Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

HousePet · Jun 10, 2022

I certainly have no objections to putting 6 dice on Agriculture.
4 dice on Strategic Food Stockpile Construction shouldn't be an issue either. This is a highly parallelisable decentralised project, so I don't see that we have anything to worry about fast spending.

Simon_Jester · Jun 10, 2022

I'd been contemplating a five-die Agriculture plan, but I might grit my teeth and make it a six, especially if failure to do so will only mean having to spend more Free dice on the area later.

doruma1920 said:
Kudzu or Spider Cotton both still exist as R cheap projects that we should do at some point and will still be available at the start of the new Plan. As such, I'm not particularly worried about lacking R cheap options in Agriculture. I do want a solid Food Surplus, as that helps both insulate the supply from shocks. So, I'd prefer to put a die or two into Aquaponics this turn as that has a 75%/100% chance of completing the project, then switch over to Agri Mech for the rest of the Food production.

Out of respect for the quality of your analysis, and because this isn't a bad argument, I'm swayed by this.

Khop · Jun 10, 2022

Phht said:
If you only count dice, then sure, they're not. But dice isn't the only thing expended to do projects. The Resource budget per turn is global, not per category. That's the spot where you start to run into funding issues and have to prioritize.

Now now, let's not pretend the agricultural department is somehow particularly R intensive while looking ways to spend 100 R per die on blackbox portals.

BoSPaladin · Jun 10, 2022

Actual image of the treasury.

[/spoiler

staplesdex2 · Jun 10, 2022

Man, this whole situation just like the Navy again.

Shard · Jun 10, 2022

[X] Eliminate Outside Influence

VonVonson · Jun 10, 2022

The navy has a issue of being the department with the largest amount of time between project finished -> we see benefits of anything really. It takes years for a shipyard to spit out the max number of ships it can support, as opposed to any other equipment factory which takes a year to begin making a significant difference on the battle field.

By contrast agriculture is much cheaper in terms of both resource and indicator requirements, it's just underdeveloped because we tend to ignore it when the budget because we'll if we're good on food then why make more food? With 4 turns left we should be able to hit our reserve goals pretty comfortably.

Lightwhispers · Jun 10, 2022

BoSPaladin said:
Actual image of the treasury.

[/spoiler

I prefer the Steel Talons one, because the Military has been getting lots of attention... but we put all the floaties on the right leg, so they're flailing to keep from capsizing.

doruma1920 · Jun 10, 2022

VonVonson said:
With 4 turns left we should be able to hit our reserve goals pretty comfortably.

Yes we should still be able to hit our goals. However, if the Refugee wave is as bad as it seems its going to be, we are going to need not insignificant Free Dice investment to both feed our new populace and complete the Plan Goal.

Especially if we want any sort of Food buffer to smooth out kinks in the production/logistics lines and in case of sabotage.

Yes, we can still do this and keep people fed, however, we are going to need early and consistent Free Dice investment to do so.

Phht · Jun 10, 2022

Khop said:
Now now, let's not pretend the agricultural department is somehow particularly R intensive while looking ways to spend 100 R per die on blackbox portals.

I'm not sure the relevance of this. The initial comment was on the fact that there were three mutually incompatible to fund "crisis" items needing to be done - food stockpiles, SADN, space. You commented on them being different dice categories and not mutually exclusive. I pointed out that it's the resources not the dice that'd be the issue.

...to which you point solely at Agriculture and comment on its lack of high R projects before referring to portal tech being expensive.

So, lemme put out why trying to tackle all three areas are in practice basically mutually exclusive. I'll be using derpmind's threadmarked probability array, and pulling the worst case options (plan for the worst, hope for the best).

Agriculture - We're looking at 6 dice per turn here, so 60R. That'd initially be ~2 dice on aquaponics to ensure a phase each turn, plus ~4 dice on stockpile construction. Dice placement might change due to stockpile construction progress requirements increasing each phase thus far and possibly getting a good buffer on food.

Space - Columbia and Shala have the same spending to complete. 9 dice, 180R. If we restrict a station to only half the dice, that's 3D 60R for three turns. If we do both stations, that's 6D 120R for three turns.

Military - SADN would need 15D 300R to complete. Restricting to half Mil dice pool, that's 4D 80R for three turns and 3D 60R for one turn.

