Plan of action looks good to me, overall.
[x] Sirrocco
Though,
@Sirrocco; think we should see if we can get some of Pale Oak's heimin retainers to keep an eye on the Crane delegation? As fast as they're moving, they might try to get in contact with someone else in the time we're away, and it might not be a bad idea to try and stay informed. Then again, he might not have people with suitable skills available, and we haven't really had time to try and build our own network, here.
In regards to the speed at which both the Crane and Lion act; I'm wondering if the two are perhaps connected. Possibly with the Lion (assuming it is an Ikoma we got the message from) acting so fast in regards to the Crane's moves.
The Crane already started fairly aggressive, what with blatantly insulting the Matsu right at the start of the court. They also went and immediately got in contact with the Crab (the previous day, after the Gift-giving ceremony was over), and with us today. Our meeting with Chen in the tower was likely an accident, but Mariko taking advantage of it definitely wasn't.
Crab and Crane are traditionally enemies, and Scorpion and Crane have been rivals or even enemies on the political stage more often than not, so it could be the Crane trying to minimize hostilities while they're still weak and in the process of rebuilding, but it might be noteworthy that both Scorpion and Crab are located south of the Spine of the World Mountains, and heavily rely on Beiden Pass for their trade.
One possible scenario I could imagine, would be that the Crane might be trying to goad the Matsu into, effectively, closing Beiden Pass for merchants, while at the same time trying to convince us and the Crab to channel our trade through the Crane's ports in the south and north of the mountain range. Possibly, they might also try to do the same with the Phoenix and Dragon, though both of them being smaller than us or the Crab could make them a lower priority. Furthermore, if they can bring us on their side in this matter, they would gain our reputed skills in the courts to help them outmaneuver the Lion.
The benefits for them would be threefold; for one, they would effectively create an economic cordon around the Lion; the Lion might still trade with the neighboring Clans for some things, but pretty much all of the major trade that would normally through Beiden Pass and the Lion's lands would instead move around it, which would no doubt hurt the Lion's economy a fair deal.
At the same time, a lot of that trade would instead flow through the Crane's lands and ports, which in turn would help to stimulate the Crane's economy, and hasten the speed with which they can rebuild and recover from the damages the Lion's armies inflicted upon them.
Last, but certainly no least, it would be an undeniable and potent demonstration of the Crane's political power. "See, we can isolate and hurt you in your own court" makes for a rather powerful show of force; very useful as a potential deterrent against other Clans trying to take advantage of their weakened state (of which they might consider us one), as well as a demonstration that they still make for very useful political allies. However, there'd obviously be a certain danger that they could push the Lion *too* far, and provoke them into declaring war, despite the consequences that would likely have.
How the other clans would fit into this...
- The Mantis would most likely be extremely happy, for the reasons I outlined in an earlier analysis. Increased ocean going trade means more work, and thus more profit, for both their traders and merchants, due to the increased amounts of cargo transported, and also for their shipwrights, since it'll most likely increase the demand for cargo vessels.
- Of the remaining Clans, none of them seem to like the Lion much at the moment, if at all. Economically, it would depend on whether the Crane can make it worthwhile, for the most part. The Phoenix might object, since it would go against their goal of everyone getting along and rebuilding, but they might accept if the Crane can convince them that the Lion needs to be taught a little lesson this way and/or isn't truly hampered by this, but the Crane also might simply bring some political pressure to bear on them. The Crab normally dislikes the Crane, but they also dislike the Lion apparently. It's quite possible that the Crane approached them first because they estimated them to be one of their bigger obstacles, and wanted to get a headstart on working to overcome that.
- Last, there is us, which is where the big hole in my theory lies (that I can see); we control the other side of Beiden Pass, and any trade that goes through it also passes through our lands by default. This also means that anything that hurts the Lion's trade through it, by extension also hurts us. Which means the Crane would either have to offer us some sort of compensation that makes up for all of the trade we'd lose that way, in which case starting to connect with us early would give them more time to bring us around to their point of view, or they need to prevent us from seeing what they're doing before it's too late for us to do something about it, in which case their early aggressive move on us might be meant to keep us off balance.
As a potential alternative, the Crane might be aiming to achieve some sort of political dominance in the Matsu's own court similar to what I outlined above, but more with the goal of forcing some sort of concession from the Matsu, though I'm not entirely certain which. Most of the things I can come up with would most likely be better handled at more important castles with the Lion's Clan leadership directly.
The only possibility that makes sense to me at this moment, is that the Crane might be trying to wrangle political favors and concessions out of the other clans, here. They very well know how important the pass is for trade, so by gaining a lot of leverage with which to influence the Lion and the tariffs they place on the goods from different clans, or how merchants from different clans are treated, they could indirectly gain leverage over those Clans that heavily rely on the pass for their trade, such as ourselves, the Crab, or the Dragon. However, their opening move at the Gift ceremony would be extremely detrimental for this, so I think that theory of mine is rather weak.
I'll note, though, that I am most likely heavily biased by our own mission here, and trying to see how the other Clans and their goals and actions might relate to that, so it would probably be best to take this analysis of mine with a pinch of salt.
I'm not sure we should be asking around about the teahouse. I think, one usually doesn't go to one alone? We're not going to leave with anyone (and some Lion will definitely record and report our movements), and we haven't been here long enough to arrange to meet someone there. One option would be to take Hanzo with us when we leave, but split up once outside the fortress.
I think Sirrocco's idea is less to ask about it specifically, and more about entertainment in general, which should make our meeting look less conspicuous to others since they'd just assume we'd be seeking out one of the locations we were told about.