[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

Arroaack!! We must get a good decision my brethren! We are town after all and should have a good day 1. You must be scum obviously! Caws Loudly in a direction

[X] Peck Mesonoxian

Aha! We both know you're the real scum here scum!

In. No question. I was made to be an sk here
Behold the admission of guilt! As the doctor, you're my top priority, SK!

[X] Peck Cyricubed


gotta go do some stuff but when I get back I'll probably talk some theory about this game lol.
 
We should distribute the votes so we can find both Jackdaws

Incidentally, how many shiny things are there?
behold
The Magpie- you tricksy bird! So smart! Finding the Shiny Thing will be so easy! But nobody likes you, because you are a notorious sneakthief.
(The Magpie knows what everyone's role is, but has NO FRIENDS. The Magpie may make two theft attempts each Night.
The Magpie wins by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8, OR by having all three Shiny Things in their posession at any point.)
 
We should distribute the votes so we can find both Jackdaws

Incidentally, how many shiny things are there?
...you posted as I was in the middle of writing up this exact suggestion. Well, since it'll be a shame to let it go to waste, here's what I had anyway:

So, I've been thinking, and it occurred to me that there's a guaranteed way to flush out at least one Jackdaw. If everybody votes for somebody different (so everybody has a single vote aimed at them), then both the pecking order and Jackdaw powers mean that the person who dies has to have been voted for by a Jackdaw. Their only way they can avoid being outed by this method is to not vote at all, at which point the Jackdaws both become obvious anyway as being players who didn't vote on night one when the person we peck on night two isn't a Jackdaw.

The pros of this tactic:
  1. It guarantees us the ID of at least one Jackdaw.
  2. It doesn't require complex analysis or tactics to pull off.
  3. It lets us get something genuinely useful from the normally meme-y and random day one lynch.
  4. This tactic can be repeated if desired.
The cons:
  1. It guarantees that the night one lynch will be be non-town controlled, which gives it a 9/14 chance of hitting us (9 Crows, 2 Jackdaws, 16 players).
  2. I'm not sure how much useful information we'll get from this outside of outing a Jackdaw, which may hurt in future turns.
  3. This depends on the everyone working together to, er, work.
Thoughts, everyone? Is this worth trying?
 
Caw caw, hello everyone! I believe it is time to twist some beaks, yes?

...Hmm, let's start off with this fellow avian!

[X] Peck -Rosen

(I'll come back to the thread later and discuss some more about the game besides putting in this vote, but I'm busy doing some other stuff atm.)
 
This setup is OPEN, and has PRECISELY 16 SLOTS.
BALANCE is... WELL, I DID MY BEST.

There are nine of the noble Crow! Perhaps you aren't that impressive on your own, but many crows together can do great things! If only you could tell who your friends are!
(No powers. The Crows win by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8)

Four Ravens make up the conspiracy! You Ravens have your own little hideyholes, where you can talk in secret!
(The Ravens have a QuickTopic, and know each other's identities. The Ravens win by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8)

The two Jackdaws! What loud birds! Surely, such a noisy bird is worth listening to?
(During day, Jackdaw votes count thrice. Each Jackdaw knows the other's identity. The Jackdaws win by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8)

The Magpie- you tricksy bird! So smart! Finding the Shiny Thing will be so easy! But nobody likes you, because you are a notorious sneakthief.
(The Magpie knows what everyone's role is, but has NO FRIENDS. The Magpie may make two theft attempts each Night.
The Magpie wins by having two Shiny Things in their possession at the end of Day 8, OR by having all three Shiny Things in their posession at any point.)
So let's talk some theory.

The magpie is the biggest threat to literally everyone. Especially the jackdaws. He steals twice, and he launches those thefts while knowing who has what roles and what role types have shiny things (since that's announced at start of night). More importantly though, it's the only role that can win early. It's in our best interest to try to make sure the magpie dies early, unless one is themselves the magpie.

