1a) We aren't just any E4 Exalt. We're an Infernal Exalt with a power set almost tailor made to pull this kind of thing off. Between, RDV, BMI, and the Crown, protecting against decapitation attacks by Molly is very hard indeed.
1b) We aren't just an E4 Exalt, we're the tip of the spear of an entire world. The Red Court isn't just facing us, they're facing the full might of a magitech civilisation.
2) The Red Court in its prime may have been a different beast. Now the Red King is senile, they're riven by internal dissent and literal o outsiders seem to have hollowed them out to use them as a globe puppet to work with capital O Outsiders.
3) The portal isn't a weak spot; it's a strong spot. It's a location where we can deploy a concentration of force unparalleled by any other player in the world. No one else is allowed to casually deploy substantial forces from the Nevernever into reality by the White God. We seem to be able to. Morgan was concerned about this exact kind of scenario for a reason.
Even Outsiders are limited.
And if we do attract a load of heat and focus our enemeis' attention on the portal site. That's an advantage. It means they're attacking where we're strong and are expecting us. They don't have unlimited time and resources, indeed, with the capacity of a magitech government infrastructure behind us, we probably have a massive advantage there. They're apparently a conspiracy of individuals. We're not.
As a side effect, it'll give us lots of Crown focuses.
1A) You are significantly overestimating our capability in that regard.
And underestimating the resources available to the Red Court and their backers.
1B) And that would only matter if we were fighting in a white room battle, and assumes that we have seen everything they have in reserve.The Red Court are a millenia old faction thats embedded in the supernatural strucure of the setting and has resources we've never seen, and allies we are unaware of IC.
Th fact that we could possibly beat them in an open field battle does not translate to our ability to uproot them from South America, just like the US's military supremacy in the Middle East did not translate to an ability to winkle Iran out of its pawns and puppets in the region.
Because we can probably beat them militarily if noone else interferes.
But I doubt we'd be that lucky.
And we certainly arent currently equipped to handle the aftermath, in my personal opinion.
2) And yet they crippled Winter for several years, and almost destroyed the White Council.
For all that the Red King has issues, the Red Court itself remains a pretty effective organization thats built well enough to operate even when its chief executive is not on his A-game. And none of their several deficiencies, like their involvement with the Outsiders, appears to pose a pressing threat to their power in the short to medium term.
3) Thats just not true.
The portal is a breach in the circle of protections that have kept our Hell safe from external intrusion. The god we created it for literally says it puts us at risk. You do not create a vulnerability where none previously existed and then call it a strong point.
4)*points at Battle Ground and the Fomor army* Not how it works.
Noone who isnt involved in the mortal world is allowed to interfere; thats not the same thing. You have to have skin in the game if you want to play. The Fae Courts clashed in Milwaukee in 1994 in the real world just fine.
As far as Im aware, Outsiders are not limited in how many people they can deploy. They just have to summon them across the Gates first, and risk exposing their numbers openly for everyone to see and take countermeasures against. So they dont do it very often. They are generally better served by secrecy than public posturing, at least at this stage.
Drakul and his goon squad could go to a cemetery or mass grave and raise several hundred thousand, even several million goons without issue; they did try it during Battle Ground.
Undying, regenerating uber ghouls from the NeverNever were deployed en masse at Raith Deep during White Night.
Thats just what we've seen in Chicago, which is a small, if important fraction of the setting.
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This is a very dangerous situation, but I think we can do a lot to mitigate these risk. That splendor I posted earlier would make mook spam hard, and more importantly disintegrate immediate red presence in this region of South America. I think lord of the land would help a lot in an invasion too. We need to put our back into it, but it's not hopeless.
I think that we have a bit of time before someone Drakul tier tries this, for the simple reason that old supernaturals do not take blind risks. As much as we're afraid of being invaded by someone stronger than us they should be at least concerned by literally walking into (a) hell.
Once someone feels they have information about how things work we'll have people pulling more serious incursions.
Unless the QM hands them the idiot ball, as soon as we try to focus on the Reds, they'll either try to tag in collaborators, or hold our attention while we get jumped from behind. This was the strategy that almost killed the White Council during Dead Beat, after all, when the Kemmlerites almost built their own god while the Council was absorbed by the Reds.
Dresdenverse ritual magic can be terrifying... as long as it has the right conceptual leverage. I'm not saying the portal couldn't ever be used as conduit for sympathetic magic, but then they would either need to bring the portal to Chichen Itza or Chichen Itza to it.
Otherwise it would be like the Red Court trying to use a sample of our hair for a curse in Chichen Itza, except that hair is in Chicago.
I know there are entropic curses that don't need a piece of you, but logically speaking that means they have much higher power requirements (that would only increase with distance), and if Chichen Itza could function as a freely targetable intercontinental ballistic curse missile like that, then don't you think they would have used that against the White Council? Instead of needing to get a blood relative of Blackstaff?
Odin makes it clear this kind of strategic power manipulation was commoner in the past.
They could just embody the power/curse in a physical object or entity and send it forth to strike at the earth of Sanctuary.
Like we did in the Wicked City.
Note how Harry's mother was killed. She had been away from Lord Raith for months if not years at that point.
The reason the bloodline curse ritual needed a blood relative of the Blackstaff is precisely because McCoy spent most of his free time behind the heavy duty wards of Edinburgh, the ones built by generations of wizards on an old Fae fortress and powered by a fuckhuge leyline nexus.
They needed extraordinary measures to get at him. Like a bloodline curse channeled through his bloodline.
Or a pretty brawny god.
If you don't count Mother Winter, Mab herself and maybe also the forces tied to the Outer Gates, then I don't think that it's obvious at all, that Sanctuary's military is weaker than what's freely available for Winter to use. It's a postindustrial high tech military that has a lot of the weaknesses that the Earth's less developed equivalents have against magic removed.
You only need to remember what we encountered in Wicked City to see how dangerous such forces could be.
And the political power can't exactly be compared. We have all the political power in Sanctuary. On Earth and especially Nevernever, we have much, much less than Mab, but, ironically, the portal itself now means we have more political power than ever before, which comes with increased potential for power projection. It would be a spectacularly bad idea, but we could hypothetically have a go with Morgan's "Iceland scenario" now in South America and try to take it over.
Look, I'm not saying there aren't real threats around, like Nemesis and Ethniu, or that we shouldn't close that portal when we can (we can always work to open one later again, under more controllable conditions), but you weaken your argument, if you try to overestimate every smaller threat and underestimate Sanctuary at the same time.
The Law novelette gives some idea of the kind of random conceptual shit that Winter apparently has in their pocket.
Like when we discover that Mab has a god/demigod of discord playing lawyer in Chicago, and he's not the only one in Winter that has been keeping a low profile in the Court's hierarchy.
Winter and Summer both have incentive not to tear up the world. They live here after all, and both have a tasking to protect the setting, each in their own way. That limits what they are willing to routinely do; when they slip up, shit like the Unseelie Incursion of 1994 happens, when cities simply vanish as a side effect of Winter's forces clashing with Summer.
Our political power is absolute inside Sanctuary. Outside it, not so much.
Think of it this way; the Kims have absolute political power inside North Korea, but that doesnt translate very well outside of the Hermit Kingdom.