Victoria Falls Worldbuilding Thread

Any party that is associated with Russian influence here is likely to suffer a precipitous loss of popularity.
People will not generally vote for their own destruction without a previous, prolonged period of indoctrination.

Are you so sure?

I am pretty sure someone with a far-right ideology would frame Victorian atrocities in a very different light than you do. And thus Russian support for Victorian atrocities would also be seen differently.

I know nothing about Vlaams Belang. But I do know that there will be those in Belgium who look at what Russia is doing and will see them favorably for it, and want their help to do similar things in Belgium.

fasquardon
 
Are you so sure?
I am pretty sure someone with a far-right ideology would frame Victorian atrocities in a very different light than you do. And thus Russian support for Victorian atrocities would also be seen differently.

I know nothing about Vlaams Belang. But I do know that there will be those in Belgium who look at what Russia is doing and will see them favorably for it, and want their help to do similar things in Belgium.
fasquardon
Anders Breivik is not hailed as a hero anywhere in Europe, even among fellow travellers. Association with him is political kryptonite for a mainstream political movement. Brenton Harris' murder of 51 Muslims did not help the alt-right cause win electoral success.

The Vics murdered civilians on live TV. With swords. Set to music.
This is Europe. Ethnic cleansing is not something they are unfamiliar with. Extremist violence is not something they are unfamiliar with. And even their terrorist groups do not go around murdering civilians en masse and retain public support.

The far-right thrives on creating acceptable targets.
But it's kinda hard to justify the murder of a bunch of middle-aged and elderly white professors on TV as acceptable targets, even among their target audience. Especially after you did so under the pretense of a meeting.

There is a reason why Victoria's only international allies are Russia and Russia-dominated nations.
 
Anders Breivik is not hailed as a hero anywhere in Europe, even among fellow travellers. Association with him is political kryptonite for a mainstream political movement. Brenton Harris' murder of 51 Muslims did not help the alt-right cause win electoral success.

The Vics murdered civilians on live TV. With swords. Set to music.
This is Europe. Ethnic cleansing is not something they are unfamiliar with. Extremist violence is not something they are unfamiliar with. And even their terrorist groups do not go around murdering civilians en masse and retain public support.

The far-right thrives on creating acceptable targets.
But it's kinda hard to justify the murder of a bunch of middle-aged and elderly white professors on TV as acceptable targets, even among their target audience. Especially after you did so under the pretense of a meeting.

There is a reason why Victoria's only international allies are Russia and Russia-dominated nations.

Honestly, "ally" is a strong word.

Perhaps "Puppetmaster" and "Exploiters" are a better fit.
 
The Vics murdered civilians on live TV. With swords. Set to music.
This is Europe. Ethnic cleansing is not something they are unfamiliar with. Extremist violence is not something they are unfamiliar with. And even their terrorist groups do not go around murdering civilians en masse and retain public support.

Keep in mind, the environment in which the Victorians were acting in was basically one where the worst aspects of our present day win and where civilization is coming apart under the stress of resource exhaustion, economic mismanagement, political mismanagement, pestilence and violence. I find it rather easy to believe that in such an environment, after decades of the targeting of universities as the power centers of "teh libs" and leaders of a "cultural marxist", "postmodernist" effort to undermine Western Civilization and "rationalsim" the people who today fret about their societies being destroyed by the entire population of Turkey moving from Turkey to Germany would be receptive to the idea that the Victorians committing televised murders of "librul cultural marxists" is a good thing.

Good ideas, sanity and kindness are natural to humans, but just as natural are bad ideas, insanity and nastiness. In a world where Victoria could exist and millions of Americans embraced the ideas of Kraft and Rumford as good ideas, I expect that the societies of Europe, which are after all closely linked to the USA culturally, are likely to have to deal with at least hundreds of thousands of people who buy into Victorian retroculture and millions more who just want people to stop distracting them with "pointless" political arguments and will happily follow the orders of retroculturalists who gain power over them.

Europe is not uniquely resistant to fascism.

fasquardon
 
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Honestly, "ally" is a strong word.
Perhaps "Puppetmaster" and "Exploiters" are a better fit.
Ally is the diplomatic euphemism. :V
Keep in mind, the environment in which the Victorians were acting in was basically one where the worst aspects of our present day win and where civilization is coming apart under the stress of resource exhaustion, economic mismanagement, political mismanagement, pestilence and violence. I find it rather easy to believe that in such an environment, after decades of the targeting of universities as the power centers of "teh libs" and leaders of a "cultural marxist", "postmodernist" effort to undermine Western Civilization and "rationalsim" the people who today fret about their societies being destroyed by the entire population of Turkey moving from Turkey to Germany would be receptive to the idea that the Victorians committing televised murders of "librul cultural marxists" is a good thing.

