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Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%

  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
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End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
  • Threadmarks
    • The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



    The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



    The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

    And a message is left upon the table to read.

    Reevals needed on Walker's flip
    Everyone needs progressions now IMO
    Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
    Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
    Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
    Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
    Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
    Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
    Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP
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    And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

    End of Day is at
     
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  • Threadmarks
    • Wiadi said:
    FWIW, in addition to "finding someone else more sus" (which remains the gold standard, no disagreement there), rather than jumping straight to claims I think it might help more to...answer some of the questions pointed your way? Like "why the vanilla claim request again though."
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    Mostly just wants to see if anyone is going to take the bait again. Kinda wild someone actually did last time, so you know. Worth a try.

    While you're here, can I ask how many powered scum roles you are expecting?
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    Mostly just wants to see if anyone is going to take the bait again. Kinda wild someone actually did last time, so you know. Worth a try.

    While you're here, can I ask how many powered scum roles you are expecting?
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    That's like asking whether you think there'll be a doctor or not.

    Like, all of them? Maybe? But that's pretty much baseless speculation. No, not even speculation- it's WMG.
     
    Also lies I'm trying to find a reason not to vote on you, but then you have to go and attempt to bait me into oversharing…

    Stop trying to outfox me! That's my job!
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    Stop trying to outfox me! That's my job!
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    Here's a hypothetical scenario. Let's say the votes and the wagons as it currently is stays constant until the end of the day 1. I get voted out and flipped as town.

    Amongst the various voters, who do you think is likely scum and who is likely town?

    Second question, same as the above, but I flipped as scum instead.
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    Here's a hypothetical scenario. Let's say the votes and the wagons as it currently is stays constant until the end of the day 1. I get voted out and flipped as town.

    Amongst the various voters, who do you think is likely scum and who is likely town?

    Second question, same as the above, but I flipped as scum instead.
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    This question is open to everyone by the way. I want to see your thought process on what info can be gleaned from my death.
     
    If you flip scum Nani is sus. Same with whoever started a wagon on zaealix to a lesser extent.

    If you're town, anyone who said '99 is prolly town but I'm voting them anyway (me, someone who I forget)' is sus.
     
    Ori said:
    Because blocking 3 vets just for basically being vets and not because any of us have actually really done anything seems like at best a non answer, at worst casting doubt for basically no reason.
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    Mhmm, I can understand this point of view, but it's more towards the idea that if I have a roleblock I need to smartly target scum that are going to make smart decisions. At the time I really didn't have a positive scum read in any direction so if it comes to randomized selection or fellow vets than yeah I will aim at vets in a vaccum with nothing else to really go off.
    Shalmoa said:
    Not that I'd rate Cyri as very scummy for it, but I don't understand the strategy behind the question set so I assume the strategy is the question set. Activity for activity's sake
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    Correct and I've stated in the past when I do this that my fielded questions for this are either to encourage activity or to create a trail of thought. Your question was more for activity sake. Honestly Rosen's question is way better presented for my intended effect and I'm likely going to shamelessly steal this going forward...ufufufu

    Shalmoa said:
    But like, Cyri definitely should know just as well as I do that there's not really a whole lot to work with yet, and...

    In short, I think these questions are a little bit more performative than thought provoking?
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    Assuming we're in the same position as town you have just as much to work of for answers as I do for making the questions so my selection really wasn't that broad to select from, especially when half the memes I don't understand and am glazing over trying to discern positive value from the like first 10 pages.

    Wise hermit (wait weren't they someone else? did peoples name change and my confusions has increased?) makes a somewhat impressive post but frankly the basis for it is me and absum being somewhat unresponsive to exceptionally weak pushes overall. Kind of feels like they were disappointed someone else views didn't pick up traction and are trying to re-ignite it on the basis of...well I can't even really tell what the basis is other than utilizing previously stated mentions.

    Can't tell if genuine or trying to poke flames for obfuscation.

    NinetyNineLies said:
    Here's a hypothetical scenario. Let's say the votes and the wagons as it currently is stays constant until the end of the day 1. I get voted out and flipped as town.

    Amongst the various voters, who do you think is likely scum and who is likely town?

    Second question, same as the above, but I flipped as scum instead.
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    Should you be town I generally become more wary of those who avoided your wagon without good reasoning. Should you be scum I'd be more wary of late joiners to your wagon and any late secondary wagons. Which is why I generally believe there should usually be two wagons going to end of day 1.

