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Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

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noncannon said:
There's no way around making up Caspian Sea geography (assuming the Salt Sea moves away from it), but the landmasses that replace the Arabian peninsula might correspond well enough that the peninsula geography can be transferred over.
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Yeah, I can just fill in the caspian with some plains, I suppose.

EDIT: Working on a rough draft for @Aranfan 's approval. I'm going to try to add as much of the significant geography from the original quest maps as possible while still keeping as much of OTL earth as well to make things simpler.
 
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noncannon said:
There's no way around making up Caspian Sea geography (assuming the Salt Sea moves away from it), but the landmasses that replace the Arabian peninsula might correspond well enough that the peninsula geography can be transferred over.

(Ideally, we won't have to worry about the replacement landmasses regardless, because it's unlikely the Ymaryn would go there.)

I'm assuming that the geography is unchanged other than pasting in the seas, but if that's too much of a disconnect, one can imagine that it's an average of [that sea level] and the actual Earth height for, say, 100 km around the sea.
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The issue is that there are some obvious differences that indicate more subtle changes. Frex, the Himalayas are wonky, cause the Hung have two prongs instead of just the 1 china had OTL. We also have no idea what's going on in the afgahnistan region.

Then there's the issue that not!South America doesn't fit not!africa, which messes up the plate tectonics hugely.
 
Oshha said:
We lack the actions to do that right now unless you want to cut back on war prep. Personally, I would rather get our main expenses (two more points of warships) out of the way when we got the money for it and keep 1 Treasury in reserve in case we need to pull a city levy or something else expensive. By the time we need to spend more or start saving more, we should have the Guild Industry recovered.
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Rhys is response for our income being -0.3 rather than -1.3. Currently, our treasury is 2.6, and you're proposing we go to treasury level 1.6.

If you're reserving the treasury for a city levy, then the it will cost us 1 treasury, bringing us from 1.6 to 0.6. if Rhys died before the next tax period, which is in 1605, we need to take action to ensure we don't die. If he dies in 1604, we need to take immediate action. That might mean asking for a loan.

Suppose we conquered Tinshore. We get 0.5 income, bringing our income from -0.3 to 0.2 but in reality, it's actually -0.8, we still die with 0.6 siting in the treasury.

Of course, the calculus keeps changing as we engage in effort to acquire more treasury.
 
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Kiba said:
Rhys is response for our income being -0.3 rather than -1.3. Currently, our treasury is 2.6, and you're proposing we go to treasury level 1.6.

If you're reserving the treasury for a city levy, then the it will cost us 1 treasury, bringing us from 1.6 to 0.6. if Rhys died before the next tax period, which is in 1605, we need to take action to ensure we don't die. If he dies in 1604, we need to take immediate action. That might mean asking for a loan.
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Rhys dying next turn counts as 'something else expensive'. If we really do need more money, we can just sell guns for 0.5 Treasury instead of 1 Treasury and we can do that next turn or the turn after. Ultimately, we need to spend money to build the warships at some point and thanks to revanchism, we need to build those warships sooner rather than later.

There are no totally safe options. If we make ourselves financially secure in the short term, it will be because it has costed us in other areas including our long term financially security as we do have to build those warships sooner or later and doing it later will be more painful.
 
I forgot, building warships at this point should actually increase our income, although pirates are asserting themselves.
 
Kiba said:
The war in Txolla haven't ended yet! Plus, there might be shipbuilding delay. Unless you're suggesting a diplomacy action that's way nicer?
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We send a Diplo action next turn and presumably invade the turn after if they refuse since that's when our navy finishes up. Two years will hopefully be enough time for the war in Txolla to wrap up.
 
Kiba said:
The war in Txolla haven't ended yet! Plus, there might be shipbuilding delay. Unless you're suggesting a diplomacy action that's way nicer?
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There is a chance that they might accept it things aren't going too badly and worst comes to the worst, we can just delay actually going to war against then until we are ready to. On the other hand, we could push back the diplo action from 1603 to 1604.

I would like to do it in the next year or two since it seems like having a good chance of them accepting due to beginning to get in a bad position, but not yet haven't gotten used to said bad position or beginning to adapt to it.

Hmm, @Aranfan Is there a reason that we don't have the option to found another Banner Company? Not that I want to do it, but I am curious about why the option isn't there.
 
