Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%
  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
This is mainly an emergency escape hatch, so that if the need is felt we can exercise it.
...wow. I'm actually amazed she's willing to give us the buyback for value. I was fully expecting some kinda surcharge.
Well I thought about it and reassessed what people would be willing to accept. I mean something Kinematics pointed out before is that even at a reasonable value like this, you're unlikely to ever just have cash on hand to make that kind of huge outlay. I mean it's still going to be equivalent to years of payments all at once.

I considered a surcharge, and it would make sense to be honest, but part of business deals is what people are willing to accept. I considered something like an NPV including growth rates, but if your growth rate exceeds discount rates that could go to infinity.

To limit her exposure to risk as another argument for reduction in rates. Credit cards do it all the time, if you have bad credit they give you a small limit, that then rises after you prove yourself a less risky borrower.
For debt it makes sense, but I don't really see it making as much sense in terms of equity.

Actually, 1/6th was chosen in full awareness of those facts. Consider also that Nagoya has accepted so many refugees that they have well over 200 on ice. And we have accepted twice our own numbers. Furthermore, The Enlightened and Sendai have been dealing with refugees because of their closer proximity.
The Enlightened only had to deal with refugees after you cracked open Tokyo. That's not doing you any favors. Sendai and Nagoya took in people because it fit their own ethos. On the other hand the RoJ and the HC both haven't taken in any refugees and they're several times the size of the MC.

I don't really feel she is a heartless capitalist seeking to make war profits. Frankly I suspect part of the reason she is offering a good deal is that she wants us to succeed, (and she wants in on it, but not at such a level that resentment will be bred). She just doesn't realize how irrational people are about "hoarding" and "profiteering." (Both IC and OOC).
This is very correct on all counts. She is offering you a very good deal. Keep in mind that at these rates she's essentially breaking even.

Frankly we're in such a situation where even if it was double what she was asking for (8%) then I'd still vote for accepting because we do kinda need a large cash infusion now.
See this was my perspective on you guys. In your shoes the 5% offer would have made reasonable sense to me at least even if it was on your whole organization income rather than as it originally was only being around 3.75% of that value. But making you pay through the nose because you had to wasn't the goal.

Eh. I wouldn't really say it's irrationality. Venture capital stuff is rather byzantine in nature and trying to understand it is not easy for those that haven't studied its mechanisms (i.e. most of us).
Yeah. It's a fair complaint.


Essentially Sachiko went into this negotiation with the goal of providing you what you needed to get the job done and of getting a portion of the benefits from what you were doing as well. She's not really pleased with the monetary payoff for her, but her negotiating goals were self-sabotaging so she didn't have as much room to maneuver.

You on the other hand portrayed yourselves as rather blunter and more self serving than expected (particularly with the veiled threat with something mostly unrelated), and that may not have a monetary value but it is a consideration. The threat wasn't even particularly threatening because if you look at the map, you have to cross through someone else's territory to get to her, which is why she hasn't had any refugees reach her. But it does speak about who you are.
 
It's no more under thumb than a normal loan really. With a normal loan you pay interest. Most people don't really regard that as under thumb.

I guess personally I don't really see the difference between what amounts to profit sharing vs interest payments.

It's hard for me to grasp normal psychology sometimes.
Loans have an end date, but this equity payment program does not. In fact it's a worse deal than for regular humans, because in principle both parties in this deal are immortal, so there is no upper limit to how much money we will eventually have to pay Sachiko for this "equity share". The supposed 50% chance that we will fail isn't even worth considering on our end, because if that comes to pass it is because we will be dead, and Japan as a country will soon follow.

There's also the future morale and political impacts to consider. 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years down the line, when we're still making monthly payments to Sachiko, future generations of Serenes will be openly wondering why we're still paying 3-6% of our net profits (which may be up to the millions of dollars per year, since by that time we'll have a bunch of college grads with day jobs instead of everyone still being in school) to someone for the privilege of her having finally put some skin in the game regarding a Tokyo crisis that happened decades before they were born, at the last possible second.

