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The Perfectly Normal High School: A Slice of Life Quest! (Defunct)

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Well, it does make sense to maintain infosec, at least for the moment. We don't know how the Foundation will respond to Shinohara (NSCP-003) being effectively free from containment, much less how they might respond to a rights group for anomalous objects. There's possibly, maybe even likely, a significant "conservative" faction in the Foundation that could potentially see our existence as a threat to one or more of their core principals, and we want to make sure that we meet with them on good terms and establish a good working relationship before someone on either side lashes out and starts a blood feud.

In order to do that, we want to control when and where they see us operating. We want to ring their doorbell, instead of having our own rung, because the Foundation is strong and we are weak, and we already know in the meta and suspect IC that they're... Less scrupulous about keeping to ethical behavior than most. So we want to make sure that we meet on our terms, where we can protect ourselves from any potential aggression on their part, and make a good impression, and not accidentally drop in on them in the middle of a mission and accidentally get in a shootout, or have Mikado nark on us before we've even got real core principals and tell Maeda that we exist.


Personally, I suspect Maeda and Ichiro would both be fine with a rights group, as long as we don't put people in danger (which I think we all intend on doing) and act rationally. But they may not be in the majority, or there may be other elements at play, and so it's still in our best interest to make sure they're not forced to do anything that might get Shinohara a cell or Silas and Yumika pen'd. Best case scenario, we observe for a little while, judge it's safe to announce ourselves, and send a diplomatic commission to contact the Foundation and tell them what we're about, and establish open communications. Worst case, we're engaged in a shadow war with a conspiracy that has survived an uncounted number of literal apocalypses, which will be at least fun for those of us on this side of the fourth wall. If that IS the case, then we can cross that bridge, but for right now I'm concerned about the Foundation finding out about the SELF while it's still in vitro.
 
Karnewarrior said:
IIRC 7mi is NSCP-001
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I sure do not recall anything of a sort?

I mean, it'd be fine if we invented our own notation for Entities, then we could number them however we wanted in the order we encountered them, but NSCP is an existing notation by the Foundation. They don't name their files (that have apparently existed for a while now) after whatever Silas sees first, second and third.

All we know is that there exists an NSCP-002 which may or may not be transmitted by the movie (or by creating Federations that blab about the Foundation to their classmates). That's about it.
 
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Except that we know around the time the movie had been contained, the rest of the Foundation personnel were concerned about finally finding an SCP. Except 002 is... The second? So they shouldn't have been so surprised.

Unless they forgot 001 existed.

Also, it's been implied Nanami has been in containment for a reasonably long period of time. Certainly, Maeda has known about her since before the movie, unless I'm severely misdating the scene between her and us with the bread. It'd be pretty weird for Maeda to be both an O-5 and willing to know about an anomaly without at least recording it, which would mean a number.

It's not from our perspective that Hana would be the third discovered, but the Foundations. (Nanami>Apollyon Lost>Hana) compared to (Big Sister>Nanami>Hana).
 
Karnewarrior said:
Except that we know around the time the movie had been contained, the rest of the Foundation personnel were concerned about finally finding an SCP. Except 002 is... The second? So they shouldn't have been so surprised.

Unless they forgot 001 existed.
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Are you referring to this, per chance? Taking 'nothing to contain' to mean that they haven't discovered anything yet? Makes sense, I suppose.
We haven't detected anything anomalous and dangerous enough to warrant containment since we became... since the Flip.
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But that raises the question why they aren't including Apollyon in the list of stuff worth containing when they have the entry for it. Hmm, maybe because the movie itself isn't an NSCP, but a vector of its propagation, and they don't have any 'infected' on hand?
 
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The movie seems unable to be contained with their current level of resources, yes. The relevant file is here. But Nanami was known to us and the Foundation before hand, and she's pretty easily contained for a very-nearly-keter class NewSCP. They obviously already have her under containment, and I suspect that's been the case for a while now. It's just she's such a strong antimeme they can't remember she exists.
 
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Event Mechanics
  • Informational
    • I have some good news! I'm being bought out be Electronics Arts

    Heheh. Sorry. I've been wanting to make that joke for... a whole week now. Anyway.

    After revisiting my tenure as a middle school student attending Algebra, rediscovering just how much I hated Algebra, and frantically going back and forth with @Nevill to confirm the statistics and data I scrounged up using AnyDice and my dusty TI-84, I've finally come up with a Dice roll scheme for events that actually sort of works. Now, let me break down the Event system a little bit...