Good ideas, sanity and kindness are natural to humans, but just as natural are bad ideas, insanity and nastiness. In a world where Victoria could exist and millions of Americans embraced the ideas of Kraft and Rumford as good ideas, I expect that the societies of Europe, which are after all closely linked to the USA culturally, are likely to have to deal with at least hundreds of thousands of people who buy into Victorian retroculture and millions more who just want people to stop distracting them with "pointless" political arguments and will happily follow the orders of retroculturalists who gain power over them.

Europe is not uniquely resistant to fascism.

fasquardon
1) None of this was spontaneous or inevitable.
People are not always good or rational, but they are usually predictable, at least for the purposes of fiction. A surge in popularity for separatists sufficient for them to pull of a secession does not come out of the blue, and requires actual justifications.

In the US it required a combination of a foreign power succeeding beyond all expectations, and a domestic administration fucking up by the numbers.
It was neither easy nor quick.

2) Communism did not become more popular in Europe after the Soviet Union invaded Czechoslovakia and Hungary.
Russia-aligned parties in the heart of Western Europe aren't going to become more popular with the invasion of the Baltic States, or with the Russia-sponsored partition of Canada. Or Victoria's....Victorianess.

This has nothing to do with the essential goodness or otherwise of mankind.
The lamb will not vote for dinner with the lion after watching it eat siblings. Voters will not vote for destabilizing their own nations while staring at the results of destabilization in the face.

Basic pattern recognition applies in the absence of Alexei rolling natural 20s.
 
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The lamb will not vote for dinner with the lion after watching it eat siblings. Voters will not vote for destabilizing their own nations while staring at the results of destabilization in the face.

Of course. It could never happen here. And certainly not in a world where Alexander and Victoria are apparently making all the right moves. Certainly no lambs would be under the false impression that they were one of the lions...

1) None of this was spontaneous or inevitable.
People are not always good or rational, but they are usually predictable, at least for the purposes of fiction. A surge in popularity for separatists sufficient for them to pull of a secession does not come out of the blue, and requires actual justifications.

Sure. But that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I'm just disagreeing with what you seem to be saying: that Europeans are far too reasonable to fall into the same trap as Americans in this future history have, that there would be no self-destructive retrocultural movements. So either you aren't communicating your real point clearly or you need to read more European history.

fasquardon
 
Of course. It could never happen here. And certainly not in a world where Alexander and Victoria are apparently making all the right moves. Certainly no lambs would be under the false impression that they were one of the lions...
Victoria and Alexander are not making all the right moves.
You can tell by the fact that the Russian Empire's reconquests stopped at the Ukraine border, Finland and Poland didn't fall, the EU still exists and a member of the House of Hohenzollern doesn't currently sit on the throne of Germany as they were outright promised at the very beginning of this entire affair.

Alexei's plans have been wildly successful. But not all events favor him,and he has limited resources.
His primary Euro targets have been heavyweights like France and Italy, or strategics like the Baltics and Greece.
Belgium doesnt rate. Not while Germany stands.
Sure. But that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I'm just disagreeing with what you seem to be saying: that Europeans are far too reasonable to fall into the same trap as Americans in this future history have, that there would be no self-destructive retrocultural movements. So either you aren't communicating your real point clearly or you need to read more European history.

fasquardon
It has nothing to do with their being innately reasonable, and everything to do with their proximity to an external threat concentrating attention, and a more recent history of conflict and its consequences.

France is quite literally aflame on their southern border. Britain is exporting refugees.
The Baltics fell.
And Kaliningrad Oblast is two or three fuel tanks trip for an MBT from the Belgian border.
 
Victoria and Alexander are not making all the right moves.
You can tell by the fact that the Russian Empire's reconquests stopped at the Ukraine border, Finland and Poland didn't fall, the EU still exists and a member of the House of Hohenzollern doesn't currently sit on the throne of Germany as they were outright promised at the very beginning of this entire affair.

You mean like elements of the French right cheered the rise of the Nazi party in Germany even though invading France was a major goal of said Nazi party?