    Urg, I woke up at 3am and kinda back on to finish my post and had to catch up somewhat. When I wake properly in a few hours I'll get started on deciphering a reasonable second wagon but for now I'll direct it here I suppose.

    [X] Vote Wise Hermit

    I want some of your thoughts on those who have joined 99L's wagon, And some thoughts towards anyone you think is just generating noise
     
    Young Pyromancer said:
    If you flip scum Nani is sus. Same with whoever started a wagon on zaealix to a lesser extent.

    If you're town, anyone who said '99 is prolly town but I'm voting them anyway (me, someone who I forget)' is sus.
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    That is the sensible answer. If I'm scum, whoever opposed the wagon is suspicious. If I'm town, whoever supported the wagon is suspicious.

    What about any outliers? Scum who hide in the wagon towards fellow scum? Scum who are deliberately avoiding the wagon they knew is against town/3P?
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    Mostly just wants to see if anyone is going to take the bait again. Kinda wild someone actually did last time, so you know. Worth a try.

    While you're here, can I ask how many powered scum roles you are expecting?
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    ... Okay, so walk me through this one. You are doing this because people actually revealed that they were vanilla last time. You think that this was a good enough event that it's worth trying to make it happen again. Why do you want people to reveal as Vanilla exactly?
     
    Cyricubed said:
    Wise hermit (wait weren't they someone else? did peoples name change and my confusions has increased?) makes a somewhat impressive post but frankly the basis for it is me and absum being somewhat unresponsive to exceptionally weak pushes overall. Kind of feels like they were disappointed someone else views didn't pick up traction and are trying to re-ignite it on the basis of...well I can't even really tell what the basis is other than utilizing previously stated mentions.
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    I want to highlight the fact that I never claimed that anyone I mentioned was scum, merely suspicious, and the most I pushed for with the results of my analysis was that those mentioned might be in the need of some increased evaluation, or, at most, more pressure for information. This is highlighted in my conclusion, which states that I cannot definitively give accurate scum or townreads as of the information provided today, and that the purpose of my post was merely provoking discussion based on the most interesting actions of today. The reasonings for me highlighting your and Absum's dodges were as follows: the 99Ls discussion was already mentioned in my post, and I've already mentioned that I do believe that our actions here may be a little bit too hasty without considering some other fellows to pressure first (excellent points by Nictis aside, as he is currently pressuing 99Ls for more information), and the fact that the Bean fiasco has already been covered with little to no responses for her on the matter.

    Indeed, the most suspicious player on that list for me was Dinomannitro, simply because of his lack of responses for anything following not one, not two, but three direct pings! Now, I don't know if this clears his name or not, but after seeing him react to my post here with a Winter reaction soon after I hit him here, in post #433, I believe that
     
    Nictis said:
    ... Okay, so walk me through this one. You are doing this because people actually revealed that they were vanilla last time. You think that this was a good enough event that it's worth trying to make it happen again. Why do you want people to reveal as Vanilla exactly?
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    [Insert Gru's plan meme here]
     
    ... Honestly, that's close enough to the only acceptable answer that I'm half tempted to switch off.

    Not doing that though.
     
    Hold on. Ahum. Please expand the following reply:

    A Wise Hermit said:
    I want to highlight the fact that I never claimed that anyone I mentioned was scum, merely suspicious, and the most I pushed for with the results of my analysis was that those mentioned might be in the need of some increased evaluation, or, at most, more pressure for information. This is highlighted in my conclusion, which states that I cannot definitively give accurate scum or townreads as of the information provided today, and that the purpose of my post was merely provoking discussion based on the most interesting actions of today. The reasonings for me highlighting your and Absum's dodges were as follows: the 99Ls discussion was already mentioned in my post, and I've already mentioned that I do believe that our actions here may be a little bit too hasty without considering some other fellows to pressure first (excellent points by Nictis aside, as he is currently pressuing 99Ls for more information), and the fact that the Bean fiasco has already been covered with little to no responses for her on the matter.

    Indeed, the most suspicious player on that list for me was Dinomannitro, simply because of his lack of responses for anything following not one, not two, but three direct pings! Now, I don't know if this clears his name or not, but after seeing him react to my post here with a Winter reaction soon after I hit him here, in post #433, I believe that
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    this shows that he was simply catching up on the thread as an inactive player, as he did take quite some time after that reaction to post his reply. Whether or not he is guilty of being a wolf, I do not know, but he certainly is guilty of being inactive.

