I'd just like to point out, for the record, that this method can describe all rational numbers, but in fact cannot describe all numbers. I know that has nothing to do with the point being discussed, but given what thread we're on I think it's far more important to toss aside all this silly philosophy junk and concentrate on the far more important topic of numbers geekery.That said, that's like saying that every single number in existence can be described in terms of the number 1, plus the four fundamental operators.
but it's also more stable and doesn't once again force us to deal with geographically-fragmented territory
From what I can tell:As far what Tokyo's meguca politics will look like, does anyone have a list of the organizations that have confirmed intentions to control part of the city? I only recall Nagoya and ourselves as wanting to get involved, with Heaven's Chosen and Magick Company benefiting by making our success and expansion possible. Has any other group expressed an interest in taking Tokyo or recruiting the Elites that are staying in Tokyo?
While true, it's still a logistical split in our territory, and I'd rather not have to deal with it if we didn't have to. I'd much, much rather be taking our timeJust wanted to point out our Tokyo expansion is actually fairly continuous with our current territory. As seen here our current territory is separated from the Kanagawa Prefecture by a mere 20km of, as far as we know, unclaimed territory. Of course that is over Mount Fuji so it's not very travel friendly territory, we'd have to go through either Numazu or Kofu for road/train trips. Still it's not at all like Iwata which is trapped between other faction territories and at least 40km through claimed (Coalition) territory.
How can the Junta take over Tokyo without infuriating every other group in Japan? They know that nobody likes them, and they definitely won't be able to integrate their claims inside the two months it takes for the NM, HC, and Republic to come down on their heads for it. The only reason we can get away with claiming huge swathes of Tokyo is because we're doing the vast majority of clearing it.The Osaka Junta has been aggressively poaching Elites from the Tokyo area, ending up with some of the more violent, anti-social and dangerous ones whom Nagoya specifically excluded. This has vastly increased the likelihood that, should Tokyo be left to its own devices, we will soon be seeing either a reversion to the exact situation that spawned the youma apocalypse or, worse, a takeover of Tokyo by a group that has self-identified as a Junta.
Because of these little concepts called "Hell" and "Heaven".In the Protestant Reformation there were lords who when captured and faced with either returning to Catholicism or being executed, kept to their new Protestant faith.
How the fuck is that "ultimately" self serving?
Heaven's Chosen and the Magical Republic have had their territory regularly invaded for several months now and amazingly have not only allowed it to happen but somehow have avoided any sort of conflicts between rival meguca despite the two sides' joint occupation of vast swaths of territory. The politics of appeasement are ridiculously strong there. That basically leaves Nagoya as the only group willing to actually defend itself; the problem there is that they seem rather war-weary, and don't have real territorial ambitions in Tokyo, so they may not even notice the Junta taking over until it's too late to do anything about it. I suppose that's an option, though: do you think we should abdicate any responsibility for Tokyo to Hino, and go back to playing a local game once Tokyo has been cleansed of youma?You can only German Reich so many things before you piss off France and Great Britain into kicking off WWII.
The refugee situation is triggered by your own actions though.
The thing is your original goals were altruistically stabilizing the region and then leaving it to develop on its own with some level of oversight. That was altruistic. Now you're planning to become the largest organization in Japan as a result of it. It's a fundamental shift in your end goals, and it is a self serving shift.
And the more stable organizations aren't undermined by them at all in this case really. In Europe the idea of just killing them off or leaving them to starve is anathema. In this situation with rule of law being only as strong as your strongest enforcer, and everyone's resources so limited, it's far easier. A common foreigner threat makes it ever so much easier to stabilize one's rule as countless politicians have used it to.
The Incubators have a long view though. In the short view it's likely to take at least a year before numbers in Tokyo are even high enough to support driving demon strength above normal. The Incubators want a permanent solution ideally. Or at the very least one that lasts years.
It's hard to explain my issues. Though separating GM and in character is a bit tricky at this point. But as a GM I've noticed a fundamental shift in your end game in order to maximize your size at the end of things. And that's self serving.
The money we want is because we flat out cannot sustain our organization without it if we claim the larger territory block.
As I noted above, securing a section of Tokyo with our current resources is possible. Securing the full section of Tokyo that you want with our current resources is not.
Threats of refugees reaching her borders if she doesn't help pay for her "fair share" (and I still can't imagine how you can pretend that 1/6 of all refugees is 'fair'; maybe she's rich in dollars, but remember that the real balance sheet for magical girls is in cubes) are explicitly unrelated to the business at hand.
or we could potentially come to an arrangement of temporarily providing Magick Corp additional territory to hunt in until the Tokyo refugee problem is resolved.