'Cuz that's totally a thing that happened. And given their assumptions (that socialists and communists were pure evil) it was even a reasonable conclusion.

Like the saying goes, garbage in, garbage out. Works just as well for humans, even European humans, as it does for computers.

Alexei's plans have been wildly successful. But not all events favor him,and he has limited resources.
His primary Euro targets have been heavyweights like France and Italy, or strategics like the Baltics and Greece.
Belgium doesnt rate. Not while Germany stands.

Because only Alexander directly intervening can create retroculturalist fascists in Belgium? That's silly! People can make their own decisions. Indeed, I suspect that the overwhelming majority of people in this world will.

Bluntly speaking, Russia doesn't have anywhere near the power to force everything to go its way. The only way for Alexander to achieve the success Poptart has assigned to him is to be lucky and really good at surfing the waves of opportunity.

Look at the world between WW1 and WW2. After Italy went fascist, there was a wave of fascism that spread across the world. It wasn't because Benny the Moose was personally intervening in every country to spread right-wing authoritarianism. In some cases, like the Spanish Civil War, he did. But in many cases he had nothing to do with a country going down the tubes politically - rather, Italy and other fascist regimes seemed to be dealing well with the Great Depression and it seemed preferable to many to embracing democratic socialism or revolutionary communism.

I suspect that Alexander, like Mussolini, would have rather limited abilities to aggressively re-shape the world, but would benefit from appearing to have come up with an answer for how to survive the plagues and economic disruption.

France is quite literally aflame on their southern border. Britain is exporting refugees.

Sure, there's no possible way any of those things can be spun to support a fascistic narrative.

fasquardon
 
@natruska, over on Stars and Stripes Forever, you wrote a post examining warfare within the post-nuclear United States.

How much of this would still ring true for the smaller factions on the North American continent? What would be different (other than the nuclear exclusion zones)?
Not @natruska but I see a lot of differences.

Key factors that change the picture:

1) Victoria going around smashing concentrations of old assets continuously and intentionally
2) Victoria doing this as part of a premeditated policy of preventing any reunification from happening spontaneously.
3) To a lesser extent, the rest of the world being basically intact, which is often not the case in nuclear apocalypse scenarios though I can't comment on this setting in particular.
4) Probably larger population totals even with the political chaos, because the US isn't a bombed-out nuclear wasteland as a whole. You can still grow crops well enough for subsistence agriculture, you didn't usually have the population of an entire city dying all in one horrible spasm. The infrastructure's wrecked, but there are more people in a lot of places than would be the case in a typical post-nuclear-war scenario.

Think of it like this. The various factions control vast swathes of land, but don't have very large armies. Their troops are mobile and don't rely on supply lines, being either reliable technicals or footsloggers who can forage for food. But those troops aren't able to fight independently for very long. Even the richest units from factions like Dodge City probably only carry a few firefights worth of ammunition, and the poorest ones are lucky if they can scrape together a full magazine.
The biggest thing is that the underlined gets complicated.

Victoria tends to break up any faction that controls vast swathes of land- if they came across a loose confederation of neo-feudal warlords stretching across hundreds of miles, they'd probably just decapitate it with extreme prejudice every time it looked like someone was going to unite the place. This also means that nested feudalism with several layers of governance becomes less common, because for most post-Collapse polities there are no "outlying provinces" more than about an hour or two's drive on bad roads away from the central control of the capital. That's a small enough area that you just don't need more than one layer of vassals to keep it under control.

Conversely, larger populations mean larger theoretical army sizes, with the caveat that the Vicks tend to crush anyone who actually tries to arm them all.

This may actually further exaggerate the infeasibility of capturing cities, though, and may explain why the city-state is such a common form of governance here. Because the only people who are 'allowed' to have an army big enough to sack a large city are the Victorians, and anyone who successfully sacks a city is under the Victorians' eye in a bad way even if the Vicks put them up to it.

So you end up with a lot of stable equilibria where the Victorians are actively glad to see internecine conflict between city-states. But if such conflicts aren't stopped, they drag out indefinitely between puny armies with minimal force projection who basically just spend years gradually burning the small towns and countryside between them into a no man's land.

Though then you DO get a scenario something like this...

Everything that makes up an army is precious. Manpower is rare, trained soldiers even rarer. Munitions, weapons, vehicles, all are incredibly hard to replace even with an industrial base. Even if you "win" a war, you won't have long to celebrate if you threw your army away doing it.