Total, all three areas come to 200R for three turns and 120R for one turn. If we do both stations, that's 260R for three turns and 120R for one turn. And we'd probably still be funding 60R per turn to agriculture after that.

Q1 2061 has 1000R, so these numbers don't sound that bad. But that's final year of the Plan. Let's go back to Q4 2057 just before the last Reallocation, with 660R. We're now looking at 1/3-1/2 the budget per turn on three areas. And not even all of all three areas. And we still have 6-6.5 departments to fund per turn as well. Q1 2058, after Reallocation? 365R. 200R per turn is 55% of the budget. I'm expecting post-Reallocation that we'll have ~500-700R to work with. 200-260R per turn is a hefty chunk of the budget.

But, you know, you're right. Portal tech is also a majorly important thing to work on to further help evacuate the planet. That's 2D 200R to finish the current project. So if we're nice and don't frontload that one, it'll be two turns of 200-260R, one turn of 300-360R, and one turn of 220R. Hopefully, I don't need to compare those numbers to budgets again for you.

So, theoretically these critical need areas are not mutually exclusive to fund, but in practice we have too much other stuff needing funding to afford to spend 20% or more of the budget pushing them all. Thus they are essentially mutually exclusive needs.

Khop · Jun 10, 2022

Phht said:
I'm not sure the relevance of this. The initial comment was on the fact that there were three mutually incompatible to fund "crisis" items needing to be done - food stockpiles, SADN, space. You commented on them being different dice categories and not mutually exclusive. I pointed out that it's the resources not the dice that'd be the issue.

...to which you point solely at Agriculture and comment on its lack of high R projects before referring to portal tech being expensive.

So, lemme put out why trying to tackle all three areas are in practice basically mutually exclusive. I'll be using derpmind's threadmarked probability array, and pulling the worst case options (plan for the worst, hope for the best).

Agriculture - We're looking at 6 dice per turn here, so 60R. That'd initially be ~2 dice on aquaponics to ensure a phase each turn, plus ~4 dice on stockpile construction. Dice placement might change due to stockpile construction progress requirements increasing each phase thus far and possibly getting a good buffer on food.

Space - Columbia and Shala have the same spending to complete. 9 dice, 180R. If we restrict a station to only half the dice, that's 3D 60R for three turns. If we do both stations, that's 6D 120R for three turns.

Military - SADN would need 15D 300R to complete. Restricting to half Mil dice pool, that's 4D 80R for three turns and 3D 60R for one turn.

Total, all three areas come to 200R for three turns and 120R for one turn. If we do both stations, that's 260R for three turns and 120R for one turn. And we'd probably still be funding 60R per turn to agriculture after that.

Q1 2061 has 1000R, so these numbers don't sound that bad. But that's final year of the Plan. Let's go back to Q4 2057 just before the last Reallocation, with 660R. We're now looking at 1/3-1/2 the budget per turn on three areas. And not even all of all three areas. And we still have 6-6.5 departments to fund per turn as well. Q1 2058, after Reallocation? 365R. 200R per turn is 55% of the budget. I'm expecting post-Reallocation that we'll have ~500-700R to work with. 200-260R per turn is a hefty chunk of the budget.

But, you know, you're right. Portal tech is also a majorly important thing to work on to further help evacuate the planet. That's 2D 200R to finish the current project. So if we're nice and don't frontload that one, it'll be two turns of 200-260R, one turn of 300-360R, and one turn of 220R. Hopefully, I don't need to compare those numbers to budgets again for you.

So, theoretically these critical need areas are not mutually exclusive to fund, but in practice we have too much other stuff needing funding to afford to spend 20% or more of the budget pushing them all. Thus they are essentially mutually exclusive needs.

20% to do everything all at once. A deliberately chosen extreme, and it only costs 20%, seems pretty budget to me and that's doing everything in less than a year. You know we have several of those in a plan and their all four turns long? And even here I'm being generous, the point as it stands is that the emergency agricultural provisions are not R intensive as you have helpfully pointed out and they are not mutually exclusive as they are not hard dice locked only R locked. And we have not prioritised one over the other two because none of them have been done. So no, they are not mutually exclusive.

