Yeah honestly the UAR is more likely to side with the PRC over the ROC. They will see as in the same why they saw CDN Eurasia, the Japanese occupied part of China in the TLM, CDN Brazil, ect.
Plus you know the ROC is a super Neoliberal hellhole and is still oppressing the natives and any leftist groups. Also there is the whole terror in which the entire lefting wing of the Island of Taiwan was murdered in cold blood on the arrival of the Nationalist Government. Plus the ROC only exists to be a US Military base right next to the PRC. So yeah there will be 0 good will between the two.
People here acting like most of the world irrespective of politics, including the US, haven't already recognized the PRC over the ROC as the sole government of China since the "Opening Up" period. Though that may change eventually if the PRC pivots towards the UAR (which in all likelihood it will), it's still going to be a long time before countries can feasibly burn bridges with the current "workshop of the world" by something so petty and symbolic as recognizing a rump state.
Albeit a rump state with a burgeoning semiconductor industry which may be an area of interest for the UAR...
Yeah honestly the UAR is more likely to side with the PRC over the ROC. They will see as in the same why they saw CDN Eurasia, the Japanese occupied part of China in the TLM, CDN Brazil, ect.
Plus you know the ROC is a super Neoliberal hellhole and is still oppressing the natives and any leftist groups. Also there is the whole terror in which the entire lefting wing of the Island of Taiwan was murdered in cold blood on the arrival of the Nationalist Government. Plus the ROC only exists to be a US Military base right next to the PRC. So yeah there will be 0 good will between the two.
I agree with what your saying as the USA role in this is imperialistic. However to dismiss the people in Taiwan genuine desire for autonomy and democracy is not something I agree with. Remember this Island always desired some level of autonomy from the mainland due to a mixture of genuine local separatism and Japanese machinations.
Also Taiwan has become a democracy in 1996, and one of the reasons it wants to be separate is because the PRC is not a democracy, and is very hostile to the system. Not only that as we seen nowadays it's very oppressive to regions (Tibet and Xinjiang), that doesn't fully agree with its policies. Which began with Han Chinese expansion Migration to Xinjiang - Wikipedia into the area in a way that's very draining on the locals. Something that doesn't exactly inspire hope to the Taiwanese.
This is in contrast to the UAR who is very much a supporter of genuine self-determination for its people, has its own form of affirmative action for minorities, and is a democracy. The PRC cramps down on its peoples opposition to its policies, while the UAR listens to its people.
If you want to convince the Taiwanese to join the PRC, have the UAR tell China if its wants to regain Taiwan as province. Allow Taiwan to have its democracy and autonomy as an extension of the One country, two systems.
Also the ROC has lost power since the 1990s. The president in the 2000s is Chen Shui-bian who is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party.
It's also not really much of a hellhole anymore in the 2000s issues aside. It's very prosperous country in contrast to its time as a dictatorship. While modern Taiwan does treat leftists and indigenous people terribly, it's not as bad as the ROC period of white terror which ended in 1987. In particular the founding of NDHU College of Indigenous Studies in 2001 has been used as a way for self-determination for the indigenous people. The Labor Policy has improved since Democracy "A number of autonomous, non-official trade unions emerged, including the Taiwan Confederation of Trade Unions (TCTU) which acquired legal recognition in 2000.".
"Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent."― mao tse-tung
No nation is an island and even one as vast as the Republic couldn't hope to face the entire world on its own (even if it would fare better than most).
Cut off from the allies whose bonds were forged from blood and revolution, the Pan-Arab state would need to seek new allies in this world, even if the most realistic candidates were rather below the usual standards of the inhabitants of the long march world.
On paper there were five nations remaining that identified as communist by the time of the Wamda: the People's Republic of China, the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Laos and Cuba, and if one counts Hugo Chavez's Bolivarian state as a socialist then that brought the total number to six.
Arab-Cuban relations would be the least complicated of the bunch. Cuba had been the first country to officially recognize the United Arab Republic once the reality of the situation was confirmed and the UAR was quick to return the favor by recognizing the sole socialist bastion in the western hemisphere, allowing the process of establishing official diplomatic ties to begin.
Fidel Castro of the Dewey Denied timeline would welcome Arab and Comintern envoys while the Berlin conference was well underway, and greeting him at their head was none other than the Fidel Castro of the Long March Timeline, the picture of the inter-dimensional twins shaking hands becoming embalmic of the absurdities and oddities brought on by the Wamda (and directly linked to the suicide of at least one high ranking CIA operative), with a battle-scarred and eyepatch-wearing Ernesto Che Guvara almost looking normal in comparison as he lingered in the background.