The Jackdaws sound dangerous, due to having multi voting etc, but they... actually aren't. Don't get me wrong, every team can win, but the Jackdaws have a collective two steals per night, and can't coordinate them. Most likely, they'll only rarely manage a steal. The big threat of the jackdaws is the day game, where they have disproportionate influence... but of course if we see anyone lynched 'wrong' we learn that one of the votes on them is a jackdaw.

and incidentally that cluster will probably be mobbed for thefts if the night reveals the jackdaws have shiny things.

The Ravens are the closest thing to a maf we have. They're the next biggest priority after the magpie. They make up 1/4th of the game at the start, and can each steal once, making sure they all steal from a different player. What this means is that going into n1, if the Ravens aren't the d1 lynch, they can simply carpet 4/11 not them players, and then 4/10 the next night, and so on if they keep not getting lynched. This means they're extremely likely to accumulate early shiny things, and will be basically unstoppable if they keep being missed.

We Crows (but of course i'd claim crow, we're the majority) get nine thefts, and nine votes. But we're facing a coordination problem. We can't coordinate thefts, so we're likely to waste a random percent each night, and we can't be sure who even is on our side at each step.

Incidentally, we should look to the wisdom of any crow myslynches, since we can know for sure they were in fact a crow and not some perfidious other bird. Especially if we at some point myslynch comiturtle and he puts out a scum team guess, he's alarmingly accurate. Assuming he's a crow anyways.

I'll be honest, this isn't the kind of theory discussion I'd make post game, this *is* affected by my alignment. That's true whether I'm town or not, but I am not gonna point out a strategy that hurts my team/personal chances if you assume I'm magpie/whatever mid game.
 
Terrabrand: possible Jackdaw. :V

That said, I can see your logic, and for the most part I agree with it. I'm just not sure it applies night one, when the voting will hit an essentially random target. In fact, it might actually be better to do the 'everybody votes for a different person' strategy if we're hoping to hit Ravens or the Magpie with the night one vote, as Jackdaws aren't going to vote for themselves (giving us a 5 in 14 chance of hitting Ravens or Magpie instead of 5 in 16).
 
Terrabrand: possible Jackdaw. :V

That said, I can see your logic, and for the most part I agree with it. I'm just not sure it applies night one, when the voting will hit an essentially random target. In fact, it might actually be better to do the 'everybody votes for a different person' strategy if we're hoping to hit Ravens or the Magpie with the night one vote, as Jackdaws aren't going to vote for themselves (giving us a 5 in 14 chance of hitting Ravens or Magpie instead of 5 in 16).
I mean statistically the expected result is 'vote hits town' AND the actual expected result is 'vote hits town, BUT EVEN MORE SO' for d1 since the maf/ravens will back each other to some degree and the jackdaws multivote and might also back each other to boot.

Like, I'd place it under a 25% chance of *actually* getting a raven d1, just because they're unlikely to slip that badly. But it could happen, anybody could wind up the vote.

Personally I think trying to force people to all vote differently is clever but too likely to fail from this being a social game. We've got around 36 hours to convince literally everyone of that plan, and if eg both jackdaws don't vote and also a few crows and a raven just... aren't paying attention and don't vote or double up or whatever could really ruin it.

Also I just don't personally like trying to use Game Solving Clever Strats d1 anyways.

Like, I think it's a plan that objectively probably does favor town (and disfavor jackdaws), but I don't like it on a playstyle level tbh.
 
I think it's at least worth attempting. If it works then great, if it doesn't work then any people who deliberately went against it are worth investigating as possible Jackdaws. Speaking of voting, meanwhile...

[X] Peck QTesseract

On the grounds that they're the first person on the list who has both no votes against them, and who hasn't posted yet (I think).
 
The magpie is definitely the biggest threat. They should be the easiest to eliminate too, since neither the jackdaws nor the ravens have any interest in protecting them.

I don't think we should prioritize outing the jackdaws at this point. The process of narrowing down who they are from vote irregularities is likely to take a long time. Even moreso since they can work together to muddy the waters. And they just aren't as dangerous as the other two factions.

