Thank you! I'm actually an old member of TLM, it's just that I didn't have an SV account and mainly discussed in Discord. Still, happy to formally join!
Not to mention that he won't be blamed for the economic crisis because it's was caused by a legit OCP that no one could have predicted or planned for. That and the combination of Islamophobia and anti-communism does wonders for rallying voter support.
Many people in the TLM universe see the point where the USSR truly lost WW2 was when its evacuation of industry behind the Ural Mountains failed because Nazi plot armor, that it succeeded in this TL is considered one of the factors that led to the Axis defeat.
Of course OTL will be called many other things, not all of them flattering.
Yet it would be fun to see what the UAR could aim for, even though it's unlikely to help achieve a strong leftism enough for a consistent threat in their enemy countries like the USSR did IOTL during the 20th century. Military victories don't always translate to left political growth unfortunately.
The UAR has zero illusions about the feasibility of a socialist revolution within both the first and second world (non-existent) and will plan its next moves accordingly.
You joke but this will be an actual thing as the UAR just keeps upending regional status quos with complete disregard to any of the usual Great Power arrangements and norms. Also there will be a trend of neo Cold Warriors lamenting that at least the old USSR held onto good old fashioned societal norms and values unlike the "degenerate satanic queer" UAR.
Not to mention that he won't be blamed for the economic crisis because it's was caused by a legit OCP that no one could have predicted or planned for. That and the combination of Islamophobia and anti-communism does wonders for rallying voter support.
This hasn't been mentioned yet, maybe because it's entered the shorthand for the Iraq War so much, but it's worth pointing out:
A key... secondary reason behind Bush giving the go-ahead on Iraqi Freedom was personal animus.
Back in 1993, ahead of a visit by Bush 41, Kuwaiti authorities arrested several Iraqi nationals and some Kuwaitis who were planning to drive a truck bomb at the former president's car. While the Iraqis did confess to the FBI that they think they were hired for this job by Iraqi intelligence, the CIA was a bit more wary and concluded that Kuwait had exaggerated the danger of a smuggling route for PR reasons. While then-President Clinton ordered a missile strike on Iraqi Intelligence Headquarters and considered the matter wrapped up, George W. Bush always remembered the fear and anger over what he saw as a near brush with an assassin from Saddam Hussein. To paraphrase from my long-term memory, "He tried to kill my daddy." It wasn't a leading factor when pre or post-9/11 discussions of Iraq came around, but it speaks to his mental state when evaluating the discussion over topics like whether Iraq had restarted WMD research/production and if it's human rights record was worth doing regime change over.
That makes me think W won't be taking the talk of what his father did in another timeline lying down. And the whole alt-timeline track record is also something he could take to the campaign trail as 'lies and slander about our great nation's leaders'. It's not on the same level as whatever bomb plot Iraqi Intelligence came up with, but between the UAR's unwillingness to negociate and their fervor for spreading communism, adding a personal/family grudge to the mix when evaluating possible responses is probably a good idea.
It was an existing policy goal, there's going to be a rally around the flag with the new cold war, and there is going to be an association with queerness and communism, one likely pushed heavily by the administration because it ties three big bugbears of conservative America (Islam, Communism, and homosexuality) into one neat package.
It's genuinely hard to understate how much public opinion on gay rights have changed since the early 2000s or how pervasive casual homophobia used to be. Also gay sex was still illegal in a significant number of states as the ISOT predates Lawrence v. Texas.
Also there will be a trend of neo Cold Warriors lamenting that at least the old USSR held onto good old fashioned societal norms and values unlike the "degenerate satanic queer" UAR.
It's funny to me how, if the last few updates are any indication, this will coexist alongside the usual Islamophobic tropes of Muslims and Arabs being puritanical, arch-conservative zealots. Probably depends on the neo-Cold Warrior in question who will lean on one or the other (Right-wing Neocons versus the in-universe equivalent liberal NAFO heads).
This was an actual thing that George W. Bush was pushing at the time. California would actually ban gay marriage by referendum in 2008.
It was an existing policy goal, there's going to be a rally around the flag with the new cold war, and there is going to be an association with queerness and communism, one likely pushed heavily by the administration because it ties three big bugbears of conservative America (Islam, Communism, and homosexuality) into one neat package.
It's genuinely hard to understate how much public opinion on gay rights have changed since the early 2000s or how pervasive casual homophobia used to be. Also gay sex was still illegal in a significant number of states as the ISOT predates Lawrence v. Texas.
You do have a point, I just did a bit of research into his presidency. I now find him to be petty as well as homophobic in his calls to ban gay marriage at the state level based not just his own views, but to shore up support from his social conservative buddies. While it's terrible that he has a chance to do it IOTL (or specially in this timeline), I'm not too worried about the man's competence in other matters. It's pretty clear this man is easily among the least qualified American presidents in recent history, so it's reassuring to know that the man will humiliate himself even without an equivalent to the Iraq war. First the economic crisis, then Hurricane Katrina, by the time he's done he'll be a laughing stock known only for his corporate tax cuts, incompetence, and infamy (especially in the Comintern). I'm sure the Comintern will have a good laugh at George's stupidity, if it wasn't for the fact that he's worse than his father in terms of arrogance, recklessness, and lack of long-term thinking (not that TLM Bush senior was much better).