Cuba had been a pleasant surprise for the UAR: though its economic capabilities and structure had been significantly degraded by the US regime of embargos and sanctions, the government structure was still recognizable as similar to the one from the other Cuba, simplifying a lot of things going forward.
It didn't take long for economic exchange and aid agreements to be made, and even with the UAR's current economic flux it still had enough to spare tonnes of resources and technical expertise to lend its long-isolated comrade, bolstered by the migration of thousands of displaced Cubans who were thankful that they still had a home country in this world (even if it wasn't the one they knew) and were eager to help it reach the heights they knew it was capable of, helping speed up Cuba's economic recovery.
With such generous aid, it was only natural that Havana would take certain moves to be more accommodating towards its new ally, such as removing old anti-LGBTQ laws from the books and legalizing civil unions, a move that made Cuba's ascension as an official Comintern member uncontroversial.
Of course, the United States was not at all pleased that its spiteful siege of the island that dared defy its will was broken with such little care and that its new mortal enemy had an outpost a stone's throw away from its borders, and made it clear that by breaking embargo restrictions the UAR was en route to become subject of sanctions itself; to which Cairo responded that the UAR and Cuba are sovereign states with the right to trade amongst themselves as they please and that the US would do well to not meddle in Comintern affairs.
Washington of course was outraged and insulted but for the time being could do little more than make vague threats and scaremonger about the Islamo-Bolshevik menace, with its economy falling faster than the swastika that crushed Albert Speer and its European allies within range of UAR nukes, it was best to accept this would be a losing battle.
Vietnam and Laos also proved open to pursuing close ties with the new colossus, the southeastern Asian states having retained their socialist governing structures for the most part even if sacrifices for the god of the free market had to be made, Vietnam found itself holding its nose and shaking hands with America to hold off the Chinese giant to the north.
The decision to pivot to Cairo was not just made out of mere inter-red camaraderie or friendship but was brought upon by several material factors namely the fact that global economic collapse hit the burgeoning economies of the SEA region hard and quite simply there was no one willing to provide as much generous aid as the UAR/Comintern if anyone was offering anything at all.
The predatory loan deals of the IMF and the accompanying SAPing were not enticing when a far more generous alternative existed, one that also guaranteed protection from China and was also willing to provide help in other ways as well, such as the removal of remaining munitions and mines left from the Vietnam War. The sheer difference between the UAR's disciplined and rigorous reaction to the threat of economic collapse compared to the languid confused reaction of the Western bloc.
Sealing the deal was America's abrupt return to its Cold War red scare mindset, turning the likes of Vietnam from a convenient ally to a potential dagger in the back, Washington's increasing hostility and suspicion towards the two nations (which in turn heightened suspicion from their non-red neighbors) ensured that what would have been the founding members of Indochina ran headlong into the welcoming arms of the Comintern, though they would be observers for the time being.
Of course, this new marriage was not a completely happy one, the veteran relatively conservative, and economic-minded cadres of the LPRP and CPV would butt heads with their much more idealistic, populist, and internationalist long March counterparts, who themselves were rather disappointed with the lack of will for a new Indochinese union and the relatively slow steps towards de-marketization.
Even so, both sides understood the need for cooperation as oil and other resources flowed into the Laotian and Vietnamese economies and the five-year plans of both countries had to be drastically rethinked and redesigned to account for the influx of aid and expertise.
Though Vietnam and Laos had been an underwhelming but welcome addition, one look at so called North Korea was enough for Cairo to know who would be its biggest headache in the coming years.
Whilst Cuba and the SEA nations were at least recognizable as socialist at some point in their past, the DPRK seemed to be an Economistesque caricature of communism brought to terrible life, being closer to a necrocratic cult dictatorship with a socialist aesthetic rather than anything Marx or Lenin would have conceived off (though it had many disturbing similarities to the post-Sejima Japan the UAR had left behind).
The Long Marchers were sympathetic to the conditions that led to the sorry state of the DRPK, the hellish bombing campaign by the US, and more recently the fall of the USSR and the economic isolation that followed (its opposition to the so-called state of Israel was another point in its favor), but that didn't and shouldn't justify all the things the Korean state had done.
For its part the DPRK was openly friendly to the Arab state, being the third nation to recognize it (South Africa being the second), and had been the one to seek out relations with Cairo rather than the other way around.
The decision to open ties was controversial within both the UAR and the Comintern, with both votes passing by narrow margins since many were not comfortable with enabling the Kim regime in any form, especially since its promises for reform were vague.
But ultimately pragmatic geopolitics won the day; the DPRK was a willing ally that offered a strategic position in East Asia that was too valuable to pass, and its industries possessed great potential if properly modernized. It would also be pointed out that the UAR would be in a better position to influence and shape North Korean politics towards a direction that was less…well whatever it was now and into a proper proletariatian democracy.
