Threads Of Destiny(Eastern Fantasy, Sequel to Forge of Destiny)

Lena27 said:

I think two things are clear. Its one thing to increase MOI favorability and throw em a bone, it's another to give them more power and influence especially when we may regret it later. I don't think we should do that.
Point two: the checkpoints along the border need to be able to communicate with each other clearly, without tension or language barriers getting in the way. I think completely, totally separate posts is a bad idea...I mean I don't want to lower the White Plume stat either but we gotta be practical.
Hey, is there no option that doesn't increase Polar Theocracy influence?

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Technically option 3 doesn't increase their influence on the embassy, it just gives us their favor and reduces the White Plume favor.

So, functionally for our goals, we do want control over the main future trade routes, we do want an investigative body that has credibility enough with the nobles to declare the white skies innocent when blamed for things, we don't want outside agendas in that body, and we do want to keep building our neo-weilu powerbase with the southern nobles.

So, here's a way to model this decision - we've got two interlocking questions, and we need to evaluate them together.

First, do we want investigators, mixed checkpoints, or both? In light of Jaromila's support of investigators over mixed checkpoints, we probably don't want to go for just the checkpoints - she's among our best allies in actually seeing this thing through, and the dynamic shift seems like it would probably be to her detriment. Going for both over just investigations gets us a point of PT favorability, and results in a minor dynamics shift. It also opens us up to future issues involving the checkpoints, but probably mitigates other problems. That feels like a net positive, except for the other cost, which is losing a point of White Plumes Favorability. That feels like it would flip us over to net-negative. Still, the second question has an influence here.

That brings us to the second question, which is whether we invite MoI influence here. In either case, it nets us 1 point of MoI favorability at the cost of giving them some influence. In the case of choosing both methods, it also saves us from eating the White Plumes favorability drop.

To be honest, this feels like a pretty good place to give the MoI some influence. We have a mutual interest in border security, which absolutely won't be the case on cultural issues later, favorability now improves our rolls later, and in an ideal world we'd like to strive for decent favorability with every faction. Maybe it would be trading a better summit result now for some friction later, but any positives we can get now should snowball into more buy-in from all parties involved, making future issues resolvable. Frankly, I don't expect MoI favorability to get cheaper later, so doubling down here feels correct.

Working backwards from accepting the MoI here, I think that answers our first question as well: without the loss of a WP point, both measures together are probably a net win over just investigators. Option 5 strikes me as a winner. It beats 2 by improving our position with PT at only the cost of the lesser dynamics shift, and is probably more secure besides.

If you're absolutely convinced that MoI influence here is worse than the concessions we're otherwise going to be forced to make to them later, then the cost of losing WP favorability strikes me as too high, and I suggest you vote for just the investigators.

Remember, though, that the most important factor in CRX's position moving forward is going to be *making the summit successful*. We're going to be judged on our ability to make this thing work, first and foremost, and that is going to require us to make concessions somewhere. Here feels like the right place to me.

Mmmm. Personally I think this is the first in a series of choices we are going to get that plays the short term against the long term.

So, this vote is about two things:

1. Who to involve in the investigation teams to check for the validity of cases.
2. The possibility of the implementation of checkpoints for roaming WS-aligned nomads

Options 3, 4, and 5 address the possibility of a second point. Initially, I was in favour of option 4 would because we can probably recover the lost favourability, and I was interested in the changed dynamics and how it can factor into future votes.

However, discussions have brought up how it's disadvantageous to Jaromila's stances on certain policies. Since she's our WS mirror, that's a net negative. It may also increase tensions with the aligned tribes if their promised freedom is restricted, so it's counterintuitive. So, I don't think options 3, 4, and 5 are any good.

This only the question of who to involve in the investigation teams: Options 1 and Options 2.

Giving the MoI more influence here is probably not in our best interests. In the previous vote, the bone we threw was something they were very skilled in, Law and arbitration, and the suggested member will probably be one person in a panel of 4, so their effective influence is diluted. Secondly, we had the Head of the Southern ES MoI (or something similar. I don't really remember his title) promise to send unbiased judges here.

