turn only deal. The main reason why it's viable first turn is because on night 1 we have basically no info to work off of anyway, so we might as well make sure we get at least something from it. We also have a slightly better chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie first night if Jackdaws control things than if we just random it. Now from night 2 onwards we have more information to work with (voting patterns, shiny transfers, etc), so it's probably not worth it then, but for night 1? It's honestly better than random voting.

Also, according to the OP internal pecking orders are unknown so Jackdaws can't try to arrange things so their less valuable player is revealed.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
No, QT is correct. If they want to hide the more valuable player the less valuable can stack a vote at the last second.

There's no counterplay to that move possible.

Now they could screw it up, but. That is an option for them.
 
-Rosen said:
I don't have a damn clue what's going on but I know the game mechanics so that's a plus I guess?

Won't really be around until tomorrow though, since I'm spending today unpacking from move-out.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Short version is: we're discussing a plan that will reveal at least one Jackdaw if everybody votes. If everybody votes for a different player, so everybody has one vote aimed at them, the lynch rules means that the person who dies has to have been voted for by a Jackdaw.
QTesseract said:
Their less valuable player can just jump on another lynch, as 4 votes beats 3. If they were higher on the pecking order, it's wasted effort but doesn't hurt them. If they were lower on the pecking order, it preserves anonymity.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Terrabrand said:
No, QT is correct. If they want to hide the more valuable player the less valuable can stack a vote at the last second.

There's no counterplay to that move possible.

Now they could screw it up, but. That is an option for them.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Ah, gotcha. Though unless one of them has additional powers I'm not sure how they'd define 'less valuable'. Either way, it's a Jackdaw ID'd and a lynch with a higher-than-otherwise chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie, so it's a net gain.
 
NSMS said:
Ah, gotcha. Though unless one of them has additional powers I'm not sure how they'd define 'less valuable'. Either way, it's a Jackdaw ID'd and a lynch with a higher-than-otherwise chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie, so it's a net gain.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
More skilled, generally. Like, I might jump on that grenade were I hypothetically a jackdaw to save eg Broken Base or Pawn, though I don't think any of the players I trust to play better than me is in the game so if I did that I'd probably be trying to throw strong enemies under the bus by implication lol.
 
NSMS said:
Short version is: we're discussing a plan that will reveal at least one Jackdaw if everybody votes. If everybody votes for a different player, so everybody has one vote aimed at them, the lynch rules means that the person who dies has to have been voted for by a Jackdaw.


Ah, gotcha. Though unless one of them has additional powers I'm not sure how they'd define 'less valuable'. Either way, it's a Jackdaw ID'd and a lynch with a higher-than-otherwise chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie, so it's a net gain.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It'a a gain, not a net gain. We get positive results (-1 nontown), but at the cost of two days and making crows enemy #1 for the remaining jackdaw.
 
QTesseract said:
It'a a gain, not a net gain. We get positive results (-1 nontown), but at the cost of two days and making crows enemy #1 for the remaining jackdaw.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
My bad, mixing up my terminology there. Though I'm not sure why this would make us specifically any more of an enemy for the remaining Jackdaw (over simply 'any non-Jackdaw faction', I mean) than we would be already. Yes, it's a strategy that relies on all non-Jackdaw players working together, but that includes Magpies and Ravens to.
 
NSMS said:
My bad, mixing up my terminology there. Though I'm not sure why this would make us specifically any more of an enemy for the remaining Jackdaw (over simply 'any non-Jackdaw faction', I mean) than we would be already. Yes, it's a strategy that relies on all non-Jackdaw players working together, but that includes Magpies and Ravens to.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
You're trying to setup a situation where anyone who defects from the strategy is marked Not Town and a priority for the lynch. This technically requires multiple non town factions cooperate, but from them it is legitimately nothing personal to the jackdaws, since they are in fact non town and don't want to be lynched either. If it goes through, it's on the strength of Crows pushing it realistically with other factions consent optimal.

I kinda have to agree with QT that it gives the Jackdaw reason to be personally vengeful since we're basically plotting to use the first two days to fuck them in specific.

That's a sportsmanship issue in a way beyond my existing disinterest in it for not liking it as a way to play, to boot. I'm not gonna like. Hard oppose it,,since it happening probably would benefit my alignment, but I'm also not interested in backing it either.
 
I just think it is more fun to look at how people play than to try to set up mechanical traps. Especially since there are so many ways it could wrong and fails completely if anybody doesn't play along.
 