It would be the beginning of a fruitful yet tumultuous relation between Cairo and Pyongyang.
Notably many foreign observers and North Koreans themselves would be disturbed at how UAR/Comintern economic experts and advisors were utterly nonchalant about the economic ruin the DPRK was in and the state of its populace, many of them commenting that the DPRK was in very good shape compared to other disaster zones they had to work with.
And then came the elephant in the room, or rather Dragon.
The People's Republic of China had all the makings of an up-and-coming superpower with its growing industrial might and sprawling population, reform and opening up had brought much wealth and technological innovation to the country but also internal chaos, corruption and weakening of party organs as the CPC now grappled with the consequences of giving their socialism a dose of capitalism.
The UAR had arrived on the scene just as Jiang Zemin's premiership was nearing its end and the party was heavily debating what to do next with the new global status quo setting in.
The economic crisis was already causing problems for the PRC, its connections to Western markets making them dependent on their vitality just as the latter had become dependent on Chinese manufacturing, and a global downturn in turn meant less trade revenue for Beijing.
For the CPC leadership, the UAR was a mixed bag. On one hand, it was a socialist superpower that may be amenable to a mutually beneficial relationship and capable of providing a counterbalance to the US.
On the other hand, its very existence was bound to cause headaches; if the economic crisis was not trouble enough then the mere fact that the UAR not only possessed a fully industrialized economy that even in its weakened state was a match for the US but did so while being fully socialist and without the market compromises made by the PRC made a legitimacy crisis a matter of when not if, with the hard left factions that once seemed doomed to wither and die now seemed poised to rise again in prominence, and that's without taking the Chinese people themselves into account.
Cairo was also already proving meddlesome with its interference in North Korea, even if some within Beijing were satisfied to let someone else handle that mess, and its actions in the Mediterranean Crisis and subsequent talks proved that it wasn't easy to push around or negotiate with if it decided to be obstinate.
Ultimately the PRC would decide to pursue tentative ties with Cairo on its own terms, simply because the Politburo deemed it could not afford not to have any ties and the opportunities a partnership represented were simply too tempting to pass up.
For starters, if China could gain access to the Suez then its shipping companies would have an advantage in terms of speed and pricing. The potential of being able to tap into the UAR's vast oil and phosphate reserves might recuperate the losses of the Wamda. Then some. Beijing also saw itself as being able to play the role of middleman between the UAR and NATO, profiting from both and acting to mediate disputes between the two to cement its own position.
For the UAR's part it returned the PRC diplomatic gestures but had its own reservations about the Chinese dragon; though this CPC's survival was commendable it was a far cry from the organization that the Arabs were familiar with in their own world, and even displaced Chinese comrades would have to concede that the PRC was a different beast from the PUC.
A beast that would not be as easy to sway or wow as the others but also one that the UAR knew was too valuable not to at least establish a working relationship with.
And so the Dragon and the Eagle would tentatively reach out to each other, with talks promising to reach a reasonable trade agreement between the two. But even as they shook hands and spoke about international camaraderie it was clear that both sides were already sizing up the other and pondering how to exploit each other for gain.
However the Chinese politburo would later discover that they had grossly miscalculated their ability to act as a middleman.
Notably many foreign observers and North Koreans themselves would be disturbed at how UAR/Comintern economic experts and advisors were utterly nonchalant about the economic ruin the DPRK was in and the state of its populace, many of them commenting that the DPRK was in very good shape compared to other disaster zones they had to work with
"Hmm, you Dewey Denied timeline whipper snappers have a little famine, a little mass death and an economic collapse and suddenly it's a disaster zone. Let me tell you about rebuilding Iberia and the Mediterranean Federation and that business with McMath using Krankswarm tactics in Ireland and Nicaragua."
"though it had many disturbing similarities to the post-Sejima Japan the UAR had left behind" Anyone going to comment on this vague hint of the TNO world. Seems like if we're not careful in TNO their will be a north-Koreanesque nation in the East Asian Federation.
McMath is going to be interesting, as otl never underwent the radicalization and desperation his TLM counterpart did, and so the things the UAR has extensive evidence of him doing are going to look very foreign and alien to him. I genuinely have no idea how'd he react to it.
"Hmm, you Dewey Denied timeline whipper snappers have a little famine, a little mass death and an economic collapse and suddenly it's a disaster zone. Let me tell you about rebuilding Iberia and the Mediterranean Federation and that business with McMath using Krankswarm tactics in Ireland and Nicaragua."
"And let me tell you all that was nothing compared to the building something functional from CAR's charred corpse, now that made Iberia look like a cakewalk"
"What the hell happened to the Centeral African Republic"
Meanwhile Islam is just chillin as Chairman of Bengal's communist party and suddenly discovers he was the leader of the Communist international in another universe.
