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[Mafia] A Murder of Crows

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Wiadi said:
As with Shadell's earlier offer, I hereby precommit to rejecting this offer and any duplicates thereof should the Ravens strike a deal with me. I do not intend to allow you to sow discord in this manner.
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Too bad you don't have a choice -- you either win by leaving the Magpie alive, win by keeping a Crow who will end up working with you in the end alive, or by not killing, decreasing the likelihood of a deal working out in the first place.
 
-Rosen said:
Too bad you don't have a choice -- you either win by leaving the Magpie alive, win by keeping a Crow who will end up working with you in the end alive, or by not killing, decreasing the likelihood of a deal working out in the first place.
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Specifically, not killing increases the likelihood that the Crows will be able to screw the Ravens out of a win entirely, and even maintain a chance of winning themselves, so any deal you can possibly make with the Ravens won't be able to work out.
 
Wow, way to skip all the metaphorical knives that were being mentioned earlier and just put a gun to my head @-Rosen.

Sorry @Wiadi, but the other Ravens have made a decision and as things stand the Ravens cannot take you up on your offer.
 
Wiadi said:
I will not "agree to disagree" on the documented text of my bargain with the Crows, no.
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Well we're not going to convince one another, so the other option is you argue pointlessly with empty air while I do nothing. :V
 
NSMS said:
Well we're not going to convince one another, so the other option is you argue pointlessly with empty air while I do nothing. :V
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Can you put your vote back on QTess? We're committing to Jackdaw hunting again

If QTess does not flip Jackdaw, we just kill Wiadi on Day 4 to eliminate the realistic threat the faction posts.

Definitely be prepared for two deaths on Night 3 though (I would assume I'm fried at least after construing that scenario where the Ravens cannot accept a deal without just losing).
 
-Rosen said:
Can you put your vote back on QTess? We're committing to Jackdaw hunting again

If QTess does not flip Jackdaw, we just kill Wiadi on Day 4 to eliminate the realistic threat the faction posts.

Definitely be prepared for two deaths on Night 3 though (I would assume I'm fried at least after construing that scenario where the Ravens cannot accept a deal without just losing).
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Ah, I'd forgotten I needed to do that. Also, high five! I'm betting I'm number two on their kill list! :cool2:

[X] Peck QTesseract
 
-Rosen said:
Too bad you don't have a choice -- you either win by leaving the Magpie alive, win by keeping a Crow who will end up working with you in the end alive, or by not killing, decreasing the likelihood of a deal working out in the first place.
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Incorrect. I can simply refuse to accept the aid offered by the surviving Crow, and precommit to doing so.
Rayday11 said:
Wow, way to skip all the metaphorical knives that were being mentioned earlier and just put a gun to my head @-Rosen.

Sorry @Wiadi, but the other Ravens have made a decision and as things stand the Ravens cannot take you up on your offer.
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In light of the above, I would suggest you reconsider this choice.
 
Admittedly this does require you to take me at my word, but on the flipside, betraying you here would destroy any credibility I would have making such offers in future - and as I plan to continue playing on this site, winning one game would not be worth the long-term cost to my available strategies.

I should also include a clarifying note for general purposes: if I strike a deal through a secret channel, then deals struck subsequently in public may not be trustworthy. This is, for example, what happened in the end of Archfiend. However, you will note that I opted not to betray Comi, even when doing so would have cost me nothing and earned me a more singular victory. And of course unless this game is exceptionally Bastard you can trust that I have no secret lines of communication here.
 
Also @Rayday11 to reiterate, if there are other such commitments which would make the Ravens more comfortable taking my deal, please feel free to suggest them. I am willing to constrain my future play if necessary to broker this alliance.
 
Wiadi said:
Admittedly this does require you to take me at my word, but on the flipside, betraying you here would destroy any credibility I would have making such offers in future - and as I plan to continue playing on this site, winning one game would not be worth the long-term cost to my available strategies.
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While I might be able to trust you, you're not the only one we'd need to trust. We'd have to be able totrust your partner because if we accepted the deal and your partner said no then that would have resulted in burning just about every possible bridge with the Crows or your partner would break away from the plan and kill one of us during the night. We'd also need to be able to trust the Crows to not follow -Rosen's plan with or without your approval to screw over us Ravens out of spite.
 
Rayday11 said:
While I might be able to trust you, you're not the only one we'd need to trust. We'd have to be able totrust your partner because if we accepted the deal and your partner said no then that would have resulted in burning just about every possible bridge with the Crows or your partner would break away from the plan and kill one of us during the night. We'd also need to be able to trust the Crows to not follow -Rosen's plan with or without your approval to screw over us Ravens out of spite.
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If you accept the deal provisionally, my partner will need to reveal to accept on their own behalf. If my partner breaks from the plan after agreeing to it, I commit to doing everything within my power to ensure the Ravens win this game. Furthermore, it is impossible for the Crows to meaningfully follow -Rosen's plan if both Jackdaws commit to rejecting it, as we can simply refuse to coordinate with them on night thefts. As for burning bridges should my partner refuse, consider that the Crows cannot afford to alienate all non-Crow factions in that manner - they are already openly hostile to us Jackdaws and to the Magpie, so in their current position they need the Ravens at least provisionally on-side. Additionally, as insurance, I am willing to commit to shooting a confirmed Crow tonight should you accept the deal and my partner then decline it.
 