For this vote, their influence is much less controlled. Firstly, it would mean that they would not only have influences in judging cases, but also in what cases get judged and what evidence is shown to judges. Secondly, they can overreach into other portions of the Embassy, and we can't do anything about it since it'll be a natural consequence of their responsibilities.
Which is not a good combination for xenophobic people whose interests oppose us.

That together is already too much power over the justice system at the Embassy. But here, we'll have no personal guarantee of the quality of agents assigned, which is very important for this role. While the MoI has some experience with investigation, but it is mainly "find threats and kill them", not "work with people to understand and resolve conflict".

We've already had a glimpse of investigations may go with the dispute which was gone over with Jin Tae. Looking at that, I don't really have a lot of confidence in the MoI's ability to be unbiased and not abuse their power. So I don't think option 2 can work.

The Crows, however, have shown to be objective in their tasks and diplomatic investigations, such as not immediately judging Astronomer Wu, not taking offence from Zheng Fu, etc. Even though they're part of the Polar Theocracy, they are also very detached from it and only follow the Crowfather, so the relative impact of the Theocracy's influence will be small.

Secondly, with Ministry influence in the judges, Theocracy influence in the investigators can counterbalance things to ensure fairness.

So I think option 1, a split of ES/WS investigators, with some Crows from the theocracy, is the best for us here.

While favourability is important , meeting our personal goals is even more important here. And option 1 is the one that both fits our long-term goals and minimises our loss of meaningful influence.

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

There are strong arguments against MOI involvement and I do agree with them but then who the hell are we going to stuff in the policing force to counterbalance the Crow involvement? The assumption of crows being unbiased or objective is unreliable since we don't have a large sample size to draw that conclusion. White plume isn't suited for this kind of operation. we cannot draw from specific Sects or Clans. Getting people from the Ministry of Law makes no sense after rejecting MOI. Cai doesn't have a dedicated policing force to draw candidates from unless Shu Yue has subordinates under her. We can just recruit people with suitable ways and assemble a team but they wouldn't have the cohesion to counterbalance Crow interests.
As for the checkpoint thing we would have to refuse it without a doubt. Right now the overall strategy is to use military might to subdue the more war-like tribes represented by 12 stars and drive the tribes that hope for peace into white sky arms and then deal with white skies diplomatically. Weakening white skys attraction due to them strengthening their control over integrated tribes is just going to strengthen 12 Stars position in the long term. Besides it is going to harm jaromillas position and we cant allow that

Theoretically, a detachment of the new Horned Legion (and isn't it cute that the duchess threw us a bone with that obvious weilu callback?) Would be the best force.

Independent of local nobles, not white plume, not imperial.

promethus said:

There are strong arguments against MOI involvement and I do agree with them but then who the hell are we going to stuff in the policing force to counterbalance the Crow involvement? The assumption of crows being unbiased or objective is unreliable since we don't have a large sample size to draw that conclusion. White plume isn't suited for this kind of operation. we cannot draw from specific Sects or Clans. Getting people from the Ministry of Law makes no sense after rejecting MOI. Cai doesn't have a dedicated policing force to draw candidates from unless Shu Yue has subordinates under her. We can just recruit people with suitable ways and assemble a team but they wouldn't have the cohesion to counterbalance Crow interests.
As for the checkpoint thing we would have to refuse it without a doubt. Right now the overall strategy is to use military might to subdue the more war-like tribes represented by 12 stars and drive the tribes that hope for peace into white sky arms and then deal with white skies diplomatically. Weakening white skys attraction due to them strengthening their control over integrated tribes is just going to strengthen 12 Stars position in the long term. Besides it is going to harm jaromillas position and we cant allow that

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If it's an evenly split team, I assume we get some say into the ES side of the investigators. And the Theocracy would get a say in the WS side, ie the Crows.

