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History Strikes Back (TNO/TLM ISOT into OTL)
- Thread starter StarMaker764
- Start date
- Timeline Post-1900 Supernatural
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- Tags
- tno isot (isekai)
The Death of Russia - TL
EDIT: The extended version of this timeline is now available on Amazon. The Death of Russia All is Well Extract from ‘A Continent of Fire’ by James Melfi Those heady days of 1989, 1991. We thought we’d escaped it. Escaped the third and final cataclysm of the Twentieth Century. True, we...
www.alternatehistory.com
- Location
- The observable universe
I am not touching any of that loser's TLs save for a mindless AI-written TLM curb stomp crossover which is about as much effort as it deserves
Thats entirely fair, I edited that bit
It is, except done by the Japanese rather than domestic actors.
And they do.
yo what with the hate
WaltzinBrunhilda
She who remembers
- Location
- The Soviet Socialist Republic in lutruwita
- Pronouns
- She/Her
All three of his TL's are what could be charitably be described as rabidly anti-communist with a worrying trend towards whitewashing the far-right (The Footprint of Mussolini in particular), and if one were being more cynical as a reactionary rant attacking anything vaguely left-wing or an enemy of America written entirely with one hand.
Bro literally thinks that suslov is crazier than mussolini (conpulsive and obsesed with orthodoxy yes, but batshit crazy?)
I'd say more of him attacking any member of the Western block if we're being general about it, but yeah. That guy maybe (possibly idk him) a normal person in real life, but his political views are crazy. Like all his timelines are borderline dystopian.
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Raiho-kun
This Cycle's Second Biggest Communism Builder
By this point, the Japanese Communists' overall platform has been whittled down to social democratic activism, with the rationale being that it has to make the most of operating in what is essentially a one-party state dominated by the LDP. With that in mind, the JCP might either experience a leftward push in direction and leadership (still reminaining a big tent party) or a total split. The UAR (and displaced Asian community living within) might see the JCP's pacifism as well-intentioned at least but sharply criticize what they see as "meekness" and complacency.
On the other hand, there's now a strong, politically-educated socialist core among the ~70% larger Jewish population in the UAR; a population which isn't emigrating en masse from the new "anti-semitic prison-of-nations" to "democracies" like many Jewish Soviets did. They're there to say "your solace in Zionism was misplaced, with or without the warp. The only way to feel safe at this point is to smash the fundamental bedrock of anti-semitism worldwide: class society". This will be reinforced by the anti-semitism which will be on the rise from the growing if still marginal Far Right in coming years.
Older diaspora (of the majority which are supportive of Israel) are more likely to be very hostile and view the UAR and new Comintern as another opponent for the Jewish people to overcome like the Soviets and Warsaw Pact before them (whose "inevitable" collapse will pave the way to a new Israel), but there will be a reckoning among some religious Jews who try to process this and come away with a different conclusion (both those who opposed Israel from the start as heretical and feel vindicated or supported Israel and feel that God has punished their hubris). Then there are the younger generations who, much like the rest of the Western population, are ripe for outreach and receptive to their counterparts' agitation.
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Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
The closest thing to what the UAR would consider "sufficiently revolutionary" or something like that was the 1959-60 Anpo protests. And while the protestors viewed themselves as successfully getting the government to move away from old-style authoritarian rule, their goal was ultimately to embrace a future of peace and stability. Something that the ruling party pretty much never touched, although there were prior harbingers, until the 2010s with the leadership of Shinzo Abe.
Cut to 2000-2001 circa the ISOT, and the Prime Minister is Shinzo Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. The Lost Decade of stagnation has become something of a future prospect, and if we assume the economic shock catapulted the world into the 2020s, then the LDP government probably kept the ship of state steady and pretty much level. He's pretty urban and populist, but brought in the neoliberal school of economics in response to the 90s. His big agenda item around this time was making the budget creation process part of the Diet's responsibility to increase transparency and credibility, instead of the Ministry of Finance drawing one up based on the ruling party's policies and their own internal calculations. While he had his own controversial visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, the biggest relevant point of foreign policy is his support for interventionism. The JSDF mission to Iraq, long after significant combat operations had ended, was small and only noncombative. But given the context of Japan, that combined with his work to make the SDF a full Ministry makes him locally hawkish, but internationally not all that remarkable. He is up for re-election in 2003, and with significantly more pushback from the general public about Japanese military action, I don't anticipate much to change from 2001 OTL. Significant radicalization of the LDP and its voters would have to happen in order to bring them towards the track of converting his friendship with Bush W into intentional action.
The LDP's legacy after Abe's assassination has been surprisingly hollow, and with so much happening so quickly, I don't expect them to push for anything remotely like their original plans.
