It seems two faced of politicians to want to demand meaningful food stockpiles while also demanding we not go back to rationing.
It's only "two-faced" if we genuinely lack the capacity to do so. We do not, and we have not for nigh on a decade now, we just have chosen not to use that capacity as best as we can. The good news is that the near future holds much better ability to utilize the capacity, so maybe we should do that.
 
There'd be a lot less complaining if steak and bacon was back on the menu.

This is true, however, if the current influx of Refugees continues at the current rate for the next year, as was implied by the results, we need roughly 3 free dice in Agriculture to both keep a Food surplus and to fulfill our Plan Goals. If we add Ranching Domes to that, thats another 5 dice (3 for the Domes, 2 for the Food to feed the domes).

This is still possible, but it is going to require at least 2 Free Dice investment per turn in Agriculture. Still I think we should focus on ensuring the Plan Goals are met, with Ranching Domes a Q4 project if we have the spare dice.
 
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Parliament wants bigger food stockpiles ASAP and they want more and better food ASAP and they want improved space stations ASAP...

At some point, we have to prioritize and decide what actually has to be done As Soon As Possible versus what can be done over a couple of quarters. Politics prevents us from just saying this, but Parliament has not been clear. They give us more goals than we have resources, and then they become annoyed when we don't accomplish all of the goals on schedule.

GDI agreed as a whole that the Plan Goals were doable when they were formulated. When we went for renegotiation of the Plan Goals due to the Regency War we asked for few changes, because the war was going pretty well.

Twice has the Treasury agreed that the plan, as it was written, could be done. And Parliament is not wrong to look at the Treasury and ask 'so, about this goal, it seems to have stalled, could you get on with it?' That is part of Parliament's job. To tell bureaucrats to get on with implementing GDI's goals, instead of doing endlessly stacking more shells and weapons platforms.

Not because supplying the military is unimportant, but because the other things are also important, and as such not to be neglected.
 
This is true, however, if the current influx of Refugees continues at the current rate for the next year, as was implied by the results, we need roughly 3 free dice in Agriculture to both keep a Food surplus and to fulfill our Plan Goals. If we add Ranching Domes to that, thats another 5 dice (3 for the Domes, 2 for the Food to feed the domes).
What if we went with Vertical Farming?
We need to increase both the the amount and variety of foods being produced. Vertical Farming is diversity while still giving +Food.
 
This is true, however, if the current influx of Refugees continues at the current rate for the next year, as was implied by the results, we need roughly 3 free dice in Agriculture to both keep a Food surplus and to fulfill our Plan Goals. If we add Ranching Domes to that, thats another 5 dice (3 for the Domes, 2 for the Food to feed the domes).

This is still possible, but it is going to require at least 2 Free Dice investment per turn in Agriculture. Still I think we should focus on ensuring the Plan Goals are met, with Ranching Domes a Q4 project if we have the spare dice.
Do you have the math breakdown for this sometime after the results post? Because that is a major shift from where we were with agri. Though if we can get some more food out of LCI beyond fert factories that will help.
 
What if we went with Vertical Farming?
We need to increase both the the amount and variety of foods being produced. Vertical Farming is diversity while still giving +Food.

Sort of yes but mostly no.

The Department of Agriculture isn't stupid, and isn't running the aquaponics as absolute monoculture producers.

Rather, it produces a variety of high efficiency foods that provide proper nutrition, and as growth capacity permits also some of the less efficient but more desirable produce to permit variety in the diet.

Vertical Farming is dedicated to widening the range of food stuffs as well stuff that does not increase the Food indicator, because they do not provide much in the way of nutrition, but the seasonings they make possible count as Consumer Goods because they help make tastier food.
 
What if we went with Vertical Farming?
We need to increase both the the amount and variety of foods being produced. Vertical Farming is diversity while still giving +Food.