    Now, I am not so unstudied to assume that your vote towards me assures me of your guilt; rather, it is simply another avenue to provide me with more information. And while it has not been a lot of information, I will make several observations based on the information that has been provided, and then expand on those observations with some theories and concerns that may or not be true, but will otherwise provoke discussion that may then lead to more information being revealed.

    Observation #1: Upon being questioned, your immediate response was to raise a counter-narrative that I was trying to, in some way, manipulate the argument against you after being disappointed that Shalmoa's original read was being ignored in favor of NinetyNineLives.

    1. My first concern: Why would I attempt to start a rallying cry against you based on what was, in all matters, a throwaway read? As I mentioned in my post, Shalmoa's read was made "a bit lightly," and I am not ignorant of this fact. Rather, the reason why I raised my points against you was not because I was trying to raise some sort of wagon to lynch you, but because all the pressure and discussion was based around the 99Ls fiasco at the time. Questioning your and Absum's avoidance of Shalmoa's reads provides the town with an alternative to simply death tunneling a single player who posited a horrible question as his entrance, and spreads out the pressure to others who may be being ignored in favor of the most obvious (or most obviously behaving) suspect. Indeed, you yourself have stated of the importance of such an action!

      Cyricubed said:
      Should you be town I generally become more wary of those who avoided your wagon without good reasoning. Should you be scum I'd be more wary of late joiners to your wagon and any late secondary wagons. Which is why I generally believe there should usually be two wagons going to end of day 1.
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      Never did I state that your avoidance of Shalmoa's light read was, in and of itself, the action of a wolf; merely one that was suspicious and worthy of attention. I have already stated that I was merely stating interesting actions that I had observed personally to provoke discussion (Bean, you and Absum, 99Ls), and for all I knew, your customary response to light reads might not be to defend yourself as readily as I did against Logos.

    Observation #2: Never once have you given reads or even suspicions about others involved in tonight's party, other than the ones faced with the most controversy. You voted against 99Ls when he was the obvious vote, then against Ori when she suspected your roleblocking list to be inadequate, and then against me when I suspected you of maneuvering to avoid any sort of defense.

    1. My first concern: I must admit that my defense of 99Ls is less because I am assured of his innocence, and more that I believe that the wagon we are jumping in for his lynching was started more on the matter of policy than one of suspicion; the vote started merely because of a question that would have horrible consequences if it was answered, and I see his lynching as more of a lesson that needs to be applied to a long-standing player more than a response to a genuine read. I have no say in the policy debate; as I said before, if we want to lynch him based on that, then I will raise no objections. But from the perspective of lynching him for being a wolf, I must say that while maximum pressure does have to be applied to be the most certain of his alignment after his comments, I do not believe that he will flip red when we kill him to, at the very least, follow up on the threats of our pressure.

      The reason on why this was important for me to discuss before I express my actual concern is as follows: voting for 99Ls is fine. Engaging around the discussion around 99Ls and nothing else other than defending yourself against suspicion, however, is not fine. When asked for a roleblocking list, you answered with a list of veterans rather than a list of others who might have been taking suspicious actions, or even to pressure others who you might've found to be suspicious. The discussion there has already been addressed by others, so I will not mention it here. If I was making a true scumread against you rather than giving muses for information, this would've been my first mark against you, rather than the avoidance of Shalmoa's post; but seeing as I am not doing that as of this moment, I will give you some time to correct this mistake.

    And now to briefly answer your questions, because my post is already quite long:

    I loathe to step my toes into the 99Ls discussion, both because I think that the point in such a thing is moot (He already has the most votes for his lynching and there is no threshold to be reached for him to die) and because I feel as if the discussion in question was ultimately started as a result of policy or following up on pressure rather than genuine suspicion. In other words, it is an easy vote: If you are town, you vote for 99Ls because he acted out-of-bounds in a troublesome way, and if you are scum, you vote for him because the town already agrees with their own assessment. To be honest, there is nothing that I can say that would stop the inevitable now, unless someone else steps up and takes the role of "most suspicious" from 99Ls. And indeed, if nothing else was true, he would be among the most suspicious, even if I think if the reasons for that suspicion are misplaced.