Sure, Mami and the other Ancient Ojous will all remember why they made the deal, but the younger members will only see money that they need to address current concerns being fed to this greedy little banker-chick who couldn't even bring herself to donate a little money to clearing Tokyo, back when other girls were risking their lives. The political optics are going to be so bad, and Sachiko's own PR will likely suffer so much, that I'm honestly rather surprised that she's resisting the idea of early repayment at all. By the time the Serenes have the money to make a serious go at paying her back, she should be just as eager as we would be to sunset the deal.
Also notable: Sachiko is not in fact a business robot, but she tries to act that way sometimes because people can be painful. And the power she got from her wish really does influence the way she set herself up. I think it was TheEyes who thought that she had gained her power realized its applications and then read a bunch of business self-help books and decided to live her entire life by them. It's not perfectly accurate, but it's not entirely wrong either.
Not me:
To me, Sachiko is coming across as a girl who realized the applications of her magic, read a bunch of Corporate Self-Help books, then decided to make that her whole life. She's playing up the whole money-grubbing aspect because she dove head-first into that personality type.
But I did think it was a good thought. :)

Hmm. I wonder; is this Inverted_helix trying to reassure us we're misjudging Sachiko (most likely) or is this Sachiko realizing she may have unintentionally antagonized us, the thinly veiled threat probably hinted at this, and is trying to placate us since if SIMP survives it will be the superpower in Japan.
Likely both. @inverted_helix has clearly been looking at this from an economic point of view, but hasn't really considered the political ramifications of a bank squeezing a perpetuity out of what amounts to a group of public safety workers trying to respond to an approaching natural disaster. Imagine what would happen if it came out that Goldman Sachs tried this with Doctors Without Borders when they were trying to respond to the ebola outbreak in West Africa, except in this case we're talking about a strain of super-Ebola that's set to kill 13 million people in three months? The question I'm looking at is why the hell is she even trying to make a(n infinite amount of) profit off of this at all, rather than seeing it as an investment in the continuation of Japan as a country and just making a donation? We're not even asking her to risk her life at all; what a deal!
 
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Imagine what would happen if it came out that Goldman Sachs tried this with Doctors Without Borders when they were trying to respond to the ebola outbreak in West Africa, except in this case we're talking about a strain of super-Ebola that's set to kill 13 million people in three months?
You have more faith in banks than I do if you think they wouldn't. But part of the issue is that you don't actually need this money to stop the outbreak. You need this money to benefit from stopping it.

You could go through and kill all the superdemons without any more money at all. You just wouldn't be in a position to take in all the survivors and grow your organization. You've been conflating those two when they're really quite separate things. You need this money to grow, not to save Tokyo.

In fact it's a worse deal than for regular humans, because in principle both parties in this deal are immortal
This simply isn't a line of thinking that anyone involved in the deal is thinking as. This isn't TTS yet. At this point even a human lifespan is a long long time for a magical girl to live. That's part of why I chose to use months as the timescale of this quest when other empire quests use years. It's a difference in time scale. Up until the start of this quest around 80% of magical girls didn't live six months. So no one involved thinks of magical girls as immortals. Most of your girls don't even realize that is a thing.

Hiko would think in those terms. But she's the exception, not the rule. I mean something like .1% of magical girls made it to 10 years.
 
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Sure, Mami and the other Ancient Ojous will all remember why they made the deal, but the younger members will only see money that they need to address current concerns being fed to this greedy little banker-chick who couldn't even bring herself to donate a little money to clearing Tokyo, back when other girls were risking their lives. The political optics are going to be so bad, and Sachiko's own PR will likely suffer so much, that I'm honestly rather surprised that she's resisting the idea of early repayment at all. By the time the Serenes have the money to make a serious go at paying her back, she should be just as eager as we would be to sunset the deal.
She'd probably have been far more agreeable, if not for the threat that got added in. People threatening you don't leave a good impression, and tend to drop to the bottom of the list of "people you'd give a good deal to".

This simply isn't a line of thinking that anyone involved in the deal is thinking as. This isn't TTS yet. At this point even a human lifespan is a long long time for a magical girl to live. That's part of why I chose to use months as the timescale of this quest when other empire quests use years. It's a difference in time scale. Up until the start of this quest around 80% of magical girls didn't live six months. So no one involved thinks of magical girls as immortals. Most of your girls don't even realize that is a thing.
This is actually an interesting aspect. It partly depends on when a magical girl got contracted. Post-Madoka, the average lifespan for pretty much all girls where there's any amount of organization will have gone up drastically. It's only those in the wild that are still at really high risk. Anyone contracted within the last three years will have a different risk baseline than anyone older than that.

Still, for those in high conflict areas, average lifespan won't be phenomenal. Apart from outright war, you can probably have a reasonable expectation of something in the 5 to 10 year range — vastly better than in the wilds, but still limited.

