History Strikes Back (TNO/TLM ISOT into OTL)

Without the stick of military intervention to enforce the rules-based international order and the economic sanctions toolbox not spoiled up yet, I think the UAR is going to be pleasantly surprised what the Capitalists are willing to let them get away with.
To be honest they might draw historical parallels with their experience with America then they look and see its literally Bush but Jr. and start preparing for the future.
 


"Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't."― Margaret Thatcher


It should have been a surefire thing.


For the British, Operation Hospitaller was meant to strike a blow that would demonstrate Britain's true might to the whole world and cement its position in the Pax-Americana while stripping the veil from the UAR and letting the world see it for what it truly was.

For the Italians, it was meant to bring order to the utter chaos of the Wamda and establish a new Mediterranean status quo before the situation deteriorated further.

For Silvio Berlusconi, it was an opportunity to demonstrate to everyone the veracity of his claims of being an equal to Jesus Christ, possessing an absurdly large brain, and to being cursed to win all the time.

For Tony Blair, it was his chance to secure his place in British history as one of its most memorable and important figures, whose actions would be taught and studied for generations afterward as an example for all future British politicians and leaders.

And indeed Operation Hospitaller achieved all of these things, just not in a way any of these parties wanted.

Disregarding Arab warnings, a British naval task force would brazenly enter the Arabian waters in their dash towards Malta, composed of the best ships the Royal Navy could field and most of the UK's remaining seafaring might, its commanders believing this would be their chance at quick and easy glory in the name of Queen and Country.

One moment the British fleet was sailing gloriously to war and one moment and a flash later it was simply no more as the Arab republic let the nuclear genie out of the bottle for the first time in its new home world since WW2.

Where there once was a flotilla there was now a scene that would not be out of place in a description of Johnam, as men were vaporized in an instant while hot shrapnel and boiling water saturated the aid, while others were cooked alive as their ship hulls became atomic furnaces in an instant.

Those unfortunate enough to still be alive on partially intact ships would be exposed to amounts of radiation that the human body was never meant to withstand and died slow painful agonizing deaths.


Their Italian counterparts would suffer a fate no kinder the second they entered UAR waters as their best and brightest of the Marina Militare were pulverized in atomic fire and their ships reduced to irradiated scraps descending to the depths of Mare Nostrum, becoming just a collection of shipwrecks in a sea already full of them.

Their illustrious liberation of Sicily had ended without them ever setting foot on the island, the Italian naval forces having opted to not strike directly across Messina in fear of the UAR inflicting damage on the Italian mainland during the fighting, instead taking a longer route to attack Palmero directly.

Though the radioactive fallout from the tactical nukes would disperse relatively quickly, their political fallout would reshape the world and influence global politics for years to come.

Operation Hospitaller was an unmitigated disaster for the Anglo-Italians, in one fell swoop they had lost some of their best naval assets while inflicting no losses on the enemy, a failure of such magnitude that it could not be hidden or covered up.

The governments in Rome and London had revealed their full plans to the world shortly before the nuclear strikes, posing them as liberating European lands from communist dictatorship and restoring unrestricted access to the Mediterranean Sea.

The revelation was already controversial at the time, even to the normally intervention-happy George Bush but when news started trickling in of what transpired since then a political maelstrom would be unleashed across the entirety of NATO.

The armed forces of Italy and Britain were thrown into utter chaos by the sudden disappearance of so many vital assets, and when news reached the civilian population the previous tensions and protests turned positively apocalyptic.

In Rome, Berlusconi had made the worst mistake any right-wing leader could make, he had shown himself weak and incompetent. Italy's largest cities soon became hotbeds of chaos as protestors and people from across the entire political spectrum came out in droves to express their anger, hate, and fear in the most loud and destructive ways possible while the police struggled to maintain some semblance of order.

The Italian parliament itself looked as if it would erupt into open conflict at any moment as the sheer scope of the situation overwhelmed it, blame scorn, and insults being thrown at and by all sides even as the government scrambled to respond, the only thing everyone agreeing on was that Berlusconi was the main culprit behind this catastrophe, and the man who thought himself equal to Napoleon was only kept in power for as long as it took for an agreeable replacement to be found.

His British counterpart fared little better.