That is not a bad idea. I would note that Vertical Farming provides 4 Food in exchange for 2 dice so it is only half as efficient (in both R and Dice) as Aquaponics or Agri Mechanization, but it might be worthwhile if ranching domes is unfeasible. It is technically possible to just complete two phases of Aquaponics and then the Vertical Farms for the same amount of dice as just three phases of Aquaponics, and that would still get us to just break even on Food. I think we would still want more dice in Food production anyway, as that would leave us with 0 Food Surplus, but that is an option.

I'll note my own preference for BZ Aquaponics here as it is an R cheaper way to get Food and is slightly more efficient on a progress to Food basis. Also while Vertical Farms do have chickens, its not the sort of industrial scale meat production that Ranching dome provide.

Do you have the math breakdown for this sometime after the results post? Because that is a major shift from where we were with agri. Though if we can get some more food out of LCI beyond fert factories that will help.

Yes, Here. Bear in mind that is a worst case analysis and assumes our goals are to keep food production positive and meet the plan goals. I think I clarified all of my assumptions and the one limitation that could seriously change the math is CRP, which we don't have details on yet.

Edit: To summarize what changed, our Refugee rate doubled and the results post implied that the new high refugee rate would continue for most of the next year. That increased the load by 10 Food on top of the 10 Food originally planned. That added 4 dice to get another two phases of Aquaponics to feed those refugees.

Also to clarify why I chose BZ Aquaponics over Agri Mechanization here is the Food project table for our currently available Food production projects. I chose BZ Aquaponics for that analysis as they are every so slightly cheaper on a progress to Food basis then Agri Mechanization. And they are certainly cheaper on an R basis.

CategoryNameProgress CostCurrent ProgressDice EstimatedDice RoundedRpDR CostFood ProducedFood Per DieFood Per R
AgricultureBZ Aquaponics Phase 4
140​
75​
0.6711​
1​
10​
10​
6​
6​
0.6​
AgricultureFreeze Dried Food Plants
200​
151​
0.4564​
1​
20​
20​
5​
5​
0.25​
AgricultureAgriculture Mechanization Phase 1
150​
0​
1.8121​
2​
15​
30​
8​
4​
0.2667​
AgricultureAgriculture Mechanization Phase 1-2
400​
0​
5.1678​
5​
15​
75​
20​
4​
0.2667​
AgricultureBZ Aquaponics Phase 4-5
280​
75​
2.5503​
3​
10​
30​
12​
4​
0.4​
LCIChemical Fertilizer Plants
300​
276​
0.1208​
1​
15​
15​
4​
4​
0.2667​
AgricultureBZ Aquaponics Phase 4-6
420​
75​
4.4295​
5​
10​
50​
18​
3.6​
0.36​
AgricultureVertical Farming Projects Stage 2
240​
65​
2.1477​
2​
15​
30​
4​
2​
0.1333​
OrbitalShala Phase 1-5
2610​
0​
31.8405​
32​
20​
640​
15​
0.4688​
0.0234​
OrbitalShala Phase 1-4
1255​
0​
15.2147​
16​
20​
320​
7​
0.4375​
0.0219​
OrbitalShala Phase 1-3
580​
0​
6.9325​
7​
20​
140​
3​
0.4286​
0.0214​
OrbitalShala Phase 1-2
245​
0​
2.8221​
3​
20​
60​
1​
0.3333​
0.0167​
 
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Hmm, depends on how we roll, because 1st phase of agri mech is +2 food for +10 progress it is just that we have 75 progress in right now to the current phase. Also of note that doing phases 4-6 is less food per die at 3.6. So really we should be looking at 4-5 and then swapping to agri mech unless we roll really well and get a lot of overflow. Though that does not change overall number of dice. The larger refugee wave messed with our numbers a bit but only 3 free dice over 4 quarters is not too bad. Ranching dome is very much something to kick off the next plan with though, or at the earliest Q4 if all our other plan goals are done.
 
I will say that unless there is investment beyond that minimum, we are going to have a very small surplus at the end of the year. While that is acceptable, it isn't desirable to have such a small margin for error/sabotage.
 