How do you think this will effect the new age cults of japan?
Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
The movements are already under significant scrutiny after the 1995 sarin attacks. While certain groups form a distinct portion of the LDP's voting drive machine along with more mainstream Buddhist, Shinto, and Christian denominations, they are still regarded as suspicious by most Japanese. In fact, that's what motivated Abe's assassin and why both the general public and the LDP itself have mostly junked Abe's policies.
I don't think it'll ever be relevant to the story unless something similar occurs, but mainstream religion is enough to motivate certain parts of the LDP into hardcore anti-communism.
Precisely why it would be such an interesting uphill battle!Imagine DOR's world learning that those "extremist ideologies" can work,and work really well.
And I don't think he whitewashes the far-right-Mussolini and the Fascist bloc for example do many horrible things along with their good ones.Bad people can do good things,and good people can do bad things.
Lets not get side track with this, how about some theory crafthing?
What will be the first crisis we getting into?
- Location
- Third planet from the star named Sol
- Pronouns
- He/They
I think the first crisis is going to have something to do with either the Suez Canal or the straights of Gibraltar.
My thoughts are that, with the UAR heavily regulating who is and isn't allowed through, some companies are going to desperately want to try to finagle their way through the shortcut instead of resigning themselves to taking the long way around. And because a lot of C-Suites think they can do anything if they're clever enough, a whole ship of important/vital goods is going to be impounded halfway through once it's caught, leading to an international incident as the company's home nation (probably the USA) has to try and negotiate with the UAR.
My thoughts are that, with the UAR heavily regulating who is and isn't allowed through, some companies are going to desperately want to try to finagle their way through the shortcut instead of resigning themselves to taking the long way around. And because a lot of C-Suites think they can do anything if they're clever enough, a whole ship of important/vital goods is going to be impounded halfway through once it's caught, leading to an international incident as the company's home nation (probably the USA) has to try and negotiate with the UAR.
Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
That depends on what you consider a "Crisis". Are we just talking people start trying to get ahold of UAR diplomats? Peer/near peer conflict? Counter terror operations? Now, this whole thing is leading up to a revamped Operation Iraqi Freedom, make Baghdad Bob's propaganda into reality, take down W. for the whole War On Terror deal. So what advances the international order towards Bush getting the backing to pull the trigger? Also, has to use topical 2020s references.
I think the UAR is eventually going to make a big move. A big move. And given our map, I think the next step up is going to be the southern border has a ton of brushfire conflicts, Comintern forces moving in to stabilize nations and set up aide, but then the northern border gets hot. Iran is, per WOG, an easy stomp, but there's never just one enemy. With one part of the government already focused on the opposite end of the nation, A conflict of Iran and Türkiye both putting pressure on the UAR raises some brinkmanship questions.
They can't shoe-string forces opposing Iran, Iran may get a lead. They can't try to pull a Schlieffen and knock out Iran then Türkiye, not just because those never work but because Türkiye may or may not have NATO backing in this. With a three front problem, but nothing resembling their old wars, the UAR has to grapple with the same problems of the Korean War: That a doctrine that starts with nukes doesn't have much flexibility.
AKA: How you make the Syrian Conflict Much, Much Worse.
You can see the wreck of the Royal Navy on the floor of the Med from all the radiation. Ain't nobody touching their ocean. The corporations already got told no, and that's already after the lobbyists tried to get a meeting with the few UAR diplomats.
There's a reason we opened on that plotline.
Nervos Belli
Don't think this means you've won!
- Location
- Murica
Unlikely because even if the C-Suite think they can get away with, the insurance companies tend to be more sober-minded and objective about the risks. No one is going to insure a ship going through the territorial waters of a nuclear power without permission, and no one is going to send a major cargo ship anywhere without insurance.
obssesednuker
Commander of 10 Million Men
- Location
- In the Kremlin, activating Perimtr.
Uh... do you not count the attempted Anglo-Italian invasion of Sicily and Malta ending in nuclear fire to count as a "crisis"?
Ironically, reaching straight for the nukes in the Malta/Syria crisis was probably unnecessary, even if it was understandable enough reaction from a group used to reacting to such actions by peer opponents in that matter still getting their bearings in this new world. Against the post-Cold War drawdown British and Italian navies, a conventional AShM swarm would have probably done the job just as well given this isn't the systemically malformed Arab armies of OTL we are talking about.
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- Location
- Third planet from the star named Sol
- Pronouns
- He/They
I meant first crisis going forward, as in 'what happens next,' in response to the_gamer_rail's proposed question of 'what would the first crisis be?'