Hazard · Jun 10, 2022

doruma1920 said:
Yes we should still be able to hit our goals. However, if the Refugee wave is as bad as it seems its going to be, we are going to need not insignificant Free Dice investment to both feed our new populace and complete the Plan Goal.

Especially if we want any sort of Food buffer to smooth out kinks in the production/logistics lines and in case of sabotage.

Yes, we can still do this and keep people fed, however, we are going to need early and consistent Free Dice investment to do so.

If we sprint for the Stored Food options that doesn't mean that the Food indicator we dedicate to Stored Food disappears. We can, in theory, do exactly as Parliament demands of us and establish 18 points of extra Food storage, and then go 'oh dear, we have a shortfall of 14 points, better start using the stored food, we have 2 turns to get enough production of food to get back in the positives, or shrink the stockpiles a little so we have enough spare capacity'.

I wouldn't advise doing that because Parliament is going to be pissed, but it's an option.

tenchifew · Jun 10, 2022

Hazard said:
If we sprint for the Stored Food options that doesn't mean that the Food indicator we dedicate to Stored Food disappears. We can, in theory, do exactly as Parliament demands of us and establish 18 points of extra Food storage, and then go 'oh dear, we have a shortfall of 14 points, better start using the stored food, we have 2 turns to get enough production of food to get back in the positives, or shrink the stockpiles a little so we have enough spare capacity'.

I wouldn't advise doing that because Parliament is going to be pissed, but it's an option.

Well, let's not.
Because if I am not seriously mistaken, a bunch of people in our government would take shenangians like this extremely personally and we would lose a bunch of political influence over it, and pretty much deservingly.

doruma1920 · Jun 10, 2022

Ideally our agricultural state in a year will have the Plan Goals complete, and not only do we still have a Food surplus, but the surplus is 10 or greater. That way we have some insulation from further refugee waves after the high mark of the current one subsides. Having a surplus that large also gives us a shock absorber against sabotage, bad harvests, and room to play with other things then Food production or use it for Ranching domes. It does require an extra Free Die to achieve this and requires ~35 more R then pursuing the minimal approach.

--Strategic Food Stockpile Construction Phase 2-6: 38/1000 Progress ~13 dice median (130 R)
---Requires 15 Food (Freeze Dried Food Plants Efficiency Applied)
---Provides 10 Food in reserve
---Note: Assumes Phase 5 and 6 continue the progress increasing pattern of Phase 2-4 and are 225 and 250 Progress respectively.
--Extra Large Food Stockpiles: 1 die 100%
---Requires 12 Food (Freeze Dried Food Plants Efficiency Applied)
---Provides 8 Food in reserve
---This is a single die, autocomplete project and as such we should use an Administrative Assistance or Erewhon die
--Total: 27 Food
-40 Housing worth of Refugees
--40 Refugees * 0.5 Food/Refugee = 20 Food
-Total Food Requirements: 47 Food

Food Production:
-Current = 22 Food
-Chemical Fertilizer Plants Phase 2: 276/300 Progress, ~1 die median (15 R)
--Provides 4 Food
-Freeze Dried Food Plants: 151/200 ~1 die median (20 R)
--Provides 5 Food
-BZ Aquaponics Phase 4: 75/140 Progress, ~1 die median (10 R)
--Provides 6 Food
-Agri Mechanization Phase 1-2: 0/400 Progress, ~5 dice median (75 R)
--Provides 20 Food
-Total Food Production: 57 Food

Net Food: 10 Food
Total Dice: 20 Agri Dice (4 Free Dice Required), 1 LCI Die, 1 AA/E Die, 250 R

Simon_Jester · Jun 10, 2022

I really, really hate putting off Hallucinogen Countermeasures. I don't think it's a good idea. We know the Remembrancers use them and we know they keep poking us every couple of turns, quite possibly every single turn...

But I can draft a plan without them.

This plan has SOME chance of forcing us to tap into our Energy reserves for a single turn (though if that happens it'll be because we got really close on the fusion roll and will hopefully be able to slam out a phase next turn). However, the odds of this happening are less than 1%. There is at least a single digit chance of going down to +0 Energy, but it is far more likely that we wind up with net positive energy, very possibly quite a lot of it.

...