We aren't super R limited for the remainder of the Plan, so I'd prefer to go with Agri-Mech 1+2 over Aquaponics.
We might want to keep Aquaponics as a cheap option for the start of the next Plan.
 
Both GDI and Nod's milspec ATGMs in TW3 are fire and forget munitions; these being wire guided are not, indicating they were homebrewed. Which means that InOps is doing a good enough job of locking down the Blue Zones that Nod kill teams are having trouble bringing weapons across the borders or stealing them from Home Guard units, which is a remarkable feat in its own right.
Ehhh. I think that stretches the conclusions too far.

Nod has many factions; their weapons are not truly standardized. Each warlord has some stuff the others do not, and only the best of that stuff gets universalized. Krukov had Titans, for instance, and Stahl's troops had laser rifles well before anyone else. It's entirely possible that one or more of Nod's warlord factions has its own wire-guided antitank missile production and that the missiles were smuggled in, even if our "classic" image of TW3-era Nod is of a force that does not use them.

Drop Dublin and shift its dice to finishing the frigate shipyard.
We need 4 dice on Seattle; 3 months makes a significant difference for frigate rollout, and we do not get any credit for partly finished projects.
This is a fundamental point of disagreement. To you, it's obvious. To me, I'm trying to reduce the otherwise quite considerable risk of us having a turn where two major shipyards finish and we don't get another phase of fusion reactors, bringing us down to something like +1 Energy.

That means trying to make partial progress on a whole bunch of war factories and trying not to finish them all at once until we know we have enough Energy... which in turn means we can afford to 'only' spend three dice on fusion reactors, which in turn means we have a lot more freedom of action to allocate Free dice to deal with civilian-economy priorities elsewhere.

And in my opinion, we're better served postponing Hallucinogens(not a plan goal) and putting that dice either into finishing OSRCT 3(plan goal) or starting the first new ZA factory.

Zone Armored guards at the research facilities they are skulking around will screw over the Remembrancers much harder than hallucinogen countermeasures. Because they dont seem to use gas iirc, just telepathy and technopathy.
The Remembrances have explicitly used hallucinogens before.

Moreover, one die on hallucinogens will not make a decisive difference as to whether we get a probably three-die project. It might have an impact. It might not. I'm not going to stop stumping for that, because I think it's actually important, more so than we admit, as a way to weaken the low-frequency but very fucking persistent Nod commando raids that keep pecking away at our command structure and technological advantages. Zone Armor can also help with this, but is apt to get done anyway.

The longer a sub-department has been in existence before reallocation, the more likely spinning it off is to show up as an option. At the very least, I think we are going to want to have all of the available ones up and running by 2061 Q4 so that they will have been in existence for an entire plan by the time that the 2065/66 reallocation rolls around.
That argument MIGHT be worth doing the actions in 2061Q4.

But not before, while we're still trying as hard as we can to use every die we have to its maximal effect while we have the budget to do Cool Shit with it.

+15 or +21 food in vs -16 or -20 food out, which will be reduced by freeze dried plants so more likely we pull ahead and we have a positive surplus of food (+22) right now. So concern about sending too much food into the reserve is misplaced...
Let me put it to you this way.

What do you anticipate the Food surplus being next turn if we do as you say? What will it be if the freeze-drying plants somehow fail to complete for yet another turn?

ASAT is a plan goal as well, though OSRCT gets more die. This way we can drop a die a turn on ASAT after this to finish it without overkill. OSRCT should get another 3-4 dice next turn depending on rolls with a chance to finish it Q2 and at worst drop 1 die on it Q3. By getting more goals out of the way up front the more we can free up free dice for use elsewhere (orbital seems the most likely to make sure enterprise finishes though 1 or 2 in agri for a few quarters should put us ahead there- which depends on how much more efficient freeze dried makes us and how kind or unkind the dice are)
The thing is, we're not "free" until both ASAT and OSRCT are done. As long as there's no danger of pointless rollover on either option, there's no real advantage to splitting rather than concentrating dice.