    (That and I just haven't been paying a lot of attention to it tbh, because the vote was already set in stone after his stupid comment... if everyone wants me to throw down on 99Ls fr fr I'll do it but it's so much more work and I'm tired rn)
     
    ugh. came back to the post like an hour ago after venting about my misclick but I just realized that nobody else was here to see it except for like 2 people 🙃
     
    Nictis said:
    What's your suggestion for the alternate to 99Lies?
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    Short answer: If I had one I'd be voting for them.

    Long answer: Zaealix, Nani, Wiadi, Logos, Nopeguy are who I'd look into. I'd kind of want to add Hermit and you but I'd want to see the 99Lies flip first so not really. Unsure if I would currently pick Zaealix or 99Lies if people did make that a thing, I just don't know what to do with weird poster vs weird poster. You are probably going to scumread me for being wishy-washy because you always do.

    A Wise Hermit said:
    Everyone seems to be calling me out for my lore posts and I just want to say that something seems to have been lost in the transition from yesterday to today, I made post #336 to address it somewhat because I knew that this was going to happen but let me do it again



    ^ This was the conclusion I made in my second lore post, summing up both it and the first post. All of it was me showcasing why and how someone like me might be able to make call out the setup using lore solves and why the concept of Rule 1 is a good idea for this game; it wasn't made without reason. Those reasons are A) we were talking about Rule 1 at the time and I felt the need to settle it definitively and B) Someone was doubting that knowing lore provides that much of an advantage in the game and I needed to bring out the big guns to showcase why that's not necessarily the case

    But now that that's out of the way, I want to start by bringing up this discussion a little bit more up to date: the case of NinetyNineLies. Now listen: I don't think this is our guy, at least not with the information we have right now. Why? Because it's NinetyNineLies. Bro seems confused in every game he's in, and while post #338 is bad, no doubt about it, post #345 and post #350 seem to be more calls for help more than anything else; Indeed, if it wasn't for post #338, we probably wouldn't be voting for him at all. I had a succulent line to explain most of his misbehaviors in my notes, and it was this: "99Ls feels the sharks underneath his raft shaking up the waters, but he can't see them; in his endless fear, he flails around and commits to foolish mistakes that make those sharks smile."

    Now whether we want to policy vote that or not, I'll leave it up to the vets; but for me it isn't a definitive scumread, unless someone tells me right here and now that jumping around like a scared cat and engaging in loud pessimism is his town strategy and he simply replicates his town plays when he plays wolf - which, to be honest, might be a smart play if you have that reputation

    If I had to press one person right here and now, it would actually be Absum. Why? Because in post #284, Shalmoa scumread him, even if just a bit lightly, and bro hasn't responded to the allegations since... in fact, his next major piece of content was him asking other people for their scum / town reads in post #355 - he slipped right on by just as Rule 1 discussion was heating up, and used it to look busy once it was over and a thread soft-reset hit after meme-time wound down. Now I don't think this is a scumread just yet, but it is an interesting move with convenient timing

    Cryicubed is kind of in the same place: Shalmoa hit him with the "please go" in post #284 too and so did Ori in post #358, but he also hasn't defended much either other than a humorous post #322, with him stating that "This is why I don't do much Day 1" in post #365 after giving his infamous Roleblocking list and giving the easy vote for 99Ls, with the rest of his posts being based around that 99Ls vote... with his current vote being against Ori, who just happens to be the person who called him out in her post. Makes it even weirder that Absum defended him in post #363, but I admit that it might just be a coincidence, especially on day 1...

    Dinomannitro got hit with -Rosen's gun to head in post #368 AND 99L's post #353 and has stayed radio silent this entire time; a bit weird, yes, but the excuse of "it's a holiday" is still as relevant as ever, unfortunately... Hitting him again here @dinomannitro6



    If there's one person I would love to hear from it would be Bean, since she kinda dropped that she could double vote, waited for discussion to fill up the thread, refused to elaborate, and then left. I don't think it's a scumread either (she could just be enjoying the holidays) but definitely someone to keep in mind. For anyone who's unaware This was my post about Clown Bean

    I can't say anything about Nanimani, I don't think he's said anything since meme-time wound down but someone can correct me on that and I'll whip back around to it... actually, he has, but it also has to do with the 99Ls discussion so that's null for me, it's an easy vote for wolves to distract with but it's also a reasonable policy / sus vote for town

    Byzantine seems to be just giving his reads so I can't say anything solid about that until I see some of his posts whip by in real-time...