Budget:
1020/1020 R
7/7 Free Dice

16 Initial Energy

ENERGY WORST IMAGINABLE CASE (Nagoya and Seattle and Anadyr (!) but no fusion phase, 0.55% chance)
+16 -1 (fertiizers) -2 (Anadyr) -2 (drones) -1 (freeze drying) -1 (mechanization) -5 (Nagoya) -6 (Seattle) = -2

ENERGY WORST PLAUSIBLE CASE (Nagoya and Seattle but no fusion phase, 7% chance)
+16 -1 (fertiizers) -2 (Anadyr) -2 (drones) -1 (freeze drying) -1 (mechanization) -5 (Nagoya) -6 (Seattle) = +0

ENERGY MEDIUM CASE (fusion phase and Nagoya OR Seattle, 28% chance)
+16 +16 (fusion) -1 (fertiizers) -2 (drones) -1 (freeze drying) -1 (mechanization) -5 or 6 (Nagoya/Seattle) = +21 or +22

[] Draft Attempting To Supply The Canned Beans
Infrastructure (+34) 6/6 Dice 80 R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 (2 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 6, median 104/300 on Phase 7)
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 3+4+5) 72/160 (4 Dice, 40 R) (Phase 3, 97% chance of Phase 4, 18% chance of Phase 5)
Heavy Industry (+29) 5/5 Dice + 1 Free Die 180 R
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plant (Phase 8) 67/300 (3 Dice, 60 R) (65% chance)
-[] Isolinear Chip Foundry Anadyr 85/320 (2 Dice, 100 R) (8% chance)
-[] One Die on Laser Project (???, 20 R just in case; allocate elsewhere if this proves totally unnecessary)
Light and Chemical Industry (+24) 5/5 Dice 55 R
-[] Chemical Fertilizer Plants (Phase 2) 276/300 (1 Die, 15 R) (100% chance)
-[] Civilian Drone Factories 104/380 (4 Dice, 40 R) (74% chance)
Agriculture (+24) 4/4 Dice + 2 Free Dice 80 R
-[] Freeze Dried Food Plants 151/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (91% chance)
-[] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 1) 0/150 (2 Dice, 30 R) (63% chance)
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 2+3) 38/150 (3 Dice, 30 R) (99% chance of Phase 2, 18% chance of Phase 3)
Tiberium (+39) 7/7 Dice + 1 Free Die 240 R
-[] Harvesting Tendril Deployment (Phase 1) (New) 0/600 (8 Dice, 240 R) (95% chance)
Orbital (+26) 6/6 Dice + 1 Free Die 140 R
-[] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5) 102/1535 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/17.5 median)
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 45/305 (3 Dice, 60 R) (Phase 1, 39% chance of Phase 2)
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 276/320 (1 Die, 20 R) (98% chance)
Services (+27) X/5 Dice 65 R
-[] 65 R WORTH OF OTHER SERVICES STUFF (Nod gacha, hallucinogens, ???, Heaven knows what all)
Military (+26) 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Dice 180 R
-[] Skywatch Telescope System 64/95 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[] Orbital Strike Regimental Combat Team Stations (Phase 3) 5/295 (3 Dice, 60 R) (28% chance)
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya) 171/240 (1 Die, 20 R) (73% chance)
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Seattle) 0/300 (4 Dice, 80 R) (64% chance)
Bureaucracy 4/4 + EREWHON!!!
-[] Conduct Economic Census DC 100/150/200/250 (4+E Dice) (96.1% chance of DC 250, 99.6% chance of DC 200)

HousePet · Jun 10, 2022

This is a wild suggestion, but we possibly don't need free dice in Tib at all for the rest of this Plan.
We don't actually have any Plan Goals at risk there. We want the Tendrils done quickly, but not super super urgently.
The only reason we might want to assign more than the 28 dice we have left in this Plan is if the Ion Collectors need them. And maybe they won't be that dice costly.

staplesdex2 · Jun 10, 2022

So tempted to get Dice on Shala. It seemed to be something that would help with our current Food Problems. If not, what can we afford cut from the Plan proposals and how actually urgent some of them are?

doruma1920 · Jun 10, 2022

HousePet said:
This is a wild suggestion, but we possibly don't need free dice in Tib at all for the rest of this Plan.
We don't actually have any Plan Goals at risk there. We want the Tendrils done quickly, but not super super urgently.
The only reason we might want to assign more than the 28 dice we have left in this Plan is if the Ion Collectors need them. And maybe they won't be that dice costly.

