For Plan Goal reasons I agree. Reducing our dice in HI, Orbital or Military is not acceptable, even just by one die for just one turn. Our margins are too thin and the bonus received by AEVA requires ~25-30 dice rolled to roughly equate to the progress potentially rolled by that die (depending on the field die bonus). By the time we have spare energy and cap goods to complete it we would not have the time to make up that loss over the remainder of the Plan.
However, I think the probabilities will save us dice if we go for 3 dice initially over 4 dice. 3 dice initial investment + 0.18(chance project is incomplete)*(1 locked field die + 1 service die to complete) = 3.36 dice on average. Or if utilized on all but HI, Orbital or Military it would save us ~4 dice on average.
Yeah, that's why I said 27-36 after thinking about it a bit. There are fields where having a die locked isn't that big of a deal, and there are fields where it's kind of a disaster for us right now.
What it comes down to is that for some fields and in some circumstances, it's worth investing one more Service die and 20 R to avoid the risk of losing a die in that field. In other fields and circumstances, it isn't. We only have so many Services projects we actually want to accomplish, after all.
One of the AEVA's you didn't mention is Tiberium's. As Reallocation is rapidly approaching and with it the necessary mass investment in R production, I believe it to be a key investment. Perhaps not on the scale that Heavy Industry is, which I think should be our first choice once we have the spare energy and cap goods, as those two economic factors are our main limitation right now. Our biggest on going problem is the constant need for energy and cap goods, both are needed for the AEVA's themselves even.
The reason I didn't mention Tiberium is because I was torn on it. Right now, tib dice aren't really at such a premium, but at other times they may well be.
...
On a largely unrelated note... One thing I'm seriously considering is that maybe when we do 'income rebuild' in 2062 after reallocation, we should focus on vein mining. We've had plenty of foreshadowing that the tiberium under the Blue Zones needs to be dealt with, and it's pretty close to certainty that in late 2061 and early 2062 the armed forces will still be catching their breath and patching up the bullet holes from the Regency War,
at best, and that even if things go very well we're going to be mustering that offensive strength in preparation for Karachi, not having it available to cover stuff all over the world.
A serious investment in vein mining might add up to something like...
Tiberium 7/7 Dice + 7 Free die 280 R
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9) 5/1560 (14 Dice, 280 R)
--[] (99.8% chance Stage 6, 83% chance Stage 7, 20% chance Stage 8, 0.3% chance Stage 9)
--[] Median result: +150 RpT, +6 Yellow Zone mitigation, -6 Capital Goods
That's actually a pretty good first-turn income surge, and it can be done without putting any further strain on ZOCOM, which would otherwise probably still be a problem since ZOCOM is unlikely to end this Plan vastly more capable than it is now.
This is based on our existing +39 bonus and no other modifiers, and of course i may have miscalculated. But given that we're probably-hopefully going to just
have the Capital Goods in hand at the start of 2062, as opposed to being very hard up for them like in 2058... Maybe we should just go for this.