Well the Nuclear Taboo got broken, well to some degree anyway. Wonder how the rest of the world feels about the British and the Italians helping contribute to Tactical Nuclear Strikes suddenly becoming something people have to legitimately worry for.
Well this is a wonderful introduction to the world of what the UAR can do. I can't wait to see the fall out. The next UN meeting is going to be very interesting
Kind of makes me wonder if the Royal Navy being disintegrated would be a big enough fiasco that it prematurely ends the Blair government and kills New Labour as a political force.
Another thing to note that I haven't seen discussed in the thread yet. The Comintern, and by extension the UAR, are rather progressive and radical in regards to a lot of areas. Examples of this include: Being ultra-radical in feminism and treating domestic labor as labor with the necessary rights, benefits, and protections afforded to it, amongst other equally radical policies. Full legal recognition and state support towards Gender, Sexual, and Romantic Minorities. Going ultra-radical in regards to indigenous rights inside and outside the Comintern. Being ultra-radical when it comes to the environment. Having basically open borders. and so on.
And this was on 1975. I am sure the UAR and the Comintern has only grown more radical since then. Honestly seeing how OTL 2002 world reacts to these particular facts is the thing is something I am deeply enthusiastically eager to see.
Its gonna be a very interesting times for various social movements across the globe, since now rather than pure theoreticals some of them actually have a model IRL they can strive to emulate and/or be inspired by; though its not necessary that these movements would be keen on socialism or the even the UAR itself, and of course most of the UAR's ultra-radical policies will be used as points against them too
"Look at the damn commies indoctrinating kids from birth in these so-called creches while mothers are brainwashed into abandoning motherhood and instead working themselves ragged all day".
"UAR citizens are forced to slave away to pay welfare for lazy immigrants"
"Boys and teens in the UAR have no dating life because girls are encouraged to be worker drones instead"
And of course it should be noted that the UAR's existence doesn't mean the Overton window shifts left in the US and Europe.
We talk a lot about how Neo-Nazis and white supremacists would be emboldened by what went on in TNO/TLM (despite Nazis and fascists failing gloriously with every possible advantage at their fingertips and America being demonstrably kneecapped by its racist policies) but I worry more about how many OTL communists will get accelerationist brainworms mixed in with faux-spiritualism and millenarianism. Posadas' scribbles will look downright grounded next to what will come later.
Say guys won't the UAR in the long future term make a world government with other communist nations as the world nations freak out that a united earth is becoming possible
Say guys won't the UAR in the long future term make a world government with other communist nations as the world nations freak out that a united earth is becoming possible
I wonder if the association between queerness and communism is going to give enough momentum to pass the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.
I understand that Obama made it so 9/11 and the Bush Regime never happened, but this is the decade where "nuke their ass and take their gas" was the polite chant and New Atheism was promoted because it allowed a new rationale for race war.
The appearance of the UAR does also make me wonder if there will be major power struggles in a lot of social democratic parties. Most social democratic parties in the First World or in the orbit of the First World are pivoting towards Third Way neo-liberalism. I think the UAR could have the effect of scaring the bourgeoisie into once again making concessions to labour to appease their working classes.
The political destruction of Tony Blair might see a more left-wing faction of Labour gain greater prominence (though someone like Corbyn would probably be too much). There could also be struggles in countries that aren't exactly in the Imperial Core, like Greece, where PASOK and the KKE still hold a majority of seats in the Greek legislature.
I just realized - Yugoslavs in the UAR are going to be horrified when they learn about the Balkans. This is basically the world where their homeland went Italy-lite under an ostensibly communist government that just fanned the flames of racial and class tension. The entire concept of 'Yugoslavia' has been thrown in the trash, which will be especially weird for any younger people who were on vacation at the time. Ironically, I imagine the genocides would be the least shocking given TLM's history of dealing with those.
The appearance of the UAR does also make me wonder if there will be major power struggles in a lot of social democratic parties. Most social democratic parties in the First World or in the orbit of the First World are pivoting towards Third Way neo-liberalism. I think the UAR could have the effect of scaring the bourgeoisie into once again making concessions to labour to appease their working classes.