Tony Blair had hoped to become the next Thatcher, with Malta as his Falklands War, but now he found himself in the middle of a Suez Crisis and he was Eden reborn, only there were no tactical victories to show for it or American-Soviet interference to blame.

Blair was already controversial for his abandoning of Labor principles in favor of adopting Tory agendas and programs as well as his Warhawk tendencies in the name of spreading democracy across the world only to become a political pariah overnight, facing outrage, rage, and hatred from all sides of the spectrum.


His critics from the left were only vindicated and emboldened by his failure, his former supporters in the party now found his person as radioactive as the bombs themselves and distanced themselves from his failures even as they agreed with the spirit of what he sought to achieve. The Tories of course were happy to leap at the chance to crush their rival, and a vote of no confidence was all but certain now.

Blair would also receive a wrathful frenzied call from his White House counterpart, President Bush unleashing one of the most ear-blistering rants in human history as his mind attempted to make sense of the geopolitical shitstorm Whitehall had just unleashed and what had possessed the Europeans to launch an attack on a possibly nuclear state on their own.

When the British people learned about what transpired, terror and panic spread across the isles like wildfire, and it wasn't long before they turned to hate and rage, especially when news came of Arab/Comintern naval groups skirting dangerously close to European waters.

The StWC movement was galvanized as the peace advocates were vindicated beyond their wildest nightmares but their surge was minute compared to the rampages of recently radicalized right-wing hooligans across the nation, who assaulted minority communities with no mercy or hesitation, leaving dozens dead and hundreds injured. The economic crisis that Blair hoped to get ahead of was now made infinitely worse as war panic only served to worsen its effects and all but ensure the United Kingdom was looking down the possibility of utter economic ruin.

All the while the US moved quickly in an attempt to salvage the situation and halt escalation, the neoconservative Bush administration finding itself in the damned awkward position of having to be the peacemaker and mediator for once (even the neocons had little desire for a world of ashes), and with an Islamic communist government no less, Washington would even reach out to Beijing to join talks in an attempt to mollify the Arabs, even as the CPC struggled to make sense of what was going on in the other side of Asia.

Luckily for a world that spent 36 hours facing the renewed prospect of a Global Nuclear Holocaust, Cairo was more than willing to negotiate; it had little desire to escalate itself with its economy in chaos from the displacement and already having to put out many fires on the domestic front, and of course, the communists too were keen on not turning the world into a glowing lifeless rock.

The UAR has other reasons to be in a bargaining mood, it had displayed its power on the world stage with no losses and maintained its hold over the Mediterranean, and the attempted invasions have had the effect of shaking the UAR's population from its state of stupor, shock and depression from its severing from its global comrades as they were given purpose and reminded of the dangers that lay in this world, allowing survival instincts to kick in.

Of course, the United Arab Republic would be surprised when the capitalist bloc invited it to negotiate an end to the fighting and discuss peace terms, such gestures of diplomacy between various blocs being an almost extinct species back home.

Nonetheless, the socialist republic wasted no time in assembling a team of diplomats and negotiators for the task as the world looked with both fear and curiosity at the first moves in what was certain to be the next Cold War.

But things were hardly cool for Tony Blair and Silvio Berlusconi, whose ambitions and manias had driven them to try and reach the sun like Icarus only for their wings to burn….

| And fall straight to hell |
Tony Blair as his ships got blown to hell by the UAR Fleet.

 
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To be honest they might draw historical parallels with their experience with America then they look and see its literally Bush but Jr. and start preparing for the future.
Unless the ISOT radically changes the 43 administration's domestic policies, it's going to be a bit of a mindfuck. Still plainly capitalist and American with a big focus on corporate tax cuts, half-hearted environmentalism, religion having more power under the law, and anti-women's health, but much of what we IRL have long gotten used to started under him. Beyond the tax cuts, we're talking things like Amber Alerts, the national sex offender registry, No Child Left Behind, Medicare Part D, and the MMA Act.
 
Well this will change things for better or worse, things are far more hotter than the cold war itself and now everyone knows the old rules no longer apply thanks the British and Italian disaster. I'm not sure they can recover from this in a decade given the institutional knowledge lost in a decade as a result of this strike even if they can replace the ships and men.

I think once things settle a bit you will around the non communist world you might see a move towards a more centre/left economically position even as socially things tilt to the right as a result of millenarian based creeds arise alongside the anti Arab racism not going away.

