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In Thunder's Echo (Legend of the Five Rings Quest)

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Bastur2 said:
Maybe they want to get some concessions from the Ikona.

They could be aiming for the beaden pass blockade as a secondary objective camouflaged as a primary one

That because they know that the blockade wouldn't last, so they would manure as if they want it to happen, so they can get some concessions from the Ikona and the lion as a whole.
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That's a possibility I considered, but I figured that they would probably be more likely to pursue such a strategy at the Lion Clan's main court (which IIRC is the Ikoma's main castle at the moment?), rather than a relatively minor one such as this.
Then again, it's quite possible that their activities here could simply be a side-theatre of their overall diplomatic/political strategy.

Bommelom said:
Not sure how exactly the Crane would manage to make the Matsu close the pass. They might not care for the Lion's economy (that's for merchants to worry about), but Ketsui has no reason to think closing the pass would hurt the Crane, which makes it hard for them to trick her into into closing the pass, and no reason to listen to anything they tell her.
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That's a good question, and I have to admit I don't really have a good answer for that. The best thing I can think of would be that they might try to goad Katsui into lashing out in general, and basically shutting down trade through the pass in anger.
Though I suppose they could also be trying to do so through indirect means; get enough favors and influence with as many of the other delegations here as possible, so they they can exert indirect pressure on the Matsu to shut down trade.
 
Maybe the Matsu don't have to close the pass. However if you get the Scorpion, the Crab, the Crane and the Mantis to all boycott the pass, you essentially make it economically worthless, or at the very least worth much less. The Mantis are rich enough that they could subsidise ocean going trade to a degree, and the Crane would recover much faster if all this trade was going though their port.
Getting the Matsu to harass and tariff Scorpion and Crab trade would help to further make the sea route more appealing, even without being so drastic as to draw Imperial displeasure.
 
@Kelenas - I'm pretty sure that "influence the Matsu" is not part of the Crane plan here. Their lack of a gift was basically an open declaration to everyone that they didn't care about friendly influence on the Matsu, and that's not really something they can step back from. They also all froze up when Bayushi Kimiko did her thing the first day - direct confrontations with the Lion and pushing things too far don't look to be things they're all that comfortable with. If nothing else, we'd have seen the Kakita with a barbed comment or two, and that hasn't happened. Also, the Matsu have very little that they might want - while they *might* be able to pull together some sort of scheme to bargain with the Lion in an adversarial way from a position of power by holding some threat over their heads, they could likely get more of what they want in other ways.

Still, the idea that they're trying to route trade away from Beiden Pass... that's entirely possible. Their allies among the Mantis would be *delighted*. (Hurt the Scorpion, hurt the Lion, *and* increase the sea trade? Absolutely!) It would also be quite damaging to our clan, unless we got some major concessions out of it. (Where would those concessions come from?) Even with the concessions, the fact that we were in on it would damage relations with the Lion pretty severely, which would hamper all trade through the pass in the future. Costly in the long term, even if not in the short term. We'll want to talk with the Crab sooner rather than later, I think. We may also want to talk with some of the clans on the other side of the mountains, as they have input in how their trade is routed as well - and possibly pass word on to Hanzo, as contact with the Unicorn and Dragon.
 
Sirrocco said:
Still, the idea that they're trying to route trade away from Beiden Pass... that's entirely possible. Their allies among the Mantis would be *delighted*. (Hurt the Scorpion, hurt the Lion, *and* increase the sea trade? Absolutely!) It would also be quite damaging to our clan, unless we got some major concessions out of it. (Where would those concessions come from?) Even with the concessions, the fact that we were in on it would damage relations with the Lion pretty severely, which would hamper all trade through the pass in the future. Costly in the long term, even if not in the short term. We'll want to talk with the Crab sooner rather than later, I think. We may also want to talk with some of the clans on the other side of the mountains, as they have input in how their trade is routed as well - and possibly pass word on to Hanzo, as contact with the Unicorn and Dragon.
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Well, from the Crane's point of view, the ideal situation would probably be for the Matsu to insult us and declare they're going to be hampering us, without this being (visibly) a Crane plot. They honestly might not have needed to do anything considering how poorly we normally get along.

Then when the Scorpion are looking for an alternative to save our economy, the Crane offer the use of their ports and the Mantis their ships, possibly at favourable conditions. Not having any other good choice we take it, giving the Crane wealth and a lever to influence us, the other most court focused clan.