    Firstly, it's important to note that the main purpose of this system is to provide a little bit of randomness to events, while at the same time maintaining that the success or failure of an event will usually rest entirely on Silas's character. I want to make it clear that making the choice to take an event will always have an element of risk outside of your control, kind of like real life. Anyway. From now on, every event will have a difficulty rating. They will be organized as follows:

    DC1: Basic events. The kind of stuff that people do everyday. Things like going out to eat platonic lunch together, or passing along information in a relatively calm environment.
    DC2: Stressful events. Events that require a bit of planning to work out. Attending a festival, watching a movie, going on a date, fundraising, and investigating things and/or people fall into this category.
    DC3: Very stressful events. Generally, these kinds of things are once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Examples would include singing competitions, stage performances, confrontations with antagonistic individuals, stake-outs/stalking, professional v-sports, and acting on a conspiracy.
    DC4: Dangerous events. The kind of stuff that might get people hurt and end relationships if things go badly. For example: Stealing things from secured locations, trying to disrupt city services, inciting a mob, going on a date for the first time, attempting to subvert an authority figure, trying to learn a friend's secret, apologizing to Maeda, etc.

    (For reference, the RikuRiku festival is going to be a DC2 event.)

    For each level of difficulty, a number of die will be rolled, each of them a d100. Depending on what number the dice returns, a modifier will be applied to the Success Threshold of that event, according to these parameters:

    1-2: Insight
    3-20: Very Positive
    21-70: Positive
    71-80: Neutral
    81-98: Negative
    99-100: Wildcard

    Insight: +30 to ST. A situation manifests to force two individuals come to an unprecedented understanding, or else to allow the main character to learn something important about someone else. The result, despite being a net positive, will usually shake up the status quo. Any iterations of Insight that occur after the first time Insight has already been rolled will revert to Very Positive.

    Very Positive: +10 to ST. Environmental factors play heavily to the main character's favor.

    Positive: +5 to ST. Environmental factors play slightly to the main character's favor.

    Neutral: +0 to ST. Everything is normal, and I am sad.

    Negative: -25 to ST. Due to factors entirely outside your control, something forces the event to go poorly.

    Wildcard: ST growth or decline dependent on how sadistic I feel that evening. Basically, if I want, I can choose to invalidate the roll by giving it a -1000, or else screw with the event by introducing something that'll muck up it's original intentions. Don't fret too much about it, though! There's only, like, a 2% chance of this occurring on the first run! Any iterations Wildcard that occur after the first time Wildcard has already been rolled will be rolled again.

    So, what does this mean?
    The odds of getting a negative result are, comparatively, rather small. But even rolling negative once will greatly effect the Success Threshold. And, the more times dice are thrown, the more likely it will be that a die that returns a negative result will be cast... see what I'm coming at, here? Because higher difficulty events require more dice, there's a greater chance a negative die might get thrown in there. In fact, by difficulty DC4, there's a greater than 50% chance that the overall effect on the Success Threshold will be negative, oh what fun!

    Tl;dr
    Events will have dice which create modifiers for that event's Success Threshold. More difficult events will have more dice thrown, and the more dice are thrown, the more likely they are to return a negative result.

    In simpler terms: More difficult events are harder to accomplish.
     
  • Informational
    • Vote locked!

    EVENT
    [X] [Event] Defer to Yumika
    -[X] We actually wanted to speak about the Mystery we brought up to you a few days ago. We wanted to have a good plan for it.

    AFTERSCHOOL ACTIONS
    [X] [AS] (Event) Visit the Hypermall with friends to celebrate RikuRiku.
    [X] [AS] Work at DreamerLuci's Subforum (+¥????)
    -[X] Make sure to set a timer before you begin to make sure you can get to the Hypermall on time.

    Hmm... that seems to be just about right. Time to roll!
    [X] [-]Try messing around with her nonexistence.
    (Phew, something inconsequential. Would you believe it if I told you I was terrified we might get a -50 completely by accident? That woulda given me a heartattack. Sheesh.)
    LuciDreamer threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: EVENT DICE 1 Total: 74
    74 74
    LuciDreamer threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: EVENT DICE 2 Total: 35
    35 35
    LuciDreamer threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: Subforum Total: 91
    91 91
    LuciDreamer threw 1 50-faced dice. Reason: - Total: 19
    19 19
    LuciDreamer threw 1 100-faced dice. Reason: EVENT DICE Outcome Total: 25
    25 25
     
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    Alright, Neutral and Positive. Subforum is...not going to go well, and we have MYSTERY DICE (*spooky ghost noises*), which we seem to have rolled...OKish on?
     