All our interactions with the Crows, both in and out of story, have been good, imo. When Wu was exploring up top, they sought to here his side and reasoning before leaving him to his own devices.

When Zheng Fu was being rude, they were understanding and took it as a form of cultural misunderstanding. They were cool about Ling Qi's access to information from the Crone, and when they asked for something, it was reasonable: something to reduce friction between workers and soldiers since they'll be working together for the foreseeable future.

They are not beholden to anyone but the Crowfather, and so can't be easily bosses around by politics too. I don't think their a counterbalance on their own. If not, again, we'll have ES investigators in it too.

I'm going to speak caution to giving the MoI more influence, here and in this way.

The concession we made in the prior vote to bring in MoI-approved judge(s) had some mediating factors. First, obviously, is that they're not members of the MoI directly. It's a more generic matter of imperial representation/influence, with the officials coming from the capital. Obviously this is somewhat academic since the Ministry of Law is also an institution of the imperial throne, and judges from the capital, and approved by the MoI, especially so, but the distinction still does matter. The other factor is that a judicial representative of their interests is limited in scope and context in terms of influence, being relatively contained.

With a policing/investigative arm, the dynamic is quite a bit different. We're likely to get straight up MoI agents, or else MoL agents who are de facto MoI plants, and the nature of their job involves a much freer hand in traversing the border and involving themselves in its affairs, even if it's nominally related to investigating cross-border complaints. This isn't just a quantitatively greater concession, though it is also that since there's going to be more investigators than judges, it's a significantly greater qualitative concession in the nature of access and breadth of avenues to influence it hands the MoI.

Others have talked about the wider potential for MoI involvement to cause discord and issues, and that's a warranted concern, but I'm probably more worried about the political impacts even if things go right. Chiefly, impacts on Renxiang's political project.

Gentle reminder that Renxiang's ultimate goals include overthrowing Cai Shenhua... and doing it peacefully. That's a pretty heavy lift. It's also fundamentally a political one. And not the kinds of politics that necessarily respect provincial borders. What we do at this summit will colour Renxiang's reputation across the empire. The first priority is success, yes, but there's everyone's personal bugbears to consider as well.

Involving the MoI directly in policing efforts related to border relations will hurt Renxiang's credibility among the empire's Dukes. I tried to think of other ways to say it, but blunt is best. Like @Erebeal said, we personally don't care much about ceding to imperial authorities, in principle. Heck, the Cai clan as a whole doesn't care much about their reputation there, either. But others do, and Renxiang's project isn't just to prove that the Cai are a stable ruling family for the Emerald Seas, already a tall order; it's to do that while deposing the woman who seized the throne of Xiangmen in the first place.

It's especially problematic because the Cai's, and Renxiang's, biggest peer supporters at the moment are the Bai and the Xuan. The Bai are feuding with the throne right now, and they hate the MoI. Plus innately likely to view deference on security-adjacent matters as weakness or unseriousness. The Xuan currently enjoy positive relations with polities outside the empire, and they oppose interference from the throne.

Unfortunately, we aren't just balancing MoI opinion of us against the costs of them opposing our project more strongly. We also have to balance the tone we set for the rest of the empire's view of us, including the appearance of strength or weakness in the face of MoI pressure. Like Renxiang said, it's about Legitimacy. Letting the capital seat 1 in 4 judges to assuage their worries isn't too hard to spin. Letting the capital staff our border incident response staff is something altogether more difficult to brush off as coming from a place of strength and confidence.

promethus said:

There are strong arguments against MOI involvement and I do agree with them but then who the hell are we going to stuff in the policing force to counterbalance the Crow involvement? The assumption of crows being unbiased or objective is unreliable since we don't have a large sample size to draw that conclusion. White plume isn't suited for this kind of operation. we cannot draw from specific Sects or Clans. Getting people from the Ministry of Law makes no sense after rejecting MOI. Cai doesn't have a dedicated policing force to draw candidates from unless Shu Yue has subordinates under her. We can just recruit people with suitable ways and assemble a team but they wouldn't have the cohesion to counterbalance Crow interests.
As for the checkpoint thing we would have to refuse it without a doubt. Right now the overall strategy is to use military might to subdue the more war-like tribes represented by 12 stars and drive the tribes that hope for peace into white sky arms and then deal with white skies diplomatically. Weakening white skys attraction due to them strengthening their control over integrated tribes is just going to strengthen 12 Stars position in the long term. Besides it is going to harm jaromillas position and we cant allow that

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Oof, post too big.