Alright, I just finished reading the thread. I think that we should take Sachiko's deal as it is because this is the best deal we can get without damaging our reputation more.
Again I call bullshit, because for all intents and purposes, the territory the HC and MR claim as theirs, the Junta claims as theirs too. It's not a god damn invasion, they're not even fighting each other. They are enemies that hunt the same grounds and they only don't shoot each other because an entire army will appear if they try.Heaven's Chosen and the Magical Republic have had their territory regularly invaded for several months now and amazingly have not only allowed it to happen but somehow have avoided any sort of conflicts between rival meguca despite the two sides' joint occupation of vast swaths of territory. The politics of appeasement are ridiculously strong there. That basically leaves Nagoya as the only group willing to actually defend itself; the problem there is that they seem rather war-weary, and don't have real territorial ambitions in Tokyo, so they may not even notice the Junta taking over until it's too late to do anything about it. I suppose that's an option, though: do you think we should abdicate any responsibility for Tokyo to Hino, and go back to playing a local game once Tokyo has been cleansed of youma?
I also never said we should 'abdicate responsibility to Hino,' I said we should have gone with the original concept for stabilizing Tokyo, by forming independent organizations and acting in conjunction with other outside groups as oversight to keep things from spinning out of control.
"I'll use power better than you, so shut up and listen to me," is all the rest of the world is going to hear when Mami speaks. That you refuse to acknowledge that's the situation leaves me completely baffled.Welcome to the thread!
Don't mind the heated morality debates, just part of the package when you get to play as an actual heroic heroine that is trying her best to save the world despite the world doing it's best to not be saved and make everything far more complicated than it ought to be.
No it wasn't. We could easily have taken a small chunk of the pie with how underpopulated Tokyo has become without pushing many, if any, girls from their homes. If I recall, that was part of the initial plan, where we and Nagoya would each take small annexes for ourselves to keep an eye on things directly. You can't very well keep things stable without actually being there, but you don't have to rule it all yourself, either.Except that entire concept was blown out the water by the need to cough up part of Tokyo to HC to bribe them into giving us the anti-teleport artifact.
Additionally, the massive number of refugees that what to join up with us is demonstrating that expansion is not going to require us imposing dominion over Tokyo, but rather just accepting all those that want to join up with us, and then organizing those that don't want to join up with us into some kind of associate groups that have oversight.
in the area.40 Class 3s, possible Class 4 activity data inconclusive. 32 Grade 3 Contracted, 1000 Contracted of all Grades.
there are now 800 to 900 girls left and according to this, although it's from the previous turn, the majority of the decrease is due to refugees:Around 800-900 now. With solo hunting they can get over 1700. Plus food is fairly easy to steal and they can live homeless same as they are now.
The drop is from them running away instead of dying though. Approximately 900.
You've had around forty come to you looking to join up after the string of victories and you doubt you can take them all right away without the safe territory to support them.
Another 27 girls from Tokyo came upon your forward operations looking for refuge this month. Still no elites, but this group at least had 8 veterans.
8 veterans (1 clairvoyant, 1 healer, 1 translator)
19 greens (4 barrier, 3 healer, 2 stealth, 1 clairvoyant, 1 teleporter)
Your plan to get help from the remaining girls in Tokyo bears some fruit. 1 Elite and 17 Vets are willing to fight for Tokyo, and many of them are willing to join SIMP in general, including the elite named Miho.
who want to join, and as of the latest votes have joined us, at 0.38% of the total population. When you consider that at least some of that figure has to be down to deaths and the fact it's actual value is somewhere between 100 and 200 not actually 200 then that percentage is probably closer to 45% or even 50%.8 vets willing to join. Wish magic rolls on them awful, only significant wish magic 3 healers.
"I'll use power better than you, so shut up and listen to me," is all the rest of the world is going to hear when Mami speaks. That you refuse to acknowledge that's the situation leaves me completely baffled.
But aren't we, as the players, doing exactly what I said? It's the SV mentality to strip as many people of enough agency to fuck up our plans as possible. Are you really surprised the GM sees us as being power-mongers when we've had a meta-spiral just discovering there was a faction with more physical oomph than us?As I understand it Elder Haman's problem isn't that the character don't understand our goals it's that The GM isn't.
Interestingly, recently I've been analyzing the Moral Foundations Theory that you brought up back in February. A pretty decent starting point for a descriptive theory, though incomplete and flawed. Been writing up a critique on it, which has led to some interesting conclusions.