Maybe it's just cause I've grown up in the post 2008 housing crisis USA, and all of my adult life has been in the 'Techbros fuck around, don't find out,' baring the rare exception like Oceangate, but I don't see why that would stop someone from trying. I agree I don't think it's smart, reasonable, or a good way to actually save profits, but a part of my brain is insisting that someone's going to get the bright idea to give it a try.
While unessasary in the context of this attack, I think in the long run it was probably best for the nuclear cork to get popped earlier rather than later. This did precipitate the summit, and without the UAR's show of force here they'd come in to these or any talks with much different leverage.
So militarily unessasary on the face of it, but politically and diplomatically I can see it paying dividends long term.
Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
Oceangate's pretty much a key example of why Techbros do find out, just not in a ways that benefit the workers. Most of Silicon Valley and Vaporware funding comes from people who got kicked out of Wall Street after the real estate crash or saw their future as corporate fat cats go up in smoke from public backlash, and decided that if they can't get to the top in the system, they'll be the founders of a new system and get on top of it.
Tech-bros are New Money. The rest of corporate America, and especially when it comes to the Maritime shipping industry, are Old Money. And Old Money always wins. New Money is visible, performative, but they're insecure because it's all a show, none of it is real. Old Money snaps their fingers and boom, government international regulations shut them down. Capitalism, it also has infighting.
It's only when nation-state actors get involved that you find situations like what we're talking about. Before the Russian "Shadow Fleet" of tankers got publicity during the anti-sanctions campaign, The Usual International Suspects often use ships that aren't insured, don't have automatic tracking, don't follow international regulations for maintenance and crew training, and are otherwise not really acceptable for companies and states in the western sphere from using. Iran's exports mostly go through these illegal ships. Venezuela exports its oil on these illegal tanker fleets. North Korea's been doing the same for imports and weapon shipments over the last several decades. And these fleets trade with nations that still have pretty much open access with the global financial system, like Turkey, India, and China.
There is no "run the blockade" unless there is a destination and an agreement between two countries. If any ship is going to be secretly sailing through the Suez, it's going to be countries that have secret handshake deals with the UAR, or managed to set up a corruption network around the maritime trade sector. The UAR can easily be the clearinghouse of the "Two-tier Market".
- Location
- A haze of forgetfulness
- Pronouns
- She/Her
i wonder how the proposal to turn Alexandria into an international city in the latest TLM vote will do to HSB? Are the two timelines diverged from point of initial seperation? Or will HSB incorporate some of the changes from TLM as it moves forward?
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Interestingly, the use of nukes also means that the actual military power of the UAR is an unknown factor to the western powers. There's also the possibility that the use of nukes would lead them to assume that the UAR didn't trust its own military to actually win, when the reality is that the UAR literally fought a war over the whole of Africa and won before being one of the main forces behind the mass Comintern expansion in 84.
E-ntanglement (2003-2004)
- Location
- The observable universe
"Why am I not surprised that sexism was needed for this world to develop social media"—Comintern IT expert Xun Xiulan
"The Hell is a CommieMommy?"—new user DarkMao on the Risallah message boards
The UAR had weathered the shock of the Wamda relatively well but that did not mean that it was unscathed by the event.
However, the initial shock of the change and the near-immediate threat of the Anglo-Italian invasion somewhat blunted the initial shock and allowed the Middle Eastern people to focus on something else rather than suffering existential crises.
But once the invasion was halted and the economic crisis caused by the abrupt separation became manageable, the Republic's people had to mentally confront the fact that the world they knew and the comrades they fought, bled, laughed, and cried with were gone, possibly forever.
The year 2003 would see the UAR's suicide rate multiply by eight, with even higher rates among unwilling diaspora communities now forever cut from their homelands. Though the rate would steadily decline over time the baseline would remain overall higher than pre-Wamda rates for the next decade. Imams, bishops, commissars, and rabbis found themselves swarmed by people desperate for answers or at least comfort, worldviews were born aplenty all while the wheels of geopolitics turned as Alexandria and Cairo considered their next moves and their new allies; at the time undecided between courting the so-called first world or rallying the third.
But not all reactions to and effects of the Wamda were wholly negative or dramatic; for many the shock and pain of severance were soothed by the balm of discovery and curiosity, for after all they were now witness to a world and history that evolved without the taint of fascism working its way into every facet of the human collective soul for decades; and there were so many wonders and beauties that were erased from their world that could now be seen in their full glory; even if for the most part these marvels would have to be viewed from a screen.
Indeed for aside from its immediate allies in the burgeoning communist sphere and a few unexpectedly friendly nations, UAR citizens could not legally travel outside their borders as the socialist nation's system of lax travel laws, open borders, and minimal bureaucratic restrictions was rather incompatible with the Westphalian Byzantine nightmare of foreign travel, residencies, visas and permits that was the International system of the Yan'an Triumph timeline.
