Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

noncannon · Apr 23, 2021

1617 Initial Results Snapshot of frequently-changed stats (1617 Start)

Aranfan said:
Base Influence: 5 Influence, 2 Authority

Naval Status (Yllython Mor): 8 (Poor)
Naval Status (Saffron Sea): 2 (Anemic)
Naval Status (Salt Sea): 4 (Weak)
Naval Status (Monsoon Sea): 6 (Poor)
(Combined Yllython+Saffron Naval: 10 [Average])
Total Naval Score: 20

Professional Army Formations:
Iron Flower Banner Company (Pike & Shot [crossbow]) - Deployed to Western Wall Front
Heaven's Hawk Banner Company (Heavy Cavalry) - Deployed to Western Wall Front

Thunder Plateau Front: 670,000 men & Dragon General Dafydd.
Western Wall Front: 270,000 men & Both Banner Companies
Highlander Front: 30,000 Men
Reserve: 30,000 Men

Treasury Status: 5.5/10
Income: +.6

Expensive Actions subtract 1 from treasury status, Profitable actions add 1 to it. Very is x2, Extremely is x3, Ruinously/Insanely is x4.
Income adds itself to the Treasury Status every 5 years.

Provinces and Loyalty

Core: Rock Solid
Memory of Spirits: Rock Solid
Txolla: Unshakable
Hathytta: Decently Loyal
Western Wall: In Rebellion
Greenshore: Solid
Tinshore: Rock Solid
Thunder Plateau: Under Foreign Occupation

Client States:

Tin Tribes

Aranfan said:
-

Opinions of you:

Khemetri: 4/10 [C] R
Magyar: 7/10
Ealam: 7/10
Vynta: 6/10
Ruma: 5/10
Pamplona: 8/10
Abyss: 5/10
Hung: 8/10 [C]
Rexum Germanum: 5/10
-Hasum 4/10
-Behryvar 4/10
-Ochrur ?/10
Tarta: 5/10
Styrmyr: 5/10
Amber Road: 8/10 [C], 2/5 [A]
Norsca: 4/10
Berba: 5/10
Hellas: 3/10 [C] R
Pulska: 3/5

Melkut Ymaryn: 60

Additional Stats (1617 Initial Results)
Prestige:: 60 (+5 projected)
Authority: 2
Influence: 3 (+2 pending, +1 projected)
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 9.0
Other Notables: None
Revaunchists Appeasement: Mass Levy
Txollan Concerns Met: War with Black Sheep

Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion)
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [1.875]
(These estimates are probably out of date. see 1613 Start for latest updates)

Next Guild Income Within: 1618
Treasury: 5.5 (+0.6(0.3 projected) mid-1620,1625... ; +1 mid-1618,1620,...; -1 mid-year from Mass Levy)
Unoccupied Banner Companies: Both on Western Wall front

Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Spreading the Warding, Amber Road [1 Influence]: 1620 (1621)
Create Sleeper Cells, Black Sheep [2 Influence]: our choice
~~Counter Espionage [2 Influence]: ???~~
Train Thunder Plateau Administrators, Elective [1 Influence]: (1.4 * [Length of Black Sheep War + 2 years])

Revaunchists Weakenings: 4 (-1) = 3?

Tin Tribes Independence
White Peace with Hellas
Amber Road Independence
Refrain from conquering Stymyr to mountains
Strengthening: Blame Western Wall

3 weakenings likely reduces "antsy": no more half-measures -> reduced half-measure roll weights

Sacred Warding Notes: Can provide to three nations after Hung delegation returns (1616-1618). (Source)

All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. I believe that income is added during the Initial Results part of a year, though the exact ordering within that stage is unclear.

Oshha · Apr 23, 2021

I am going to assume we accept the terms in this analysis. So next turn, we are going to have 2 Authority and 5 Influence to work with next turn. For those wondering this is because of the Authority/Influence cap as we can only have ten of those two things combined.

I'm thinking that we look into peacing out the Black Sheep next turn and opening up communications with the Highlanders since we can now afford the Influence loss of doing the latter. Not sure beyond that. Maybe some favourable trade deals to improve opinion and lower prestige? Or perhaps taking out some loans from the Kus?

Kiba · Apr 23, 2021

Oshha said:
I am going to assume we accept the terms in this analysis. So next turn, we are going to have 2 Authority and 5 Influence to work with next turn. For those wondering this is because of the Authority/Influence cap as we can only have ten of those two things combined.

I'm thinking that we look into peacing out the Black Sheep next turn and opening up communications with the Highlanders since we can now afford the Influence loss of doing the latter. Not sure beyond that. Maybe some favourable trade deals to improve opinion and lower prestige? Or perhaps taking out some loans from the Kus?

Moar loans, please.

And yes, negotiators to Highlanders ASAP.

noncannon · Apr 23, 2021

Oshha said:
I'm thinking that we look into peacing out the Black Sheep next turn and opening up communications with the Highlanders since we can now afford the Influence loss of doing the latter.

Peacing out the Black Sheep probably means we reach 69 prestige, the Khem come to us with their ultimatum which, if we accept, means we need all the Influence we have.

Then again...

Conquering 1/5th of Thunder Plateau gave +2 Prestige. Adding to 2/3rds gives +5 prestige. So, by this estimate, 2/3rds of Thunder Plateau gives 7 Prestige, which means the remainder 1/3 might only be worth 3.5 Prestige, for a total of 10.5. So there is a possibility we don't actually reach 69.