That being said ironically I wonder if the UAR might have cut the legs off any universal reaction towards it. By that most European nations no longer will be receiving migration from the Middle East that the far right use to create a common other as a binding agent leaving the inherent tension of pan European versus local to still be a major thing.
 
That being said ironically I wonder if the UAR might have cut the legs off any universal reaction towards it. By that most European nations no longer will be receiving migration from the Middle East that the far right use to create a common other as a binding agent leaving the inherent tension of pan European versus local to still be a major thing.
There's still problems in Africa that can cause major human displacement.

But that assumes the UAR doesn't decide its time for ASU 2.0.
 
There's still problems in Africa that can cause major human displacement.

But that assumes the UAR doesn't decide its time for ASU 2.0.
That would be a dream in the 2000s. At this point with the strong extraction of minerals through neo-colonialism by the Europeans, North Americans, and the Chinese, as well as the complete weaknesses of left movements (sans the EFF in South Africa). The people of Sub-Saharan might be ready for a liberation, but the neo-colonial comprador dynasty president for life African stooges aren't. You think Equatorial Guionea President almost 22 years running Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo is going to give up his presidency to the reds? Anymore than 16 year Yoweri Museveni in Uganda or any other dictator in the Sub-Sahara Africa propped up by NATO. Not helped by the effect besides being tin pot dictators, they also have put in flaws in their respective nations that completely go against UAR values like homophobia, transphobia, xenophobia, tribalism, ethnic strife and other ills. Again any liberation and occupation from the UAR is going to struggle with these problems.

The UAR is going to have recreate from scratch a pan-African movement. Which will be difficult by itself with the fact that the UAR are majority Arab pluri-nation not sub-Saharan African individual ones.

I'd like to see it, but it sounds like it'll be hard in this timeline.
 
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Honestly? If the UAR can keep the flame of left-wing politics - and I mean actual left-wing politics and not Social Democracy - alight and help out what vanishingly few other left-wing nations actually exist (Cuba...?), that's enough of a W for me.

Like, it can't be overstated how left-wing politics IRL is basically the equivalent of a corpse. The above scenario where it'd be the equivalent of a sick person slowly getting treatment is already so much of a difference that I honestly don't dare to hope of an actual living and healthy left-wing personification.
 
Not to be paternalistic but would that be the worst thing?
Much like what Ultraman said, the conditions of TLM fostered pan-culturalism and Pan-Africanism due to Italy, The Reich, and then the western countries various colonial occupations ending in mass genocide. The ASU got off the ground because everyone was running on Israel-grade collective social solidarity and wanted to present the strongest possible bulwark while caring for the survivors.
Not helped by the effect besides being tin pot dictators, they also have put in flaws in their respective nations that completely go against UAR values like homophobia, transphobia, xenophobia, tribalism, ethnic strife and other ills. Again any liberation and occupation from the UAR is going to struggle with these problems.
I agree that culture is going to be a big issue for the narrative given what's going on in the quest line, but as far as the international community is concerned, they just want market access. If the UAR will sell the resources to the globe at fair market prices, then it's just a wierd uncle at the dinner table situation.

Until the mid 2010s roll around.
 
Jonathan Turley said:
Goldstein was sentenced to a paltry 12 ½ years for conspiracy to violate civil rights. -- Is there any question what the charge would be if an Arab American or Muslim were found with such an arsenal and plans to bomb churches or synagogues?

National Review editor Rich Lowry said:
Lots of sentiment for nuking Mecca. Moderates opt for something more along these lines: 'Baghdad and Tehran would be the likeliest sites for a first strike. If we have clean enough bombs to assure a pinpoint damage area, Gaza City and Ramallah would also be on list. Damascus, Cairo, Algiers, Tripoli and Riyadh should be put on alert that any signs of support for the attacks in their cities will bring immediate annihilation

CAIR said:
 
I can see the UAR influence far right groups trying to kick out the insane far right including the capitalist ones when they eventually do their "Woke" movement by trying to take over them
 
All the while the US moved quickly in an attempt to salvage the situation and halt escalation, the neoconservative Bush administration finding itself in the damned awkward position of having to be the peacemaker and mediator for once (even the neocons had little desire for a world of ashes), and with an Islamic communist government no less, Washington would even reach out to Beijing to join talks in an attempt to mollify the Arabs, even as the CPC struggled to make sense of what was going on in the other side of Asia.