I think we do want that one Free die in Tiberium to boost the chance of completion of tentacles this coming turn from 71% to 95%. That is significant when we are talking about an extra 90 RpT to work with for the rest of the Plan. The sooner we have that income, the better we will be able to fund Pinholes and other expensive projects. Its a cost spent up front in exchange for more solid odds of getting that income boost.

staplesdex2 said:
So tempted to get Dice on Shala. It seemed to be something that would help with our current Food Problems. If not, what can we afford cut from the Plan proposals and how actually urgent some of them are?

Unfortunately Shala is the least effective way to produce Food in terms of both R and Dice. Also Orbital is booked solid*. If we were to put Free dice in Orbital they would be best spent towards completing our plan goals of Enterprise or finishing the lunar mines goal. Rather then starting Shala, even though Shala does provide several benefits, we would need to roll very well and not need Free Dice elsewhere to afford breaking ground on Shala. And if we were moving Free Dice to Orbital for Shala for Food reasons, it would be better if we instead spent those Free Dice in Agriculture as even the least effective Food producer (Vertical Farms) is four times as effective at producing Food per die then Shala is**.

We already have cut down the plan proposals. We moved Karachi to the next Plan (Saving 12 dice). Traded, Arcologies Phase 3 for 3 Phases of Apartments (saving 4 dice). And we traded a Capital Goods goal for Anadyr and Industrial Lasers, (Saving as many as 8 dice, depending on how expensive Industrial Lasers is to implement). All of the plan goals are either some degree of urgent or looking down the opportunity cost of Reallocation. I'll be putting out an updated Four Year Plan Required Dice once the new turn is posted and we know how much dice Industrial Lasers and the Mastodon will cost on average, also how effective CRP is.

*

Orbital requires the completion of Enterprise and three more Lunar Mines.

-Complete GDSS Enterprise: 102/1535 Progress ~18 dice median
--Provides 2 Capital Goods
--Provides 2 Consumer Goods

-Complete at least three more phases of Space Mines:
--2 Rare Metals Mines and 1 Regolith Harvesters: 45/305 Progress ~3 dice median, 276/330 Progress ~1 die median
---Provides +25 RpT

Semi Required Projects:
-None

Orbital Total = 22
24 Orbital Dice for the rest of the Plan, 2 available, no free dice required.

**

Category	Name	Progress Cost	Current Progress	Median Dice	RpD	R Cost	Food Produced	Food Per Die	Food Per R
Agriculture	BZ Aquaponics Phase 4	140	75	1	10	10	6	6	0.6
Agriculture	Freeze Dried Food Plants	200	151	1	20	20	5	5	0.25
Agriculture	Agriculture Mechanization Phase 1	150	0	2	15	30	8	4	0.2667
Agriculture	Agriculture Mechanization Phase 1-2	400	0	5	15	75	20	4	0.2667
Agriculture	BZ Aquaponics Phase 4-5	280	75	3	10	30	12	4	0.4
LCI	Chemical Fertilizer Plants	300	276	1	15	15	4	4	0.2667
Agriculture	BZ Aquaponics Phase 4-6	420	75	5	10	50	18	3.6	0.36
Agriculture	Vertical Farming Projects Stage 2	240	65	2	15	30	4	2	0.1333
Orbital	Shala Phase 1-5	2610	0	32	20	640	15	0.4688	0.0234
Orbital	Shala Phase 1-4	1255	0	16	20	320	7	0.4375	0.0219
Orbital	Shala Phase 1-3	580	0	7	20	140	3	0.4286	0.0214
Orbital	Shala Phase 1-2	245	0	3	20	60	1	0.3333	0.0167

[/SPOILER

Simon_Jester · Jun 10, 2022

HousePet said:
This is a wild suggestion, but we possibly don't need free dice in Tib at all for the rest of this Plan.
We don't actually have any Plan Goals at risk there. We want the Tendrils done quickly, but not super super urgently.
The only reason we might want to assign more than the 28 dice we have left in this Plan is if the Ion Collectors need them. And maybe they won't be that dice costly.