So combat is rare and indecisive. Patrols will run into each other and take shots, but they don't have the ammunition or the nerve to get close and do serious damage. Ambushes are probably the main mode of actually wearing the enemy down, if you commit to that, but it's a serious commitment. Moving troops into enemy territory, close enough to risk being rooted out and destroyed.

And of course, like our friend Bloody Mary just showed, a successful ambush on a big troop column is hellish. High risk, high reward.

And then you add in the nature of towns and fortifications in all of this. For a small gang, clearing an entire town room by room is just impossible. They'll all be gunned down. For larger groups it's probably feasible, but at that point it's easier to negotiate a surrender or starve them out. You don't want to lose soldiers (because you will lose a lot) clearing every house room by room, not in a town of hundreds or thousands of people. And you don't want to leave these forts and towns behind you, because they might be hiding enemy technicals that'll jump out and raid your precious supplies.
All this is pretty much true, to be fair. Except that in many cases you just never get to the part where you...

So you wear the enemy down over time, test his defenses, and decide to attack for real. The goal here isn't really to smash into the enemy army and destroy it. That'd be great, but if your opponent's weak enough to be destroyed that easily, he probably isn't going to come out and fight you. Instead, you try to outmaneuver each other with your speedy cavalry, fighting quick skirmishes and swapping bits of ground. He'll hold back in his interior areas, finding somewhere safe to dig in, and the sieges will start. If you're lucky, you'll be able to convince the border towns to just swap sides and make it easy.
...Because the territories involved aren't that large and people who try to maintain large forces of 'speedy cavalry' tend to get squashed. Basically, there's none of...

And if he does, that's when the fun stuff comes out. Pre-war tanks, armored technicals, combat aircraft! There's probably not a lot of anti-tank weaponry lying around, certainly not enough to fully equip most armies, so tanks and armored vehicles will dominate field battles. They'll have the mobility to make breakthroughs and encircle the enemy, while infantry fighting is probably tame as they mostly hold the frontlines in place.
None of this. Almost nobody has pre-Collapse Old World military equipment like this.

So, that comparison I was thinking of:

Small mobile cavalry units roam around the countryside raiding and skirmishing with each other. Occasionally an offensive will put a castle or town under siege. These sieges are the main mode of warfare, tying up most of the attacker's force using a small number of troops. Pitched field battles are fairly rare but decisive, and are dominated by heavily armored troops who can smash through infantry.
So you get this, but without the heavy armored troops.

...

Also, it's very dangerous in this setting to be a large polity trying to expand by conquering weaker neighbors, because the Vicks will just wait until you've got several restive vassals to worry about, then play out their Cortez fantasies by allying with your rebellious vassals and remaining angry bitter enemies, in order to sack and pillage your central capital.
 
Would like to put together some India things, but I've got some questions on details:
1) How Hindu-fascist? This is more to establish which political parties can survive the Collapse. If India is Hindu supremacist, then we have a massively expanded Bharatiya Janata Party and RSS, for instance. This also determines internal stability, seeing as it's hard to be a functional state when ten percent of your population hates your government.
2) How badly hit in the Collapse? While not as significant as China, the US accounts for a decent chunk of Indian export income re: generic pharmaceuticals and so on. If you let me know broadly how bad the initial shock was I can go state by state.
3) Pak status? It seems unlikely that Pakistan would destabilize so easily with nuclear weapons ready in its silos and sitting on launch-on-warning, and a Pakistan w/o nukes may be a target for a more nationalist PM. Western Command is big enough to try to attempt occupation.
4) How hostile to China? This influences the size and capability of Eastern Command which in turn pulls troops off the Pakistani border. At the same time terrain means that force sizes and composition are restricted - Eastern Command has little armor and lots of choppers for instance.
5) The Navy. By 2030 the Navy atm aims for primarily indigenous ships, among which are two carriers and six ballistic missile submarines. That in the absence of the PLAN or USN can dominate the Indian Ocean....if funded.
@PoptartProdigy any answer however vague would help. Thanks!
 