The distinction is staffing the investigative body with Ministry of Law personnel who are from the Emerald Seas rather than from a curated list of capital agents or outright MoI agents. People like Diao Hualing, who is a Ministry of Law investigator.

Speaking of, it's hard to say cause we don't really have a grasp on her political or career goals, but it'd be fun if she put in for a transfer to the embassy investigative force. I miss her. I'd also settle for getting her recommendations though. We do want the Diao minimally annoyed with us(btw, the Diao's stated priority was also minimizing MoI/throne attention in/on provincial affairs).

promethus said:

Getting people from the Ministry of Law makes no sense after rejecting MOI.

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The Emerald Sea Ministry of Law is not the same as the Imperial Ministry of Law.

And yeah, it's worth remembering that the MoI are agents of Inexorable Justice, manifested through spirits of Death. Great when you're trying to deal with entrenched corruption. Not necessarily ideal when you're trying to deal with sensitive international disputes, even without their prejudices.

[X] Support the idea of mixed manned checkpoints on designated routes through which White Sky aligned tribes will move when their routes demand passing close by. (+1 Polar Theocracy Favorability. -1 to White Plume Favorability. Shift in internal White Sky nomad dynamics)

I'm mostly interested in the shift in White Sky nomad dynamics. I know this won't be a popular choice because of the -1 to White Plume Favorability.

• Mixed maned checkpoints on designated routes = greater security and promote better cooperation.
• Checkpoints might create an effective channel for communication. Issues will arise and there's a chance of this reducing misundertandings.
• I think this might have the White Sky nomads move with confidence
• It eases the burden on the respective security forces.
• Mixed manned checkpoints dimonstrate mutual commitment peace. It might help in fostering trust and understanding.
• I also wonder if this proposal will strengthen the position of people who support diplomatic collaboration with in the WS tribes? More united confederation?
• Investigative arm attached to the judiciary helps the with effectiveness and inpartiality.

I think I might be wrong with about half of these but for now I can't think of why.

Oliver_Twister said:

So, this vote is about two things:

1. Who to involve in the investigation teams to check for the validity of cases.
2. The possibility of the implementation of checkpoints for roaming WS-aligned nomads

Options 3, 4, and 5 address the possibility of a second point. Initially, I was in favour of option 4 would because we can probably recover the lost favourability, and I was interested in the changed dynamics and how it can factor into future votes.

However, discussions have brought up how it's disadvantageous to Jaromila's stances on certain policies. Since she's our WS mirror, that's a net negative. It may also increase tensions with the aligned tribes if their promised freedom is restricted, so it's counterintuitive. So, I don't think options 3, 4, and 5 are any good.

This only the question of who to involve in the investigation teams: Options 1 and Options 2.

Giving the MoI more influence here is probably not in our best interests. In the previous vote, the bone we threw was something they were very skilled in, Law and arbitration, and the suggested member will probably be one person in a panel of 4, so their effective influence is diluted. Secondly, we had the Head of the Southern ES MoI (or something similar. I don't really remember his title) promise to send unbiased judges here.

For this vote, their influence is much less controlled. Firstly, it would mean that they would not only have influences in judging cases, but also in what cases get judged and what evidence is shown to judges. Secondly, they can overreach into other portions of the Embassy, and we can't do anything about it since it'll be a natural consequence of their responsibilities.
Which is not a good combination for xenophobic people whose interests oppose us.

That together is already too much power over the justice system at the Embassy. I admit that the MoI also has some experience with investigation, but it is mainly "find threats and kill them", not "work with people to understand and resolve conflict".