Its not in danger, orbital is tighter- we need 5 phases of strategic food stockpile which is about 10-11 dice and another die for the large stockpile. With a few free dice we can be in a good spot to have it finished by Q3 where orbital is tight into Q4 without quite a bit of free die pumped into it. Yes we had a misstep but a panicked overcorrection serves no one.
Wait... aren't you implying here that there is no need for more +Food? Because part of what I was baking into my cost estimates was that we couldn't just stop producing additional Food and would need to build some more aquaponics or something, just to compensate for what was going into the reserves. Even with freeze drying, we need -27 Food to get +18 Stored Food, and our surplus isn't so large that we can view a -27 Food hit with equanimity while still being confident of feeding all our refugees AND not getting knocked down to something like +2 Food where we're having actual continuous danger of famine and people are eating fungus bars again because it's all there is.

That is a big part of why I think Agriculture needs Free dice... as does orbital, which you'll note gets one in my plan.
 
Ehhh. I think that stretches the conclusions too far.
Quite significantly. Radar warning receivers, Laser warning receivers, and the like exist and are not uncommon. While something Javelin like is far from impossible there are quite a few niche locations where using a wire guided rocket (like, oh, missile ambushes from concealed positions using remote command) is going to be the chosen option.
 
This is a fundamental point of disagreement. To you, it's obvious. To me, I'm trying to reduce the otherwise quite considerable risk of us having a turn where two major shipyards finish and we don't get another phase of fusion reactors, bringing us down to something like +1 Energy.

That means trying to make partial progress on a whole bunch of war factories and trying not to finish them all at once until we know we have enough Energy... which in turn means we can afford to 'only' spend three dice on fusion reactors, which in turn means we have a lot more freedom of action to allocate Free dice to deal with civilian-economy priorities elsewhere.

I sort of disagree.

You have a point about the potential energy problem but I feel that the sooner we complete the shipyards the sooner the navy issue gets fixed.

I don't think it's worth delaying a shipyard three months just to ensure we have a decent surplus of energy.

Having a small surplus of energy for three months is the lesser problem I feel.
 
regarding energy. One thing I want to point out is we explicitly have the energy reserve for emergencies.

People may not like it, they may have to cut back on their consumer goods, screen time watching tv or playing with electronics and so on. But there's some 'give' in the system. Where, if we truly are that pressed for energy we just take the political loss and put the energy into our shipbuilding.
 
Both GDI and Nod's milspec ATGMs in TW3 are fire and forget munitions; these being wire guided are not, indicating they were homebrewed. Which means that InOps is doing a good enough job of locking down the Blue Zones that Nod kill teams are having trouble bringing weapons across the borders or stealing them from Home Guard units, which is a remarkable feat in its own right.
Ehhh. I think that stretches the conclusions too far.

Nod has many factions; their weapons are not truly standardized. Each warlord has some stuff the others do not, and only the best of that stuff gets universalized. Krukov had Titans, for instance, and Stahl's troops had laser rifles well before anyone else. It's entirely possible that one or more of Nod's warlord factions has its own wire-guided antitank missile production and that the missiles were smuggled in, even if our "classic" image of TW3-era Nod is of a force that does not use them.

Drop Dublin and shift its dice to finishing the frigate shipyard.
We need 4 dice on Seattle; 3 months makes a significant difference for frigate rollout, and we do not get any credit for partly finished projects.
This is a fundamental point of disagreement. To you, it's obvious. To me, I'm trying to reduce the otherwise quite considerable risk of us having a turn where two major shipyards finish and we don't get another phase of fusion reactors, bringing us down to something like +1 Energy.

That means trying to make partial progress on a whole bunch of war factories and trying not to finish them all at once until we know we have enough Energy... which in turn means we can afford to 'only' spend three dice on fusion reactors, which in turn means we have a lot more freedom of action to allocate Free dice to deal with civilian-economy priorities elsewhere.