Terrabrand said:
You're trying to setup a situation where anyone who defects from the strategy is marked Not Town and a priority for the lynch. This technically requires multiple non town factions cooperate, but from them it is legitimately nothing personal to the jackdaws, since they are in fact non town and don't want to be lynched either. If it goes through, it's on the strength of Crows pushing it realistically with other factions consent optimal.

I kinda have to agree with QT that it gives the Jackdaw reason to be personally vengeful since we're basically plotting to use the first two days to fuck them in specific.

That's a sportsmanship issue in a way beyond my existing disinterest in it for not liking it as a way to play, to boot. I'm not gonna like. Hard oppose it,,since it happening probably would benefit my alignment, but I'm also not interested in backing it either.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yes, but why would they be vengeful against us specifically? It requires the consent and cooperation of all factions, not just Crows, for this plan to work. It's also no more or less personal for us than it is the Ravens or Magpie, as all non-Jackdaw factions benefit from Jackdaws being outed.
mesonoxian said:
I just think it is more fun to look at how people play than to try to set up mechanical traps. Especially since there are so many ways it could wrong and fails completely if anybody doesn't play along.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
If it's followed through on, unless there's some factor in play that we're not aware of it's a guaranteed reveal of a Jackdaw. If it's not followed through on, then the behaviour of everyone who argued for or against it is open to being analysed and put together with later information. For example: based on how they've been answering I'm currently suspicious that QTesseract may be a Jackdaw, as while any player might object to this plan on any number of grounds the ones with the most reason to oppose it are the Jackdaws. Similarly, I'm sure everyone is looking at me arguing for this plan and wondering whether it says anything about my faction alignment.
 
NSMS said:
Yes, but why would they be vengeful against us specifically? It requires the consent and cooperation of all factions, not just Crows, for this plan to work. It's also no more or less personal for us than it is the Ravens or Magpie, as all non-Jackdaw factions benefit from Jackdaws being outed.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It requires the cooperation but not the consent. For non crow factions.

Town has the majority. People need to pretend to be town. If you setup a situation where you MUST vote/behave x way or be on the chopping block next, then non town factions will go with that lest they die.

This is the equivalent of an armed band aiming guns at a group and when the people who aren't specifically being targeted run out of the way, giving a clearer shot at those being targeted, you declare them as having cooperated with the gunmen. It's not, technically, wrong, but they can only defect by throwing the game.

Town can just decide 'we don't specifically want to turbo fuck the jackdaws in specific over any other faction' which is my inclination, both because of sportsmanship and because I think the jackdaws are the smallest threat, and he most likely to resolve themselves as a problem if ignored for d1. I'd much rather resolve the ravens or magpie d1, but especially the ravens, because while I have said the magpie is the biggest threat,,four votes and four steals is an uncomfortably large power block that, if I could dictate which faction losew a member d1 and d1 alone, I'd want to clip their wings a bit to prevent a late game situation where they're mechanically impossible to beat.
 
InterstellarHobo said:
There are nine of the noble Crow! Perhaps you aren't that impressive on your own, but many crows together can do great things! If only you could tell who your friends are!
(No powers. The Crows win by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8)

Four Ravens make up the conspiracy! You Ravens have your own little hideyholes, where you can talk in secret!
(The Ravens have a QuickTopic, and know each other's identities. The Ravens win by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8)

The two Jackdaws! What loud birds! Surely, such a noisy bird is worth listening to?
(During day, Jackdaw votes count thrice. Each Jackdaw knows the other's identity. The Jackdaws win by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8)

The Magpie- you tricksy bird! So smart! Finding the Shiny Thing will be so easy! But nobody likes you, because you are a notorious sneakthief.
(The Magpie knows what everyone's role is, but has NO FRIENDS. The Magpie may make two theft attempts each Night.
The Magpie wins by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8, OR by having all three Shiny Things in their posession at any point.)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Okay so this theoretical jackdaw plan is nice and all but I just realized that (since there's only 3 shiny things) there's a possibility that nobody at all wins this game and I kinda want to go for that tbh
 
I'll be honest, starting off with going for a "nobody wins" scenario makes me suspect of 1K as being a group that would benefit from Crows not removing non-Crows, similar to a no-lynch voter on Day 1, though not as blatant.

[X] Peck 1KBestK
 
Our problem with the plan lies rather with the chance someone with a shiny thing gets lynched who is not a magpie. That means the jackdaw is exposed, will receive the shiny thing and nothing is there to stop the magpie from getting it yeah? At least that's our mechanical problem with it.