The political destruction of Tony Blair might see a more left-wing faction of Labour gain greater prominence (though someone like Corbyn would probably be too much). There could also be struggles in countries that aren't exactly in the Imperial Core, like Greece, where PASOK and the KKE still hold a majority of seats in the Greek legislature.
There being a shift in leftist politics is a given considering a successful leftist superstate just appeared that can serve as an example to follow or to learn from. Along with a lot of literature from a more successful Comintern. The bourgeoisie making concessions is uncertain towards me. Considering that the prevailing ideology is still neoliberalism and the fact that state capacity to do stuff has been gutted and so would take time to rebuild, if it were to be rebuilt at all.
Another way the Labour situation could end up that was mentioned in the discord is basically the party schisming. With a right-Labour and a left-Labour, although it could just be another party struggle. Related to that is the fact that Leftist Parties are going to have a massive boost in terms of funding, personell, and materiel throughout the world courtesy of the Rump Comintern and the UAR. Something that will have interesting effects and second-order consequences.
He's far too busy giving his alternate-self disturbed side-eye for the pretty much everything, and realizing that it is in fact he that was the best Ghaddafi of all worlds. This is a new era of self-critique.
Unironically praise Stalin due to USSR being able to survive the Nazi Invasion?
Mao's Cultural Revolution being a desperate last stand against encroaching Capitalism rotting communism from the inside?
Bush being like his dad from TLM's Iceland Nuking and being a stark raving warmonger and massive asshole?
There's probably going to be a return to 1950s-1980s levels of fuckery in Latin American politics by the USA. In 2002, the EZLN has established itself in Chiapas and the FARC/ELN insurgency still has a sizeable presence in Colombia. The former is largely confined to the most rural areas of southern Mexico and the latter I think is participating in peace talks with the Colombian government. The existence of the UAR might cause the USA to take a much more proactive approach to dealing with them.
Even electoralist movements might not be safe. Lula's social democracy might be seen with a more critical eye by Washington and there may be more of an effort to strangle the MAS-IPSP before it can take power in Bolivia.
EDIT: When it comes to international relations with other nominal socialist states, the UAR/Comintern might have more of a problem with China than North Korea. IIRC, China was generally supportive of the Nepalese monarchy against the Maoist insurgency and cut off support for the NPA insurgency in the Philippines. That could cause friction if the UAR was to actively support the leftist insurgents in either of those countries.
There being a shift in leftist politics is a given considering a successful leftist superstate just appeared that can serve as an example to follow or to learn from. Along with a lot of literature from a more successful Comintern. The bourgeoisie making concessions is uncertain towards me. Considering that the prevailing ideology is still neoliberalism and the fact that state capacity to do stuff has been gutted and so would take time to rebuild, if it were to be rebuilt at all.
The state apparatus (politically) doesn't have to be rebuilt for the bourgeoisie and their political servants to pivot towards concessions and public reinvestment (be it infrastructure or social services). In America's case, we saw it under Obama's term and, currently, under Biden's.
However, just as with the programs and initiatives that were implemented in those terms (RomneyObamacare and BBB being among the most well-known), it's going to be very much hampered by the neoliberal model where private actors need a big cut of whatever's going on. Public-private partnerships/contracts are standard and any talk of the US government doing something that isn't also directly benefiting national business (big or "small") is blasphemy.
It will definitely be clumsier and messier than the UAR's model but it will get enough done that people still wedded towards 21st Century Liberalism will still cling to their faith in the system as opposed to turning into reds overnight. After all, how many times have we heard "the system isn't perfect but at least we have our freedom unlike the poor souls of [Spooky, Scary Totalitarian Country]"?
The Mediterranean crisis was an event that could only happen due to a mixture of unprecedented events, European political insecurity, and a lack of trusted communication between all parties.
"Life is a problem of communication.Think of how many women there are out there who would like to go to bed with me, but don't know it."
-Silvio Berlusconi
The worst part of this timeline is knowing that even with the UAR, at this time of the U.S. Left. There's no way for any of these NATO countries to achieve socialism unlike in TLM. Where we know that we have exile communities to take over once the CDN collapses. Here the UAR has to start at the very beginning just to achieve even a modicum of pro-UAR socialism. Hopefully we can at least see some part of the International Left grow from this experience. That there would be at least some hope from the European or European-majority nations.