However, sending someone like Kimoko is something of an oddball move from the Scorpion. People generally expect us to try and sneak in through the back door, not pound on the front gate and call the enemy daimyo out. Which is exactly what the Matsu would respect. So the possibility of Matsu/Scorpion relations thawing took them by surprise and sent them scrambling.

Edit: I'm also assuming that every Crane and Mantis delegation is working towards some coherent goal, so various things that might not be reasonably pulled off from just here, might be going on elsewhere. The Kyuden Bayushi winter court would certainly be an important target in this case.
 
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Calling it now:

The mysterious invitation is actually from the Crabs.

"NOBODY EXPECTS STEALTH HIDA!"
 
Sirrocco said:
@Kelenas - I'm pretty sure that "influence the Matsu" is not part of the Crane plan here. Their lack of a gift was basically an open declaration to everyone that they didn't care about friendly influence on the Matsu, and that's not really something they can step back from. They also all froze up when Bayushi Kimiko did her thing the first day - direct confrontations with the Lion and pushing things too far don't look to be things they're all that comfortable with. If nothing else, we'd have seen the Kakita with a barbed comment or two, and that hasn't happened. Also, the Matsu have very little that they might want - while they *might* be able to pull together some sort of scheme to bargain with the Lion in an adversarial way from a position of power by holding some threat over their heads, they could likely get more of what they want in other ways.
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Not necessarily direct influence, but they might be trying for indirect influence. Ie, convincing the various delegations to put pressure on the Matsu in this or that direction. I'll admit that my theory is a bit thin in this regard, though.
Still, I can't help but feel that it would be a very good idea to keep a close eyes on the Crane, with how fast and aggressive they're moving.

As for their reaction on for the confrontation between Kimiko and Ketsui, my impression was less that they froze up, and more that they were caught severely off guard, and trying to hide this fact from everyone else by putting on an appearance of being relaxed.
Now that I think about it, it's possible that at least part of the reason they're moving so fast is because we - or rather Kimiko - caught them so severely off guard, and they're trying to get back on track, or move their own goals forward before there's a chance that she might upset things.

Still, the idea that they're trying to route trade away from Beiden Pass... that's entirely possible. Their allies among the Mantis would be *delighted*. (Hurt the Scorpion, hurt the Lion, *and* increase the sea trade? Absolutely!) It would also be quite damaging to our clan, unless we got some major concessions out of it. (Where would those concessions come from?) Even with the concessions, the fact that we were in on it would damage relations with the Lion pretty severely, which would hamper all trade through the pass in the future. Costly in the long term, even if not in the short term. We'll want to talk with the Crab sooner rather than later, I think. We may also want to talk with some of the clans on the other side of the mountains, as they have input in how their trade is routed as well - and possibly pass word on to Hanzo, as contact with the Unicorn and Dragon.
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The Mantis opinion on something like this I already pointed out in an earlier analysis, so I'm not going to disagree with you on that one. :p
As for the clans on the other side of the mountain, the way I see it the one that would really be affected if trade through Beiden Pass would be shut down would be the Dragon; the Unicorn have their own pass to the west, from what I remember, and the Phoenix have a coastline and probably some port towns through which they could channel trade. So, if the Crane could broker some sort of agreement between the Dragon, and either the Unicorn or Phoenix (or, even better for the Crane, both), they could solve this issue.

However, like I said; we should be careful not to get too biased and see everything through the lenses of our own duty at this court.

Maybe we should take a step back, and consider all other possible reasons why the various delegations in general might be here, then see if there are any observations or hints that either support or disprove those theories?
For example, what's the "normal" missions that courtiers get sent on? Things like negotiating marriage alliances, political agreements, that sort of thing? Or preventing such things from coming to pass?
 
Wade Garrett said:
Calling it now:

The mysterious invitation is actually from the Crabs.

"NOBODY EXPECTS STEALTH HIDA!"
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Thats why they're so stealthy.

Guard: Sir, I samurai are infiltrating the camp.
Commander: What? I knew we couldn't trust those Scorpions!
Guard: Actually I think they're Crabs.
Commander: Crabs . . . Crabs never sneak anywhere now get back to watching out for Scorpions and Ninja.
 