Would like to put together some India things, but I've got some questions on details:
1) How Hindu-fascist? This is more to establish which political parties can survive the Collapse. If India is Hindu supremacist, then we have a massively expanded Bharatiya Janata Party and RSS, for instance. This also determines internal stability, seeing as it's hard to be a functional state when ten percent of your population hates your government.
2) How badly hit in the Collapse? While not as significant as China, the US accounts for a decent chunk of Indian export income re: generic pharmaceuticals and so on. If you let me know broadly how bad the initial shock was I can go state by state.
3) Pak status? It seems unlikely that Pakistan would destabilize so easily with nuclear weapons ready in its silos and sitting on launch-on-warning, and a Pakistan w/o nukes may be a target for a more nationalist PM. Western Command is big enough to try to attempt occupation.
4) How hostile to China? This influences the size and capability of Eastern Command which in turn pulls troops off the Pakistani border. At the same time terrain means that force sizes and composition are restricted - Eastern Command has little armor and lots of choppers for instance.
5) The Navy. By 2030 the Navy atm aims for primarily indigenous ships, among which are two carriers and six ballistic missile submarines. That in the absence of the PLAN or USN can dominate the Indian Ocean....if funded.
@PoptartProdigy any answer however vague would help. Thanks!
  1. Hindu-fascist is the outgoing majority, as of quest present. They greatly enjoyed settling up accounts with Pakistan, years ago, but since then things have soured significantly for them -- more on that in 3. This majority, however, is distinctly outgoing, as a new generation is coming to power extremely fucking sick of the pile of shit with which their parents have left them. Those threatening to replace them are far more willing to conduct outreach and are only not revolutionary because they haven't been bloodily suppressed yet. The incumbents are caught between earnestly believing in all of the horrible things they've done while actually being experienced government officials who can recognize how utterly they've screwed themselves.
  2. Pretty badly. That said, America did slide slowly into utter ruin, over roughly a decade, and given that the Collapse started with Trump fucking the world, India would have had some time to shift away. Not enough to exactly go home whistling, but enough to stave off utter collapse. (That said, remember: at least two decades where international trade was, on any meaningful scale, on cardiac arrest, paired with multiple pandemics and all of the greatest powers simply ceasing to exist, replaced by aggressive newcomers. It would not have been pretty).
  3. Pakistan was an alliance present to India.
    1. Alexander hit them with several punches in quick succession.
      1. With international trade and the oil market especially seizing, work to ensure that the tidal wave of refugees from the Middle East heads for Pakistan, which is relatively intact to start.
      2. Include agitators and spies in all that.
      3. Identify the nukes' positions.
      4. Foment tensions between Pakistan and India, which would not exactly strain your -- or anybody's -- resources.
      5. Foment an uprising while the Pakistani military is very fucking busy telling India to fuck off.
      6. Offer to help, knowing that Pakistan has literally no other options.
      7. Use the access this gives you to confirm the nukes' positions.
      8. Make clear to your commanders on the ground that you expect there to be International Incidents.
      9. Procure an international incident.
      10. "Russian troops exploded into action today, rapidly disarming what they claimed to be rogue Pakistani forces. Local commanders assured international observers that they are acting with the blessing of the legitimate Pakistani government, which, sadly, died in a tragic gasoline fighting accident earlier this evening. They also assured the press that they have made contact with nuclear arsenal commanders to ensure that no weapons fall into the hands of rogue forces."
      11. Stunningly, Pakistan does not recover.
      12. Make it quietly clear to India that this was a present, and you expect them not to undo all your hard work by annexing all of it; you've a story to sell.
    2. Pakistan has remained in chaos since largely due to Alex coming around and stirring the pot whenever it needs it. India's leaders were pretty happy at first to refrain from getting to do whatever they wanted -- beyond settling up border disputes in very permanent fashion -- in exchange for Russian support in the early days. However, since then it has become clear that the price of accepting the colossal humanitarian disaster on their western border is receiving just enough aid to hook them without enough to truly help, and being forced into being Alexander's subservient second front and manpower sink with China. This is a large part of what is driving the political shift in the present day -- the young people have had to deal with the unpleasant consequences of their parents' vileness and honestly sympathize more with the constant tide of Pakistani refugees than with their own political leadership, which is an achievement. The old guard are realizing that Russia has fucked them over with their own desires and prejudices, and are facing down the pride-searing prospect of having actually to invest resources in reestablishing a stable Pakistani state if they want the freedom of action to do...anything.
  4. Speaking of China, very hostile. Alexander heavily supported the goals and prospects of radical Indian movements, and encouraged them to take the time to settle accounts with China as well, following the collapse of the PRC. Once India realized that China was coming back together, they panicked and tried to stop it, but the reunification was very well-timed, and nobody had the resources to achieve anything other than presenting a very obvious external threat to further spur reunification. Now India, Japan, and Russia are chained together by the need to contain a very resurgent and very angry China. Between that and their Pakistani commitments -- and also Japanese-influenced SEA, which, while nominally allied, India does not remotely trust -- India is forced to invest a truly wild amount of resources just into securing their own borders. They had ambitions of becoming a great power. They are starting to realize how deftly Alexander has managed to fuck them on that.
  5. Lots of resources are going to the Army, or being sequestered for under-consideration plans to stabilize Pakistan. They have a navy, and I'd say it's fairly capable. Competitive with the forces PACS deploys to the region, although they are not dominant. Furthermore -- while, again, they are technically allied -- they do not trust Japan, and the IJN is huge thanks to Russian support and investment (Russia treating Japan like the Russian Far East Fleet and India like Russian Army Group South is a significant part of India's growing unease with this alliance).
 