We should build up a further Prestige buffer to make this more likely, and then take try to peace out the Black Sheep. More loans (which we'll be needing anyway if fighting Khem), maybe throw in an unfavorable trade deal with Amber Road.

...

Edit: huge calculation mistake. ~~Going to take another look.~~ Should be resolved.

Edit 2: but if and when we do this, also be ready for failure.

Edit 3: A Vynta unfavorable trade deal (bringing their opinion to 7/10) might be good if we want them to contest the embargo.

Nyvis · Apr 23, 2021

Smaller administrative units for farming is probably not great, but they're generally keeping to the model and them selecting their administrator could be a step in the right direction, considering.

I wonder how they'll select them though. Election from their nobility? Because I can't see more universal suffrage happening yet.

Kiba · Apr 23, 2021

LordEdric said:
take the deal, then we can finish off 1 war sooner and focus more on the western wall

-3 influence is such a bitter pill to swallow anyway.

Nyvis said:
Smaller administrative units for farming is probably not great, but they're generally keeping to the model and them selecting their administrator could be a step in the right direction, considering.

I wonder how they'll select them though. Election from their nobility? Because I can't see more universal suffrage happening yet.

Might lead to high labor high productive farms. Why? Unless the farmers form a communes to manage larger plot of lands, farming wheat and other staple aren't really practical, and we already are going to gain a further breadbasket with the conquest of Ukraine anyway.

tenchifew · Apr 23, 2021

Oshha said:
I am going to assume we accept the terms in this analysis. So next turn, we are going to have 2 Authority and 5 Influence to work with next turn. For those wondering this is because of the Authority/Influence cap as we can only have ten of those two things combined.

I'm thinking that we look into peacing out the Black Sheep next turn and opening up communications with the Highlanders since we can now afford the Influence loss of doing the latter. Not sure beyond that. Maybe some favourable trade deals to improve opinion and lower prestige? Or perhaps taking out some loans from the Kus?

Honestly, why peacing out with BS?
We are winning, quite decisively at that.
Peacing out would jump our prestige, not something I am looking forward to.
I want to see where we get with the rebels first, actually.

Kiba · Apr 23, 2021

tenchifew said:
Honestly, why peacing out with BS?
We are winning, quite decisively at that.
Peacing out would jump our prestige, not something I am looking forward to.
I want to see where we get with the rebels first, actually.

Peacing out mean the Dragon General is free to crush WW or face the Khem, whichever is first.

Themarineguy · Apr 23, 2021

Though, considering it looks like we could stave off the demand until the Black sheep are conquered, we would actually have a decent chance to fend off an invasion. Honestly, the biggest problem may become the economical ramifications of an attempted embargo due to the numbers freed up by ending the black sheep front.

Kiba · Apr 23, 2021

We can't continue the war indefinitely. Better to end the war with the BS.

Aranfan · Apr 23, 2021

Nyvis said:
Smaller administrative units for farming is probably not great, but they're generally keeping to the model and them selecting their administrator could be a step in the right direction, considering.

I wonder how they'll select them though. Election from their nobility? Because I can't see more universal suffrage happening yet.

The smaller plots is more "no latifundia" rather than "20 different plots in every village".

As for how they'll select their administrators, that's why it's a step towards democratization rather than actual democracy.

Kiba · Apr 23, 2021

Eh, scratch their thought. The administrators can still tell the farmers to farm the same thing and work together as if they were a larger farm.

Nyvis · Apr 23, 2021

Kiba said:
Might lead to high labor high productive farms. Why? Unless the farmers form a communes to manage larger plot of lands, farming wheat and other staple aren't really practical, and we already are going to gain a further breadbasket with the conquest of Ukraine anyway.

I don't think it's that level of small since it's still one noble for a bunch of peasants.

Aranfan said:
The smaller plots is more "no latifundia" rather than "20 different plots in every village".

Sure, but we're also relying on some pretty large scale ecosystem engineering for our farming and that takes coordination at scale. It's not dramatic and we can definitely give it to them but I'm not convinced it's an improvement.

Aranfan said:
As for how they'll select their administrators, that's why it's a step towards democratization rather than actual democracy.

Are noble republics closer to democracy than absolute monarchies? Both kinda require a revolution to get there most of the time

Aranfan · Apr 23, 2021

Nyvis said:
Sure, but we're also relying on some pretty large scale ecosystem engineering for our farming and that takes coordination at scale.

Sure, but that's what the priests and nobles are for. Remember, managing farms is a job in the Melkut Ymaryn, not a property relation.

Oshha · Apr 23, 2021

tenchifew said:
Honestly, why peacing out with BS?
We are winning, quite decisively at that.
Peacing out would jump our prestige, not something I am looking forward to.
I want to see where we get with the rebels first, actually.

We cannot maintain the Mass Levy forever. Even if we can pay for it all, we got social and morale concerns from 'setting the polity on fire to go super saiyan'.

Aranfan said:
Can you? Even nationalist revaunchism can only sustain war on such a scale for so long in terms of home front morale.

Aranfan said:
True. But your previous wars were much smaller in scope, and didn't involve setting the polity on fire to go super saiyan.

We are decisively winning and we have the threat of the Khem ultimatum. The sooner we end the war with the Black Sheep, the sooner we can end the Mass Levy before its negative effects begin to show and the greater the chance we will be able to use the Mass Levy against the Khem if we end up going to war.

Oshha · Apr 23, 2021