- Location
- Northish
Welp time to let the genie out of the bottle, the capitalist world is going to need some new pants.
History Strikes Back (TNO/TLM ISOT into OTL)
- Thread starter StarMaker764
- Start date
- Timeline Post-1900 Supernatural
-
- Tags
- tno isot (isekai)
Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
If we're talking the "Civil Service" career government part of the UK, losing the Suez would be an utterly unthinkable blow that requires resolving for both British pride and global economic status.
Oh, Ah. So the rationale for Tony Blair going to war is "We are being 2024 Topical".
That's going to look problematic in hindsight.
The French military is saying "fuck no" because they just watched a large majority of their deployments disappear into thin air, and get replaced by a people that hate them even more. They've already accepted the line for a nuclear warning shot is moved closer to France.
Spain straight-up doesn't have the military to do anything expeditionary like this.
Gaddafi: "I now understand what the Swedish and Americans felt when they carved a line ahead of our advance with atomic bombs.
I do not wish to go back to the other side of that equation."
This is 2001-2002 UK. They mainly rely on the US for satellite intelligence in most areas of the world, because Skynet is a communication system, not a spy system*. Hell, the system only got fully online in 2001 due to having to rely on American Delta II and French Ariane 4 launchers and sharing deployment times with other customers. The UK would have had to ask the CIA what they saw, and given the domestic crisis, the logic for Tony Blair is "we don't have time". Hell, he didn't even mention something in the UN, that's his whole big thing, he loved the UN as a tool for international western military dick-waving.
*Ignore what some old clout-chaser conspiracy theorist on an ancient website tells you about Zircon, it never existed as anything beyond a sting operation.
- Location
- The Golden State
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Soon they would learn the meaning of "fuck around and find out"
- Location
- Auckland
My prediction was right. Now all we need to see is if NATO or the US escalate this.
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
So Italy and Great Britain are getting glassed? Of course, then the rest of NATO gets dragged in and most of it probably meets the same fate?
Depending on the outcome they might not really have a choice.
Depending on the outcome they might not really have a choice.
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pheonix89
Wants to be Seven Of Nine
- Location
- North American Plaguelands
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Nope. Comintern nuclear doctrine is deleting invaders with tac nukes.
No MAD in The Long March.
Somehow I believe when we get to the 2020s the far left will be fully influence by the UAR and be seen as the one that can change America because they can't fix themselves
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Doubt it, that wouldn't match the Comintern's established nuclear policy, and would likely result in a general nuclear exchange - there wouldn't be much of a timeline left to write.
The UAR is probably doing tactical nuclear strikes on the invading fleets (as per the Comintern's established policy towards invading forces in the quest The Long March).
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
So they don't/wouldn't escalate to nuclear annihilation in response, even if it does turn into a nuclear exchange?
IIRC GB is a nuclear power in their own right.
Is that a lack of inclination to do so or a legal prohibition against doing so?
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- Location
- Third planet from the star named Sol
- Pronouns
- He/They
I'm putting money on the UAR releasing a militant, coldly furious statement to the UN or the world at large, stating that it is about to launch a tactical nuclear strike for specific reasons (to head off any potential general nuclear Armageddon). And it will also deliver some blistering insults that the world will largely not get until after the fact, when it gets to better understand Long March history.
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Perhaps, but at that point Great Britain also has their own nuclear arsenal, and *they* might decide to go hot in response.
- Pronouns
- She/Her
For reasons of 'this timeline isn't going to end after 7 posts', probably not.
- Pronouns
- He/She/They
Even putting aside the "no timeline left to write" issue, I don't really think Blair is quite that crazy?
At the end of the day they're invading the territory of a nuclear power and they know it (they didn't believe it before, but it's obviously true now). I doubt Blair's gov would end the world over lost naval forces, esp. given that this is an unsurprising response for a nuclear-armed state.
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I do like how reasonable this whole thing unfolded, as reasonable as one can be in the circumstances. Italy "needed" to get back Sicily and Britain wanted Malta to look strong. It's very funny that their perspective was to seize the islands to essentially get a strong negotiating position and do a little blusterous show of force before maybe withdrawing or establishing diplomatic relations afterwards. The UAR is big, but if you don't know the full story, perhaps one could imagine it has a paper tiger, propped up by unsusual circumstances in another world and that it was in fact overstretched or bloated and not able to effectively respond to British and Italian aggression.
While from the UAR's point of view, enemy occupations are almost always, without fails, pogroms. Italian and British soldiers invading Malta and Sicily isn't merely a military action, but a prelude to wholesale genocide. It also lets them flex their muscles in a dramatic way to establish international clout and precedent. The UAR could have fended off the attack conventionally. It had the means to do so, but as the 1984 Crisis taught, in a situation where shit's gone so tits up that it's unclear if a conventional response is enough, deploy a tactical nuke.
Britain could indeed escalate with a nuclear strike of its own, but it won't. Nobody expected the bomb to be pulled out. Thatcher considered nuking Argentina's fleet or air bases too during the Falkland's War, so that taboo was nearly broken in real life. It should also be remembered that most people, even politicians and soldiers in charge of nuclear weapons, do not in fact want to end the world. This was clearly a short ranged missile nuclear strike, so on radar it'd appear to be an anti-ship missile until the payload detonated. It's not followed up by dozens or hundreds of missiles detected in atmosphere on a global trajectory.
