Point of order; this is off topic because;
of this.
Then the Golan stays Israeli.
We've already established that Alexander doesn't think it's worth getting into a shooting war with Israel. Why would he risk that over the Golan?
1) In the Middle East control over reliable sources of water and national survival are the same thing
2) Is Moscow willing to fight a war over this? Because Jerusalem is.
I don't think that you grasp the Israeli mentality. Israel is a country founded by a mix of survivors of genocide, victims of ethnic cleansing, and refugees from persecution united by a desire to never be under anyone else's power ever again. Backing down over the Golan, handing off control of a large chunk of the country's water resources, and caving to demands by a foreign power (which guarantees that there will be more demands in the future) means putting themselves into someone else's power. And not just any someone- Russia, a country with a long history of engaging in Jewish persecution. Most Israelis would regard such circumstances as leading inevitably to Israel being subject either to ethnic cleansing or genocide sooner or later. Because, in the Israeli mindset, that is what always happens eventually when Jews are under the power of non-Jews.
"If Russia can force us to give up the Golan then what's next? The West Bank? East Jerusalem and the Western Wall? Our navy? Our air force? Our nuclear arsenal? No."
Israel views almost everything through a lens of the Holocaust, the ethnic cleansing of the Middle Eastern Jews by the Muslim World, and the Persecution of Soviet Jewry. As a result it regards as threats to its national survival things that outsiders might not see the same way.
Alexander had major things to gain by facing off against the PRC, namely the destruction of a large, stable, American successor state, and the curtailing of Chinese influence outside of Asia. Had he backed down he risked China emerging as a rival superpower to Russia. What does he have to gain from the Golan that so important?
What does Syria have to offer him if he gets them the Golan that they would be freely offering him anyway without the Golan?
I'm unsure what your point is here- a desire not to get too involved in the Middle East would mean an incentive to avoid getting involved in the Israeli-Arab Conflict by creating a confrontation over the Golan.
That's a point in favor of my position.
Scenario 1:
Russia: Give the Golan Heights to Syria
Israel: We'd rather not get in a fight with the global hegemon. How about a deal? We give almost all of the Golan back to Syria, keep the bits we need to secure our water resources, Syria recognizes our existence and signs a peace deal with us, and Syria agrees to keep the Golan demilitarized. Same thing we've been offering since '67.
Russia: Nope! You give back the Golan without any preconditions.
Israel: That's never going to happen.
Russia: *goes to war*
Israel: *fights Russia with a professional, highly motivated army*
Russia: *starts winning because Israel is outnumbered and running low on supplies*
Israel: *drops a tactical nuclear warhead on Russo-Syrian forces*
Now Russia has to decide whether or not to go to a full nuclear exchange with Israel. Israel would seek to exist, but Israel has
ICBMs capable of hitting Moscow and St. Petersburg, not to mention other Russian cities. Is it worth trading Moscow for the Golan Heights?
Scenario 2:
Russia: Give the Golan Heights to Syria
Israel: We'd rather not get in a fight with the global hegemon. How about a deal? We give almost all of the Golan back to Syria, keep the bits we need to secure our water resources, Syria recognizes our existence and signs a peace deal with us, and Syria agrees to keep the Golan demilitarized. Same thing we've been offering since '67.
Russia: Counter-offer, you give the Golan minus the bits you need to secure your water resources back to Syria. Syria doesn't recognize you or sign a peace treaty with you, but Israel and Syria restart peace negotiations under Russian auspices. The Golan will be demilitarized and Russia will station soldiers there to make sure it stays that way.
Israel: No recognition of our existence, no peace treaty, and Russian troops in the Golan?
Russia: That's right.
Israel: We don't like this deal.
Russia: Do you really want to say no to the global hegemon that just took out the USA and China?
Israel: Ugh, fine. We'll do it.
Syria just got almost everything it wants in exchange for peace talks that will go nowhere
Scenario 3:
Russia: *Chooses not to stick its dick in the hornets nest that is the Israeli-Arab conflict while subtly trying to undermine Israel and figure out how to take Israel's nuclear arsenal because Alexander doesn't really give a shit about the Golan Heights*
I think scenario three is the most plausible and plays the best to Alexander's intrigue strength, scenario two isn't
impossible, and scenario three will not happen. Don't assume that in a world in the grip of economic and political chaos where the United States has been dismembered that Israel is being lead by rational, level-headed people who would blink first in a nuclear confrontation. Assume that Israel at this point is being led by ultra-nationalists, religious zealots, or a military dictatorship.