The USA: China! You've gotta help us out here! You know these communists, right?
China:


Of course, the United Arab Republic would be surprised when the capitalist bloc invited it to negotiate an end to the fighting and discuss peace terms, such gestures of diplomacy between various blocs being an almost extinct species back home.

COMINTERN/UAR Leadership: So, wait, you're saying these proto-Schlaflyites want to... negotiate?
Diplomat: Essentially, yes.
COMINTER/UAR Leadership: What kind of insane, bizzarro world have we wound up in?!
 
Yeah, that also probably means a coup attempt in Venezuela or even an outright invasion.
I mean they tried the former IRL, it just failed.
COMINTERN/UAR Leadership: So, wait, you're saying these proto-Schlaflyites want to... negotiate?
Diplomat: Essentially, yes.
COMINTER/UAR Leadership: What kind of insane, bizzarro world have we wound up in?!
Negotiation? We're not falling for this one again, invade Sweden!
 
Even electoralist movements might not be safe. Lula's social democracy might be seen with a more critical eye by Washington and there may be more of an effort to strangle the MAS-IPSP before it can take power in Bolivia.
First comment here.
In 2002 Lula hadn't been elected yet, I wouldn't be surprised if the election gets rigged against him or he gets couped. But yeah, pink wave is pretty much dead beyond Chavez, which suffered a coup attempt in 2002, which might push him from pink to red as now there is a backer for them.
 
First comment here.
In 2002 Lula hadn't been elected yet, I wouldn't be surprised if the election gets rigged against him or he gets couped. But yeah, pink wave is pretty much dead beyond Chavez, which suffered a coup attempt in 2002, which might push him from pink to red as now there is a backer for them.
You think Chavez can be saved from the mistakes he made in our world by giving him an inspiration of what left communism actually looks like (UAR)? Like how do we know he won't drag his feet transitioning to proletariat rule or dividing the left like he did in our timeline?
 
You think Chavez can be saved from the mistakes he made in our world by giving him an inspiration of what left communism actually looks like (UAR)? Like how do we know he won't drag his feet transitioning to proletariat rule or dividing the left like he did in our timeline?
Also material support, so that attempts at sanctions matter less.
 
I wonder what would happen to Gibraltar?

Not exactly sure how TLM Diplomacy would act to this whole negotiation thing.
They will adjust quickly

You think Chavez can be saved from the mistakes he made in our world by giving him an inspiration of what left communism actually looks like (UAR)? Like how do we know he won't drag his feet transitioning to proletariat rule or dividing the left like he did in our timeline?
He will have more room to breathe so to speak.

The USA: China! You've gotta help us out here! You know these communists, right?
China:
"I have never met this man in my life"


The UAR is going to have recreate from scratch a pan-African movement. Which will be difficult by itself with the fact that the UAR are majority Arab pluri-nation not sub-Saharan African individual ones.
Funny you should say that.
 
Non-UAR citizens caught in the ISOT numbers
Total number: 35 million

From biggest number to lowest:

1. ASU citizens: 6 million (17.1%)

2. Anatolians-Aegans (including Turks, Kurds, Greeks, Ionians, etc): 4 million (11.4%)

3. Yugoslavs: 3 million (8.57%)

4. Bharatis: 3 million (8.57%)

5. Iranians: 3 million (8.57%)

6. MedFed citizens: 3 million (8.57%)

7. Afghanis: 2.5 million (7.1%)

8. Eurasians: 2.5 million (7.1%)

9. Brazillians: 2 million (5.71%)

10. Pan-Europa citizens (includes Frenchmen, Irishmen, Germans, Dutchmen, Danes, Iberians, ZSR citizens): 2 million (5.71%)

11. Pan-Americans (inculdes Andeans, Paraguyans, Chileans, Cubans and Nicruagans): 2 million (5.71%)

12. Indochinese: 1 million (2.8%)

13. Others (Greenlanders, Britons, , Oceanians, etc): 1 million (2.8%)
 
5. Iranians: 3 million (8.57%)
That is enough people you could find a sufficient number of fit adults, armed with the vast military resources of the UAR military-industrial complex, to make an army that could take Iran. The Comintern never skipped on military R&D and had most of the brainpower on Earth to pull from, at minimum they are at the same levels as the US.
 
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