For the globetrotter population of the UAR (especially the Qitarat subculture), this was the equivalent of an eagle being ripped from the sky it flew through with abandon and thrown into a dark dank cage, and the travel hungry citizens of the UAR would attempt to satiate their wanderlust in multiple ways as Cairo worked to reorient to account for the new reality.
For some they would find a replacement in internal-travel and tourism as being cut off from the global made them appreciate the UAR's local landmarks and wonders more; others made do with traveling extensively to the countries they could enter legally within the neo-Comintern; the Chinese, Cuban, Venezuelan, and even North Korean tourist sectors finding themselves nearly overwhelmed by the amount of visitors; while a few would even venture across beyond into non-Comintern nation that were pioneers in establishing official ties and travel customs with the UAR, with Ireland (the first European nation to recognize the UAR and the 9th one overall) becoming an especially popular destination (though the native Irish were rather disturbed whenever tourists commented on how great it was that their Ireland wasn't filled with amputees or that its wild areas were still green, when they weren't insulted when the Long Marchers complained about the lack of high quality public transport and other areas YTT Ireland was found lacking compared to its doppelganger).
But for many citizens of the world's third most populous nation, the screens of their phones, TVs, and Cybervices* would be their chosen method of exploration; as thanks to growing links with Vietnam, China, and Laos, the ComNet was slowly becoming more intertwined with the Internet.
The Long March equivalent of the World Wide Web had survived its unexpected severance from its native world but it was a much reduced and crippled version of its former glory; being reduced to the UAR's local networks and servers; and a large portion of it being made up of "Shabbah Websites" or Phantom forums; those sites that had local backups but now would never be updated; remaining as electronic holdovers from a world now lost.
Even so the Wamda had happened in an opportune time when the communist and capitalist world computer networks and social media were just starting to take form; and slowly the two electronic titans would reach out to each other through dozens of user forums, blogs and other online communication mediums both legal and otherwise; allowing uncountable inhabitants of the world to have their first casual interactions with these strange new interlopers from another dimension.
The interactions were as varied and complicated as human interaction usually is. Political forums became heated battlegrounds and not just from the usual suspects as many of the Irwin Survival TL self-proclaimed leftists and post-leftists found themselves under attack from long march leftists while history blogs became the sites of glorious wars of posting, counter posting and long rants with things like the Clean Wehrmacht and Double Genocide running headlong into a world's worth of literature that proved them utterly wrong. Most infamous of course would be the work of the Hasabra department of the newly minted Exile State of Israel which would recruit hundreds of internet-savvy youths in its efforts to combat "antisemitic narratives" and maintain the image of the now departed Jewish state.
Not all interactions were negative or hostile though; as evidenced by the likes of the Tolkien fandom who bonded with their TLM counterparts over watching and analyzing their respective movie adaptations; artist and tech communities happily exchanged notes and their work while socialist Adult websites were taking the internet by storm as thousands began to bond over line over the many mundane likes and interests that make us human.
But by far it would be the nascent transgender and queer communities that were the fastest growing online link between the Communist and Western worlds, as Irwin survival communities found themselves benefiting and seeking out the knowledge and experience of their UAR counterparts, who had the blessing of developing in relative peace and openness in comparison. Advice, therapeutic techniques, and even ways of acquiring transition medication were exchanged freely and would be of immense help to many thousands across the globe; though in the medium term, this connection would serve to fuel a societal backlash against non-cis people and establish an association between transgender people and communism that would end up cementing the bipartisan convergence on transphobic and queerphobic policies in Western and Eurasian democracies starting from the late 2000s.
| unintended consequences |
*TLM term for PCs
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Always Late
Lacking in coffee, sleep, and brains
- Location
- Ohio
My depraved brain says Kick Ass 2's Mother Russia.
That's such an anime name. Like, I'm 50% certain it's a Digimon thing.
If we're assuming OTL pace, then this is going to remain a branch across the metaphorical iron curtain that's never quite cut off. But if used under 2024 logic, then social media is about to be strangled in its infancy by a Cold War 2.0 government intent on refusing any connection to communist "propaganda".
1. Hello recycled Internet Research Agency. Hope you don't get problematic.
2 Hasabra? Or Hasbra?
Wonder if there'll be a rehash of the 80s feminism arguments, especially with these website being owned or operated with unionized sex workers.
Nothing makes class solidarity like the fascist boot hitting you both.
Ghaddafi's plans for getting people in and out of countries are going to be much harder given IRL, but an equal amount of impetus behind it to make something happen.
Spylobster
Centrist-Malenyevist
Must be weird for UAR tourists to see Pandas in Chinese zoos since I think they went extinct in the TLM TL.