Oshha said:
There is a chance that they might accept it things aren't going too badly and worst comes to the worst, we can just delay actually going to war against then until we are ready to. On the other hand, we could push back the diplo action from 1603 to 1604.
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I thought if we don't go to war after casus beli is established, people are going to scream bloody murder?
 
I agree with most of Oshha's plan (I'd prefer delaying Pamplona's assistance, but it looks like it's getting harder every year, and I'm worried of where the sold bombards might otherwise go). However, we're running out of Profitable markets, so I want an additional action to find some, even if it's overtime.

The specific explore action doesn't matter to me. I choose North Saffron because it's the most likely to have big markets; but Ealam is plausibly also a good target (threatened by nomads, might be leery of their neighbor Kuma; but might not be big enough to be profitable). Berba would be a good target, but I'm worried about the Khemetri (especially their fleet, which are rumored to be hanging out there).

[] Plan Find Additional Markets Overtime
-[] Authority: Sell Bombards, Pamplona: Does Pamplona want bombards? (75%, 1 year, profitable)
-[] Influence: Assist Bureaucratic Reform, Pamplona: Pamplona is having increasing difficulty maintaining their heavy cavalry without giving the knights their own grazing fields. However, they have seen the direction that led the Doych, and they want to avoid it. So they have come to you seeking assistance in reforming their bureaucracy so that they may better marshal people and resources. (85%, 5 Years, +3 Pamplona Opinion, -5 for all rolls while in effect, +5 Prestige, Narrative Effects)
-[] Influence: A Census: Knowing how many people obey you and where they actually are is a great help in doing the work of governance. (95%. 1 Year. +1 Influence)
-[] Influence: Construct Warships, Redshore: With unified control of the Yllython shattered, there are going to be pirates and rebels in the sea closest to the core. The people need to build warships to suppress pirates and fight enemies. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[] Influence: Construct Warships, New Blackmouth: The shipyards of New Blackmouth are once more ready and operational. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[] Influence: Diplomatic Overview, North Saffron: You have no knowledge what barbarian powers are important in the realm of the Syffronites. In your current position of weakness that ignorance could be deadly. (85%, 1 year. Overview of North Saffron powers.)
-[] Work Overtime (+1 temp Influence, +Stress)
-[] Estimated Statistics:
--[] Authority: 1 (unchanged)
--[] Influence: 4 --> 2-3 (likely 3)
--[] Prestige: 42 (unchanged)
--[] Treasury: 2.6 --> 1.6
--[] Stress: 0 --> 2
--[] Revaunchist Actions: Construct Warships x2 (expires 1603), Pamplona reform (expires 1607)
--[] Txollan Benefits: Banner Company deployed (indefinite), Black Sheep defense(?)
--[] Other Notables: -5 to all rolls for 5 years
 
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noncannon said:
However, we're running out of profitable markets, so I want an additional action to find some, even if it's overtime.
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We are not. Aranfan has said that Sell Bombard actions that are Probably Profitable just means a chance of 0.5 Treasury rather than 1 Treasury if the action succeeds. Furthermore, it takes three actions to get profits from a new action. By the time that we can sell bombards due to a new market, any concerns about needing the money would have taken place. If you want to save money, you will need to delay the construction of the warships.

noncannon said:
-[] Estimated Statistics:
--[] Authority: 1 (unchanged)
--[] Influence: 4 --> 3
--[] Prestige: 42 (unchanged)
--[] Treasury: 2.6 --> 1.6
--[] Stress: 0 --> 2
--[] Revaunchist Actions: Construct Warships x2 (expires 1603), Pamplona reform (expires 1607)
--[] Txollan Benefits: Banner Company deployed (indefinite), Black Sheep defense(?)
--[] Other Notables: -5 to all rolls for 5 years
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None of this should be part of the plan.
 
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So, Melket Balthazar of Txolla, what might his priorities be and how might they differ from Bedwyr's?

The obvious one is that his own lands, those of his kin and main supporters will be concentrated in Txolla rather than the old core so that's where he has to bring home the bacon/get some graft in. Bedwyr did Ylthon shipbuilding, guild rebuilding investment, repairing north core agriculture - all necessary but also all heavy spending in areas where Bedwyr and allies could profit. Balthazar might favour general agricultural investment (Txolla lowlands are incredibly productive even by Ymayn standards so that's where a lot of that money will go), Monsoon shipbuilding, fortifications, encouraging Monsoon sea trade and so on.