I imagine Japan, overall, has a practically identical situation if you just swap the names and dates around. Just more extreme on every level, from the peoples' pissed off to resources sunken into endless pits, and of course the toxic dependence on Russia. I suppose the real, major difference would come down to the leadership. While there's hardly a positive picture of India's governing party given, there's a difference between being a "Fascist" and being a Fascist. Ultra-nationalism and religious/ethnic conflict is a hell of a drug, but I suppose an apt comparison would be Mussolini's Italy vs. Imperial Japan (fittingly enough) on the degree of ideologically driven madness. Like, the actual fascists were hardly good or effective, but there's certainly a difference in the extent of evil and insanity displayed.
 
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  1. Hindu-fascist is the outgoing majority, as of quest present. They greatly enjoyed settling up accounts with Pakistan, years ago, but since then things have soured significantly for them -- more on that in 3. This majority, however, is distinctly outgoing, as a new generation is coming to power extremely fucking sick of the pile of shit with which their parents have left them. Those threatening to replace them are far more willing to conduct outreach and are only not revolutionary because they haven't been bloodily suppressed yet. The incumbents are caught between earnestly believing in all of the horrible things they've done while actually being experienced government officials who can recognize how utterly they've screwed themselves.
  2. Pretty badly. That said, America did slide slowly into utter ruin, over roughly a decade, and given that the Collapse started with Trump fucking the world, India would have had some time to shift away. Not enough to exactly go home whistling, but enough to stave off utter collapse. (That said, remember: at least two decades where international trade was, on any meaningful scale, on cardiac arrest, paired with multiple pandemics and all of the greatest powers simply ceasing to exist, replaced by aggressive newcomers. It would not have been pretty).
  3. Pakistan was an alliance present to India.
    1. Alexander hit them with several punches in quick succession.
      1. With international trade and the oil market especially seizing, work to ensure that the tidal wave of refugees from the Middle East heads for Pakistan, which is relatively intact to start.
      2. Include agitators and spies in all that.
      3. Identify the nukes' positions.
      4. Foment tensions between Pakistan and India, which would not exactly strain your -- or anybody's -- resources.
      5. Foment an uprising while the Pakistani military is very fucking busy telling India to fuck off.
      6. Offer to help, knowing that Pakistan has literally no other options.
      7. Use the access this gives you to confirm the nukes' positions.
      8. Make clear to your commanders on the ground that you expect there to be International Incidents.
      9. Procure an international incident.
      10. "Russian troops exploded into action today, rapidly disarming what they claimed to be rogue Pakistani forces. Local commanders assured international observers that they are acting with the blessing of the legitimate Pakistani government, which, sadly, died in a tragic gasoline fighting accident earlier this evening. They also assured the press that they have made contact with nuclear arsenal commanders to ensure that no weapons fall into the hands of rogue forces."
      11. Stunningly, Pakistan does not recover.
      12. Make it quietly clear to India that this was a present, and you expect them not to undo all your hard work by annexing all of it; you've a story to sell.
    2. Pakistan has remained in chaos since largely due to Alex coming around and stirring the pot whenever it needs it. India's leaders were pretty happy at first to refrain from getting to do whatever they wanted -- beyond settling up border disputes in very permanent fashion -- in exchange for Russian support in the early days. However, since then it has become clear that the price of accepting the colossal humanitarian disaster on their western border is receiving just enough aid to hook them without enough to truly help, and being forced into being Alexander's subservient second front and manpower sink with China. This is a large part of what is driving the political shift in the present day -- the young people have had to deal with the unpleasant consequences of their parents' vileness and honestly sympathize more with the constant tide of Pakistani refugees than with their own political leadership, which is an achievement. The old guard are realizing that Russia has fucked them over with their own desires and prejudices, and are facing down the pride-searing prospect of having actually to invest resources in reestablishing a stable Pakistani state if they want the freedom of action to do...anything.
  4. Speaking of China, very hostile. Alexander heavily supported the goals and prospects of radical Indian movements, and encouraged them to take the time to settle accounts with China as well, following the collapse of the PRC. Once India realized that China was coming back together, they panicked and tried to stop it, but the reunification was very well-timed, and nobody had the resources to achieve anything other than presenting a very obvious external threat to further spur reunification. Now India, Japan, and Russia are chained together by the need to contain a very resurgent and very angry China. Between that and their Pakistani commitments -- and also Japanese-influenced SEA, which, while nominally allied, India does not remotely trust -- India is forced to invest a truly wild amount of resources just into securing their own borders. They had ambitions of becoming a great power. They are starting to realize how deftly Alexander has managed to fuck them on that.
  5. Lots of resources are going to the Army, or being sequestered for under-consideration plans to stabilize Pakistan. They have a navy, and I'd say it's fairly capable. Competitive with the forces PACS deploys to the region, although they are not dominant. Furthermore -- while, again, they are technically allied -- they do not trust Japan, and the IJN is huge thanks to Russian support and investment (Russia treating Japan like the Russian Far East Fleet and India like Russian Army Group South is a significant part of India's growing unease with this alliance).
How badly did climate change fuck up India?

