It seems to me there are three possible investment paths for Orbital in the coming quarter: Columbia, Rare Metal Harvesting, and Heavy Metal Harvesting. Enterprise could be invested in, however, we would not be finishing any phases in Q4 and it seems to me that it would be better to either get the political benefit of Columbia or the Resource benefit of Lunar mines (especially the latter with the current dice glut from Philly).
For Columbia we are only interested in doing the first three phases at most and only in this coming quarter for the political impact on the elections. Also finishing the third phase gives us access to a Bay. If we invest, I think our choices here are either shooting for 2 phases with 4 dice, or scrounging up 3 free dice and shooting for 3 phases.
For Rare Metal Harvesting vs Heavy Metal Mines I think we should look at the comparative costs and benefits of the first two phases of the former with the first phase of the latter. this is because there are only two phases currently available for Rare, and only the first phase has metal processing available for Heavy Metal, the second and beyond Phases of Heavy Metal Mines would give us heavy metals, not R.
Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting Phase 1+2:
- 0/325 Progress
- +10 RpT
- -30 mine Progress cost?
- 3 dice 60R 4%, 4 dice 80R 40%, 5 dice 100R 81%, 6 dice 120R 97%
- 2 mines for plan goal
Heavy Metals Mines Phase 1:
- 0/395 Progress
- +20 RpT
- -10 mine Progress cost?
- 4 dice 80R 3%, 5 dice 100R 29%, 6 dice 120R 67%, 7 dice 140R 90%
- 1 mine for plan goal
The mine progress cost reduction is uncertain, we know that after the first phase of Rare Metals the second phase has a progress cost reduction of 15, and that after each phase of Heavy Metals, the next costs 10 progress less. We also know that this progress cost reduction does not occur for Regolith Harvesting.
Comparatively while the two phases of Rare are cheeper then the one phase of Heavy, Heavy gives twice the RpT, though only half of the plan commitment and 1/3? the progress cost reduction for future lunar mines. Furthermore we don't want to over invest in Rare Metals as there are no future phases beyond phase 2. It seems to me that if we choose to invest in Rare, a good maximum investment in Rare Metals is 4 dice for 40% completing chance, with a min investment of 3 dice to have a 90% chance of finishing phase 1. That way we can slow walk it to completion if necessary.
Heavy Metal Mines by comparison we would want to invest as many dice as we could. Unlike Rare Metals, where we could invest dice and be relatively certain of improving our income this turn, unless we invest free dice we only have a 2 in 3 chance of getting income this turn by investing in Heavy Metals. But the balance is that we would be making twice as much if it completed as we would if we completed both Rare mines.
Really for me, our orbital choices it boils down to:
Heavy investment in Columbia for the political impact and for access to a Bay, but at the cost of free dice
[] Orbital 6/6 + 3 Free dice 180R
-[] GDSS Columbia 9 dice, 180R, 95% chance Phase 1+2+3
Moderate investment in Columbia, get the first .25k colonists up there, with Mines filing the rest. (I chose rare metals here just for the chance to actually get some income for the next turn)
[] Orbital 6/6 120R
-[] GDSS Columbia 4 dice, 80R, 92% chance Phase 1+2
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1) 2 dice, 40R, 43% chance Phase 1
Heavy investment in mines for the income
[] Orbital 6/6 120R
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1) 4 dice, 80R 99% chance (40% chance of Phase 1+2)
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 1) 2 dice, 40R, 2/5.5 median
OR
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 1) 6 dice, 120R, 67% chance