And in my opinion, we're better served postponing Hallucinogens(not a plan goal) and putting that dice either into finishing OSRCT 3(plan goal) or starting the first new ZA factory.

Zone Armored guards at the research facilities they are skulking around will screw over the Remembrancers much harder than hallucinogen countermeasures. Because they dont seem to use gas iirc, just telepathy and technopathy.
The Remembrances have explicitly used hallucinogens before.

Moreover, one die on hallucinogens will not make a decisive difference as to whether we get a probably three-die project. It might have an impact. It might not. I'm not going to stop stumping for that, because I think it's actually important, more so than we admit, as a way to weaken the low-frequency but very fucking persistent Nod commando raids that keep pecking away at our command structure and technological advantages. Zone Armor can also help with this, but is apt to get done anyway.

The longer a sub-department has been in existence before reallocation, the more likely spinning it off is to show up as an option. At the very least, I think we are going to want to have all of the available ones up and running by 2061 Q4 so that they will have been in existence for an entire plan by the time that the 2065/66 reallocation rolls around.
That argument MIGHT be worth doing the actions in 2061Q4.

But not before, while we're still trying as hard as we can to use every die we have to its maximal effect while we have the budget to do Cool Shit with it.

+15 or +21 food in vs -16 or -20 food out, which will be reduced by freeze dried plants so more likely we pull ahead and we have a positive surplus of food (+22) right now. So concern about sending too much food into the reserve is misplaced...
Let me put it to you this way.

What do you anticipate the Food surplus being next turn if we do as you say? What will it be if the freeze-drying plants somehow fail to complete for yet another turn?

ASAT is a plan goal as well, though OSRCT gets more die. This way we can drop a die a turn on ASAT after this to finish it without overkill. OSRCT should get another 3-4 dice next turn depending on rolls with a chance to finish it Q2 and at worst drop 1 die on it Q3. By getting more goals out of the way up front the more we can free up free dice for use elsewhere (orbital seems the most likely to make sure enterprise finishes though 1 or 2 in agri for a few quarters should put us ahead there- which depends on how much more efficient freeze dried makes us and how kind or unkind the dice are)
The thing is, we're not "free" until both ASAT and OSRCT are done. As long as there's no danger of pointless rollover on either option, there's no real advantage to splitting rather than concentrating dice.

Its not in danger, orbital is tighter- we need 5 phases of strategic food stockpile which is about 10-11 dice and another die for the large stockpile. With a few free dice we can be in a good spot to have it finished by Q3 where orbital is tight into Q4 without quite a bit of free die pumped into it. Yes we had a misstep but a panicked overcorrection serves no one.
Wait... aren't you implying here that there is no need for more +Food? Because part of what I was baking into my cost estimates was that we couldn't just stop producing additional Food and would need to build some more aquaponics or something, just to compensate for what was going into the reserves. Even with freeze drying, we need -27 Food to get +18 Stored Food, and our surplus isn't so large that we can view a -27 Food hit with equanimity while still being confident of feeding all our refugees AND not getting knocked down to something like +2 Food where we're having actual continuous danger of famine and people are eating fungus bars again because it's all there is.

That is a big part of why I think Agriculture needs Free dice... as does orbital, which you'll note gets one in my plan.

The widget pile is stupid, and it always has been. Obsessing about a giant food stockpile is actively counterproductive when what matters is food production, not a giant storehouse that will only be useful in the event of Scrin Invasion 2.0. We just fought a major war, and there was no food shortage.
Well, yes. That's because we hit Nod before they were ready, fought practically the entire war on their soil for the first time in seventy years, and were in general in a great position to make sure that the Regency War did almost no damage to our civilian territory compared to any past Tiberium War.

Meanwhile, Nod has made no serious effort to target our food stockpiles. We do not know what options might be available for them to do that- biowarfare comes to mind. Our food production is spatially distributed, but importantly is not what you'd call diverse; we are heavily dependent on specific crops and specific modes of production, and some kind of highly effective and contagious means of sabotaging those modes of production could leave us with a crippling food production shortfall until we got things figured out.

