There's something i been thinking about, and that's korea. In tno korea is a japanese province in which the resistence movement failed to Gained momentum, but IOTL, its split between the dystopian communist north, and the dystopian capitalist south.
It may be seems a bit hypocritical of the UAR to help the kim's, but by this time china still consider it a valuable buffer againts japan (and in turn the US).
If we want to tilt china's direction to us even just by a little, Ghaddafi have to play hardball with juche
Like, think of the Strait of Hormuz. It's still being used. Many navies are using the place as a giant practice ground for shooting down drones and missiles… yet the Houthi Rebels are claiming they're going to lock it down against "Israeli" shipping.
It's worth noting that a lot of AIPAC's support comes not from Jewish people, but from Christian Evangilists who want to fulfil the prophecy of the Rapture. And I doubt that support is going anywhere, regardless of any dialogue that opens up between the UAR's and America's Jewish communities.
It's worth noting that a lot of AIPAC's support comes not from Jewish people, but from Christian Evangilists who want to fulfil the prophecy of the Rapture. And I doubt that support is going anywhere, regardless of any dialogue that opens up between the UAR's and America's Jewish communities.
The weird thing is, that whole prophecy has just been derailed, at least for the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the millenialist nuts figure this is a sign that Israel has already fulfilled it's role and now the Beast/Anti-Christ (in the form of the Islamo-Communist UAR) has clearly arisen, so it's time to prepare for tribulations and all that...
"What is new about the emerging world order is that, for the first time, the United States can neither withdraw from the world nor dominate it."― Henry Kissinger
The Berlin summit was an event that would determine the course of the next twenty years.
It would be the first time the newly arrived United Arab Republic dealt with the dominant powers of this world on equal footing, and marked its true entry into international politics. For the new communist superpower, it would be a chance to gauge the stances and attitudes of their new geopolitical rivals (and witness a version of Berlin that wasn't a rotting corpse of a city).
For the other side, namely the humiliated Britain and Italy, along with their NATO allies led by the US acting as mediators, it was a chance to get a handle on their new geopolitical opponent and their diplomatic strategies; though the nuclear strikes were more than enough to give them an idea of what they were dealing with and just how warped international relations were in the world the newcomers came from.
For millions around the world, and many statesmen, they would watch the event with equal amounts curiosity and fear with a few even daring to have hope that the conference might somehow preempt a second Cold War when the world was still moving past the last one.
It was a foolish naive hope.
Though both sides agreed in principle on a ceasefire, problems started when the UAR raised the questions of war reparations and their ascension to the UN as a permanent security council member.
The UAR had demanded a relatively modest monetary amount, after all, their need for foreign currency was limited for outside trade, but the real problem was the demand for technological and industrial goods alongside the money, the Arabs seeking any advantage in bridging the gaps that existed between their technology and those possessed by the developed economies of this world. Additionally, Italy had to officially recognize Sicily as UAR territory.
The Italian side was furious at the idea of paying anything when they had already lost so much before and after the Mediterranean crisis, one diplomat even suggested that the UAR should be the one to pay reparations instead much to the anger of the republican diplomat and the frustration of his own side.
The British delegation was more diplomatic about the reparations but had made it clear that they would only agree to monetary compensation, and one at a much lower price than the UAR demanded, arguing that anything more would be ruinous to their already battered economy. They had also made it clear that they would veto any attempt by the UAR to enter the UNSC as a permanent member.
The first day ended without much being achieved other than both sides becoming more indignant at each other, and the US would be forced to intervene behind the scenes to make its allies play ball even if publicly it maintained a position of being shocked and disappointed by its allies action but committed to supporting them and finding a peaceful resolution (any other position risked being seen as too sympathetic to the communists to the American and European publics).
The Americans wanted the talks to go smoothly and be done quickly, as they wished to broach the issue of the Suez Canal and the Bab il Mandab strait with the Arabs, both critical passages have been on lockdown since the Wamda and exacerbating the global economic crisis, their continued closure would be a disaster for international trade. Even worse was if the commies decided to use selective passage through their waters as a diplomatic tool to win allies over to its camp in the future.
Thus they made it clear to their allies that they would need to play ball come the next round of talks, and were warned of the consequences should they refuse to do so.
Unfortunately for the Americans, it was the turn of the UAR/Comintern diplomats to play hardball as they not only reiterated their demands of a permanent security council position and recognition but raised the amount of reparations required significantly which drew outrage from the opposing sides.
They would further dash American hopes when they made it clear that the UAR naval passages would remain closed in the near term to all except trusted allies of the Republic or fellow Communist International members (both categories that were empty at the time) and anyone else that wished passage would have to negotiate directly with Cairo. Threats of international sanctions and diplomatic isolation proved ineffective in getting the socialists to change their minds.