    LuciDreamer said:
    So, what does this mean?
    The odds of getting a negative result are, comparatively, rather small. But even rolling negative once will greatly effect the Success Threshold. And, the more times dice are thrown, the more likely it will be that a die that returns a negative result will be cast... see what I'm coming at, here? Because higher difficulty events require more dice, there's a greater chance a negative die might get thrown in there. In fact, by difficulty DC4, there's a greater than 50% chance that the overall effect on the Success Threshold will be negative, oh what fun!
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    Erm... If we exclude "Wildcard" from that table (as we cannot evaluate its influence on the event) and always treat "insight" as "very positive" to not bother ourselves with the clause "first insight is insight, second is VP" then the expected value of such a roll is zero (with insights it is slightly more). With more rolls it is still (obviously) zero (and anydice supports that, AnyDice). I don't think that it is correct to say that the event becomes harder with more rolls. While it is true (and sounds scary) that there is more than slightly more than 50% chance of negative modifier with DC4, it is also true that there is more than 40% chance of +10 or better.
     
    How did you guys get those numbers? I ran a binomial PDF for a dc4 challenge and got:

    Binompdf(4, .2, 1) + Binompdf (4, .5, 2) = 78.46% for a +10 (or equivalent for two positives)
    And
    Binompdf(4, .17, 3) = 38.88 for a -25


    As a side not the expected counts for each dice modifier is +.4 and without the +30 it is zero.
     
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    BinomPDF is the probability that there will be X successes in n trials if there is a probability p of success for each trial.
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    What exactly do you think a Binompdf(4, .17, 3) represents, in layman's terms? I am unsure why you mentioned it.

    Furthermore, the probability to roll 3 successes out of 4 tries with a P probability is 4*(1-P)*P^3, so the chance to get 3 negative outcomes would be 1,63%.
     
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    Nevill said:
    What exactly do you think a Binompdf(4, .17, 3) represents, in layman's terms?
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    A binomial series, with 4 "trials", each with a probability of 17% of finding the "right" result! looking for instances where there are three of the specified result.

    Nevill said:
    Furthermore, the probability to roll 3 successes out of 4 tries with a P probability is 4*(1-P)*P^3, so the chance to get 3 negative outcomes would be 1,63%.
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    Yes. The math I put was an incorrect mix of odds of one success and odds of three failures. Both results end in 38.88%
     
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    Halowed02 said:
    A binomial series, with 4 "trials", each with a probability of 17% of finding the "right" result, looking for instances where there are three of the specified result
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    Exactly! So what confuses you? :)

    Halowed02 said:
    Binompdf(4, .2, 1) + Binompdf (4, .5, 2) = 78.46% for a +10 (or equivalent for two positives)
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    I mean, this sum has no meaning. One number is a chance to roll +10 once, and only once in four tries; the other is a chance to roll +5 twice in four tries.
    Their sum is gibberish, however, and can not be representative of a chance to roll +10, since it has to be modified first with the understanding that all other rolls need to be zeroes (10% chance for each roll)

    So the probability of a +10 outcome on 4 dice is...
    10 0 0 0
    0 10 0 0
    0 0 10 0
    0 0 0 10

    P = 4*0.2*0.1^3

    5 5 0 0
    5 0 5 0
    5 0 0 5

    P = 0.5*(3*0.5*0.1^2)

    0 5 5 0
    0 5 0 5
    0 0 5 5

    P = 0.1*(3*0.1*0.5^2)
    ...0.0158, or 1,58%.
     
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    Nevill said:
    Exactly! So what confuses you? :)


    I mean, this sum has no meaning. One number is a chance to roll +10 once, and only once in four tries; the other is a chance to roll +5 twice in four tries.
    Their sum is gibberish, however, and can not be representative of a chance to roll +10, since it has to be modified first with the understanding that all other rolls need to be zeroes (10% chance for each roll)

    So the probability of a +10 outcome on 4 dice is...
    10 0 0 0
    0 10 0 0
    0 0 10 0
    0 0 0 10

    P = 4*0.2*0.1^3

    5 5 0 0
    5 0 5 0
    5 0 0 5

    P = 0.5*(3*0.5*0.1^2)