On the bright side humiliations of the conservatives and liberals, can strengthen the near lifeless left movement in the USA. Thus a stronger Occupy movement in Seattle protest will show the UAR that not all Americans are baby-eaters as they had seen them in their own world (although they'd probably be rightly skeptical given the ridiculousness of the TLM Seattle Commune).
Well, Bush DOES have an economic crisis hanging around his neck ATL which he didn't during his re-election campaign OTL. But then he does have the wiggle room to claim "It's not my fault, we're doing what we can to deal with it", with the former part of that statement having the benefit of even being true.
That makes me think W won't be taking the talk of what his father did in another timeline lying down. And the whole alt-timeline track record is also something he could take to the campaign trail as 'lies and slander about our great nation's leaders'. It's not on the same level as whatever bomb plot Iraqi Intelligence came up with, but between the UAR's unwillingness to negociate and their fervor for spreading communism, adding a personal/family grudge to the mix when evaluating possible responses is probably a good idea.
It's funny to me how, if the last few updates are any indication, this will coexist alongside the usual Islamophobic tropes of Muslims and Arabs being puritanical, arch-conservative zealots. Probably depends on the neo-Cold Warrior in question who will lean on one or the other (Right-wing Neocons versus the in-universe equivalent liberal NAFO heads).
"During the cold war, the anticommunist ideological framework could transform any data about existing communist societies into hostile evidence. If the Soviets refused to negotiate a point, they were intransigent and belligerent; if they appeared willing to make concessions, this was but a skillful ploy to put us off our guard. By opposing arms limitations, they would have demonstrated their aggressive intent; but when in fact they supported most armament treaties, it was because they were mendacious and manipulative. If the churches in the USSR were empty, this demonstrated that religion was suppressed; but if the churches were full, this meant the people were rejecting the regime's atheistic ideology. If the workers went on strike (as happened on infrequent occasions), this was evidence of their alienation from the collectivist system; if they didn't go on strike, this was because they were intimidated and lacked freedom. A scarcity of consumer goods demonstrated the failure of the economic system; an improvement in consumer supplies meant only that the leaders were attempting to placate a restive population and so maintain a firmer hold over them.
If communists in the United States played an important role struggling for the rights of workers, the poor, African-Americans, women, and others, this was only their guileful way of gathering support among disfranchised groups and gaining power for themselves. How one gained power by fighting for the rights of powerless groups was never explained. What we are dealing with is a nonfalsifiable orthodoxy, so assiduously marketed by the ruling interests that it affected people across the entire political spectrum."
Mostly true though Bush will draw the line at any whitewashing of CAR, that is too much even for him.
Or as Parenti would put it:
"During the cold war, the anticommunist ideological framework could transform any data about existing communist societies into hostile evidence. If the Soviets refused to negotiate a point, they were intransigent and belligerent; if they appeared willing to make concessions, this was but a skillful ploy to put us off our guard. By opposing arms limitations, they would have demonstrated their aggressive intent; but when in fact they supported most armament treaties, it was because they were mendacious and manipulative. If the churches in the USSR were empty, this demonstrated that religion was suppressed; but if the churches were full, this meant the people were rejecting the regime's atheistic ideology. If the workers went on strike (as happened on infrequent occasions), this was evidence of their alienation from the collectivist system; if they didn't go on strike, this was because they were intimidated and lacked freedom. A scarcity of consumer goods demonstrated the failure of the economic system; an improvement in consumer supplies meant only that the leaders were attempting to placate a restive population and so maintain a firmer hold over them.
If communists in the United States played an important role struggling for the rights of workers, the poor, African-Americans, women, and others, this was only their guileful way of gathering support among disfranchised groups and gaining power for themselves. How one gained power by fighting for the rights of powerless groups was never explained. What we are dealing with is a nonfalsifiable orthodoxy, so assiduously marketed by the ruling interests that it affected people across the entire political spectrum."
Ultimately, the hypocrisy and self-contradiction is in and of itself the point. Empire is accountable to no one while those who oppose it are automatically in the wrong.
Another fun one would be the Hellenic People's Republic to the 1821 Greek Revolution. I think 1991 Eurasia would be even more tense than this TL as things might become a race between Eurasia, post-Soviet nationalists, and NATO to gobble up the remainder of the USSR's territory. Things might get especially heated in places like the Baltics and Kaliningrad.
On one hand, I'm guessing the First World would be less likely to dismiss Eurasia since it would basically be perceived as a USSR 2.0, but on the other, that might mean they'd push even harder to contain it.
Hey, what do the uar think of russia, amd putin as a hole.
As we know, the russian federation is a ancap-turn state capitalist autocracy headed by a ex-secreat service agent. What would the uar think of the situation?
"When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done"― John Maynard Keynes
The global economy in the 2000s of the Screaming Eagle timeline was akin to a massive spider web of national networks, corporate interests, relations of extractions, debt wizardry, tax havens and many words that many people used but few truly understood.