This impasse and slap to the face nearly doomed the talks, and even Germany was growing weary of being the host for long when it became clear UAR/Comintern diplomatic attaches were happy to use times between negotiations to give out pamphlets and booklets on socialism and organizing (and happening to mention the actions of many current prominent political figures in another time).
Eventually, cooler heads prevailed, even if nobody would get what they truly wanted.
The Italians and British sides were pressured enough by growing chaos in their homelands driven by fears of a continued conflict to give into the UAR's demands for reparations, at an amount that was lesser than their maximal demands but higher than their initial offer and it would be paid in purely monetary terms.
The UAR/Comintern diplomats for their part accepted that they wouldn't be getting anything more from their counterparts, not when their insistence on the closure of the Suez and Mandab drove the Americans to be more supportive of their allies in response. Cairo didn't have high expectations from the negotiations to begin with and was already eyeing more opportune diplomatic ventures elsewhere in the world.
Thus a ceasefire would be agreed to, even if Italy would continue to maintain that Sicily was part of its sovereign territory, and both sides would depart already planning on how to get the upper hand for the next round whenever it came.
The Berlin summit was a learning experience for both sides in the end. The UAR gained a glimpse of how international diplomacy worked in this "victory at the Urals" TL works and had demonstrated itself as capable of negotiating on equal footing with its great powers even if they were currently weakened by their permanent isolation from the rest of the Comintern.
Meanwhile, the Western powers would learn that the UAR may fly the red flag and praise Lenin but it was not the USSR reborn, not just another Great Power that cared about its interests foremost above any cause and perpetually behind in economic power, but a different, loud, proud and belligerent beast that had no illusion or desire for long-term co-existence.
A new Cold War was beginning and all the players were rushing to prepare themselves for the battles to come as the wheel of fate twisted and turned, disrupting the destiny of US hegemony and sentencing the world to a new age of freedom, terror, reaction and revolution as the American Eagle found itself challenged by its red Arab counterpart…
just another Great Power that cared about its interests foremost above any cause and perpetually behind in economic power, it was a different, loud, proud and belligerent beast that had no illusion or desire for long-term co-existence.
On the one hand, this is the age of the most powerful air superiority platform ever built. On the other, it's not a wonder-weapon and there's plenty of nations interested in "multipolar" international dynamics because they get a leg up.
Honestly it seems that there's no way that a Cold War can be prevented. Yet the UAR even at a disadvantage, has several advantages that the USA/NATO doesn't have.
It has control over most of the world's oil, a highly experienced army, control over the lower Mediterranean and Arabian Peninsula, a strongly united population, much lesser levels of discontent to the northern Atlantic countries due to various reforms, and a population free from anarchic exploitations of capital. It may not have the allies it once had, yet it already has 4 potential allies it could work on (China, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua).
Overall due to stronger powers of capital in this world, plus the lesser discontent from NATO compared to the CDN. A socialist worldwide victory might not be possible in this timeline, and at a bare minimum it would take at least 5-10 years before international leftism is a powerful force again thanks to brutal neoliberalism.
Yet it would be fun to see what the UAR could aim for, even though it's unlikely to help achieve a strong leftism enough for a consistent threat in their enemy countries like the USSR did IOTL during the 20th century. Military victories don't always translate to left political growth unfortunately.
I presume the fact that OTL USSR managed to blunt Barbarossa and eventually kill Nazi Germany compared to TNO where Barbarossa killed the USSR, or at the very least shatter the Soviet Union suceeded and managed to push the Soviet Remnants across the Ural Mountains.
I presume the fact that OTL USSR managed to blunt Barbarossa and eventually kill Nazi Germany compared to TNO where Barbarossa killed the USSR, or at the very least shatter the Soviet Union.
That doesn't quite fit the "Urals" part of the "Victory at the Urals" part, though. "Victory at the Volga", sure, since Stalingrad was the turning point in that war. But the Urals? Not so much.
Russia Pre-Med crisis: Well this changes everything
Russia Post-Med crisis: Well this complicates everything but also opens up new opportunities.
France Pre-Med crisis: Islamo-Bolsheviks!
France Post-Med crisis: Islaamo-Bolshievks who are a threat to my not!empire in west africa. But also finally, a worthy opponent! Our battle shall be legendary.
China Pre-Med crisis: Oh a possible ally! If all goes well we can make a lot of money together.
China Post-Med crisis: well fuck
South Africa Pre-Med Crisis: oh ffs we bow to the IMF just as a socialist superpower comes back?
South Africa Post-Med Crisis: Hey UAR wanna be besties!
Brazil Pre-Med Crisis: This is not gonna end well.