Even the Serenes are only looking at a 20-30 year lifespan with a 4-5 morale, just based on grief spiral rates. We'd have to hit 7 morale to get a 75 year lifespan. We do have an 'out' with Serena, though, in that those bound to her don't have that risk. We may be able to more generally capitalize on that in the future with more research, but that's still long ways away.

So no, no one at this time is going to be expecting to reach anything remotely like 'immortal' status.
 
You have more faith in banks than I do if you think they wouldn't. But part of the issue is that you don't actually need this money to stop the outbreak. You need this money to benefit from stopping it.

You could go through and kill all the superdemons without any more money at all. You just wouldn't be in a position to take in all the survivors and grow your organization. You've been conflating those two when they're really quite separate things. You need this money to grow, not to save Tokyo.
Um, the superdemons aren't what's killing Tokyo; massively unstable DS is what's killing Tokyo. Killing all the superdemons means nothing if DS is still in freefall afterward; we also need to organize a massive, multi-month overhunt of the entire region, which does require money and other logistical support. After that, we're still not in the clear because, although the current crisis has been dealt with, the underlying issues will still remain. Without a massive, long-term presence in the city, Tokyo will simply devolve into Beijing, with the caveat that we don't have a real Legendary like Kesi around to keep a lid on things.

This simply isn't a line of thinking that anyone involved in the deal is thinking as.
[...]
Hiko would think in those terms. But she's the exception, not the rule. I mean something like .1% of magical girls made it to 10 years.
I can guarantee that Mami is, when she has the luxury of looking past the latest crisis of the month. That's why we still insist on our girls going to school; if we didn't we'd be having them skive off to mug people and pick pockets like most of the other groups probably do.
 
So as I review the math behind the negotiations I find it increasingly odd how against the equity negotiations people were. I mean by NPV standards, Sachiko would be losing money compared to going to the Casino and betting on black in the more plausible scenarios for your growth.
Well, for me, it was: a. Stuffing up the maths. b. Making inaccurate assumptions. c. Wanting to maximise NPV (I've done a finance unit, and that stuck :p ).

Compared to your maths...I don't know what you're doing for the growth rate. Like, considering how much we exploded, I'd say Sachiko's high balling our growth. But even low balling, with a high discount rate, she'd be above breaking even (just) after halving for risk. You're also (likely) looking at it from Sachiko's PoV i.e. what's the NPV for Sachiko. We've also got to consider our NPV as well, since that's more important to us. Our discount rate is going to be a lot lower than hers - using 2% payment, 2% long term growth and 3% discount, pretty sure we're looking at an NPV of >$10 mill. That's using a moderate short/med term growth, but it's still well over $5 mill, even taking a very low estimate of our short/med term growth. i.e. Just because it's not the best deal for her, doesn't make it a good deal for us.
I guess personally I don't really see the difference between what amounts to profit sharing vs interest payments.
Short term, it's basically a very good loan. Long term (though how likely we are to survive long term...well) this is very different to a normal loan. How agreeable would you be to a loan with payments every month, that doesn't have an end point? Where the payments also increased every month?
It's hard for me to grasp normal psychology sometimes.
Us humans are so illogical. :D
At 1% the amount of growth you'd need to see for it to be profitable for her is simply too high even if there were no remaining risk at all. She's guessing you'd need around a thousand girls to make enough for that to even break even, and she doesn't really expect you to be able to get that many.
:wtf: Is this short term, or med/long term? If that's med term, I'm surprised she's actually offering us this. (Short term makes sense). Edit: If she's thinking med term, possibly point out that we're looking to get territory capable of supporting (what, 1000-1200 meguca I think?), and thus are almost certainly going to have a population increase (even if just from Kyuubey being Kyuubey, but more likely also from refugees returning, or being brought out of storage or whatever).
It would have to include a fairly substantial payment to justify it: something along the lines of the NPV of a perpetuity of the current payment at the time of the buyback.
Ouch. But as expected.
She's wants you to know that she isn't trying to gouge you as you may think.
The above '600 girls' does give that impression...except I don't see that happening. Thus it's a worse deal from our side than she thinks.
Something that seems to have slipped people's notice is that The Magick Company (keeping in mind obviously that's the magical side name, her real businesses have their own names in the same way that your organization's businesses do) is the smallest of the "major" magical girl groups in Japan in terms of population. That group isn't actually much larger than the Kofu group in terms of population. It's only counted as major because of money.
No, that was something I figured. Hence why I was a bit 'what' about Elder Haman's refugee bit.
5) If everyone is already bandwagoning one option, it's hard to expect any traction on an alternative option if it doesn't at least adhere to some of what people seem to be agreeing on.
Yeah, a bit of a problem, especially with such low voters and plans (I mean, I think there's usually only 2-3 plans, and they don't look simple to put together).