Much as we cannot use the fact that Nod has not nuked us yet as "proof" that the SADN is unnecessary, we cannot use the fact that Nod has failed to do much to harm GDI's food production as "proof" that large stockpiles are not necessary. Nor can we assume that the major war we just fought (almost entirely on our terms, with the enemy being unable to do more than launch local counterattacks of limited strategic relevance except insofar as they imposed delays on our own offensives) is a guide to how all future wars will play out.

Our boss is not judging us based on the results we produced, but on our decision to produce those results in an effective and intelligent manner.

Rather than obsessively preparing for an imagined disaster, we should be working to prevent such disasters. This would be considerably easier if our boss wasn't shouting at us to hoard canned goods in the basement because of past trauma. In a reasonable world, we could point out that we prioritize valuable accomplishments over the imaginary security of a giant food pile.

We do not live in a reasonable world. We will need to calm the fears of the politicians, and the fears of the voters who elected them. That's how democracy works, and I believe in democracy. But to be perfectly clear, the greatest fools here are the people who are acting based on past trauma and/or political convenience, not the people who correctly recognized that the giant food stockpile is only useful as a coping mechanism.

"Strategic food stockpiles" are a waste of valuable resources, and the requirement to build these useless stockpiles for an imaginary schedule is the worst kind of micromanagement. We serve the people, and we follow their orders, but we should not harbor the delusion that there is any actual reason behind this mania for stockpiles.
I think there is a valid reason.

Famine is the single oldest enemy of man, and of all life. And one important lesson you learn from observing societies that (unlike ours) face famine as a regular threat is that they respond by insuring against famine. By investing costly resources and accepting opportunity costs of efficiency, in exchange for having better ability to survive existential disasters that would otherwise consume them.

It does a peasant family no good to pursue an agricultural strategy that gives them 5% more economic output per man-hour of labor invested, if in the fifth year of pursuing such a strategy, the whole family starves to death because of some high-variance risk factor that their new strategy neglected to hedge against. In a society with robust transportation and agricultural networks, we can assume that any such local deficiencies are the product of bad luck and that the increased overall productivity will balance out the occasional unlucky failure. But this does not insure society against systemic failures... And it is impossible to say with true confidence that Nod cannot induce systemic failures in our food supply chain.

Now, it's pretty clear from the way you approach this debate that you think us immune to the prospect of unexpected famine- that our planned economy's ability to produce sufficient food to keep everyone alive is effectively "unsinkable." Therefore, you prioritize optimization.

But a person who thinks famine is possible and could plausibly occur at any time? They're going to want to make sure that they take steps to render GDI civilization immune to even the worst plausible famines, outright out of the question. Which may entail "wastefully" stockpiling half a trillion cans of beans and vegetarian spam in a global network of bunkers, admittedly!

But... In this case, the underlying reasoning isn't really that much different from SADN- it insures us against a potentially disastrous type of risk.

This is classic "preparing for the last war".

The food stockpile is an active impediment to all the essential work we actually need to do, like building a stronger navy to maintain control of the sea lanes or creating a SADN network so our cities can't get nuked or building infrastructure for refugees.

Or improving our actual food production.

We need food production to feed the refugees flooding into GDI territory. Those refugees need food on their plates right now, not stocked safely away in a bunker. Our political leaders and the general public are making bad decisions, and we're forced to go along because they are the boss, but let's not pretend that this is some kind of reasonable precaution. It's just trauma-fueled paranoia with a thin coating of justification.
The food storage target was set long before the present round of fighting was even seriously contemplated. We had the opportunity to renegotiate it if we felt that it was too burdensome to deal with during a shooting war and refugee crisis- with the caveat that the result would have involved promising much, much more total food storage "after the war is over," much like how we had to promise more Karachi to get an 'extension' on Karachi.