There's probably going to be a return to 1950s-1980s levels of fuckery in Latin American politics by the USA. In 2002, the EZLN has established itself in Chiapas and the FARC/ELN insurgency still has a sizeable presence in Colombia. The former is largely confined to the most rural areas of southern Mexico and the latter I think is participating in peace talks with the Colombian government. The existence of the UAR might cause the USA to take a much more proactive approach to dealing with them.
I think the USA might focus harder on other oil producing countries imo.
Given a lot of Oil is in communist hands they may focus on Securing alternative sources of Oil.
"Life is a problem of communication.Think of how many women there are out there who would like to go to bed with me, but don't know it."
-Silvio Berlusconi
The worst part of this timeline is knowing that even with the UAR, at this time of the U.S. Left. There's no way for any of these NATO countries to achieve socialism unlike in TLM. Where we know that we have exile communities to take over once the CDN collapses. Here the UAR has to start at the very beginning just to achieve even a modicum of pro-UAR socialism. Hopefully we can at least see some part of the International Left grow from this experience. That there would be at least some hope from the European or European-majority nations.
Given how it went since the early 2000s, I'm honestly not sure we could do worse in rebuilding the left. Honestly the bigger barriers would probably be a return to having to worry about foreign-agent accusations (real or imagined) on our part and/or residual bitterness about Americans mostly all being depraved baby-eaters back in the 70s and 80s on theirs.
Given how it went since the early 2000s, I'm honestly not sure we could do worse in rebuilding the left. Honestly the bigger barriers would probably be a return to having to worry about foreign-agent accusations (real or imagined) on our part and/or residual bitterness about Americans mostly all being depraved baby-eaters back in the 70s and 80s on theirs.
The state apparatus (politically) doesn't have to be rebuilt for the bourgeoisie and their political servants to pivot towards concessions and public reinvestment (be it infrastructure or social services). In America's case, we saw it under Obama's term and, currently, under Biden's.
However, just as with the programs and initiatives that were implemented in those terms (RomneyObamacare and BBB being among the most well-known), it's going to be very much hampered by the neoliberal model where private actors need a big cut of whatever's going on. Public-private partnerships/contracts are standard and any talk of the US government doing something that isn't also directly benefiting national business (big or "small") is blasphemy.
It will definitely be clumsier and messier than the UAR's model but it will get enough done that people still wedded towards 21st Century Liberalism will still cling to their faith in the system as opposed to turning into reds overnight. After all, how many times have we heard "the system isn't perfect but at least we have our freedom unlike the poor souls of [Spooky, Scary Totalitarian Country]"?
I still have some hope after 20-22 years of survival in this new world. It's going to be hard to use bigotry/imagined dystopian government/"capitalist individualism superior model"/"our superior work ethic/religion" as an explanation for how the imagined superiority of NATO is to the UAR justifies their hostility. The International Left can be rebuilt, as it was during the TLM. It will just take an extremely long time.
Yeah maybe we can the UAR help Hugo Chavez actually achieve socialism rather than just be a wannabe left wing nationalist who's good at distributing that oil money. It can be started by warning him of the coup, and offering him lots of help. Also starting acting as a patron to Cuba and the Nicaraguans.
"Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't."― Margaret Thatcher
It should have been a surefire thing.
For the British, Operation Hospitaller was meant to strike a blow that would demonstrate Britain's true might to the whole world and cement its position in the Pax-Americana while stripping the veil from the UAR and letting the world see it for what it truly was.
For the Italians, it was meant to bring order to the utter chaos of the Wamda and establish a new Mediterranean status quo before the situation deteriorated further.
For Silvio Berlusconi, it was an opportunity to demonstrate to everyone the veracity of his claims of being an equal to Jesus Christ, possessing an absurdly large brain, and to being cursed to win all the time.
For Tony Blair, it was his chance to secure his place in British history as one of its most memorable and important figures, whose actions would be taught and studied for generations afterward as an example for all future British politicians and leaders.
And indeed Operation Hospitaller achieved all of these things, just not in a way any of these parties wanted.
