Iran
While some people have assured me that Iran is two delicate breaths away from complete societal collapse, the general argument that it has survived as a coherent national entity for millennia of ups and downs, and more recently under seriously intense isolation and pressure, has swayed me. Iran shall live. Now, let's explore the implications.
I will refer to the map in my previous post.
Iran is a country of 81 million as of 2019.
They feed themselves, they have a well-educated population, and a significant local manufacturing base. They have multiple decades worth of preparation for a war of attrition against foreign invaders, and critically, the terrain necessary to make any such venture hurt.
There is significant local political pressure for liberalisation, but the government itself is not inherently viewed as illegitimate by its citizens.
That's important.
Crucially, they also share a border, and generally good relations with Pakistan.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan. The Pakistan that Russia and India just destabilized as part of their alliance. The Pakistan with a nuclear stockpile of ~160 warheads, and more in fissile material. The Pakistan that was trafficking nuclear material and expertise in the 90s.
Suffice it to say that by the time, Russia reaches their border, they WILL be nuclear-armed.
And reinforced by the remnants of the Pakistani military; the Middle East has a history of rapidly shifting alliances against outsiders. Note that Saddam sent 100 warplanes of the Iraqi Air Force to Iran during the First Gulf War, barely two years after the horrifically bloody Iran-Iraq War.
Plus, they already have domestically produced ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges in excess of 2000km.
Which puts most of the Russian heartland within reach.
Russia could break them. Russia would maul itself doing so.
This is one of those places where Alexei would need to make a deal.
And it bears pointing out that Saudi Arabia is both a longterm strategic rival and one that has actively helped the United States keep Iran down.
There is a lot of bad blood there between the ruling classes.
Russia picking a fight with the Saudis and putting the boot in would probably have them cheering on the sidelines.
Though Alexei's longerterm destabilization plans probably wont be very popular locally.
Because he'd be sticking them with the bill in the form of a large refugee crisis.
Poor Iraq is all kinds of messed up even now.
I don't see that improving in a situation where Alexei is throwing bombs and Iran is sphering the Shia areas of the country.
Kuwait has a population of around 4.5 million as of 2016.
3.2 million of that are expatriates, with only 1.3 million being citizens.
Thats not sustainable in a global collapse.
Barring foreign intervention of some sort, or their cutting a deal, they're kinda fucked. Just refugees from SA would swamp them.
On the other hand, they share no land border through which Russia could fuck them.
Though if you look at the map, they are close enough for Iran to stage some sort of intervention in the area, or for Iran-based companies to operate in Kuwait.
Saudi Arabia has a population of 33 million.
Only 37% are foreigners, of whom Indians make up 2.5 million or so according to Wiki. Demographically, they are much better off than most other Arab Gulf states. But in order to achieve market dominance over petroleum and fossil fuels?This is the one target that Alexei
must break.
And as of 2014, they imported 80% of their food.
The collapse of the US/Canada and their food baskets would have collectively done a number on them even without Alexei getting involved. Plus they have major social problems and infrastructure vulnerabilities.
But they aren't an easy hit.
They have operated imported DF-3A IRBMs since 1989, and upgraded their domestic ballistic missile manufacturing last year
The US government has obtained intelligence that Saudi Arabia has significantly escalated its ballistic missile program with the help of China, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, a development that threatens decades of US efforts to limit missile proliferation in the Middle...
www.cnn.com
So even a successful hit could cost significantly.
Unless Alexei can arrange for the Saudis to hit Iran with their missiles as they are going down.....
The Emiratis have a population of around 10 million, of whom 80% are expatriates, and no food security.
Enough said.
Is only 300,000 people and 2.3 million expats.
They should be below notice, if not for the sheer size of their sovereign wealth fund; 330 billion dollars worth is enough to rebuild their country pretty much from base principles.
Even post-Collapse, there should be enough to keep the nation...functional.
1.5 million people. Half are expatriates.
Native Bahrainis are 70% Muslim . Majority Shia population,(62% Shia) ruled by minority Sunni royal family and elites(38% Sunni).
This place goes up like a bomb once Saudi Arabia is gone.
Is already in a civil war.I don't really foresee things improving here. And Aden while a strategic location, will absolutely become a murderous posting for literally anyone sent there. Especially given how much arms and ammunition are floating in the interior of Saudi Arabia, and which can be smuggled across the Red Sea from Sudan.
Is important to Iran.
And also to India, since Iran can't build an oil pipeline across Pakistan.
Controls the other side of the entry to the Persian Gulf.
Without the support of places like Saudi Arabia and some of the Gulf States funnelling money and resources to the rebels, the Syrian rebellion falters right quick. Probably.
It's not like this is the first rebellion the Assads have crushed similarly.
Lebanon is probably of more value as a more or less neutral zone.