Sorry that's not how it works. Crows can still commit to trying to screw the Ravens without coordinating with the Jackdaws.
 
-Rosen said:
Sorry that's not how it works. Crows can still commit to trying to screw the Ravens without coordinating with the Jackdaws.
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Sure, but you'll have no power with which to actually do so, since revealed Ravens + Jackdaws control the day vote and can refuse to accept your aid at night. In what specific way do you propose to benefit us without our consent?
 
Wiadi said:
Sure, but you'll have no power with which to actually do so, since revealed Ravens + Jackdaws control the day vote and can refuse to accept your aid at night. In what specific way do you propose to benefit us without our consent?
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Night 6 is the last phase in the game. I've already outlined how either one Crow remains, or the Magpie remains, and in either scenario the chances of the Jackdaws winning are either guaranteed or pretty damn likely due to the uncertainty of the last Crow's action.
 
-Rosen said:
Night 6 is the last phase in the game. I've already outlined how either one Crow remains, or the Magpie remains, and in either scenario the chances of the Jackdaws winning are either guaranteed or pretty damn likely due to the uncertainty of the last Crow's action.
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I don't see how the Crow can make the Jackdaws win if the Jackdaws don't take the help. The Crow can try to steal from the Ravens but they'd have to guess correctly to do so.
-Rosen said:
Game throwing
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Nah. I'm just setting up a situation such that my partner reneging on the Raven deal would itself become game-throwing, thereby preventing such a situation from ever transpiring and removing the issue of possible rules violations.
 
Wiadi said:
I don't see how the Crow can make the Jackdaws win if the Jackdaws don't take the help. The Crow can try to steal from the Ravens but they'd have to guess correctly to do so.
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Except it still makes the Raven's chances significantly worse.

Wiadi said:
Nah. I'm just setting up a situation such that my partner reneging on the Raven deal would itself become game-throwing, thereby preventing such a situation from ever transpiring and removing the issue of possible rules violations.
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I'm pretty sure your outline is just game throwing on your part. Don't go pushing this off on your teammate just because they might not agree with your plans lol
 
-Rosen said:
Except it still makes the Raven's chances significantly worse.
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It also makes things harder on the Jackdaws because then we have to guess (a) which Raven(s) will end up with Shiny Things and (b) which of them the Crow will target (since we'd be committing to refusing to accept coordination from the Crow).
-Rosen said:
I'm pretty sure your outline is just game throwing on your part. Don't go pushing this off on your teammate just because they might not agree with your plans lol
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If they don't agree and neither do the Ravens then nothing happens. If the Ravens agree but my partner doesn't then my partner stays silent and all I've agreed to do is shoot a confirmed Crow tonight, which hardly costs us the game. If the Ravens agree and my partner says they agree but then defects, that becomes game-throwing because I've already guaranteed that I will work to make the Ravens win in that scenario - which means that the cost of betrayal is too high to possibly justify it, allowing the Ravens to trust my partner regardless of personal character assessments.

In short, my plan is not game-throwing because nobody will have both ability and incentive to produce a state of affairs wherein it would become such.
 
Wiadi said:
It also makes things harder on the Jackdaws because then we have to guess (a) which Raven(s) will end up with Shiny Things and (b) which of them the Crow will target (since we'd be committing to refusing to accept coordination from the Crow).
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Both sides are hurt by it, but the Ravens are hurt significantly more by it. This isn't a difficult conclusion to make, you guys literally steal last.

Wiadi said:
If they don't agree and neither do the Ravens then nothing happens. If the Ravens agree but my partner doesn't then my partner stays silent and all I've agreed to do is shoot a confirmed Crow tonight, which hardly costs us the game. If the Ravens agree and my partner says they agree but then defects, that becomes game-throwing because I've already guaranteed that I will work to make the Ravens win in that scenario - which means that the cost of betrayal is too high to possibly justify it, allowing the Ravens to trust my partner regardless of personal character assessments.

In short, my plan is not game-throwing because nobody will have both ability and incentive to produce a state of affairs wherein it would become such.
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No, your plan is game-throwing because you're essentially blackmailing your teammate into a situation where you say THEY are game-throwing by not following your plan. It's really shitty and I will continue to call you out on it just on principle.
 
Ultimately it is your choice to make it so the Jackdaws cannot win in this scenario, which is expressly against the rules. No amount of indirect causation can change the fact that it's the direct actions that matter.
 
-Rosen said:
Both sides are hurt by it, but the Ravens are hurt significantly more by it. This isn't a difficult conclusion to make, you guys literally steal last.
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Eh. Not really sure it's that obvious - we fare better assuming perfect play, but that's not a valid assumption (especially in a situation as chaotic as the final night will be) so I think the Ravens would still have a good chance in this scenario.
-Rosen said:
No, your plan is game-throwing because you're essentially blackmailing your teammate into a situation where you say THEY are game-throwing by not following your plan. It's really shitty and I will continue to call you out on it just on principle.
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I'm blackmailing my teammate into specifically not reneging on a deal they commit to. If they don't like the plan they can just stay quiet if the Ravens accept it.
 
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