Disregarding Arab warnings, a British naval task force would brazenly enter the Arabian waters in their dash towards Malta, composed of the best ships the Royal Navy could field and most of the UK's remaining seafaring might, its commanders believing this would be their chance at quick and easy glory in the name of Queen and Country.
One moment the British fleet was sailing gloriously to war and one moment and a flash later it was simply no more as the Arab republic let the nuclear genie out of the bottle for the first time in its new home world since WW2.
Where there once was a flotilla there was now a scene that would not be out of place in a description of Johnam, as men were vaporized in an instant while hot shrapnel and boiling water saturated the aid, while others were cooked alive as their ship hulls became atomic furnaces in an instant.
Those unfortunate enough to still be alive on partially intact ships would be exposed to amounts of radiation that the human body was never meant to withstand and died slow painful agonizing deaths.
Their Italian counterparts would suffer a fate no kinder the second they entered UAR waters as their best and brightest of the Marina Militare were pulverized in atomic fire and their ships reduced to irradiated scraps descending to the depths of Mare Nostrum, becoming just a collection of shipwrecks in a sea already full of them.
Their illustrious liberation of Sicily had ended without them ever setting foot on the island, the Italian naval forces having opted to not strike directly across Messina in fear of the UAR inflicting damage on the Italian mainland during the fighting, instead taking a longer route to attack Palmero directly.
Though the radioactive fallout from the tactical nukes would disperse relatively quickly, their political fallout would reshape the world and influence global politics for years to come.
Operation Hospitaller was an unmitigated disaster for the Anglo-Italians, in one fell swoop they had lost some of their best naval assets while inflicting no losses on the enemy, a failure of such magnitude that it could not be hidden or covered up.
The governments in Rome and London had revealed their full plans to the world shortly before the nuclear strikes, posing them as liberating European lands from communist dictatorship and restoring unrestricted access to the Mediterranean Sea.
The revelation was already controversial at the time, even to the normally intervention-happy George Bush but when news started trickling in of what transpired since then a political maelstrom would be unleashed across the entirety of NATO.
The armed forces of Italy and Britain were thrown into utter chaos by the sudden disappearance of so many vital assets, and when news reached the civilian population the previous tensions and protests turned positively apocalyptic.
In Rome, Berlusconi had made the worst mistake any right-wing leader could make, he had shown himself weak and incompetent. Italy's largest cities soon became hotbeds of chaos as protestors and people from across the entire political spectrum came out in droves to express their anger, hate, and fear in the most loud and destructive ways possible while the police struggled to maintain some semblance of order.
The Italian parliament itself looked as if it would erupt into open conflict at any moment as the sheer scope of the situation overwhelmed it, blame scorn, and insults being thrown at and by all sides even as the government scrambled to respond, the only thing everyone agreeing on was that Berlusconi was the main culprit behind this catastrophe, and the man who thought himself equal to Napoleon was only kept in power for as long as it took for an agreeable replacement to be found.
His British counterpart fared little better.
Tony Blair had hoped to become the next Thatcher, with Malta as his Falklands War, but now he found himself in the middle of a Suez Crisis and he was Eden reborn, only there were no tactical victories to show for it or American-Soviet interference to blame.
Blair was already controversial for his abandoning of Labor principles in favor of adopting Tory agendas and programs as well as his Warhawk tendencies in the name of spreading democracy across the world only to become a political pariah overnight, facing outrage, rage, and hatred from all sides of the spectrum.
His critics from the left were only vindicated and emboldened by his failure, his former supporters in the party now found his person as radioactive as the bombs themselves and distanced themselves from his failures even as they agreed with the spirit of what he sought to achieve. The Tories of course were happy to leap at the chance to crush their rival, and a vote of no confidence was all but certain now.
Blair would also receive a wrathful frenzied call from his White House counterpart, President Bush unleashing one of the most ear-blistering rants in human history as his mind attempted to make sense of the geopolitical shitstorm Whitehall had just unleashed and what had possessed the Europeans to launch an attack on a possibly nuclear state on their own.
When the British people learned about what transpired, terror and panic spread across the isles like wildfire, and it wasn't long before they turned to hate and rage, especially when news came of Arab/Comintern naval groups skirting dangerously close to European waters.