My honest opinion here is that this is an issue where the voters want major expansions of Stored Food levels. This is not just some politicians living out their personal trauma; it's GDI as a whole having national trauma and wanting the assurance that their food supply is not merely secured, but redundantly secured so that even "black swan" events like Kane popping out a superweapon cannot seriously hurt the food supply in the medium term.

And given the importance of public morale and the relatively limited resources it's taking us to hit this target beyond the Agriculture department's main budget anyway... I'm not sure this is a net loss. We have to spend resources on it, but there are limits?

Brotherhood! Unity! Peace!

Peace Through Power!

Worker-rats of the world unite! All you have to lose are your cardboard noodles!
Honestly, I am pretty sure the cardboard shitnoodles are Kane's idea in the first place, because they're broadly in keeping with his total indifference to human life as soon as said human life is not beneficial to him.

There's currently not a crisis. That's why. Things are difficult but by every measure possible we won the war with, at best, minor damage to significant civilian targets. We won, big time. We lost 0 ground. We had no civilian megadeath like we did barely a decade ago. This global war? MASSIVE VICTORY. We're "complaining" about winning so hard we have more population to deal with, more land to reclaim and more resources than ever. In return we've had to rebuild a couple factory complexes. GDI has so much collective trauma that barely registers. 60 years of war, calamity and destruction does that to people.
Yeah. I think in one turn's GDIOnline content, there was a thread about posters explicitly saying "Wow, I was all braced for this war to mean incredible hardship for us all on the home front and instead things have been... mostly the same, actually?"

It's like the difference between living through World War Two as France and living through World War Two as America.

That's why parliament doesn't feel like holding back. If we'd had a quarter of the damage the last big flare up caused to our civilian economy we'd be running around like we were on fire. They'd shut up about stockpiles and be ok if we were behind then.
Well... in that case, we'd be needing the stockpiles, and their limited size might actually be a problem, because that much damage would probably result in at least localized disruptions of food production and distribution.

We aren't super R limited for the remainder of the Plan, so I'd prefer to go with Agri-Mech 1+2 over Aquaponics.
We might want to keep Aquaponics as a cheap option for the start of the next Plan.
The problem with mechanization is that we get a single shot of +8 Food very predictably, then we have to roll a bunch of dice to get up to Phase 2... and we risk overkill. Which is always awkward when we're this close to the end of a Plan and we've got critical goals to hit. It'd stink to be in a position where we need to score 220 Progress on Mechanization Phase 2 and we really really really need to succeed, so we roll like five dice... and then it completes with just three of them.
 
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The problem with mechanization is that we get a single shot of +8 Food very predictably, then we have to roll a bunch of dice to get up to Phase 2... and we risk overkill.
It needs 5ish dice. We have 4 turns.
There is no risk, nor is it a real loss.
The loss of a potential windfall due to unexpectedly high progress is not worth our concern. That is just pointless paranoia.
 
Really I think we ought to be planning to finish stockpiles in Q3 if it's at all possible - that way we have a little slack in case of cursed dice.
 
Shock effort to also tend to have negative narrative effects most of the time. We if spend all the dice building storage in one to two turns, we are gonna be having complications.
 
It needs 5ish dice. We have 4 turns.
There is no risk, nor is it a real loss.
The loss of a potential windfall due to unexpectedly high progress is not worth our concern. That is just pointless paranoia.
The thing that makes me anxious is a situation like the one we're now facing with the freeze-drying plants, where repeated bad rolls mean that we have to choose between spending unnecessary dice we could really use elsewhere, and accepting delays in the outcome. Aquaponics is insensitive to that problem because there's no clear upper limit on just how many dice we can throw at it. Worst case, it rolls over and we get too much Food.

Really I think we ought to be planning to finish stockpiles in Q3 if it's at all possible - that way we have a little slack in case of cursed dice.
It depends. If we're in a position where we only need like two Stored Food more in 2061Q4, we're almost certainly fine, because "just throw a few more Agriculture dice at it" is a viable solution.