There's several areas of concern. Fish for example.

qz.com

“There is no fish in the ocean”: The future has arrived in this Indian fishing village

The sea is barren thanks to climate change and overfishing.
Warming ocean temperatures will drive to extinction existing fisheries, combined with overfishing.

That segues to who will feed India.Water management malpractice and population means India farming is heavily input dependent.

And water... Climate change will change monsoon effects. It's not so much that there will be no water, but rather, India will be undergoing seasons of droughts and floods. At the same time even if ocean currents are affected.

And of course, the watershed is already a potential source of tension with China, Pakistan and India.
 
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How badly did climate change fuck up India?

There's several areas of concern. Fish for example.

qz.com

“There is no fish in the ocean”: The future has arrived in this Indian fishing village

The sea is barren thanks to climate change and overfishing.
Warming ocean temperatures will drive to extinction existing fisheries, combined with overfishing.

That segues to who will feed India.Water management malpractice and population means India farming is heavily input dependent.

And water... Climate change will change monsoon effects. It's not so much that there will be no water, but rather, India will be undergoing seasons of droughts and floods. At the same time even if ocean currents are affected.

And of course, the watershed is already a potential source of tension with China, Pakistan and India.
Canon regarding climate change is that Alexander's been pouring global resources into mitigating it as best he could, so "climate change has fucked up India about as badly as it already has in real life" is probably a good benchmark.

That is to say, it's noticeable, but any predicted future major climate disasters that haven't already happened in real life either never happened, or were reversed due to deliberate efforts to lower global CO2 levels.
 
Canon regarding climate change is that Alexander's been pouring global resources into mitigating it as best he could, so "climate change has fucked up India about as badly as it already has in real life" is probably a good benchmark.
Add ten years to it seeing as Alexander's meddlings take time. In that case per reports from the Home Ministry released a few years back we have the following issues:
1. Topsoil depletion and pesticides being washed into rivers -> Affects the northern plains breadbasket primarily.
2. Groundwater depletion across the Deccan -> Affects all major cities on the peninsula barring Chennai (which is rainwater, reservoir, and Cauvery atm).
3. Fish depletion -> Already seen in Bengal as the hilsa no longer are large or plentiful.
4. Monsoons being more erratic, harvests being poor -> 4-5 years of poor harvests can cause unrest (no longer famine thank god but unrest in spades as food prices spike).
5. Pollution and industrial effluent being poorly controlled leading to cancer and poison hotspots -> Affects mainly mining and refineries, e.g. Goa, UP, Jharkhand, Gujarat (Reliance refineries there).
That is environmental. The economic impacts are to be written.
Current outlook I have in mind is a series of Hindutva ministries, rampant unrest complete with riots and bombings, intermittent military interventions at the state and local level, and one interval similar to Indira's Emergency.
Thoughts?
 