Okay... I'd like to know how we'd calculate the NPV, but in principle not opposed. This is mainly an emergency escape hatch, so that if the need is felt we can exercise it.
...To get that amount, we'd be looking at ~5-10 years, with 20-30% of income saved, assuming a high discount rate. I don't think that's going to be possible (especially not as an emergency measure).
Uh... no. Even with Sachiko being the expert, it's not correct to defer to someone else when their fiduciary interests and yours are in conflict. And they were. Now the benefits of cooperation out weighed that conflict, and by quite a bit, but being an "expert" does not suddenly make someone immune to self-interest.
I think Kinematics was suggesting our meguca expert weigh in.
I considered something like an NPV including growth rates, but if your growth rate exceeds discount rates that could go to infinity.
*Phew* Our (indefinite) long term growth rate shouldn't be anything near her discount rate, but ignoring our growth rate makes that a lot more appealing.
In fact it's a worse deal than for regular humans, because in principle both parties in this deal are immortal, so there is no upper limit to how much money we will eventually have to pay Sachiko for this "equity share".
Companies/Corporations are (financially) assumed to be 'immortal' as well - both are only going to 'die' due to risks. This is an important part of share/bond prices - the discounting of a perpetuity/annuity. i.e. Very similar to what we've been doing here. The big difference is that shares/bonds can be bought/sold based on that perpetuity/annuity and that the value of (the annuity at least) doesn't increase - the value of the perpetuity would...probably increase? But probably not as well as ours would have to (i.e. it's an entirely optional thing).

Edit: Not unhappy with the deal, just happy to discuss it :p .
 
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Better explanation of the lifespan stuff.

Using 4 cubes for grief spirals:
For 3 morale, median lifespan is 9 years; average is about 14 years; and 90% will be dead within 30 years.
For 4 morale, median lifespan is 13 years; average is about 19 years; and 90% will be dead within 42 years.
For 5 morale, median lifespan is 18 years; average is about 27 years; and 90% will be dead within 61 years.

Using 2 cubes for grief spirals:
For 2 morale, median lifespan is 3 years; average is about 5 years; and 90% will be dead within 10 years.
For 3 morale, median lifespan is 5 years; average is about 7 years; and 90% will be dead within 15 years.


Median is 50% dead. Average works out to 65% dead across the board, and takes 50% longer than the median value. 90% dead takes about twice as long as the average (65%).
 
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Better explanation of the lifespan stuff.

Using 4 cubes for grief spirals:
For 3 morale, median lifespan is 9 years; average is about 14 years; and 90% will be dead within 30 years.
For 4 morale, median lifespan is 13 years; average is about 19 years; and 90% will be dead within 42 years.
For 5 morale, median lifespan is 18 years; average is about 27 years; and 90% will be dead within 61 years.

Using 2 cubes for grief spirals:
For 2 morale, median lifespan is 3 years; average is about 5 years; and 90% will be dead within 10 years.
For 3 morale, median lifespan is 5 years; average is about 7 years; and 90% will be dead within 15 years.

In general, 65% of the population will be dead by the 'average' lifespan.

Man. That's bleak.
 
Hmm. I thinking we should accept the deal, but maybe throw Sachiko a bone and keep her happy. The refugee thing made us come across as dicks.

We want her personally on our side, not just her company.
 
Oh, and if Hiko worked with a 4-cube spiral cover and a 3 morale, the odds of living 150 years is 1 in 100,000. Which is probably in the neighborhood of how many magical girls have lived in Japan since that point in time.
 
Hmm. I thinking we should accept the deal, but maybe throw Sachiko a bone and keep her happy. The refugee thing made us come across as dicks.

We want her personally on our side, not just her company.

Maybe someone could put together an omake taking advantage of the fact that we had a vet who likely was feeling tremendously over their head on the negotiations? Mami or someone else being called in to do damage control?
 
The question I'm looking at is why the hell is she even trying to make a(n infinite amount of) profit off of this at all, rather than seeing it as an investment in the continuation of Japan as a country and just making a donation? We're not even asking her to risk her life at all; what a deal!
Why wouldn't she try to come to a mutually beneficial arrangement?