He tells himself that surely the commies are exaggerating or fabricating his counterpart's actions, less out of anticommunism and more bec he can't handle the fact that in another world he would have shook hands with CAR leaders and allowed mass HIV rapes.
Washington of course was outraged and insulted but for the time being could do little more than make vague threats and scaremonger about the Islamo-Bolshevik menace, with its economy falling faster than the swastika that crushed Albert Speer and its European allies within range of UAR nukes, it was best to accept this would be a losing battle.
I imagine the nationalists within the CPC who insist on China "becoming whole again" will have the winds taken out of their sails once the presence of a major geopolitical rival in Taiwan since 1949 ceases to be a concern which they ride off on.
Of course, the "course-correction" of the PRC combined with the ascendance of the new Comintern and the UAR's own dealings with the ROC (along with US pressure becoming overbearing) may or may not sway the now-DPP dominated electorate. Especially since the Comintern has always favored the foundation of united megastates with consensus of the people over smaller independent socialist republics. The less borders between workers, the better.
Stuff like this makes me more interested now in the reactions of non-socialist peripheral states, some of which can perhaps be made to be friendly to the UAR. Even states which are technically US-aligned (ROK, ROC, the Philippines) have the potential to have working relationships which aren't completely antagonistic.
I mean you have to remember convincing them to become a democracy is as hard at is. This China unlike TNO doesn't exactly have the same respect for the UAR the People's Union of China had. It was the 1990s when they were pushing for a democracy, in the 2000s it's not dead but it's very suppressed.
You thought that an African country would join in with the UAR squad? I think the only country I can think with a strong leftist movement is South Africa.
CPS history with Pan-Asianism is going to give us a lot of pain once that part of the world goes Red isn't it? There is probably going to be a lot of backlash for a while against any idea of an East Asian Socialist Republic or something like that.
You thought that an African country would join in with the UAR squad? I think the only country I can think with a strong leftist movement is South Africa.
The former Soviet-aligned Marxist-Leninist states of Angola and Mozambique are a possibility, even if they have liberalized substantially and the MPLA and FRELIMO have long since degenerated into 21st Century Social Democrats. It's only been about 15 years ago when the hope for African Socialism and true independence was still alight if fading.
You thought that an African country would join in with the UAR squad? I think the only country I can think with a strong leftist movement is South Africa.
CPS history with Pan-Asianism is going to give us a lot of pain once that part of the world goes Red isn't it? There is probably going to be a lot of backlash for a while against any idea of an East Asian Socialist Republic or something like that.
Just it's European allies? One would figure that given that the LM's COMINTERN got ICBM capability in the 1980s, there'd be ICBM silo/TEL fields in the Saharan and Arabian desert and SSBN ports along the Algerian Atlantic Coast. So the US would very well be staring down a nuclear threat to it's very homeland yet again. In fact, given the post-Cold War nuclear disarmament trends (which OTL have only JUST started being reversed in the last year) and depending on how things go in the next 5YP vote over in TLM quest and what proportion of the Cominterns arsenal is stationed where, the UAR may actually even outweigh the US in deliverable strategic warheads.
Ironically, the UAR is also used to being part of a Rules Based International Order, with the CDN and CPS being more the "China/Russia-level Rogue States" of the TLM world by the 1990s, though there are significant differences of course (like the UAR actually being significantly more consistent in following the rules of the rules-based order it had participated in building).
Also:
For its part the DPRK was openly friendly to the Arab state, being the third nation to recognize it (South Africa being the second),
That said, the US suddenly has a VERY good reason to try and play sweet with South Africa. If they flip, then between that, the UAR's dominance of the Red Sea, and Vietnam/Laos American naval power in the Indian Ocean might not just be challenged, but actually imperiled. That IMF deal may suddenly be up for renegotiation. Of course, given the bull-in-China shop incompetence of the kinda Neocon diplomacy that dominated the Bush Administration and the lingering systemic racism in the US*, better-than-even odds they totally fuck it up.
*Which, while it will take the UAR a fair bit of squinting to eventually see it after being so used to dealing with the mask-off racism of TLM America, it will become recognizable after enough study. Especially given the multiple allusions that the ongoing, early, and more severe economic crisis is going to drastically accelerate the 2010s far-right revival.
"And let me tell you all that was nothing compared to the building something functional from CAR's charred corpse, now that made Iberia look like a cakewalk"
"What the hell happened to the Centeral African Republic"
Also the fact that the order in question was founded by several powers that needed each other and no one was powerful enough to dictate things to the others.
And overtimes the system became too invaluable to not participate in.