The StWC movement was galvanized as the peace advocates were vindicated beyond their wildest nightmares but their surge was minute compared to the rampages of recently radicalized right-wing hooligans across the nation, who assaulted minority communities with no mercy or hesitation, leaving dozens dead and hundreds injured. The economic crisis that Blair hoped to get ahead of was now made infinitely worse as war panic only served to worsen its effects and all but ensure the United Kingdom was looking down the possibility of utter economic ruin.
All the while the US moved quickly in an attempt to salvage the situation and halt escalation, the neoconservative Bush administration finding itself in the damned awkward position of having to be the peacemaker and mediator for once (even the neocons had little desire for a world of ashes), and with an Islamic communist government no less, Washington would even reach out to Beijing to join talks in an attempt to mollify the Arabs, even as the CPC struggled to make sense of what was going on in the other side of Asia.
Luckily for a world that spent 36 hours facing the renewed prospect of a Global Nuclear Holocaust, Cairo was more than willing to negotiate; it had little desire to escalate itself with its economy in chaos from the displacement and already having to put out many fires on the domestic front, and of course, the communists too were keen on not turning the world into a glowing lifeless rock.
The UAR has other reasons to be in a bargaining mood, it had displayed its power on the world stage with no losses and maintained its hold over the Mediterranean, and the attempted invasions have had the effect of shaking the UAR's population from its state of stupor, shock and depression from its severing from its global comrades as they were given purpose and reminded of the dangers that lay in this world, allowing survival instincts to kick in.
Of course, the United Arab Republic would be surprised when the capitalist bloc invited it to negotiate an end to the fighting and discuss peace terms, such gestures of diplomacy between various blocs being an almost extinct species back home.
Nonetheless, the socialist republic wasted no time in assembling a team of diplomats and negotiators for the task as the world looked with both fear and curiosity at the first moves in what was certain to be the next Cold War.
But things were hardly cool for Tony Blair and Silvio Berlusconi, whose ambitions and manias had driven them to try and reach the sun like Icarus only for their wings to burn….
Their Italian counterparts would suffer a fate no kinder the second they entered UAR waters as their best and brightest of the Marina Militare were pulverized in atomic fire and their ships reduced to irradiated scraps descending to the depths of Mare Nostrum, becoming just a collection of shipwrecks in a sea already full of them.
Their illustrious liberation of Sicily had ended without them ever setting foot on the island, the Italian naval forces having opted to not strike directly across Messina in fear of the UAR inflicting damage on the Italian mainland during the fighting, instead taking a longer route to attack Palmero directly.
When the British people learned about what transpired, terror and panic spread across the isles like wildfire, and it wasn't long before they turned to hate and rage, especially when news came of Arab/Comintern naval groups skirting dangerously close to European waters.
The StWC movement was galvanized as the peace advocates were vindicated beyond their wildest nightmares but their surge was minute compared to the rampages of recently radicalized right-wing hooligans across the nation, who assaulted minority communities with no mercy or hesitation, leaving dozens dead and hundreds injured. The economic crisis that Blair hoped to get ahead of was now made infinitely worse as war panic only served to worsen its effects and all but ensure the United Kingdom was looking down the possibility of utter economic ruin.
Nothing shocks the stock market like "the nation is in riots, the government just blew up its intervention, and now the riots are worse." No sane broker would back anything with the UK right now, and every big business is asking what their exposure to the meltdown is.
The UAR has other reasons to be in a bargaining mood, it had displayed its power on the world stage with no losses and maintained its hold over the Mediterranean, and the attempted invasions have had the effect of shaking the UAR's population from its state of stupor, shock and depression from its severing from its global comrades as they were given purpose and reminded of the dangers that lay in this world, allowing survival instincts to kick in.
Of course, the United Arab Republic would be surprised when the capitalist bloc invited it to negotiate an end to the fighting and discuss peace terms, such gestures of diplomacy between various blocs being an almost extinct species back home.
Without the stick of military intervention to enforce the rules-based international order and the economic sanctions toolbox not spoiled up yet, I think the UAR is going to be pleasantly surprised what the Capitalists are willing to let them get away with.