[X] Accept Sachiko's counter offer, with the caveat that the NPV calculations must be reasonable, simple, and standard.
 
Have posted my revised group profile. I was wondering, could I get a threadmark for that? And is it possible for my omakes to join The List, and my girls to join the "Other Serenes"? :p
 
Um, the superdemons aren't what's killing Tokyo; massively unstable DS is what's killing Tokyo. Killing all the superdemons means nothing if DS is still in freefall afterward; we also need to organize a massive, multi-month overhunt of the entire region, which does require money and other logistical support. After that, we're still not in the clear because, although the current crisis has been dealt with, the underlying issues will still remain. Without a massive, long-term presence in the city, Tokyo will simply devolve into Beijing, with the caveat that we don't have a real Legendary like Kesi around to keep a lid on things.
This idea is rather ridiculous.

Even with its current population of meguca, if the youma were cleared the demon strength would gradually start to rise back to normal because the magical girls still there would naturally want to hunt demons in order to build up GCU for their own use and there's virtually no danger to them even in solo hunting as a green at this point.

There's no need for some sort of external organized hunt. Nor any money or logistics involved. Individual self interest would drive them to hunt like it always does.

The underlying issues as you put it are themselves not much of an issue for quite some time as in the short term there's going to be a huge glut of of cubes and territory relative to the number of magical girls. They simply don't have the numbers to drive demon strength up high enough to repeat the problem. And they're not going to have any desire to do so either.

The Beijing scenario only occurs because of the safety net.

Claiming Tokyo is for your benefit, not Japan as a whole.

Oh, and if Hiko worked with a 4-cube spiral cover and a 3 morale, the odds of living 150 years is 1 in 100,000. Which is probably in the neighborhood of how many magical girls have lived in Japan since that point in time.
Determining how many magical girls have been alive in Japan over a long period would be really hard, I mean you'd need to find accurate population of Japan over time and then take the integral of it.

Though really anyone that lives that long is not going to have a personal morale of 3 for much of that time period. If I was modeling it more closely though it wouldn't be at all smooth. You'd probably see the massive initial drop going from contract to veteran gradually flattening out and then another steep drop when you are isolated from your original peers by agelessness, and another drop when your family is dying of old age.
 
So as I review the math behind the negotiations I find it increasingly odd how against the equity negotiations people were. I mean by NPV standards, Sachiko would be losing money compared to going to the Casino and betting on black in the more plausible scenarios for your growth.
How many people were actually against the idea. My impression was one person freaked the fuck out and everyone else was like "hmm?".
 
Why wouldn't she try to come to a mutually beneficial arrangement?
There is a time for rent-seeking behavior. A crisis that stands to kill 13-38 million people in three months and cause ripple effects that will destroy Japan as a country is not that time.

This idea is rather ridiculous.

Even with its current population of meguca, if the youma were cleared the demon strength would gradually start to rise back to normal because the magical girls still there would naturally want to hunt demons in order to build up GCU for their own use and there's virtually no danger to them even in solo hunting as a green at this point.
Hmm, I was under the impression that there was something like 600-700 magical girls left in the greater Tokyo area, a number sure to decrease even now, while we're still hunting youma? Even if they all hunted full time (which they can't, or they'd all starve from lack of food and shelter), they can barely even fully hunt 1700 territory, let alone the massive overhunt required here. I was under the impression that we need to have outside forces come in to stabilize the area, and fast, because DS has been in the danger zone for a long time already.

Am I wrong in this assumption, and things would actually stabilize without our intervention, so long as the youma were killed? If that's the case, why didn't the Incubators solve the problem already by having Kesi blow through the area and kill everything in a month?

How many people were actually against the idea. My impression was one person freaked the fuck out and everyone else was like "hmm?".
Yeah, pretty much just me and @Aranfan were vocally against the idea, him much more than me. In the short term it's a perfectly workable idea, but the entire point of this deal is to make it a permanent fixture between the two organizations, and I'm of the opinion that five, ten, or more years from now, we're going to look back at this deal and wonder why the hell we made it, and our only hope is that public opinion will have soured enough on Sachiko's end that she'll want to be rid of it almost as much as we will.
 
There is a time for rent-seeking behavior. A crisis that stands to kill 13-38 million people in three months and cause ripple effects that will destroy Japan as a country is not that time.
If you refuse to let people benefit from helping you, then they won't. Any plan that requires other people to be willing to act like saints for your benefit is doomed to failure.
 