Also, spending Free dice in Q1, Q2, and Q3 to make this happen makes it harder to do the same thing in other areas, such as "be sure all our shipyards are done by then" and "be sure Enterprise finishes on time."
 
We aren't super R limited for the remainder of the Plan, so I'd prefer to go with Agri-Mech 1+2 over Aquaponics.
We might want to keep Aquaponics as a cheap option for the start of the next Plan.

Kudzu or Spider Cotton both still exist as R cheap projects that we should do at some point and will still be available at the start of the new Plan. As such, I'm not particularly worried about lacking R cheap options in Agriculture. I do want a solid Food Surplus, as that helps both insulate the supply from shocks. So, I'd prefer to put a die or two into Aquaponics this turn as that has a 75%/100% chance of completing the project, then switch over to Agri Mech for the rest of the Food production.
 
With regards to us having not suffered food shortages during the last war it's worth noting that the Regency war went very different to most . Due to the nat100 in intelligence gathering telling us exactly when it was going to happen we've spent effectively the entire war on the offence.

This is a big change to most wars against Nod that typically start with Nod victories (normally with some sort of Kane masterstroke) against an insufficiently prepared GDI, then ending with GDI able to leverage their industrial strength to beat Nod.

Food stockpiles would be very useful in that kind of war, allowing cut off urban areas to hold out before they can be relieved.
 
The thing that makes me anxious is a situation like the one we're now facing with the freeze-drying plants, where repeated bad rolls mean that we have to choose between spending unnecessary dice we could really use elsewhere, and accepting delays in the outcome. Aquaponics is insensitive to that problem because there's no clear upper limit on just how many dice we can throw at it. Worst case, it rolls over and we get too much Food.
I don't see how these situations are related. We already have delays in the freeze drying plants, and putting in another die is necessary. That is what bad rolls do. Aquaponics is not immune to the situation we have just had, as we have had a string of low rolls.
If we put 5 dice on Agri-Mech and we get good rolls, then it completes. End of story. Nothing to be anxious about. How are these situations similar?
It could technically complete with 4 dice, if they all rolled in the 90s range. We could try that, but we'd just be delaying completion while trying to save pocket change.
How does being anxious about good rolls make any sense?

So, I'd prefer to put a die or two into Aquaponics this turn as that has a 75%/100% chance of completing the project, then switch over to Agri Mech for the rest of the Food production.
If you put in 2 dice, then you'll be in the same situation next turn, looking at a half complete project thinking that you'll just finish off the current phase and then switch to the other project.
 
If you put in 2 dice, then you'll be in the same situation next turn, looking at a half complete project thinking that you'll just finish off the current phase and then switch to the other project.

Thats fair, I actually think something like:
Agriculture 4/4 Dice + 2 Free Die 70 R
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 4): 75/140 (1 Dice, 10 R) (75% chance)
-[] Freeze Dried Food Plants: 151/200 (1 Die, 20 R) (91% chance)
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 2): 38/150 (4 Dice, 40R) (99% chance, 67% chance Phase 3)

Would be a good selection of Projects (Assuming we are also putting a die on completing Fertilizer in LCI), if we can spare the Free Dice. We need ~13 dice on Food Stockpile Construction to meet the Plan Goals, and as such that means investing an average of 3-4 dice in Stockpile Construction each turn for the next year. Ideally leaning towards the 4 rather then the 3 to mitigate the chance of any last minute catastrophes. Even without Parliament glaring at us, we do need to invest in the stockpiles to achieve our Plan Goals.

The Food math for this works out to be:

22 (Current) + 4 (Fertilizer) + 6 * 75% (Aquaponics) + 5 * 91% (Freeze Dried) - 5 (Refugees) - 4 * 99% (Stockpile Phase 2) - 4 * 67% (Stockpile Phase 3) + 1 * 99% * 91% (Stockpile Phase 2 with Freeze Dried) + 1 * 67% * 91% (Stockpile Phase 3 with Freeze Dried) = ~24.9 Food Q2.
 
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