We've already had a glimpse of investigations may go with the dispute which was gone over with Jin Tae. Looking at that, I don't really have a lot of confidence in the MoI's ability to be unbiased and not abuse their power. So I don't think option 2 can work.

The Crows, however, have shown to be objective in their tasks and diplomatic investigations, such as not immediately judging Astronomer Wu, not taking offence from Zheng Fu, etc. Even though they're part of the Polar Theocracy, they are also very detached from it and only follow the Crowfather, so the relative impact of the Theocracy's influence will be small.

Secondly, with Ministry influence in the judges, Theocracy influence in the investigators can counterbalance things to ensure fairness.

So I think option 1, a split of ES/WS investigators, with some Crows from the theocracy, is the best best for us here.

While numbers can be important here, we are ultimately trying to reach out personal interests too, and that's the option that meets them best, imo.

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

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Do you think implemementing checkpoints for roaming WS-aligned nomadds be seen as restricting their freedom to move across their "ancestral lands"? The tribes seem to value their nomadic lifestyle, or am I miss remembering. I though I recalled something about their ability to traverse the territories for generations. But I guess this is not a concern since the option doesn't say anything about a loss of favourability? I trust yrsillar not to lie about the effects, but I wonder about knock on effects that are not quite straight forward.

And an investigative arm is valuable in the long run, But I can't help but think that mixed manned checkpoints feels more proactive and progressive?

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

Kind of arrived at this one by default. I don't want to give the MoI more influence in this way, for practical and political reasons. And the system of checkpoints that is being proposed is problematic for external and internal reasons, both significantly on a personal level.

Giving the MoI leave to interact on the front lines of border controversies gives them more opportunity to screw it up, whether intentionally(I doubt it) or as a result of their pro-imperial dogmatism. It also makes us look weak in the eyes of the empire's Ducal clans, which is a problematic way to launch Renxiang's imperial political career considering her end goals.

After rereading the checkpoint options, it's clear to me that the Polar Theocracy faction in WS is trying to use this to advance a program of more tightly controlling nomad movements in their own territories as well. It's definitely an argument they've had before, not dissimilar to the Emerald Seas' internal squabbling over the best way to manage conquered tribes. I don't think we can afford to throw Jaromila under the sled like that, even if I thought it was the right thing to do, which I'm skeptical of.

Because, this choice would affect our own management of our own adopted cloud tribes, an effort which I think most of us are broadly in favor of doing as soon as we feasibly can. We just don't know what it'll look like yet. Committing to the checkpoints here restricts our own future decisions on how to handle that process, and probably makes it more difficult to onboard some tribes, just as much as it stymies Jaromila's priorities I think. In the long run.

I'm wary of over-committing when we don't know what our own footing is going to look like. How else are we supposed to monopolistically profit ensure things progress with, and into, peace?

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

Yeah, I think I've ended up here as well.

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

We gain less from this, but we don't lose anything either.

Theres no need to mourn holding the status quo to a degree here. The balance we're currently at is highly advantageous to us, for reasons Erebeal and Abeo have already gone into

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

While keeping MoI influence to embassy low might be important the problem with that stance is any chance we get to raise their favorability likely going to come with influence increase, so it's better to pick and choose when we increase it instead of trying to deny them.

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges… and you can proactively offer Ministry involvement to match the Crows. (+1 to Ministry of Integrity Favorability, +20% to next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Increased Theocracy and Ministry Influence on the Embassy.)

Solely because Crows and Ministry Agents brooding together seems cool and funny to me. They can bond over being mysterious and share the same dark corner in a tavern somewhere.

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

Checkpoints may be a good idea, but i don't want tomake the White Plume mad at us, and every checkpoint is a potential point of failure.

[X] Promise to push for an investigative arm to be created attached to the judiciary here. It would be split much like the judges. (No Favor change, +20% on next roll for Polar Theocracy Favorability. Theocracy influence on Embassy Increased)

Crows seem cool, I trust them.