Militarily, his home province is the active war zone as Balthazar takes power. Not only that, he will have campaigned against Maximillian personally. To Bedwyr, retaking the the Thunder Plateau and reintegrating it culturally was an obligation. Balthazar wants to see the Black Sheep removed as a threat and enough of the Thunder Plateau under control to make a really strong eastern border against the next bunch of steppe nomads but has less interest in taking all the previous territory and having the people become part of the family again. Thus more urgency to win the war decisively but less to reconquer and hold.

He might have ambitions towards hegemony over the petty kingdoms of northern not!Arabia - depends how much of a nuisance they are. In general he might think of east-west trade as the obvious cash generator to grow where a core territory king would think manufacturing.
 
Oshha said:
We are not. Aranfan has said that Sell Bombard actions that are Probably Profitable just means a chance of 0.5 Treasury rather than 1 Treasury if the action succeeds. Furthermore, it takes three actions to get profits from a new action. By the time that we can sell bombards due to a new market, any concerns about needing the money would have taken place. If you want to save money, you will need to delay the construction of the warships.
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Revanchists wouldn't let us delay regardless... but I agree that money is not an immediate concern. However, we have run out of Profitable markets (I meant to use the term literally), so I want to start exploring for more presently.

Our fund-raising is nearly halved (in expected value, to 0.625), by selling to Potentially Profitable markets.

Oshha said:
None of this should be part of the plan.
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Several people (or at least one; I don't remember specifics) were complaining about stat changes being difficult to track over time. This seemed like a sensible way to do so, to summarize for the casual voter, and to open up to auditing for mistaken assumptions.
 
[X] Plan Oshha
-[X] Authority: Sell Bombards, Pamplona: Does Pamplona want bombards? (75%, 1 year, profitable)
-[X] Influence: A Census: Knowing how many people obey you and where they actually are is a great help in doing the work of governance. (95%. 1 Year. +1 Influence)
-[X] Influence: Assist Bureaucratic Reform, Pamplona: Pamplona is having increasing difficulty maintaining their heavy cavalry without giving the knights their own grazing fields. However, they have seen the direction that led the Doych, and they want to avoid it. So they have come to you seeking assistance in reforming their bureaucracy so that they may better marshal people and resources. (85%, 5 Years, +3 Pamplona Opinion, -5 for all rolls while in effect, +5 Prestige, Narrative Effects)
-[X] Influence: Construct Warships, Redshore: With unified control of the Yllython shattered, there are going to be pirates and rebels in the sea closest to the core. The people need to build warships to suppress pirates and fight enemies. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[X] Influence: Construct Warships, New Blackmouth: The shipyards of New Blackmouth are once more ready and operational. (70%. 2 years. +Warships. Expensive)
-[X] Relax with Family (-Stress)
 
I am not worried about long term income. We are nearly over the hill with our guilds. At that point we get a free +1 treasury per 2 rounds. That's huge. We just need to get to that point and that mostly involves keeping steady at the tiller and aimed at invading Tinshore in about 3 years.

We only really need about 1-2 more treasury to take on Tinshore. Then an additional 3 or 4 to take on the other Yon splinters.
 
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I quote replied to get a snapshot of our stats.

Aranfan said:
Melkut Ymaryn
(Kingdom of The People)

Economic System: Guild Merchantile
Government System: Absolute Elective Monarchy (Heir appointed by Parliament)
Primary Religion: Mylathadysm
Secondary Religions: Folk Animism (Old Ways/Crow Pantheon), Meshamini, Geoyrgon, Samynish, various other Monotheisms

Base Influence: 5 Influence, 2 Authority

Current King: Balthazar
Current Heir: Idari

Naval Status (Yllython Mor): 2 (Anemic)
Naval Status (Saffron Sea): 2 (Anemic)
Naval Status (Salt Sea): 4 (Weak)
Naval Status (Monsoon Sea): 5 (Weak)
(Combined Yllython+Saffron Naval: 4 [weak])
Total Naval Score: 13

Professional Army Formations:
Iron Flower Company (Pike & Shot [crossbow]) - Deployed to Txolla


Treasury Status: 2.6/10
Income: -.3

Expensive Actions subtract 1 from treasury status, Profitable actions add 1 to it. Very is x2, Extremely is x3, Ruinously/Insanely is x4.
Income adds itself to the Treasury Status every 5 years.