This big international machine was born from blood and its gears greased by blood as Washington built this edifice of the free markets upon mountains of corpses, their only crime was daring to forget their place and dreaming of something better, such things were for white civilized Christians and no one else.
The riches and labor of tropical bloody Congo, abused Bolivia, sinking Bangladesh and many more would be subordinated to the will of corporations that strode across the globe uncaring of any laws of nations or men while those nations lucky enough to be on the winning side of history reaped the rewards of decades of neocolonialism as cheap goods flowed seemingly without end, millions slaving away and their futures denied in the name of endless mindless consumerism for people just as chained as they were, even if their bonds were made of gold rather than lead.
But no system is perfect and one that had capital at its foundation was always doomed to meet chaos, mayhem and creative destruction that was capitalism's bread and butter.
The truth is that the likes of Kissinger, Nixon and the IMF founders were greedy heartless men but they were no fools and understood perfectly the limits of the economic order they were building and the need to keep capitalists on a leash at home even as they preached and forced the gospel of the free market down the throats of everyone else.
But the leaders that came after them had been raised as true believers, growing prosperous on the successes of the their predecessors, who had no qualms of introducing the beasts of immiseration and alienation on their own people with the ignorable death of communism only emboldening each successor to outdo those who came before when it came to slashing benefits and enclosing commons, for with the free market penetrating into every corner of the earth it had nowhere to go but inwards like a snake devouring its tail.
Left to its own the global finance system would have hit a crisis, maybe in a year or two or six but it would have happened naturally eventually.
The Wamda didn't give it the luxury of a natural crash.
In the blink of an eye, nearly 750 billion worth of GDP simply vanished from the world economy, along with billions more in international corporate assets and investments.
This would have been a disaster all on its own but the Wamda had also erased many of the world's oil producers and besides many nations that were either key links in global production chains or lucrative markets to sell goods to. And the cherry on top was the crisis of global commerce as two key shipping nodes were now blocked to all ships for the foreseeable future.
Any one of these on its own would have been been the economic equivalent of a tsunami, all three together and you might as well have dropped a nuclear bomb on Wall Street.
The physical effects were immediate as long car/truck convoys formed outside gas stations in a repeat of the 70s while people would wait in long lines for their stores and supermarkets to open only for them to be empty and fallow as shipments were massively delayed if they didn't outright vanish in the Wamda.
The financial effect took a bit longer but soon enough across the globe savings and pensions were wiped, bubbles popped, companies were bankrupted and economies free-falled in a cascading effect as one country's economic crash exacerbated and worsened the other.
And the US as the world's largest economy only naturally suffered the most dramatic downturn as millions of Americans suddenly went from precariously middle class to just precarious; the suicide rate in the states being one of the few things on the upswing in the initial stages of the new recession.
The only silver lining was that fewer people were inclined to blame capitalism or their own governments for the immediate crisis than they normally would be, for the Wamda was something that no one could have realistically predicted or prepared for (something that was emphasized by government officials and free market economists repeatedly).
But this didn't mean the people weren't filled with anger, fear, confusion and despair as many saw their livelihoods shattered and their lives ruined by events beyond their control producing unbearable helplessness. They needed an outlet and Islamophobia was already the prevailing mood across Europe and North America and only compounded by the Mediterranean crisis, it was easy to see who would be the scapegoat.
Starting from Britain and Italy, mob attacks on Muslim communities and mosques would become a near daily occurrence across the US, Canada, Australia and Europe with beatings, knife attacks and outright shootings reaping a bloody toll, often even against communities that just happened to look Islamic such as Sikhs, with the British situation not helped by the sudden death of Queen Elizabeth from a heart attack shortly after a meeting with Blair.
There were of course just as many instances of people refusing to give into blind xenophobia, with neighbors and communities rallying to the defense of their Muslim peers, family and friends while the street fighting anti fascist left sprang into action after an initial period of confusion and uncertainty as old battles between the far left and far right replayed themselves in the 21st century, though the burgeoning ANTIFA fighters found themselves facing both fascist hooligans and police forces that targeted them exclusively and the movement across Europe was a shadow of its former self in the wake of the left's global malaise (and in Eastern Europe such groups were almost nonexistent).
One particular exception was Germany, were the antifa movement was largely sympathetic to Zionism and often actively participated in anti-Muslim protests and attacks.
All in all the Recession era was an inferno layered over an explosion and it would see the global status quo irrecoverably altered, for even as the fortunes of many countries fell, others saw opportunity amid all the wreckage and ruin if they played their cards right even as they struggled to keep their own houses in order.
the street fighting anti fascist left sprang into action after an initial period of confusion and uncertainty as old battles between the far left and far right replayed themselves in the 21st century, though the burgeoning ANTIFA fighters found themselves facing both fascist hooligans and police forces that targeted them exclusively and the movement across Europe was a shadow of its former self in the wake of the left's global malaise (and in Eastern Europe such groups were almost nonexistent).
The funny thing is that depending on the exact month the TL is in, the largest political party in Ukraine is the Communist Party of Ukraine and even after the March 2002 election was still the third largest party in the Ukrainian legislature.