Hmm, I was under the impression that there was something like 600-700 magical girls left in the greater Tokyo area, a number sure to decrease even now, while we're still hunting youma? Even if they all hunted full time (which they can't, or they'd all starve from lack of food and shelter), they can barely even fully hunt 1700 territory, let alone the massive overhunt required here. I was under the impression that we need to have outside forces come in to stabilize the area, and fast, because DS has been in the danger zone for a long time already.
Around 800-900 now. With solo hunting they can get over 1700. Plus food is fairly easy to steal and they can live homeless same as they are now.

Am I wrong in this assumption, and things would actually stabilize without our intervention, so long as the youma were killed? If that's the case, why didn't the Incubators solve the problem already by having Kesi blow through the area and kill everything in a month?
Because they keep her safe. Getting a magical girl with that much power and the mindset to be a troubleshooter on for them is rare. They don't risk her on anything that's not a sure thing. And she's high end, but there'd still be a small chance of failure, particularly on the Beholder. They can't risk losing her on that when she's holding down so many other locations with less severe infestations.

A dozen cities of 4 million is worth more than one city of 37 million, and a lot less dangerous.
 
You on the other hand portrayed yourselves as rather blunter and more self serving than expected (particularly with the veiled threat with something mostly unrelated), and that may not have a monetary value but it is a consideration. The threat wasn't even particularly threatening because if you look at the map, you have to cross through someone else's territory to get to her, which is why she hasn't had any refugees reach her. But it does speak about who you are.

The refugee issue is absolutely related, as that is the primary reason we have to borrow from Sachiko instead of a a bank.

Furthermore it shows a disconnect from reality to depict our position as self serving, when we are trying to help girls not die, and reduce the pressure on all the other small magical girl organizations.

It's Sachiko that is clearly operating from a self centered position that is focused on preserving her own assets and her future position instead of concern for the current needs of the magical girl population. It's the height of hypocrisy for her to accuse us of being self-serving.

You have more faith in banks than I do if you think they wouldn't. But part of the issue is that you don't actually need this money to stop the outbreak. You need this money to benefit from stopping it.

I find this incredibly disturbing. I can totally understand Sachiko misunderstanding us like this, but you are presenting this as the GM stating a fact that is simply untrue. And I cannot comprehend how you came to this conclusion.

You are right that we don't need this money to stop the youma outbreak. You are simply factually wrong in accusing us of needing this money to secure a position in Tokyo. Which you ought to know since you know our balance sheets, and have been here for over six months of discussion on the issue. The only way you can make such an accusation is by a willful disregard for where our money is going and by selectively focusing on some comments by a few at the expense of the majority of the thread.

We need this money for the refugees. We wouldn't even be approaching Sachiko for money if it were not for the refugee problem. Heck, we even sold a ton of grief cubes to Nagoya so we would have a war chest that specifically included a budget for funding expansion in Tokyo. It's just that first of all, the clearing of Tokyo is taking much longer than planned, and at a much greater expense, and second refugees are devouring our entire budget.

The initial 2 months of refugees has stripped our warchest to the limit, including all the money we had set aside for eventual expansion of the courier service. Just look at where all our money is going! It's apartments and equipment for refugees, or equipment replacement for the teams fighting in Tokyo.

Furthermore we now have a housing need for Serena (which is directly related to clearing the youma problem) although we could (barely) manage to handle that without going to Sachiko.

The immediate needs are all refugees! Now of course, since we are borrowing money, we have to think about all other monetary needs in the near future (which includes expanding into Tokyo) but that does not change the fact that refugees are the overwhelming driving force behind borrowing money now. And in fact the refugees of past turns are why we don't have the resources to fund expansion in Tokyo anymore.

Now I can totally understand Sachiko being confused, and thinking we are selfishly focused on expanding into Tokyo, but for you as the GM to think that is nothing short of astounding. What thread have you been reading? Especially after you have made absolutely clear to us that if we leave Tokyo unorganized that this crisis will just happen again. Which means that expansion in Tokyo for stability is not at odds with an altruistic motive. Most of the arguments in this thread have been primarily over how direct our control needs to be to achieve this level of stability, and how much we can expand without making that expansion destabilizing.

If we were self serving, we could have locked all the refugees out, pushing them onto the other organizations around us, undermining them, and driving them to collapse, while saving all our resources for seizing control of Tokyo.

But no, apparently our "lets all work together so we can save everyone!" is considered the height of selfish actions?