I think our efforts are better spent hunting the magpie first then moving on to the ravens. My guess is the jackdaws will wind up outing themselves. They can't let their team mate get pecked, and that is bound to produce a tell eventually.
 
The magpie is definitely the biggest threat. They should be the easiest to eliminate too, since neither the jackdaws nor the ravens have any interest in protecting them.

I don't think we should prioritize outing the jackdaws at this point. The process of narrowing down who they are from vote irregularities is likely to take a long time. Even moreso since they can work together to muddy the waters. And they just aren't as dangerous as the other two factions.

I think our efforts are better spent hunting the magpie first then moving on to the ravens. My guess is the jackdaws will wind up outing themselves. They can't let their team mate get pecked, and that is bound to produce a tell eventually.
The first turn is probably actually the best time to employ the 'each person only gets one vote on them' strategy, as we don't have any information to go on that would help highlight any other factions and it's got a slightly higher chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie than just complete randomness. After the first turn, then it does get more questionable, I'll agree.

Though on the topic of the Magpie... is there actually any way we can meaningfully hunt them down? Because they have no incentive to behave as anything other than town in voting (they have no teammates to protect) and there's no seers to out them.
 
The first turn is probably actually the best time to employ the 'each person only gets one vote on them' strategy, as we don't have any information to go on that would help highlight any other factions and it's got a slightly higher chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie than just complete randomness. After the first turn, then it does get more questionable, I'll agree.

Though on the topic of the Magpie... is there actually any way we can meaningfully hunt them down? Because they have no incentive to behave as anything other than town in voting (they have no teammates to protect) and there's no seers to out them.
I think we can. The magpie has a lot of information nobody else has. Once cases start being made, it's going to be hard to keep that information from slipping into their arguments.

And we need to at least try. No other faction can win until night 8. But the magpie can walk away with the win at any point as long as they are alive.
 
The first turn is probably actually the best time to employ the 'each person only gets one vote on them' strategy, as we don't have any information to go on that would help highlight any other factions and it's got a slightly higher chance of hitting a Raven or the Magpie than just complete randomness. After the first turn, then it does get more questionable, I'll agree.

Though on the topic of the Magpie... is there actually any way we can meaningfully hunt them down? Because they have no incentive to behave as anything other than town in voting (they have no teammates to protect) and there's no seers to out them.
we're all magpie cop here tbh. Like. I'm only slightly exaggerating. Let's be clear here.

If you steal from someone and get a shiny thing, and next night the Magpie has fewer shiny things than the night you stole a shiny thing, there's extremely solid odds you stole from the magpie. Cases can be made on that basis. (you'll lose the shiny thing probably but it also probably won't be game end so it's worth it on any early night.)
 
I think we can. The magpie has a lot of information nobody else has. Once cases start being made, it's going to be hard to keep that information from slipping into their arguments.

And we need to at least try. No other faction can win until night 8. But the magpie can walk away with the win at any point as long as they are alive.
Ah, to be clear: I wasn't arguing that we shouldn't try to hunt them, just expressing uncertainty about how we might go about it. Hopefully you're right about the Magpie letting their info slip into their arguments, but even if they do it's not necessarily going to be easy to spot (it's not necessarily going to be distinguishable from somebody who just makes good guesses or has good information analysis).
we're all magpie cop here tbh. Like. I'm only slightly exaggerating. Let's be clear here.

If you steal from someone and get a shiny thing, and next night the Magpie has fewer shiny things than the night you stole a shiny thing, there's extremely solid odds you stole from the magpie. Cases can be made on that basis. (you'll lose the shiny thing probably but it also probably won't be game end so it's worth it on any early night.)
...that's right, the number of shinies owned by each faction gets posted, doesn't it? I'd legitimately forgotten about that.
 
...that's right, the number of shinies owned by each faction gets posted, doesn't it? I'd legitimately forgotten about that.
At the start of each night, yes, and that can be used in general over the course of several days but in particular the Magpie is just one person. Notably the magpie steals first so we'll have to account for that.
 