Ok, so let's think about what the Matsu have, and what someone would want them for:

-Control of Beiden Pass. They have it. We control the other end, but don't have the equivalent of Shiro Matsu, thus our control can be much more easily contested. Us and the Crane have a big interest in it's economic potential for our rebuilding. Probably the Crab as well. But it's important enough to have some importance to everybody.

-They are very warlike. So someone looking to start a war, might target the Matsu as someone who can be goaded into violence. Conversely someone looking to prevent war will try to find ways to keep them in check. The Pheonix are probably here for that. So are we, more or less. Otomo, too. Crane might want Lion to make war on someone else and get chastised by the Emperor for it. If so we'd be considered a prime target, unfortunately. There are also powers other than the clans. Such Bloodspeakers and other servants of evil who wouldn't want a strong peaceful Empire.

-A rift in the Lion. It's obvious by now that the Matsu aren't happy with the Ikoma being in charge, and they probably don't like Toturi all that much either. Someone looking to destabilise the Lion could do so by influencing the Matsu to disobedience. The Lion have made a lot of enemies, foremost amongst them the Crane. This also fits Otomo's modus operandi. The Dragon and Pheonix probably wouldn't, being too involved in navel gazing and rebuilding respectively. The Crab? Maybe, but I think they prefer to not mess with internal politics unless it impacts their ability to defend the wall. Us? Maybe later, but currently we want to keep things peaceful.

Can anyone think of anything else?
 
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Quick thought: We need a reputable non-scorpion chaperone if we go. There was something gnawing on my mind for a while and I just realized what it was: While not entirely too likely, it's possible that this is a setup for framing us for something that they will do at the tea house, and well, we are Scorpion, no one will really believe our word if we claim to be innocent. It might not be enough to cause straight up action against us, but it can certainly make things harder for us on the court.
 
Jaertin said:
Can anyone think of anything else?
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All those are fairly good points.

I think it might be a good idea to also consider some more non-specific goals some of the other courtiers here might have, though. Ie, potential goals or reasons for presence that don't necessarily revolve around the Matsu/Lion, or their specific situations.

- Negotiating a simple marriage-alliance between a Matsu family, and one of their own Clan's, as a means of improving relations, or for some other form of political gain.
- - Alternatively, a mission to prevent something such as the above, because it could threaten the interests of their own clan.

- Solving some sort of dispute, like whether this or that village/forest/river/mine/whatever belongs to the Lion or the [insert neighboring clan], in their favor.

- Negotiating some sort of specific trade-agreement (for example, copper from the Matsu for iron from the Crab).

- A diplomatic version of "showing the flag", so to speak; simply being present at the court, representing their clan, and possibly taking advantage of opportunities that offer themselves.


There's probably more, but those are the ones that I can easily think of without getting too specific. What do you think?
 
Bastur2 said:
@Sirrocco could you put something about l this possibility on your plan?
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Don't think that really applies here. Possibly in an update or two, though - especially if it is the Ikoma. That's the sort of suggestion they might respond well to, as it implies a degree of "your Clan and mine against the world", and the Ikoma are probably pretty desperate to get any allies they can.

Kelenas said:
As for the clans on the other side of the mountain, the way I see it the one that would really be affected if trade through Beiden Pass would be shut down would be the Dragon; the Unicorn have their own pass to the west, from what I remember, and the Phoenix have a coastline and probably some port towns through which they could channel trade. So, if the Crane could broker some sort of agreement between the Dragon, and either the Unicorn or Phoenix (or, even better for the Crane, both), they could solve this issue.

However, like I said; we should be careful not to get too biased and see everything through the lenses of our own duty at this court.
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Beiden Pass is only useful for goods that start on the one side and move to the other side. Given that, I think it worthwhile to consider the disposition of those on both sides of the barrier. That's all I was saying. Also, it's a good reason to try to work on our relationship with Asako Tani - especially worthwhile if the Crane really are looking to hork us over (and by default, the Crane like a good "hork the Scorpion and the Lion" plan almost as much as the Matsu do).

I understand your caution on this thing... but Beiden Pass itself (and its relationship with the Lion) pretty much *is* the big deal about this Winter Court. Certainly, thinking about what other objectives there might be is valuable, but the trade through Beiden Pass is a lot of what people are here for.