I'm actually inclined to agree. I'm only putting one Free die on Tiberium in my own plan drafts because I really really want to make sure we finish Phase 1 of the tendril harvester project in a single turn. The problem there is that if we don't finish the project it's retroactively a huge waste of money, and we lose out on +90 R for the 2061Q2 budget, which in turn has a lot of undesirable knock-on effects.

But I have absolutely zero intention of assigning any more Free dice to Tiberium after that one.

staplesdex2 said:
So tempted to get Dice on Shala. It seemed to be something that would help with our current Food Problems. If not, what can we afford cut from the Plan proposals and how actually urgent some of them are?

We don't really need to cut anything; the existing proposals are designed around meeting our needs, including the Food needs.

We cannot spend Orbital dice on Shala because we need all the Orbital dice to build the stuff we already promised to build. If we did any Shala construction, it would have to be with Free dice. And spending Free dice on Shala is a very inefficient way to get +Food, compared to spending the same Free dice on agricultural projects that are cheaper per die and give us more Food for less dice.

Lightwhispers · Jun 10, 2022

Another reason we don't want to start on Shala just yet, is that if we do the Station bay on Enterprise, that will reduce each station's progress cost by 315 for each 5-phase station (Shala and Columbia), and the Leopard II factory would provide another 155 Progress discount, over all 5 phases, per station. But for each phase we do before those cost-reducers, we halve the benefit on that station.

Phht · Jun 11, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
I really, really hate putting off Hallucinogen Countermeasures. I don't think it's a good idea. We know the Remembrancers use them and we know they keep poking us every couple of turns, quite possibly every single turn...

But I can draft a plan without them.

Just do what I plotted, and aim to slot it in Q3 and immediately work on deployment Q4, so there's no debate over whether to fund deployment in a turn prior to that (just debate over dev funding).

Orbital (+26) 6/6 Dice + 1 Free Die 140 R
-[] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5) 102/1535 (3 Dice, 60 R) (3/17.5 median)
-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1+2) 45/305 (3 Dice, 60 R) (Phase 1, 39% chance of Phase 2)
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 2) 276/320 (1 Die, 20 R) (98% chance)

So this'll be two or all three of our last three moon mines promised and so Q2-3 will be basically full speed Enterprise dice-wise? Are we looking at 6+1 Q2-3 in the hopes we complete Q3 or potentially only have 1-2 dice needed to complete Q4?

Also, is Phase 1+2 of Rare Metals actually 305? @Derpmind 's threadmarked Probability Array currently shows 265 for that. And the probability array at the end of the Q4 2060 post shows 285 for Phase 1+2.

Military (+26) 8/8 Dice + 2 Free Dice 180 R
-[] Skywatch Telescope System 64/95 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[] Railgun Munitions Development 38/60 (1 Die, 10 R) (100% chance)
-[] Orbital Strike Regimental Combat Team Stations (Phase 3) 5/295 (3 Dice, 60 R) (28% chance)
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Nagoya) 171/240 (1 Die, 20 R) (73% chance)
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyard (Seattle) 0/300 (4 Dice, 80 R) (64% chance)

I'd complain about 5 dice on Plan Goals instead of 8, but if it knocks out the frigate yards, then the free dice that could've gone to it next turn can go to Plan Goals instead and compensate for the less investment this turn. Plus if that free die from Tib doesn't find a better home in Q2, that just makes a potential 8+3 on Plan Goals in Q2 and hopefully sets things to wrap up in Q3 (or just leave a couple loose ends for Q4). I would like to slip Hallucinogen Countermeasures Dev and Zone Defender Revision in Q3 in hopes that we could slap out Countermeasures Deploy, GFZA phase 1, and SADN phase 1 in Q4 (and maybe start disco ball refits. I'd like an 8+7 that turn if possible, after all).

ramdomperson · Jun 11, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
-[] One Die on Laser Project (???, 20 R just in case; allocate elsewhere if this proves totally unnecessary)

It almost certainly will be necessary to spend dice on industrial lasers.

Ithillid said:
Deploy Crystal Beam Industrial Laser

Simon_Jester · Jun 11, 2022

ramdomperson said:
It almost certainly will be necessary to spend dice on industrial lasers.