I guess i can see the tradeoff between outing the Jackdaws and essentially surrendering the entire first lynch to them and honestly I think it has to be done earlier rather than later if we distinctly want to attempt this plan. But surrendering our only KP to them still gives me some bad vibes.
 
To be fair, we don't need to kill anyone specific to win. Just need the shiny things.

on the other hand this is a plan that guarantees the jackdaws gain a shiny thing if any shiny things change hands d1. On the other hand, we then kill them. Hmmm. I do think it's like, an objectively favorable play for non-jackdaws, but... I dunno.
 
I guess i can see the tradeoff between outing the Jackdaws and essentially surrendering the entire first lynch to them and honestly I think it has to be done earlier rather than later if we distinctly want to attempt this plan. But surrendering our only KP to them still gives me some bad vibes.
I'm not a huge fan of that part of it either, tbh, but on the first turn it shouldn't be too bad. They won't have the information to guide their votes at any specific target (aside from not hitting themselves), which makes it essentially a random vote with a slightly higher than normal chance of hitting Ravens or Crows.
To be fair, we don't need to kill anyone specific to win. Just need the shiny things.

on the other hand this is a plan that guarantees the jackdaws gain a shiny thing if any shiny things change hands d1. On the other hand, we then kill them. Hmmm. I do think it's like, an objectively favorable play for non-jackdaws, but... I dunno.
So long as they don't end up in the possession of the Magpie, a faction gaining a shiny thing isn't a huge problem early game. Though...

Hmm.

Okay, potential flaw with the 'out the Jackdaw' plan spotted. It reveals the Jackdaw that's going to be targeted next to the Magpie too, and if that Jackdaw has a shiny thing (my assumption would be that either all non-Crow factions or the Crows, Ravens, and Jackdaws have one each) then the Magpie gets a golden opportunity to try and steal from them. Of course the Magpie knows who the Jackdaws are anyway, so how much of a problem that is I don't know, but it's worth thinking on.
 
To be fair, we don't need to kill anyone specific to win. Just need the shiny things.

on the other hand this is a plan that guarantees the jackdaws gain a shiny thing if any shiny things change hands d1. On the other hand, we then kill them. Hmmm. I do think it's like, an objectively favorable play for non-jackdaws, but... I dunno.

It still potentially reduces the amount of friendly steals though, like idk I think theres a sliding scale of results but I mean it's entirely possible that a mislynch just happens anyways D1 so realistically the outcomes are actually probably favorable.

[X] Peck NSMS
 
We have to do this D1 if at all though, I think the utility hinges on D1's trending towards being huge coinflips anyways.
 
It still potentially reduces the amount of friendly steals though, like idk I think theres a sliding scale of results but I mean it's entirely possible that a mislynch just happens anyways D1 so realistically the outcomes are actually probably favorable.

[X] Peck NSMS
Notably upon further consideration the plan is partly effectual if we have everyone voting and no more than 2 votes on the same poster. Not completely, but as a late shift? Definitely an option if we don't think we have a solid choice. Hmm.

(It's better if it's a voting ring dealie, but 2 or less still makes the lynch jackdaw dictated.)
 
Honestly, the jackdaw plan just plain doesn't work either. Let's say you do, somehow, get everyone to agree to do this, even with the two jackdaws and probably the Magpie (since the jackdaws remaining in the game helps the magpie win) arguing against it, plus everyone who doesn't like the plan from an aesthetics perspective, or from a feasibility perspective.

Let's also say that we have no lurkers who refrain from voting, no crows who defect from the plan to lynch someone they think is a magpie, and the ravens go along with it; ie, everything goes perfectly. It goes something like this:

Day one random lynch, probably a crow. We identify a jackdaw, but we identify whichever of them judges themselves to be the less valuable player, since even if they're lower on the pecking order they can ensure they're the one outed and not their partner by jumping on a lynch with someone on it. Day 2 we lynch a jackdaw, day 3 a crow, day 4 a jackdaw... and then we go into day 5 down 2 crows and with 4 days wasted, and with the ravens intact. Since there's no day tell in this plan as to whether or not someone is a Raven. That's not a position anyone but the ravens want to be in.
 
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