Felius said:
Quick thought: We need a reputable non-scorpion chaperone if we go. There was something gnawing on my mind for a while and I just realized what it was: While not entirely too likely, it's possible that this is a setup for framing us for something that they will do at the tea house, and well, we are Scorpion, no one will really believe our word if we claim to be innocent. It might not be enough to cause straight up action against us, but it can certainly make things harder for us on the court.
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Not as much an issue as you think. This is pretty much governed by the Sincerity skill, and Scorpion get away with this sort of thing *all the time* by use of said skill. Also, bringing along anyone will bork the deal. We could decide not to go, if we were overly concerned, but bringing along a chaperone would be something of an insult, and suggest an adversarial position
 
Felius said:
Quick thought: We need a reputable non-scorpion chaperone if we go. There was something gnawing on my mind for a while and I just realized what it was: While not entirely too likely, it's possible that this is a setup for framing us for something that they will do at the tea house, and well, we are Scorpion, no one will really believe our word if we claim to be innocent. It might not be enough to cause straight up action against us, but it can certainly make things harder for us on the court.
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Hm... on one hand, I can see your point; something like that isn't necessarily an uncommon tactic/plot.
On the other hand, it just seems to be way, way too early for direct and heavy handed methods like that. If nothing else, I would expect for the necessary set-up to require some fair amount of time. I mean, we're the Scorpion, and supposedly have the best intelligence network and whatnot, and yet it seems like we're currently more or less on our own when it comes to things like that, and will have to set up our own network in place. Based on that, I rather doubt that any of the other visiting clans would be able to set something like that up on such short notice, and the Lion generally aren't the type to do such things.
 
Kelenas said:
Hm... on one hand, I can see your point; something like that isn't necessarily an uncommon tactic/plot.
On the other hand, it just seems to be way, way too early for direct and heavy handed methods like that. If nothing else, I would expect for the necessary set-up to require some fair amount of time. I mean, we're the Scorpion, and supposedly have the best intelligence network and whatnot, and yet it seems like we're currently more or less on our own when it comes to things like that, and will have to set up our own network in place. Based on that, I rather doubt that any of the other visiting clans would be able to set something like that up on such short notice, and the Lion generally aren't the type to do such things.
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Ah - a good point... and the fact that they already have an understanding with the proprietor (if that is indeed true) provides a decent bit of support for the idea that they're Ikoma. Who else is going to both have the savvy to want to set something like that up *and* put in the effort to do it in Shiro Matsu of all places (and then successfully pull it off)?
 
Sirrocco said:
I understand your caution on this thing... but Beiden Pass itself (and its relationship with the Lion) pretty much *is* the big deal about this Winter Court. Certainly, thinking about what other objectives there might be is valuable, but the trade through Beiden Pass is a lot of what people are here for.
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I know; I'm just concerned that we might be getting tunnel vision because of the pass, while ignoring the fact that Shiro Matsu is also the seat for the Matsu family in general, with all of the importance in terms of family and clan politics that implies, and thus possibly miss important political or diplomatic maneuvers or opportunities.
The Unicorn, for example, has very little reason to care about the pass one way or the other, since they have their own in the west of the mountain chain, with land on both sides of it. So, they're probably here for something else. The Dragon also aren't the most mercatile clan, I believe, so they are quite possibly here for other reasons as well.

I threw out some ideas in that regard in the post here; nothing really concrete (yet), but I figure some brainstorming might be helpful.
 
Wasn't the Dragon more of a religious pilgrim, who just happened to be at this location, and, in the absence of an actual Dragon delegation, defaulted to being the effective representative?

While it's possible that he does in fact have orders for this Winter Court and will probably still be looking out for general Dragon interests, I wouldn't be surprised if he either doesn't really have concrete goals for this Winter Court or is here to pursue more personal ones.
Especially considering how the Dragon is currently with less aim than ever before and actually kind of lacks overall Clan goals right now.
 
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The Dragon presents as just a religious pilgrim. He might ahve specific gals in support of overall Clan strategy. He might not. It's possible that his only Clan-support goal is "The Matsu might get offended if we send *nobody*. Do us a favor and spend the winter in Shiro Matsu, okay?"

Regardless, there's a very real chance, whatever his goal set, that he has little to no real influence in the Dragon. It's not assured, but it's likely.
 
Really makes me wish we'd gotten Hanzo's opinion on the Dragon, based on his conversation with him. IIRC he talked with him both in the bath and after the gift ceremony? Would have to go back and check...
 
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