Should probably make a note here (including for @Aranfan, since this might possibly be related to his issues with the previous argument): Saying that motivations are based on self-interest is not the same as having selfish motivations. Self-interest and selfishness are two entirely separate things.Yeah, the chain is strong. The loan from Sachiko is indeed entirely wrapped up in the whole saving Tokyo business, and is not primarily driven by selfish demands.
Left off the end of this sentence?As we have come to understand the situation better it becomes more and more clear that stabilizing the region without growing to become a significant power.
In isolation, and ignoring other factors, perhaps. However we also need enough meguca hunting to bring DS back up to a usable level (ie: greater than -10) before I would expect any business venture to be viable, just on account of the horrific mental pressure on normal people at the extremely low DS. And, after accounting for the numbers needed for that, projections on the number of girls available for the purpose of actually implementing the courier service (or any other business) is insufficient to cover general upkeep costs of the full number of new members. We'd be short a couple hundred thousand per month.This is something you and I have always disagreed on. I do not accept you assumptions here, and have always felt that if we had enough money to expand the courier business that we could then bootstrap the Tokyo area into financial solvency. We had enough money on hand to support the courier expansion. Then we spent it all on refugees.
We've accepted (or are about to accept) 76 refugees, compared to our starting 74 meguca population, meaning we've hit the 100% mark already. 30 refugees for the Magick Company would be 60%-ish.. 50 was the territory size, and their population is probably lower — perhaps as low as 40 — which could put it as high as a 75% mark. However there are additional factors:1: 1/6 of refugees is entirely reasonable from our preservative. At 100 refugees total a month that's 15 refugees a month for Magick Corp to deal with. After two months that would result in 30 refugees to Magick Corps ~50 current members, which is roughly equivalent to the percentage of of refugees to current members that we have already absorbed.
Once again, why can't you write something like that in the offer? That's an entirely reasonable and decent approach (aside from perhaps the dig at 'favorable terms'). Instead you have to go around making veiled threats with fake generosity, and come off looking very much like an ass.I'm not trying to condemn them to starvation, I'm just telling them that hey, we need some help here, and that standing back and trying to let us and Nagoya handle it all is foolish, if they want to help through a loan with favorable terms, that's cool, but that if they don't want to offer favorable terms, maybe they should consider what other kind of help they can provide.
Saying that motivations are based on self-interest is not the same as having selfish motivations. Self-interest and selfishness are two entirely separate things.
Interestingly, recently I've been analyzing the Moral Foundations Theory that you brought up back in February. A pretty decent starting point for a descriptive theory, though incomplete and flawed. Been writing up a critique on it, which has led to some interesting conclusions.
Saying that motivations are based on self-interest is not the same as having selfish motivations. Self-interest and selfishness are two entirely separate things.
In isolation, and ignoring other factors, perhaps. However we also need enough meguca hunting to bring DS back up to a usable level (ie: greater than -10) before I would expect any business venture to be viable, just on account of the horrific mental pressure on normal people at the extremely low DS. And, after accounting for the numbers needed for that, projections on the number of girls available for the purpose of actually implementing the courier service (or any other business) is insufficient to cover general upkeep costs of the full number of new members. We'd be short a couple hundred thousand per month.
We did indeed have the money necessary for the courier expansion, but that in itself is insufficient for the purposes of maintaining a stable territory. And I also agree that we likely could have made the deal sustainable with a much smaller territory grab (something in the 200-300 range, maybe). However the switch to a 1000+ territory grab is sufficient in and of itself to require additional funding, even without accounting for the additional refugees and their costs.
Once again, why can't you write something like that in the offer? That's an entirely reasonable and decent approach (aside from perhaps the dig at 'favorable terms'). Instead you have to go around making veiled threats with fake generosity, and come off looking very much like an ass.
Vague-ish time estimates have us, at present, about 1 year past the point where DS fell below 0. This assumes some months pushing DS up towards maybe +20 (in order to start the youma spawning in significant numbers), and then a few months of DS dropping relatively quickly while it's above 0, and somewhere around then being about when Nagoya started to get involved.See, I don't think that's an accurate depiction of the business climate. Tokyo is in an economic recession, not an economic breakdown. Therefor the current DS cannot be so low that it prevents the establishment of a business. In fact, the negative emotional effects cut both ways, since we would be immune to it while our competitors would not be.
The absolute bare minimum would be about $225 (food, shelter,Furthermore, I have always maintained that we do not need immediate roll out of the general upkeep costs, but can roll out amenities progressively as the business is established.