It's now on Britain and NATO to respond. They won't be happy, but following it up by ending the world isn't something most people want to do, unless they feel like the UAR's about to end it first. The UAR issuing a statement to clarify that its policy is tactical strikes on enemy invasions isn't invalid because that's literally France's policy. Hell, the UAR literally warned them. It said it had nuclear weapons and would use them in its defense. Britain and Italy thought it was a bluff and got fucked in the process.
While from the UAR's point of view, enemy occupations are almost always, without fails, pogroms. Italian and British soldiers invading Malta and Sicily isn't merely a military action, but a prelude to wholesale genocide. It also lets them flex their muscles in a dramatic way to establish international clout and precedent. The UAR could have fended off the attack conventionally. It had the means to do so, but as the 1984 Crisis taught, in a situation where shit's gone so tits up that it's unclear if a conventional response is enough, deploy a tactical nuke.
Britain could indeed escalate with a nuclear strike of its own, but it won't. Nobody expected the bomb to be pulled out. Thatcher considered nuking Argentina's fleet or air bases too during the Falkland's War, so that taboo was nearly broken in real life. It should also be remembered that most people, even politicians and soldiers in charge of nuclear weapons, do not in fact want to end the world. This was clearly a short ranged missile nuclear strike, so on radar it'd appear to be an anti-ship missile until the payload detonated. It's not followed up by dozens or hundreds of missiles detected in atmosphere on a global trajectory.
It's now on Britain and NATO to respond. They won't be happy, but following it up by ending the world isn't something most people want to do, unless they feel like the UAR's about to end it first. The UAR issuing a statement to clarify that its policy is tactical strikes on enemy invasions isn't invalid because that's literally France's policy. Hell, the UAR literally warned them. It said it had nuclear weapons and would use them in its defense. Britain and Italy thought it was a bluff and got fucked in the process.
Spylobster
Centrist-Malenyevist
Kind of makes me wonder if the Royal Navy being disintegrated would be a big enough fiasco that it prematurely ends the Blair government and kills New Labour as a political force.
- Location
- Third planet from the star named Sol
- Pronouns
- He/They
While I don't know about New Labour, I think it will kill Blair's government. On top of all the instability and economic turmoil that's coming in, he just humiliated their country on the world stage and got a lot of their countrymen killed. Coming off the heels of the rightward turn he made, he'd need a miracle to get the political class to forgive him, never mind the general public.
Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
The UK's nuclear arsenal are located on four Vanguard Submarines with locally produced warheads mated to American Trident missiles. The UK disabled its tactical bomb system four years ago ITTL. The Vanguards fall into the same Cold War category of never being made for anything other than second-strike MAD.
The UK has no response between total conventional war and throwing 128 nuclear warheads at the UAR.
Nope. The whole thing is "unknown warships" and there being no international organization to resolve or even speak a protest in The Long March. No Talk. Only Kill.
Blair falls for Bush to walk.
- Location
- Third planet from the star named Sol
- Pronouns
- He/They
Right, fair point. Still, I can't see the UAR not releasing some kind of statement, even if it's just a general 'fuck you.' Because PR is a thing and they'll want to, at the very least, rally their people and make sure they know what is going on.
Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
Oh yeah, there'll be diplomatic statements and TV broadcasts.
Just after the blast wave.
- Location
- Philippines
The World would probably blame them because of Oil and the fact that they won't have much teeth left after this due to their "Navy" being guttered.
It sorta exists for the Big Powers TLM had the American Intervention Issue on Brazil stopped by threat of Armageddon. Its not nearly as internalized as OTL.
He's Screwed and a convenient Scapegoat.
They would put out a statement but they might not have much of a faith on the whole UN thing.
FiskenIsFishy
Cyber-blanquism enjoyer
- Location
- East Asian Federation
- Pronouns
- Any/All
CAM ON INGERLAND
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Correct. Which is rather alarming, depending on how hateful/vindictive the UK government/military is feeling after such a crushing defeat to their conventional forces.
Another thing to note that I haven't seen discussed in the thread yet. The Comintern, and by extension the UAR, are rather progressive and radical in regards to a lot of areas. Examples of this include: Being ultra-radical in feminism and treating domestic labor as labor with the necessary rights, benefits, and protections afforded to it, amongst other equally radical policies. Full legal recognition and state support towards Gender, Sexual, and Romantic Minorities. Going ultra-radical in regards to indigenous rights inside and outside the Comintern. Being ultra-radical when it comes to the environment. Having basically open borders. and so on.
And this was on 1975. I am sure the UAR and the Comintern has only grown more radical since then. Honestly seeing how OTL 2002 world reacts to these particular facts is the thing is something I am deeply enthusiastically eager to see.
And this was on 1975. I am sure the UAR and the Comintern has only grown more radical since then. Honestly seeing how OTL 2002 world reacts to these particular facts is the thing is something I am deeply enthusiastically eager to see.
- Location
- Umbara, Askonia System
Patrolling the Mojave almost makes you wish for a nuclear winter.
Raiho-kun
This Cycle's Second Biggest Communism Builder
We talk a lot about how Neo-Nazis and white supremacists would be emboldened by what went on in TNO/TLM (despite Nazis and fascists failing gloriously with every possible advantage at their fingertips and America being demonstrably kneecapped by its racist policies) but I worry more about how many OTL communists will get accelerationist brainworms mixed in with faux-spiritualism and millenarianism. Posadas' scribbles will look downright grounded next to what will come later.