Fun wise: We don't like the idea of exploiting the vote system like that. It very much locks down the conversation and makes things dull and uninteresting...as well as being a big middle finger to the jackdaws. We propose we continue onwards like normal.
 
Hm. I can see the potential value in a plan to out a Jackdaw, but frankly I wish it had been raised later in the day, as it has rather centralized the conversation. If all we talk about D1 is the Jackdaw plan then the Ravens and Magpie can very easily avoid giving any potential tells for their alignments. I'm somewhat suspicious of NSMS's motives in raising the point this early, honestly. At the same time, I doubt we'll be able to have much other discussion now in any case, so...not sure how best to proceed.
 
So re the Jackdaw plan: While it could work, I don't really like it. In general killing a player off the bat via mechanics somewhat sucks. Normally you get lynched for your own mistakes or shortcomings, so in general it's your fault. If you just get lynched for mechanics, which you can't change, it takes away the incentive to play the game. Tbh, it rather borders on a design flaw. And like other people already said, it subjectively pits town versus the remaining Jackdaw while the Jackdaws are the most pro town faction.

IMO we should prioritize hunting the magpie. While it's true that the ravens are likely a large bloc in the end, the Magpie's the only one that can end the game prior to D8. Every day they live, they are a dangerous threat to end the game, especially early on if my shiny distribution assumption is correct. We should probably try to minimize the chances for them to gain as much shinies as possible. So much so that I'd advise the Jackdaws to vote for the same person at least early on.
 
Cyricubed said:
Our problem with the plan lies rather with the chance someone with a shiny thing gets lynched who is not a magpie. That means the jackdaw is exposed, will receive the shiny thing and nothing is there to stop the magpie from getting it yeah? At least that's our mechanical problem with it.

Fun wise: We don't like the idea of exploiting the vote system like that. It very much locks down the conversation and makes things dull and uninteresting...as well as being a big middle finger to the jackdaws. We propose we continue onwards like normal.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Thaaaat's… a really good point. Regardless of how many shiny things the magpie has at the start, you're practically guaranteeing it gains at least one.

In light of that... I'm gonna go for, sadly, d1 activity pushing.

@ComiTurtle you have 2 posts, at the very start, neither is real content. We have 14-15~ hours left, give or take, I'm not up to figuring out exactly, get posting friend bird.

@Shadell you have no vote out and no real content, and one post.

@UnderlingMaster ditto.

@Tykan you've also got one post, and no vote. Some content, at least, but shape up.

@Wiadi same as Tykan.

@1KBestK you've got about three posts and no real vote and little content.

The eagle eyed will notice that's over 1/3rd of all players. I might be overlooking another low poster. Barring something exceptional happening, my vote is going somewhere in this inactivity block for the rest of d1, because holy shit we can't as town let that huge count of players do nothing.

[X] Peck Shadell

Coinflip toss, metaphorically, between Shadell and Underling Master for most vote worthy on activity basis atm.

(this is also a great example of the coordination problem because we have a lot of people not voting and not posting we'd have no idea if the final lynch was jackdaw dictated or not.)
 
Terrabrand said:
Thaaaat's… a really good point. Regardless of how many shiny things the magpie has at the start, you're practically guaranteeing it gains at least one.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
That does depend on the Jackdaws actually having or gaining a shiny thing, which isn't guaranteed. It is a genuine risk, however, one which I even brought up earlier:
NSMS said:
So long as they don't end up in the possession of the Magpie, a faction gaining a shiny thing isn't a huge problem early game. Though...

Hmm.

Okay, potential flaw with the 'out the Jackdaw' plan spotted. It reveals the Jackdaw that's going to be targeted next to the Magpie too, and if that Jackdaw has a shiny thing (my assumption would be that either all non-Crow factions or the Crows, Ravens, and Jackdaws have one each) then the Magpie gets a golden opportunity to try and steal from them. Of course the Magpie knows who the Jackdaws are anyway, so how much of a problem that is I don't know, but it's worth thinking on.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Terrabrand said:
In light of that... I'm gonna go for, sadly, d1 activity pushing.

@ComiTurtle you have 2 posts, at the very start, neither is real content. We have 14-15~ hours left, give or take, I'm not up to figuring out exactly, get posting friend bird.

@Shadell you have no vote out and no real content, and one post.

@UnderlingMaster ditto.

