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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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-Rosen said:
Ultimately it is your choice to make it so the Jackdaws cannot win in this scenario, which is expressly against the rules. No amount of indirect causation can change the fact that it's the direct actions that matter.
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I am confident that this plan will never lead to me taking a rules-breaking action, since again, my partner would have literally negative incentive to renege on the deal under these conditions.
 
I should also note that by your proposed standard your own threats to directly aid the Jackdaws - rather than seeking your own victory - would be equally disallowed, @-Rosen.
 
Wiadi said:
I should also note that by your proposed standard your own threats to directly aid the Jackdaws - rather than seeking your own victory - would be equally disallowed, @-Rosen.
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My suggestion is also made in a case where it is already physically impossible for Crows to win. This argument is completely invalid.
 
So, I'm going off to sleep now. Please don't burn down the thread while I'm away.
 
-Rosen said:
My suggestion is also made in a case where it is already physically impossible for Crows to win. This argument is completely invalid.
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No, it's entirely physically possible for Crows to win even if there's only one of them left. Consider the following scenario:

Going into the final night, the Crow has one Shiny Thing and each Jackdaw has another. The Ravens steal both Shiny Things from the Jackdaws but leave the Crow's alone, hoping to bait the Jackdaws into wasting a theft on the empty-handed Raven. The Jackdaws do waste a theft on the empty-handed Raven, but the Crow successfully finds a Raven holding a Shiny Thing and steals it, getting to 2 and winning.

And no, it's not implausible in this scenario that the Ravens would withhold a theft, considering the mindgames in play. Imagine that the Jackdaws each steal from a different Raven as posited in the previous scenario, but all three Ravens stole Shiny Things. This means that the Ravens deterministically cannot win, and it's a plausible move for the Jackdaws because (a) they can't openly coordinate (without letting the Ravens easily play around them) and (b) if the Crow targets anyone but the two Jackdaw-targeted Ravens, which it well might, then the Jackdaws win.

This is just one example, but it and all others are equally rendered non-viable by the Crow openly coordinating its theft with the Jackdaws, who can then (assuming honesty on the Crow's part) play around it.
 
And of course in that scenario the Crow has the same incentives for honesty as I do in my deal; namely, that dishonesty after striking a bargain of that nature would render future such bargains in future games ineffective.
 
Crows also have the incentive that working with ravens and crows doesn't actually require ravens out themselves. It's easier, simpler, has no real room for betrayal and ultimately more advantageous.

You've done wonders with a bad situation, but you ultimately lack the bargaining power you need to sell this.
 
Shadell said:
Crows also have the incentive that working with ravens and crows doesn't actually require ravens out themselves. It's easier, simpler, has no real room for betrayal and ultimately more advantageous.

You've done wonders with a bad situation, but you ultimately lack the bargaining power you need to sell this.
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I mean, it's not actually more advantageous, is the thing. Having two kills allied rather than opposed is valuable, we can control the vote together already, and Crows & Jackdaws both steal after Ravens so we're equally inconvenient in the endgame.
 
It's not blackmail or game throwing. As @Wiadi 's partner (hi, potential deniability isn't worth not being able to help negotiate) I see no problem with this. I'll do you one better, thouh, @Rayday11 .

you have 2 choices. You work with us, and we cooperate back. We spend our actions however you feel leaves the ravens with the best chance of winning, save lynching a jackdaw. If you want the Magpie alive at day 6 as endurance? Fine. You want both of us to waste our shots on the same person? Fine. We're favored in endgame somewhat anyway, but this gives you a lighting chance at winning, which the crows will not give you once they do not need to. You have both my and Wiadi'a precommitment here.

or. You can go against use. Whichever of us survives will kill you in the night, and you'll be stuck with 2 ravens against 4+ confirmed towns. Theres'a enough lynches left to bring your team down to one member and kill off the jackdaw, not that it matters since with crows going after you you will have a guaranteed loss.

Make your pick.
 
Those of you who are crows, please hammer QTesserect if you can vote now. @TheMaskedReader, you're in thread and haven't voted yet. We're one off if you vote. @ItzNarcotic on the off-chance you're around.

@Rayday11 don't vote. Plausible crows can easily lock in a hammer at the moment, and all we need to shut down QT's pressure is just ravens not noticing. There's no way they can punish you if they're not sure whether you saw the thread. All I ask is that Ravens go to sleep a bit early tonight. If you have a player you're confident is hidden, have them join the wagon as well so we can hopefully end this. Don't respond, and jackdaws can't really accuse you of turning them down.

We need 2 votes to end this. Jackdaws are the biggest threat to all of us. We can go back and forth in circles, and argue ourselves down, or you can simply not engage with a deal you don't need to actually pretend to notice. The votes are on QT.
 
Shadell said:
Those of you who are crows, please hammer QTesserect if you can vote now. @TheMaskedReader, you're in thread and haven't voted yet. We're one off if you vote. @ItzNarcotic on the off-chance you're around.

@Rayday11 don't vote. Plausible crows can easily lock in a hammer at the moment, and all we need to shut down QT's pressure is just ravens not noticing. There's no way they can punish you if they're not sure whether you saw the thread. All I ask is that Ravens go to sleep a bit early tonight. If you have a player you're confident is hidden, have them join the wagon as well so we can hopefully end this. Don't respond, and jackdaws can't really accuse you of turning them down.