Post-Med Crisis: *nervously staring at America*
US Pre-Med Crisis: *angry Islamophobic anti-communist screaming*
US Post-Med Crisis: " Damn you Blair"+ *angry Islamophobic anti-communist screaming*
Germany Pre-Med Crisis: Oh they will fall apart in no time
That doesn't quite fit the "Urals" part of the "Victory at the Urals" part, though. "Victory at the Volga", sure, since Stalingrad was the turning point in that war. But the Urals? Not so much.
It's probably about the economic consolidation after the mass factory relocation in 1941. The USSR didn't shatter, it rebuilt and made opportunities later on.
The victory was fought at the Volga, but it was mass-produced behind the Urals.
Meanwhile, the Western powers would learn that the UAR may fly the red flag and praise Lenin but it was not the USSR reborn, just another Great Power that cared about its interests foremost above any cause and perpetually behind in economic power, it was a different, loud, proud and belligerent beast that had no illusion or desire for long-term co-existence.
It's probably about the economic consolidation after the mass factory relocation in 1941. The USSR didn't shatter, it rebuilt and made opportunities later on.
The victory was fought at the Volga, but it was mass-produced behind the Urals.
Now that's an explanation which did occur to me. The alternative is that the victory isn't the Soviet one against Nazi Germany in WW2, but the American one over the Soviet Union in the Cold War. I suppose Starmaker will clarify sooner or later...
The UAR is 'negotiating' like its still up against the CDN or CPS back home, i.e. Superpowers further shored up colonial/neo-colonial control of large chunks of the World that are completely and utterly ideologically opposed. It'll be interesting how they handle things once they adapt to the diplomacy and intrigue in IRL/OTL world where...diplomacy isn't quite so blunt (though just as vicious I'd argue) and things are done with under-the-table action than with a sledgehammer.
The UAR is 'negotiating' like its still up against the CDN or CPS back home, i.e. Superpowers further shored up colonial/neo-colonial control of large chunks of the World that are completely and utterly ideologically opposed. It'll be interesting how they handle things once they adapt to the diplomacy and intrigue in IRL/OTL world where...diplomacy isn't quite so blunt (though just as vicious I'd argue) and things are done with under-the-table action than with a sledgehammer.
That might actually be difficult for the UAR given how they have recent kerfufles about government accountability and leading according to the will of the people. A lot of modern diplomacy, the international poker game where everyone cheats, doesn't really gel with that.
It would be most of southern Africa. Mozambique, Angola, Tanzania, and Namibia are all countries whose governments are controlled by parties that are nominally left-leaning.
It would be most of southern Africa. Mozambique, Angola, Tanzania, and Namibia are all countries whose governments are controlled by parties that are nominally left-leaning.
Ooooooo, I wonder if the UAR can woo them to their side? The UAR is a genuinely socialist nation, so they could probably safely start their transition to Socialism with the UAR protecting them.
Ooooooo, I wonder if the UAR can woo them to their side? The UAR is a genuinely socialist nation, so they could probably safely start their transition to Socialism with the UAR protecting them.
Are you a new member? If so welcome to the timeline.
I'm sure they could woo them as long as the genuinely socialist old guard is still there, that or the UAR rebuilds the socialist movement from Africa's youth. Most of the ex-socialist guerrilla resistance fighters in African countries have ruling dynasties that have fallen to corruption. Like modern Angola where the President José Eduardo dos Santos (1979-2017) children have become extremely wealthy in a country that ranks almost last in human development. Not to mention modern Uganda as President Yoweri Museveni (1986-current day) allows copious amounts of foreign aid to be wasted while the income inequality worsens.
An odious case of corruption that is a former Soviet Bloc ally Equatorial Guinea where the head of state Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo holds a net worth of US$600 million in a country where most of his people suffer from a lack of basic services.
I bet the United Arabs will Instigate alot of stuff the globe over.
But yes i agree in a timeline where "communism" almost always negotiated it is quite inetresting to sich a game of hardball.
Cant wait for the next Chapter
Long Live the Woröd Revolution haha
Getting the countries of Southern Africa to join the UAR would be great for them. The world is already being denied the Suez Canal, so also denying them ports around Africa from which they could refuel is huge. Not even sure how a world which relies heavily on global trade would even react. It's either making a good deal with the UAR, I can see countries like China and India doing this, or completely reworking your economy and trade networks. And I feel like economic collapse leading to radical political changes is a lot more likely for most places.
And that does lead me to my next point. All these economic crises can really shake up politics. Will Labour stay in power? Will Bush lose his reelection in '04? And there's a million other places we could hone in on to see how the UAR's existence just completely flips the script. I'm wondering if we start to see more regional blocs now that NATO and the US is no longer the only big man on campus, so to speak.
All this to say I'm still very excited about this TL. Keep it up.