@Tykan you've also got one post, and no vote. Some content, at least, but shape up.

@Wiadi same as Tykan.

@1KBestK you've got about three posts and no real vote and little content.

The eagle eyed will notice that's over 1/3rd of all players. I might be overlooking another low poster. Barring something exceptional happening, my vote is going somewhere in this inactivity block for the rest of d1, because holy shit we can't as town let that huge count of players do nothing.

[] Peck Shadell

Coinflip toss, metaphorically, between Shadell and Underling Master for most vote worthy on activity basis atm.

(this is also a great example of the coordination problem because we have a lot of people not voting and not posting we'd have no idea if the final lynch was jackdaw dictated or not.)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yeah, unless we can almost everyone voting the anti-Jackdaw plan is a no-go. Though as always, we now have to speculate why these players are low-content posting. Are they Ravens, Magpies, or Jackdaws keeping their heads down? Did they just not feel they had much to contribute to the discussion?
 
NSMS said:
Yeah, unless we can almost everyone voting the anti-Jackdaw plan is a no-go. Though as always, we now have to speculate why these players are low-content posting. Are they Ravens, Magpies, or Jackdaws keeping their heads down? Did they just not feel they had much to contribute to the discussion?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
it's entirely immaterial what alignment they are. People not posting give less to read, which means we have less to judge them off. This hurts town, because either they're a townie that can be pushed to myslynch with little difficulty from not having much content, or they're scum who can instead potentially slip the noose just from us having nothing to judge them on.

In particular, with so many lowposting like this we risk either having to choose to focus on the actives (and, for all we know, letting a bunch of scum go free to go to town on us at night) or us being forced to fire essentially blind into this block later when we do have more info.

Or, if they're all town then we have basically ceded the day to scum control of discussion with a max of like. 3 townies left active if we seriously have six highly inactive crows here.

None of these are good for town. Thus, barring an exceptional slip or claim, my vote is sticking in the Highly Inactive crowd for the rest of the day.
 
Ok, since we gonna know it at Night start anyway, my distribution assumption differs a bit from NSMS. Given the lore I'd rather go with the Ravens having all 3 shinies right now. So the first two days are particularly dangerous. As in, if the Ravens have all shinies and no one besides the Magpie steals from them, the Magpie wins N2.
That's why I recommended for the Jackdaws to vote together, so the Magpie has a higher chance to miss and doesn't start N1 with 2 shinies.
Please a little sanity check, how likely is that whole situation?

Sadly you forgot three other people Terra: -Rosen(rl issues), ItzNarcotic and Rayday.


For original content... I don't really know where to start.
But since you asked for a vote ;)

[X] Peck QTesseract

For the hilarious reason of appearing a bit more active, a bit too active for D1. With a grand total of 5 posts. And yes that's an honest suspicion. I hope that I won't stay with this as my best vote at EoD.
 
Tykan said:
Ok, since we gonna know it at Night start anyway, my distribution assumption differs a bit from NSMS. Given the lore I'd rather go with the Ravens having all 3 shinies right now. So the first two days are particularly dangerous. As in, if the Ravens have all shinies and no one besides the Magpie steals from them, the Magpie wins N2.
That's why I recommended for the Jackdaws to vote together, so the Magpie has a higher chance to miss and doesn't start N1 with 2 shinies.
Please a little sanity check, how likely is that whole situation?

Sadly you forgot three other people Terra: -Rosen(rl issues), ItzNarcotic and Rayday.


For original content... I don't really know where to start.
But since you asked for a vote ;)

[X] Peck QTesseract

For the hilarious reason of appearing a bit more active, a bit too active for D1. With a grand total of 5 posts. And yes that's an honest suspicion. I hope that I won't stay with this as my best vote at EoD.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
-rosen, sadly, is one of the most active players. But you are correct on the others I believe.

Ravens having all shiny things is incredibly unlikely. Both because that'd favor the magpie even before pointing it out, due to the fact that the magpies statistically favored choices are jackdaw>raven>crow (that is, if he has no reason to further narrow suspicions, his best shot at picking up a shiny thing is to steal from a jackdaw if each not him faction has 1, because he's got a fifty/fifty of picking right, and to steal from a raven if eg both crows and ravens have one with the magpie having the third.).

If anything, I'd find it more credible that the starting distribution is two for crows and one for the ravens, but regardless of alignment please don't claim shiny thing-ness bar like being up for the lynch or something. That only helps the magpie.
 
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Remove ads
Back
Top