    YP's going to be a whole 'nother massive wall of text considering his reputation but I'm pretty sure everyone's already covered what I have to say there

    Hugh_Donnetono hasn't said anything at all ever since yesterday; might be time-zones but something to think about. Hitting him here @hugh_donnetono

    I think for everyone else I'll do it like this: instead of me making this wall of text larger, anyone ask me for my opinions on anyone and I'll do it... I don't think I can scumread or even townread anyone definitively right now, especially with my lack of community knowledge, but I can definitely walk back and talk about some moves... tbh there's 21 players in this game and not a lot of people are active posters, so my guess is that there's at least one wolf who's staying low and coasting by, hense my hits
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    Starting more discussion is town-positive and all, but this is really weak imo? That it also includes a defence for 99Lies makes it come across as scum flailing. I should consider it NAI but if 99Lies flips scum I'll be looking here.

    If you want to know why it's weak: Placing me as your most suspicious ("but it's not a full scumread" doesn't change that) over not responding to an accusation explicitly based on nothing and on my bedtime (???) is really bad when my response to Wiadi asking me to explain and the sudden Zaealix vote are right there. The Cyri section is better, but even then it's weird to say he wasn't defending himself while noting the vote on Ori, which was part of defending himself (via asking Ori to explain what was bad about the rb choices).

    NinetyNineLies said:
    @Nopeguy @Absum @Zaealix Assuming I would flip scum, what would that say about the scum team? Who would be the most suspicious after my flip?
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    Most suspicious: A Wise Hermit, Nanimani, Wiadi, Logos, me, Nictis. Was originally going to to say Nani+Wiadi or Hermit+Nictis for scum team but I don't think any of those would be that obvious so uh I guess I suck too much for connections? Maybe something like Hermit+Wiadi? Any 4th (and maybe 5th?) members would probably be low posters.
     
    busy for a bit but also very confused at the tripling down on infoleaking? talk more later
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    Mostly just wants to see if anyone is going to take the bait again. Kinda wild someone actually did last time, so you know. Worth a try.

    While you're here, can I ask how many powered scum roles you are expecting?
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    Ok but you realize that my reasoning for outing vanillas actually did have a purpose right compared to whatever this is in comparison.
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    If I say that I have a purely town-beneficial role, are y'all gonna jump off my wagon?
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    Meaningless, also as Byzantine mentions this comes close to implying you're not Town.
    NinetyNineLies said:
    Mostly just wants to see if anyone is going to take the bait again. Kinda wild someone actually did last time, so you know. Worth a try.

    While you're here, can I ask how many powered scum roles you are expecting?
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    ?????????
    NinetyNineLies said:
    That's fair. What about you? Do you have any info you are willing to share?
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    ?????????????????????????????

    NinetyNineLies said:
    [Insert Gru's plan meme here]
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    idk wtf this means but I am assuming it's "make myself a really easy target to see who jumps on it" or something

    I have never vibed with this shit because it's always just confusing af to me and I can't get shit out of it. It's difficult enough to get reads without that.
     
    NinetyNineLies said:
    Clearly the best solution to a sinking ship... is to shatter the hull and float on a plank!

    Let's see...

    @Nopeguy @Absum @Zaealix Assuming I would flip scum, what would that say about the scum team? Who would be the most suspicious after my flip?
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    First part of the question, what does that say about the scum team? I figure that says scum is down a man.
    Perhaps more importantly I'd expect, for balance reasons, for you to be paired with veterans who in theory were expected to try and defend you, but given the uniformity of the vote against you I'm inclined to say they left you to hang but uhh.
    Honestly the nature of your vote being more policy rather then solid suspicion says that the best defense is to probably give people time to doubt rather then overtly defend you. The latter reeks of connection, the former lets town eat itself, and town trends towards self destructing if too much is said by town and scum hides in low posting.

    Now, do I think I look suspicious? Maybe more so for you specifically reaching out to me and two others which seems about right in number for a scum team then without you doing that. Especially given my earlier gaffe of calling you suspicious without actually voting you at the time.
    *shakes head*
    A part of me sees this as an attempt to go down swinging via throwing up false links to get Town to suspect actual town voices, if Scum. If Town…
    Victim of being the first one to bleed in a pack of sharks.
     
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