This would actually be a reasonable thing to help cover how limited we are on hunting, though we don't really have many groups to sell it to. Kifu and Numazu, maybe the Enlightened and Sachiko (though with the currently-proposed split-up, they'd be closer to the Nagoya-controlled areas). It would provide a small boost, but I don't expect it to add anything significant to the bottom line.We could also potentially rent territory space out to groups that need to rebuild their cube reserves.
Well, we were approaching her before the refugee thing really hit, in order to get the restaurant loan. And we intended to get extra money out of the restaurant loan for Serena's village houses anyway. The refugee issue has pushed the need for immediate funding up to the front, yes, but it's not like we waited til we were deluged with refugees to even consider it. We've just adjusted our plans and expectations as the situation has evolved. Still, the vast majority of our monetary needs arise explicitly because of the Tokyo expansion plans. We could handle the refugees on maybe $300k (including a few houses for Serena), but we need another ~$1.5 mil (by my estimated worst case) to cover the Tokyo half of things.There are lots of ways we could approach this, and I really do feel that the refugee problem is what is driving the Sachiko loan, with Tokyo expansion a secondary concern, but very much an add on not the key component. Though I suppose it's understandable that Sachiko can't see that.
You did not make the offer as you wrote it in the above post. You did not go to her as an equal and simply explain the situation and ask her to consider ways she could help. You went in with a not-so-veiled threat, followed by a mafia-like oh-so-generous acceptance of what you'd like her to provide.I DID! I even quoted the line in the offer where I did it in my last post so that you could see that I put it in the offer.
Here you say 1/6 is a heavy lift, while previously you said it was fair, or even low. Someone can accept an unfair request if they deem it reasonable or necessary, given the circumstances, but that doesn't make it a fair request, nor something that should be expected.And I posit again that the 1/6th is indeed a very heavy lift, but entirely reasonable ask considering the effort everyone else is making.
I'm not sure I remember such stances in the thread discussion. The only thing I remember is TheEyes being one of the two people who did a full panic over the equity issue, and threw in the threat as a suggestion to get her to back off, and then you incorporated that into your proposal.That was plenty of sentiment in the thread that Magick Corp is ignoring the refugee problem and basically saying that it's not their problem, or blaming it on us, because we dared to actually do something successful about Tokyo.
Based on the map, they have a territory which roughly covers enough population centers to count as about 50 territory. We do not know how many meguca are in the MC, but it could reasonably be as high as 45, though I would guess 40 to be more likely (particularly since they said they could accept 2-3 more girls).Doesn't Magick Corp have less than ten meguca? And only enough territory to support themselves?
I would guess a minimum of 6 months for the Incubators, and possibly a few years, to bring it back up to basic sustainability levels purely through contracting. However other groups would be much quicker to move in to claim territory if it was not otherwise claimed.On the topic of Tokyo: if the youma all die and no one steps in to provide oversight in regards to overhunting, how long would it take the Incubators to find and contract enough girls from the remaining Tokyo population to bring DS to a reasonable level? And is this the reason inverted_helix says that our expansion into Tokyo is purely for our own benefit?
They limit themselves. For example, Kyuubey has only explicitly gone out of his way to contract a single new girl in the Mitakihara area since we began operating. Meanwhile, they've been contracting probably dozens per month in Tokyo to try to compensate for the death rates.Does anyone know if the Incubators contract every potential girl they find or do they limit themselves based on current meguca population?
Oh dear. It's spreading.
While I agree that over 700 girls isn't unlikely, I'd peg that as unlikely immediately, and thus we will hopefully have a bit more of an economic buffer before we get more pop.The absolute bare minimum would be about $250 (food, shelter, cell phone) per girl, and even that can add up to $180k for the high-end numbers we're looking at.
It's might be their 'territory', but that doesn't mean they've got that many girls. With their greater monetary focus, it's possible they do something like our share-cropping arrangement with Kyouko earlier (probably with some monetary incentives as well) or something similar.Based on the map, they have a territory which roughly covers enough population centers to count as about 50 territory. We do not know how many meguca are in the MC, but it could reasonably be as high as 45, though I would guess 40 to be more likely (particularly since they said they could accept 2-3 more girls).
Remember that these groups have been maintaining an exclusion zone that worked for them until we broke it. Basically because we didn't have a perfect plan to deal with all the refugees we are taking the blame for all negative results as they affect each group.
Recession means negative growth. Businesses stop expanding, and don't replace things that are failing. They're in a situation with explicitly negative hope being impressed on their minds on a daily basis. They're not in a mindset to take chances, to try to expand and grow their business, and so forth, which means that a business that depends on that attitude is dead in the water.