We need 2 votes to end this. Jackdaws are the biggest threat to all of us. We can go back and forth in circles, and argue ourselves down, or you can simply not engage with a deal you don't need to actually pretend to notice. The votes are on QT.
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@Wiadi if I die today, there is no possible path to victory for us. Please then precommit to killing a raven tonight (I suggest @Rayday11 because theyre confirmed) so that their incentives align with working with us. It doesn't matter if they don't publically work against us, follow through anyway.

@ComiTurtle @Tykan @OriginalName @NSMS @1KBestK if any of you are ravens, I advise you get off while you consider so you don't accidentally lose the game for ravens.
 
They can pretend that it's a plausible crow hammering but we don't have to care, that only applies if they can get us to work with them after and, well, with only 1 jackdaw we can't.
 
Same goes for magpies, BTW: there's no way you're pulling out a win when only crows are left, and if we kill a raven as part or revenge then that's what will almost inevitably happen
 
QTesseract said:
If you're a crow, staying on me is a very reasonable choice. The ravens getting elimated as a threat is good for you.
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They won't be. You're exaggerating the number of ravens we'll get and the disadvantage to which ravens will be. We don't know 2 of the ravens, we have a magpie left in the sack that can tie up most crow pecks if ravens don't cooperate with shutting the magpie down.

QTesseract said:
Same goes for magpies, BTW: there's no way you're pulling out a win when only crows are left, and if we kill a raven as part or revenge then that's what will almost inevitably happen
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If you're the magpie and you swap after this, you will be voted tomorrow, or 100% be outed to ravens, who'll pocket you for easy thefts in a game you literally would not be able to win anymore. Swapping right now is suicide. Staying leaves you a decent shot at hiding still and ravens will happily lead the charge against you tomorrow if you do swap, since they'll know you're not a raven.
 
Like, the most you can do at night is kill Rayday, which leaves the ravens silent (though with Rayday having plenty of time to out a magpie that jumps ship for sure), but that's 2 unknown ravens, which isn't actually that much worse at endgame. Crows probably vote non-ravens for the remaining days regardless, we aren't actually more likely to hit ravens at that point than we are now.

This doesn't actually hurt ravens terribly, when Rayday's already indicated they were taking their own lower value at endgame into account when going public.
 
Shadell said:
They won't be. You're exaggerating the number of ravens we'll get and the disadvantage to which ravens will be. We don't know 2 of the ravens, we have a magpie left in the sack that can tie up most crow pecks if ravens don't cooperate with shutting the magpie down.



If you're the magpie and you swap after this, you will be voted tomorrow, or 100% be outed to ravens, who'll pocket you for easy thefts in a game you literally would not be able to win anymore. Swapping right now is suicide. Staying leaves you a decent shot at hiding still and ravens will happily lead the charge against you tomorrow if you do swap, since they'll know you're not a raven.
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You have 4 confirmed town. That means you can mechanically solve for the ravens, especially with night announcements. Even if you couldn't, though, and only solved the jackdaw, criws steal after ravens. Theyre still completely fucked.
 
Shadell said:
Like, the most you can do at night is kill Rayday, which leaves the ravens silent (though with Rayday having plenty of time to out a magpie that jumps ship for sure), but that's 2 unknown ravens, which isn't actually that much worse at endgame. Crows probably vote non-ravens for the remaining days regardless, we aren't actually more likely to hit ravens at that point than we are now.

This doesn't actually hurt ravens terribly, when Rayday's already indicated they were taking their own lower value at endgame into account when going public.
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2 ravens mechanically cannot win unless town throws.
 
QTesseract said:
@Wiadi if I die today, there is no possible path to victory for us. Please then precommit to killing a raven tonight (I suggest @Rayday11 because theyre confirmed) so that their incentives align with working with us. It doesn't matter if they don't publically work against us, follow through anyway.
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Agreed. @Rayday11 consider yourself warned.
 
ItzNarcotic: crow
Shadell
Rayday11: Raven
Comiturtle
NSMS: Magpie
TheMaskedReader
1KBestK: Crow
QTesseract: Jackdaw
Tykan
OriginalName
Wiadi: Jackdaw
-Rosen: Crow


If I can do this simple solving, so can the crows. There's no way 2 ravens can hide among 4 town, not for 3 days, and even if they get a promise from town that only the magpie will be lynched from day 4 on and no mechanical solving will occur, and town follows through, they can just have the group target within itself night 6 and all 3 confirmed crows pick a different raven, and just like that the ravens lose. There's no way out for them except us.
 
Oh, yeah, also:

[X] Peck NSMS

If the Ravens want to play ball I'm willing to vote as directed but otherwise I'll leave this here just in case one or more Crows decide they want to cooperate after all. Offer's still on the table if you guys decide you'd rather have us on your side than the Ravens, though admittedly with my kill committed I lose a good deal of leverage.
 
To counter: I am willing to sacrifice myself to a Day 4/5 vote (contingent on NSMS being Magpie, which looks pretty possible here) should the Ravens agree to work with the Crows and kill QTesseract Today. That gives the Ravens one less confirmed Crow to work against by endgame, allowing them fairer odds to slip through.

But mostly I want off this wild ride so pls
 
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