Think Alexander trying to replicate his original vision for New York, but with more success.
And Syria already has a lot of influence here anyway.
[...]Read More... from How Much International Aid Does Israel Receive?
israelipalestinian.procon.org
Israel in this scenario would be rather dependent on the EU for....a lot of things. Goodwill, immigrants, trade....
Nothing like developing a sudden 3-5 billion dollar hole in your defence budget at the same time you attract the attention of a hostile superpower to make you a lot more mindful about picking unnecessary fights.
Threading the needle of the peer-size Palestinean population they have systematically antagonized for decades while avoiding making the EU wash their hands off them or letting Russia wreck them will be....difficult.
Jordan is a country of only 10 million people, which is fairly internally stable; roughly 70% is Palestinean, but they are well-integrated, unlike most other ME nations. And it is neither an oil exporter nor a nuclear power. Why would Alexander care? It isn't easily accessible by land or from the Mediterranean either; any Russian forces would have to bank on moving through the Bosporus, landing in Syria, and then attacking across country.
Plus, it's a major international exporter of phosphates for stuff like fertilizers.
With the US and Canada both down for the count, China in turmoil, and Saudi Arabia the target of a transnational murder plot, that's kinda important to his allies, who have mouths to feed.
The cost-benefit ratio of going after them plain doesn't seem worth it.
Not to mention that if it gets hit by waves of Arab refugees from across the region like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, it will have problems without his lifting a finger. Malevolent neglect is what I'd expect there, to be honest; limited resources, and bigger fish to fry.
Too strategic to mess with.Yes, you can beat them.
No, it will cost you bigtime; the Turkish Army is actually fairly big and well trained by modern standards, being around 40% of the RL Russian military, and is supported by a pretty large and sophisticated industrial sector. And they can do things like mining the shit out of the Bosporus, which is only 700m wide in places. And thats without them sprinting for a nuclear program.
And while you're doing it, you're passing up other things.
Cyprus is not a Greek possession; the Republic of Cyprus is an independent country of 800,000, and a member of the European Union in its own right since 2004. While the Russia Empire might get to troll the EU, Turkey is very much not in the weight class of the EU. Something like this would be the equivalent of Turkey taking a flamethrower to relations with its biggest surviving trade partner and only surviving possible counterweight to Russia.
I would tell you outright that even an indifferently led Turkey would see the offer as the trap it is.
But in Lindtopia with all the self-aggrandizing lunatics who ended up in charge of powerful nations at the same time, who knows?
Just if you go ahead with this, expect that Turkey won't be able to play Russia against the EU. That bridge will be burned, and salted with cobalt-60.
See Africa.
No idea.
Turkey is violently opposed, but with Russia on their border, who knows if they'd have the attention to spare.
The thing is, he's staying out of North America because it's remote. He's staying out of Afghanistan because it's of limited strategic value to him and possibly also because of national trauma; the only thing worth having in that country is the mineral deposits and nobody can mine them while there's a guerilla war on.
The Middle East has resources and location too valuable for him NOT to seize, if he wishes to turn Russia from a Great Power into a global hegemon, and if he wishes to seriously influence the global oil market.
You don't need absolute control in order to control the market. Saudi Arabia does it today.
In this AU, just by eliminating the US, Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, then occupying the former Soviet republics?
He has reduced daily oil production by ~33 million bpd, from 81 million bpd to 48 million bpd, while increasing the Russian Empire's share of it from 10.8 million bpd to about 13.5 million bpd. He's gone from 12.5% to >25% of global oil production, just in direct control.
Remove Iraq's 4 million bpd as well, and we end up with the Russian Empire directly controlling around 30-33% of the world's oil production.
Indirect influence is not included here.
Besides, as portrayed, Alexei is good at appealing to people's delusions, and somehow getting them to ignore longterm consequences.
Do remember that for oil producers, high oil prices are in their own best interests.
It's entirely IC for him to murder Saudi Arabia, enter OPEC and push for controlling oil production in order to push the prices higher, while using overt and covert pressures to keep the remaining producers in line.
While in the meantime using that control both for political purposes and to fund his attempts to undermine their control of energy production entirely. And to incentivize the industrialized countries to invent, adopt and popularize alternative energy schemes.
I think Alexander, in this timeline, may have first taken over oil output, even guaranteeing some reasonable (if low) allocation to certain ailing countries he otherwise sought to undermine, and then began throttling it back year by year after he had control of it. Because securing Middle Eastern oil and then doling it out balances the fact that for a short time he has superior force of arms, and the fact that he desires to control and throttle down the usage of oil over a period of years.
Fischer-Tropsch is a thing.
And the EU is not short of coal, or the willingness to indulge in more oil exploration.
The problem is that he could quite easily push people into becoming more polluting/environmentally destructive by turning to coal or biomass.