And pointing out obliquely that we are taking on refugees and thus lessening the burden on the rest of the other magical girl organizations, and that maybe loaning us money actually does benefit her is somehow considered "unrelated?" That's just bizarre. And you know that the connection, because I even said so. Lots of people said so.

Sachiko really is starting to come across as narrow minded, seeing herself as "safe" and oblivious to the pressures being created and how they effect all the other organizations around her.

And yeah, that generates some resentment. Now I'm able to ignore that because I see no reason to cut our nose off to spite our face, but it accentuates that Sachiko ought to be running a business, not a government.

Yeah, a bit of a problem, especially with such low voters and plans (I mean, I think there's usually only 2-3 plans, and they don't look simple to put together).

Then take a plan and modify it.

I think Kinematics was suggesting our meguca expert weigh in.

Our what?

This idea is rather ridiculous.

Even with its current population of meguca, if the youma were cleared the demon strength would gradually start to rise back to normal because the magical girls still there would naturally want to hunt demons in order to build up GCU for their own use and there's virtually no danger to them even in solo hunting as a green at this point.

There's no need for some sort of external organized hunt. Nor any money or logistics involved. Individual self interest would drive them to hunt like it always does.

The underlying issues as you put it are themselves not much of an issue for quite some time as in the short term there's going to be a huge glut of of cubes and territory relative to the number of magical girls. They simply don't have the numbers to drive demon strength up high enough to repeat the problem. And they're not going to have any desire to do so either.

The Beijing scenario only occurs because of the safety net.

Claiming Tokyo is for your benefit, not Japan as a whole.

This is monstrously unfair. You have made it explicitly clear to us both IC and OOC that cities around the world are locked into cycles of youma outbreaks that can and have caused entire cities to be exterminated. You have made it clear that this is happening right now in Osaka, where despite the present example of Tokyo the local organizations are continuing to hunt to a level of DS that generates youma.

Sure, the glut of cubes will mean that for the first six to nine months after clearing the youma that Tokyo will be peaceful, but what happens after that? Realize that there will be obvious conflicts, both by outside powers coming in to grab a portion of the Tokyo pot, and by Tokyo organizations (both new and old) attempting to seize power. The stockpile of cubes will in someways make things worse, because organizations will be able to devote more resources to war instead of to hunting, depending on their cube stockpile to preserve them through the war.

You even explicitly told us that the Incubators would not dispatch their pet Legendary to clear Tokyo (despite being only a couple hours away by plane) because the Incubators considered Tokyo to be likely to revert to another youma outbreak shortly after being cleared, unless we could provide evidence that we would politically stabilize the city. You can't turn around now and claim that Tokyo actually will be naturally stable after all. Why won't the Incubators dispatch their pet Legendary then?

Not to mention, if we did clear Tokyo, and then did not expand into Tokyo - why wouldn't the Tokyo girls assume they have a safety net?

Wouldn't they assume that the Serenes will just dispatch Serena again if another youma outbreak happens?

This has been an extremely exhausting campaign, straining our resources to the breaking point, and diverting us away from major plans that we had for both internal improvements and technological research. Are we just going to keep on doing this? Unless we expand we will not be able to afford doing this, we lack the monetary power of Magick Corp, and the meguca power of Nagoya. Our main advantage is our hunting to territory efficiency ratio which, obviously, requires expansion of territory to leverage properly.
 
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I'm not sure what the latest disagreement is about, but can I just say I'm really glad you guys planned and voted to take in the refugees?

Props all around!

/late to the party
 
The refugee issue is absolutely related, as that is the primary reason we have to borrow from Sachiko instead of a a bank.

Furthermore it shows a disconnect from reality to depict our position as self serving, when we are trying to help girls not die, and reduce the pressure on all the other small magical girl organizations.

It's Sachiko that is clearly operating from a self centered position that is focused on preserving her own assets and her future position instead of concern for the current needs of the magical girl population. It's the height of hypocrisy for her to accuse us of being self-serving.
There's nothing inherently wrong with being self-serving. It's just you shouldn't expect saint like donations from self serving behavior.

Now I can totally understand Sachiko being confused, and thinking we are selfishly focused on expanding into Tokyo, but for you as the GM to think that is nothing short of astounding. What thread have you been reading? Especially after you have made absolutely clear to us that if we leave Tokyo unorganized that this crisis will just happen again. Which means that expansion in Tokyo for stability is not at odds with an altruistic motive. Most of the arguments in this thread have been primarily over how direct our control needs to be to achieve this level of stability, and how much we can expand without making that expansion destabilizing.
The thing is your original goals were altruistically stabilizing the region and then leaving it to develop on its own with some level of oversight. That was altruistic. Now you're planning to become the largest organization in Japan as a result of it. It's a fundamental shift in your end goals, and it is a self serving shift.