Provinces and Loyalty

Core: Rock Solid
Memory of Spirits: Rock Solid
Txolla: Unshakable
Hathytta: Decently Loyal
Western Wall: In Rebellion
Greenshore: In Rebellion/Under Foreign Occupation
Tinshore: In Rebellion
Thunder Plateau: Under Foreign Occupation


Wonders:

Greater Sacred Forest: The pacts between the People and the Forests run deep. As you nurture and protect the forests, they nurture and protect you. Climatic crises are reduced, all but the most severe to nothing.
(Negative Climate Random Events are ignored)

Sacred Warding: The ancient blessing of a defunct god, maintained through the magics and diligent efforts of millennia of holy men. With it, the People are immune to the depredations of the starpox. Inspired by its example, the People have created the finest system of medicine and sanitation in the world.
(+20 to rolls to combat diseases and plagues. If you fail to contain a civ ending plague, you get a saving throw to have a second chance at lower success rate without the bonus, that takes twice as long at double the cost.)

Guild Industry (4/5): The People are an industrial titan unmatched in the present age. Neither the Kus nor the Hung are able to match their output, and the best products of those lands only match the average quality of what is produced by the People.
(Every 2 years, +1 Treasury Status. If wonder is degraded, instead every 7-Lvl years it will repair itself by 1 lvl.)

Grand Libraries: The libraries of the People contains the wisdom of the ages. Every scrap of lore within reach of the People has been collected and preserved.
(+2 Research Slots once Advanced research is unlocked)

Trelli: The strait of Trelli is an extremely important waterway. Merchants flock there from all over the Yllython Mor and Saffron Sea. The Wealth of Empires flows through that strait, and whoever controls it has but to dip their hand into that stream to pull out wealth beyond dreams of avarice.
(+1 Income)

???: This Wonder has been forgotten, although it remains in place. As such, it provides no bonuses.


Maluses:

Debilitating Belief: Revaunchism. Every turn you are not trying to restore the borders of the Old Kingdom, by diplomatic or martial means, you lose 1 influence. If you have 0 influence, you lose one authority and gain two influence instead. If all your influence and authority are tied up, then one will be removed from committed actions at random, possibly causing them to fail. If Influence and Authority both reach 0, bad things.

Other Statuses:

Elitist: You are not the good guys. You are assholes.

Txollan King: Every turn you do not spend at least one action towards addressing Txollan concerns, each action gets -10 to their rolls.

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noncannon said:
I agree with most of Oshha's plan (I'd prefer delaying Pamplona's assistance, but it looks like it's getting harder every year, and I'm worried of where the sold bombards might otherwise go). However, we're running out of Profitable markets, so I want an additional action to find some, even if it's overtime.
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The problem is not that it's getting harder but it's a limited time opportunity. At some point, the Pomp will either reform or failed, and the window of opportunity to build a major ally close.

noncannon said:
The specific explore action doesn't matter to me. I choose North Saffron because it's the most likely to have big markets; but Ealam is plausibly also a good target (threatened by nomads, might be leery of their neighbor Kuma; but might not be big enough to be profitable). Berba would be a good target, but I'm worried about the Khemetri (especially their fleet, which are rumored to be hanging out there).
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I find such assumption about North Saffron unwarranted. From looking at diplomatic profiles, it seems that there are only three powers of notes, and one of which is our soon to be friend Pomp.

Ealam is much bigger than the Kus minors, and also a target for the nomads. They also trade further East. I expect profitable off of them.

Fouredged Sword said:
I am not worried about long term income. We are nearly over the hill with our guilds. At that point we get a free +1 treasury per 2 rounds. That's huge. We just need to get to that point and that mostly involves keeping steady at the tiller and aimed at invading Tinshore in about 3 years.

We only really need about 1-2 more treasury to take on Tinshore. Then an additional 3 or 4 to take on the other Yon splinters.
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We need only a single treasury to take on Tinshore. The rest is just two treasury, assuming we keep repeating the levy.

[X] Plan Oshha
 
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