I dunno. I'm just covering contingencies and trying to budget for the project at least a little. I don't feel like we can spare more Free dice for it this turn, but we're close to turning the corner on the Energy requirements of all our war factories, which gives us a lot more freedom of action in Heavy Industry.

bigking321 · Jun 11, 2022

Simon_Jester said:
I really, really hate putting off Hallucinogen Countermeasures. I don't think it's a good idea. We know the Remembrancers use them and we know they keep poking us every couple of turns, quite possibly every single turn...

But I can draft a plan without them.

I definitely think we should do them.

The thing we know they are used for is disrupting defensive locations around high tech research areas and we are starting some very high tech stuff indeed.

Simon_Jester · Jun 11, 2022

Phht said:
Just do what I plotted, and aim to slot it in Q3 and immediately work on deployment Q4, so there's no debate over whether to fund deployment in a turn prior to that (just debate over dev funding).

I never assume my plans for what to do in turns past the upcoming one will be heeded or adopted.

So this'll be two or all three of our last three moon mines promised and so Q2-3 will be basically full speed Enterprise dice-wise? Are we looking at 6+1 Q2-3 in the hopes we complete Q3 or potentially only have 1-2 dice needed to complete Q4?

That is the general consensus from most planmakers, yes. Finish the mines as best we can without wasting dice, while putting all other dice on Enterprise. The exact number of Free dice likely to be committed to building Enterprise is inherently uncertain, of course, so there is no one "the plan."

Also, is Phase 1+2 of Rare Metals actually 305? @Derpmind 's threadmarked Probability Array currently shows 265 for that. And the probability array at the end of the Q4 2060 post shows 285 for Phase 1+2.

If the actual Progress cost is 265 or 285, well and good. My plan will likely be unchanged.

Even at 265 Progress, we still probably need three dice on Rare Metal Harvesting to have more than the slimmest and most negligible chance of finishing Phase 2. And the point of the plan is to spend the minimum number of dice that gives some reasonable chance of finishing Phase 2 of the rare metal mines, but no more. If we roll unlucky and three dice aren't enough, we roll the fourth die in 2061Q2. If necessary- and it's very very unlikely- we roll a fifth in 2061Q3.

The idea is to leave as many dice as possible available for work on Enterprise.

I'd complain about 5 dice on Plan Goals instead of 8, but if it knocks out the frigate yards, then the free dice that could've gone to it next turn can go to Plan Goals instead and compensate for the less investment this turn.

The frigate yards are, in effect, honorary Plan goals, because we can't solve the actual problem the escort carriers are intended to solve without building them. It's sort of like how strictly there's nothing in the Plan commitments that forces us to build the freeze-drying plants, but we'd be fools not to complete the freeze-drying plants.

Plus if that free die from Tib doesn't find a better home in Q2, that just makes a potential 8+3 on Plan Goals in Q2 and hopefully sets things to wrap up in Q3 (or just leave a couple loose ends for Q4). I would like to slip Hallucinogen Countermeasures Dev and Zone Defender Revision in Q3 in hopes that we could slap out Countermeasures Deploy, GFZA phase 1, and SADN phase 1 in Q4 (and maybe start disco ball refits. I'd like an 8+7 that turn if possible, after all).

Broadly speaking my plan is in line with yours except I am not at ALL sure I'll want to spend fifteen dice on the military in 2061Q4, and it sounds like you will.

One firm opinion of mine is that in 2062Q1, I want to put several dice into Ferro-Aluminum Armor Refits and GD-3 Development. Having something we can cheaply but usefully spend Military dice on is going to be very helpful for those first few turns, and the GD-3 may prove very very important when we go into Karachi, because while hopefully at least some of our forces will be wearing Ground Force Zone Armor by then, I doubt that they all will... And the GD-3 is going to help our infantry, or such is my understanding. But the thing is, rifle deployment is going to involve building rifle factories... and I'm pretty sure those are a 5-10 R/die project, because making hundreds of thousands of rifles is extremely basic light industry by GDI standards.

bigking321 said:
I definitely think we should do them.

The thing we know they are used for is disrupting defensive locations around high tech research areas and we are starting some very high tech stuff indeed.

EXACTLY. But at this point, I'm running out of things I can palatably sacrifice to put a die on the project. Looking at my last plan, what do you suggest?

Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

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The Paladin

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One and Many

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