If we were self serving, we could have locked all the refugees out, pushing them onto the other organizations around us, undermining them, and driving them to collapse, while saving all our resources for seizing control of Tokyo.

But no, apparently our "lets all work together so we can save everyone!" is considered the height of selfish actions?

And pointing out obliquely that we are taking on refugees and thus lessening the burden on the rest of the other magical girl organizations, and that maybe loaning us money actually does benefit her is somehow considered "unrelated?" That's just bizarre. And you know that the connection, because I even said so. Lots of people said so.
The refugee situation is triggered by your own actions though. You're handling it to some degree but still a lot of them are leaking out and affecting everyone else. It's similar to many other refugee crises. Like the people that blame Turkey and Greece for the flood of refugees into Europe because of their porous borders. They don't bear responsibility for the people having reason to flee their native countries, but they are easy to blame for letting them enter Europe.

And the more stable organizations aren't undermined by them at all in this case really. In Europe the idea of just killing them off or leaving them to starve is anathema. In this situation with rule of law being only as strong as your strongest enforcer, and everyone's resources so limited, it's far easier. A common foreigner threat makes it ever so much easier to stabilize one's rule as countless politicians have used it to.

You have made it clear that this is happening right now in Osaka, where despite the present example of Tokyo the local organizations are continuing to hunt to a level of DS that generates youma.
I've done nothing of this sort that's for sure. Osaka is the meta-stable state at the end. They intentionally have high demon strength and nuke down Youma as they appear. With a very well trained and equipped deep pool of Elites the Junta are quite good at it, and when they appear in Hiko's territory she and her own elites deal with them.

Osaka's state is quite stable. Mind you Nagoya doesn't really regard it as particularly sane. But as long as you don't let enough Youma be around at the same time for adaptations to be an issue, it's stable. Hiko doesn't particularly like it as it endangers her girls periodically when one spawns before she puts them down. Which is why she wanted territory outside her region as a release valve. She could ship anyone that isn't tied to Kyoto over to Tokyo territory where they'd be safer. Her goals are entirely dictated to what keeps her girls from harm. She won't go to war because that would endanger her girls more than putting up with the lack of borders. Likewise she didn't care to fight in Tokyo because that would have risked harm to her girls.

Sure, the glut of cubes will mean that for the first six to nine months after clearing the youma that Tokyo will be peaceful, but what happens after that? Realize that there will be obvious conflicts, both by outside powers coming in to grab a portion of the Tokyo pot, and by Tokyo organizations (both new and old) attempting to seize power. The stockpile of cubes will in someways make things worse, because organizations will be able to devote more resources to war instead of to hunting, depending on their cube stockpile to preserve them through the war.
Of course they will. But you don't need to be in charge to prevent that. Kinematics originally planned to set up independent governments in Tokyo with some sort of overarching treaty organization
You even explicitly told us that the Incubators would not dispatch their pet Legendary to clear Tokyo (despite being only a couple hours away by plane) because the Incubators considered Tokyo to be likely to revert to another youma outbreak shortly after being cleared, unless we could provide evidence that we would politically stabilize the city. You can't turn around now and claim that Tokyo actually will be naturally stable after all. Why won't the Incubators dispatch their pet Legendary then?
The Incubators have a long view though. In the short view it's likely to take at least a year before numbers in Tokyo are even high enough to support driving demon strength above normal. The Incubators want a permanent solution ideally. Or at the very least one that lasts years.

Not to mention, if we did clear Tokyo, and then did not expand into Tokyo - why wouldn't the Tokyo girls assume they have a safety net?

Wouldn't they assume that the Serenes will just dispatch Serena again if another youma outbreak happens?
The fundamental difference is that they've been the hunted. Beijing has never been allowed to deteriorate to the point where organization breaks down and there's mass casualties.



It's hard to explain my issues. Though separating GM and in character is a bit tricky at this point. But as a GM I've noticed a fundamental shift in your end game in order to maximize your size at the end of things. And that's self serving.

In character as Sachiko, of course you're assumed to be doing things for self serving reasons, that's the only reason humans have for doing anything. There's no possibility you're doing this without a benefit for yourself.
 
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