Basically, though I suspect Alexander may actually have been able to reverse things from the 'worst' point of climate change, which probably occurred at some point in the 2030s. Global economic recession would already have been cutting into carbon emissions in the 2020s, as we've seen with the COVID-19 outbreak, and several decades of active effort since then may well mean CO2 levels have fallen off from a peak.
 
The interesting thing about GM confirmation about Hindu-fascism is how it affects regional geopolitics in the nations bordering the Indian Ocean.

India is already on track to be the world's most populous nation by 2024, and to hit 1.5 billion by 2030.
And 15% of it's population is Muslim, coming up to somewhere around 220 million minimum. That makes for a hell of a pool of discontent, even assuming that demographic trends of increasing Muslim numbers don't hold true.

The 170 million plus people of Bangladesh on it's eastern borders are Muslim; they have historically pretty good relations with India, but who knows how the administration will have screwed that up with their activities in Pakistan and inside their own country.
The 210 million plus of Pakistan are Muslim, and their opinion of Indian activity is unlikely to have improved over the last couple decades.

The larger implication is that having taken Alexander's bait, India will have had relatively little attention to spare for the east and southern coast of Africa in the last couple decades. No military bases, no....coercive treaties.
Meaning Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique South Africa et al mostly had the opportunity to grow unmolested.

Not a privilege every African nation would have gotten.
 
Yep. And a Hindu-fascist India (blegh) has to do something about that massive Muslim minority, that huge Christian minority, etc. Which is why the scenario is one of slow boil, bombings and terror and regional protests/strikes being broken up by use of force and emergency powers. Increasingly radicalizing not only the minorities but the regional devolutionists - Tamil nationalism can expect a boost for instance.
A purely Hindutva India would not have the strength to absorb Pakistan at all, let alone build up anything. Essentially very dependent on Russian interference in Pakistan to keep its border secure while the money flows instead to Central Reserve Police, BSF, and other paramilitary units.
 
A purely Hindutva India would not have the strength to absorb Pakistan at all, let alone build up anything. Essentially very dependent on Russian interference in Pakistan to keep its border secure while the money flows instead to Central Reserve Police, BSF, and other paramilitary units.
Probably not that bad.

India has a GDP 3x that of Russia IRL by PPP, even if it does lag behind in a fair number of hightech industries.
That is not going to change in an India that is still around 1.5 billion people, even if the Russian Empire is now 300 million people by conquest instead of 150 million. Russia has access to raw materials that I don't believe India does, but human capital has a mass all it's own.

What Alexei seems to have managed to do is to ensnarl India in such a way that they have to waste a lot of money on internal repression, in sitting on Pakistan and in preparing against China. They can't apply most of that improving economic output to improve themselves as fast as they normally could. Or attempt to project power outside their own immediate border region.

And the Hindufash administrations did their reputation abroad no particular favors; a sixth of the worlds current population is Muslim, including somewhere in the region of 40% of Africa's population.

EDIT
Speaking of which, China is probably keenly interested in Cali breaking free.

India sits across their primary sea lanes across the Indian Ocean to Africa and Europe.
Japanese-held Hawaii and the Phillipines sits across their lanes to the Pacific coast of South America and around the
Russia-dominated Panama government holds the Panama Canal.

Cali breaking free threatens Japan's hold in former US and Canadian territories.
I suspect Cali is going to receive diplomatic and economic overtures from across the Pacific the very same day they announce a break. Assuming those do not already exist.

Expect to see fireworks in Panama next.
Or a Chinese-held company finally getting around to digging that canal in Nicaragua that they signed an agreement about back in 2013
How are the Nepali taking all of this?
Keeping their heads the fuck down, I suppose.
They're right between China and India, and have less than 30 million people. Tourist industry would have taken a major hit, but they aren't reliant on foreign trade to outright survive. And have no critical strategic importance I can recall.

They should be fine. Assuming the Maoist insurgency didn't start up again.
 
Canon regarding climate change is that Alexander's been pouring global resources into mitigating it as best he could, so "climate change has fucked up India about as badly as it already has in real life" is probably a good benchmark.

That is to say, it's noticeable, but any predicted future major climate disasters that haven't already happened in real life either never happened, or were reversed due to deliberate efforts to lower global CO2 levels.
That's still no fish, water issues and existing flooding/drought cycle due to monsoon season then.

Just no massive farm collapse from climate change and removal of global trade.
 
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