    0 5 5 0
    0 5 0 5
    0 0 5 5

    P = 0.1*(3*0.1*0.5^2)
    ...0.0158, or 1,58%.
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    But the negative calculation is numerically correct yes?
    I certainly hope it is, I kinda like not being a failure at math.
    Assuming it is: (Incomplete because my calculator died)
    At DC 4, Odds of
    Only Positive: 24.01%
    One Positive:
    No Positive:
    Only Neutral: 0.04%
    One Neutral: 29.16
    No Neutral: 65.61%
    Only Negative: 0.105%
    One Negative: 38.88
    No Negative
     
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    Now, see, this shit is why my quests all run on GM fiat. :p

    Y'all putting way too much thought into this. And not nearly enough thought on how we're going to get Hana and Nanami and Yumika to agree to a harem! :V
     
    Karnewarrior said:
    Now, see, this shit is why my quests all run on GM fiat. :p

    Y'all putting way too much thought into this. And not nearly enough thought on how we're going to get Hana and Nanami and Yumika to agree to a harem! :V
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    Sorry Karne, but Lock said there was an above 50% chance of a -negative modifier on DC4 and a 40 % chance of +10 or more

    Those numbers are kinda extreme honestly. So I want to check them.
    To negate a negative, we need

    One Insight and two non-negitives, (0.02*0.82^2)
    Three Very Positives (.18^3)
    Two Very Positives and one positive (.18^2*.5)

    Requirements are certain, calculations are not. @Nevill ?

    And since Nevill calculated that odds of +10 are 1.58% for any one instance, a 40% of +10 net seems unlikely
     
    Karnewarrior said:
    Y'all putting way too much thought into this. And not nearly enough thought on how we're going to get Hana and Nanami and Yumika to agree to a harem! :V
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    Somehow, I don't see Silas agreeing to a harem. Since he's the lynchpin in our interactions with the world, that's a problem.
    (But on the bright side, we'd learn more about Hanamura!)
     
    Karnewarrior said:
    Y'all putting way too much thought into this. And not nearly enough thought on how we're going to get Hana and Nanami and Yumika to agree to a harem! :V
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    I am a nerd, don't judge my hobbies!! :tongue:

    Also, no Hanamura, no buy!
    ...would dating Reina qualify as a forbidden love if she is only our sister in a side Universe? :eyebrow:
    Halowed02 said:
    To negate a negative, we need [...]
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    Well, the magic is that you do not negate a negative. If you roll one, you eat it like a champ.
    On the other hand, you have a whole ~50% chance to not roll one, and the rest of the results are all neutral-to-positive, so isn't that nice? :V

    If you want to know how probabilities work at DC4, put this in AnyDice and press 'Calculate':
    X: 4d{30:2, 10:18, 5:50, 0:10, -25:18, -1000:2}
    output X
    As you see, the majority of results land either in 'pretty good' (15;30), 'somewhat unpleasant' (-15;-5), 'you are fucked' (-45;-35), and 'you are proper fucked' with a ~8% chance of a Wildcard thrown in there somewhere.

    'Don't go on dates', is the moral of this story, obviously. :V
     
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    The real question here is should we interpret Wildcard rolls to be positive or negative? Because that has to take into account LuciD's feelings at the time: for a (non-gag) harem, that's probably a negative, but I'd figure for a roll like the one we just made for forming the SELF the wildcard would be basically a crit success, because there's a lot more interesting and varied narratives that can be told with a success on that roll than a failure. Maybe Yumika feels amazingly impressed by Silas' initiative and decides to finally come clean about her own creepy Mystery, which she's been keeping secret all this time because of [spooky here]! Or maybe we almost get caught by Maeda, but Rakuyama sings a song that calms her down and we now have the chance to interrogate her or something.

    Not that having things blow up in our face isn't fun, but for certain things it's probably best to consider a Wildcard as a positive, because doing otherwise would be limiting storytelling and thus far LuciD's shown quite the appreciable amount of skill at writing, even if he's slow.
     
    If it helps any, the code that we came up with for AnyDice was this:

    loop N over {1..4}{
    X: Nd{30:2, 10:18, 5:50, 0:10, -25:18, -1000:2}
    output X
    }

    Where -1000 just means Wildcard, and the rest of the numbers correspond to their respective modifier names.

    Oh, and fudge, I forgot to actually roll for the outcome in the event, let me do that real quick...

    Karnewarrior said:
    Y'all putting way too much thought into this. And not nearly enough thought on how we're going to get Hana and Nanami and Yumika to agree to a harem! :V
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    I may joke about hating math, but to be honest, playing with these dice statistics has been a really fun nostalgia trip for me. So uh... yeah. :D
     
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